Table of Content

25 January 2023, Volume 32 Issue 1

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

BOPS Cooperation Strategy in a Supply Chain with Competition and the Corresponding Influence on Traffic Congestion Reduction

ZHANG Xumei, ZHA Xiaoyu, ZHOU Liping

2023, 32(1):  1-8.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0001

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This paper studies the BOPS cooperation strategy in a supply chain consisting of one manufacturer with an online direct channel and one offline retailer. By establishing and comparing the game model in different cooperation strategies, this paper analyzes the optimal BOPS cooperation strategy in the supply chain, and further explores the impact of BOPS cooperation on traffic congestion reduction. Our results show that BOPS cooperation would mitigate double marginalization as well as intensify price competition in the supply chain, thus BOPS cooperation is not always beneficial for the supply chain. Only when consumers’ preference for online channel is low and the offline hassle cost is high enough, both the manufacturer and the retailer can benefit from BOPS cooperation. In other cases, the manufacturer could design a transfer payment contract to facilitate the BOPS cooperation with the retailer. Besides, by adjusting demands of different channels, BOPS cooperation can lead to less online orders while maintain the profits of supply chain members. It indicates that BOPS cooperation would lead to a decreased online logistics volume and then generate a positive effect on traffic congestion reduction.

Research on Supply Chain Decisions Consider Micro-sized Supplier’s Profit Rate of Cost under Random Yield

MAO Min, LI Qiyang, WEI Hang, BAO Zhentian

2023, 32(1):  9-14.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0002

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Due to the limitation of production capacity and capital, the goal of small and micro suppliers may be to achieve the optimal profit rate of cost, so as to improve their viability. Differs from previous studies, this paper studies the decision-making problems for a single-period supply chain consisting of a micro-sized supplier and a retailer. Faced with risk of random yield, the micro-sized supplier make capacity decisions with the goal of profit rate of cost maximization. And the retailer determines the optimal order quantity based on profit maximization. We find that the micro-sized supplier’s profit rate of cost is affected by the cost weight coefficient of its own unit production cost and unit shortage cost, as well as the retailer’s profitability. There will be three situations for the micro-sized supplier: loss, reasonable profit and excess profit. Moreover, the retailer adopts different ordering strategies can also have different impacts on the micro-sized supplier’s profitability. Under the conservative(active) ordering strategy, whether the retailer have a profit depends mainly on whether its unit net profit can make up for the unit shortage loss (related to its profit margin). This paper provides useful management insights for micro-sized suppliers and other supply chain members in capacity/order decision-making.

Evolution Analysis of Blockchain Technology Investment Based the Quality and Safety of Agricultural Supply Chain

HUO Hong, ZHONG Haiyan

2023, 32(1):  15-21.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0003

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Aiming at the uncertainty of the quality and safety of agricultural products, and the positive external effect that the introduction of blockchain technology can improve the credibility of the quality and safety traceability information of agricultural products, evolutionary game model was set up that Agricultural product producer and processors choose block chain technology for quality and safety investment. The replication dynamic and evolutionary stable strategy was analyzed, and system simulation was carried out. The results show that the enterprises’ investment in blockchain technology is directly related to the market demand growth rate after investment, which changes with the market demand growth rate, and various stable equilibria of evolution occur in the system. The subsidy mechanism of the government can solve the “free rider” problem of nodal enterprises in block chain technology input and encourage supply chain enterprises to invest in block chain technology for quality and safety. The research results have some implications for the formulation of government strategies and the investment of block chain technology by enterprises.

Research on False Data Injection Attack of Smart Grid Based on Multi-objective Bi-level Programming

ZHANG Peng, XIONG Yaqin, JIAN Jie

2023, 32(1):  22-26.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0004

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Compared with the traditional power grids, the smart grid introduces advanced information and communication technologies, which can significantly improve production efficiency and power data processing efficiencyof enterprises. However, due to the loopholes in traditional state estimation, smart grid is vulnerable to false data injection attacks.Existing researches only pursue the maximization of power system operation cost or the minimization of attack resources, and do not consider the balance between them. Based on this, this paper considers to establish a multi-objective bi-levelplanning model for smart grid false data injection attacks, where multi-objective represents the balance between the power system operating costs and the attack costs, then combined with the numerical results based on IEEE 14 bus example, the corresponding strategy of false data injection attack is given according to the different attack tendency of the attacker.

Study on the Two-stage and Multi-objective Planning of Electro-thermal Coupled Integrated Energy Systems

HE Yongping, LIU Xiaomin, XIAO Yanli, GOU Ruixin, WANG Baoyou

2023, 32(1):  27-33.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0005

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Multi-energy coupling system is an important development direction of distributed energy supply mode in the future. In order to realize the reasonable planning of the electrothermal coupling energy supply system, and to promote the coordinated development of energy supply and consumption of economy and environmental protection, a two-stage planning optimization method for the integrated energy system of the electrothermal coupling energy system is proposed. The first stage of the model is to realize the reasonable planning of the electric and thermal coupling integrated energy system under the goal of optimal investment and environment. The second stage is to optimize the operation of the planning results based on the operating characteristics of the equipment to obtain the optimal operation plan of energy system, and verify the rationality of the planning plan from multiple indicators. The NSGA-II algorithm is used to obtain the Pareto solution set of the model, and the multi-criteria compromise optimization method is used to decide the optimal configuration plan from the Pareto solution set. The simulation results show that the proposed two-stage multi-objective integrated energy planning method can achieve the economic and environmental protection of the energy supply system.

Research on the Multi-objective Optimization Dispatching Model and Algorithm of Emergency Supplies under Emergency Events: A Case of COVID-19

SHAN Zidan, SHENG Chenhui, WANG Xiaoyan, HAN Jiao

2023, 32(1):  34-40.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0006

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The scheduling of emergency materials is highly uncertain and dynamic under emergency events. Whether the trans-regional scheduling plan of emergency materials can be formulated scientifically and reasonably has an important impact on the effective implementation of emergency rescue. Taking the COVID-19 case in Wuhan as an example, considering the factors such as time difference, regional dispersion and capital consumption of trans-regional dispatching of emergency materials, in this paper, a three-level trans-regional dynamic material scheduling network model with different material varieties and different transportation modes under multiple periods and the time window constraints with soft and hard requirements is established and an adaptive particle swarm optimization algorithm with the mutation operation and dynamic variable inertia weight is designed. The effectiveness and feasibility of the algorithm are verified by the real epidemic data. The result of research shows that under the principle of ensuring the timeliness, fairness and economy of emergency supplies, the trans-regional dispatching of materials can alleviate the serious shortage of medical materials in Wuhan, improve the utilization rate of medical materials resources, and it also provides decision support for the formulation and dynamic adjustment of emergency material scheduling plan under emergency events.

A Bike Recycling Problem with Third-party Participation in Bike Sharing Systems

XU Guoxun, WANG Shuwei, GUO Qiang, ZHAO Da

2023, 32(1):  41-46.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0007

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In bike sharing systems, broken bikes may be piled up as high as a mountain in many stations due to the lack of recycling. Therefore, the recycling problem of broken bikes is significant to develop a sustainable bike sharing system. To improve the recycling efficiency of broken bikes, a bike recycling routing optimization problem with third-party managementis proposed. Based on the characteristics of third-party employees and trucks, third-party employees are incentivized to relocate broken bikes to transshipment stations to facilitate centralized recycling, while trucks are deployed to transport these broken bikes from transshipment stations to the repair center. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer programming model to minimize the total cost. To solve the proposed problem, an improved genetic algorithm is developed. Numerical experiments demonstrate the characteristics of the proposed problem, and reveal that the proposed recycling strategy can solve the problem of public space occupied by broken bikes and effectively reduce the operation cost. Numerical experiments also illustrate that the proposed solution method can obtain high-quality solutions within a short computation time.

High Dimensional Multi-objective Dynamic Job Shop Scheduling Optimization for Green Intelligent Manufacturing

LI Zhi, ZHOU Shuangniu

2023, 32(1):  47-53.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0008

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Nowadays, environmental problems are becoming more and more serious, and green and intelligent manufacturing has attracted much attention. On the basis of the dynamic flexible job-shop, considering different machine status under the situation of energy consumption and energy-saving machine works, this paper builds the multi-objective dynamic flexible job-shop scheduling model with goals of total energy consumption, maximum completion time, machine total load and stability of product quality, and then develops an Improved Multi-objective Grey Wolf Optimizer (IMOGWO) to solve the model. Firstly, we use the reverse learning initialization population strategy to expand the population diversity. Sencondly, according to the multi-objective problem and characteristics of standard GWO algorithm, we propose multi-stage official leadership mechanism, and introduce POX crossover and reverse mutation operator. Finally, the elite retention strategy is improved to adapt to the multi-objective optimization algorithm. In order to prove the effectiveness of the algorithm, we designe two groups of simulation experiments to compare three algorithms respectively. The simulation results show that the improved IMOGWO algorithm has better convergence and distribution for solving multi-objective problems.

Optimal Control Model of Population Diffusion System Affected by Pollution and Intraspecific Relationship

YANG Lu, GAO Wei

2023, 32(1):  54-59.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0009

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In order to solve the problem in management ecology that both pollution and inter-individual interactions (intraspecific relationships) seriously restrict the diffusion of bacteria population, an optimal control model based on nonlinear quasi-parabolic equation is established in this paper, in which the toxin rate imported into the population by the outside environment is regarded as the control variable. Meanwhile, the optimal control problem of population diffusion system under the influence of pollution and intraspecific relations is studied by using the control theory and method. The well-posedness of the population diffusion system is proved by the Schauder Fixed-point Theorem, and the existence of the admissible control and the optimal control is obtained by establishing a new Carleman-type estimate. Finally, a numerical example is given to analyze the results of theoretical derivation, and a pair of time optimal control is found in various cases, which verifies the effectiveness of the optimal control model of population diffusion system. The results can be used for reference in the prevention of modern infectious diseases and provide theoretical reference for the effective control of the outbreak and epidemic of plague.

Multi-objective Optimization for Forest Fires Emergency Rescue Scheduling with Resource Constraints

WANG Lubing, WU Peng, HU Peng, CHU Chengbin, LI Huijia

2023, 32(1):  60-66.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0010

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Many forest fire disasters cannot be extinguished in a short time due to limited emergency rescue resources, leading to the spread of fire and the loss of forest resources. Therefore, how to reasonably dispatch fire-fighting rescue vehicles to efficiently extinguish fire points at a low cost has become a practical problem. For this problem, this paper instigates a novel multi-objective forest fires emergency scheduling problem subject to limited rescue resources. First, we develop a mixed-integer nonlinear programming model to minimize the total extinguishing rescue time and the total travel distance of the rescue vehicles, simultaneously. To efficiently solve it, the nonlinear model is then transformed into an equivalent linear model. Then, we propose an ε-constraint and fuzzy-logic combined method to solve the linear model, in which the ε-constraint method obtains the Pareto front and the fuzzy-logic method recommend a preferred Pareto-optimal solution. Finally, numerical experiments on a real forest fire case in Daxing’anling, China and randomly-generated instances are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm. The computational results show that our proposed model and algorithm can effectively solve the multi-objective forest fires emergency rescue scheduling problem under resource constraints, and provide decision-makers with the most preferred emergency scheduling scheme.

Optimization of Double Fixed Effect Model Estimation under Weak Exogeneity

HU Xiaohui

2023, 32(1):  67-72.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0011

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Fixed effect model is an effective tool to exclude other interference factors to determine causal mechanisms, and is widely used in enterprise panel data analysis. Because of individual heterogeneity, the common fixed effect method cannot solve the incidental-parameter problem. According to the idea of Jackknife, the low order and high order deviation are gradually corrected, and the Half-Panel Jackknife method is constructed under the condition of weak externality. The application range is extended to short panel and linear model, which makes up for the shortcomings of the existing methods. Finally, taking M&A and government subsidy as examples, the results show that the Half-Panel Jackknife method can better control the sampling characteristics and individual heterogeneity of enterprise data in the double fixed effect model.

The Banzhaf Value with Graph and Coalition Structures

SHAN Erfang, LIU Heyu, LÜ Wenrong, SHI Jilei

2023, 32(1):  73-78.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0012

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As one of the well-known allocation rules in the classic transferable utility cooperative game, the Banzhaf value can be used to evaluate the different roles of players in the game. In this paper, firstly, we extend the Banzhaf value to a TU-game with coalition and graph structures, and define the Banzhaf value with coalition and graph structures(PL-Banzhaf value for short). It is also proved that PL-Banzhaf value satisfy the fairness, balanced contributions and partition component total power, and it can be characterized by these properties in two different forms. Secondly, we discuss an application of the PL-Banzhaf value in a case on transnational natural gas pipelines, and compare the value with several others.

Component Maintenance Policy Based on the Cost Priority

DUI Hongyan, YANG Xingju, TIAN Tianzi, BAI Guanghan

2023, 32(1):  79-84.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0013

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In order to improve the system performance and minimize the total cost of the system, it is necessary to carry out preventive maintenance on other components when the failure components in the system are repaired. Based on the consideration of the expected system maintenance costs, this paper proposes the cost-based component maintenance priority (CCMP) for binary and multistate systems. This paper focuses on the analysis of multi-state system, studies the optimal maintenance level of components based on the cost importance measures, and analyzes how to select preventive maintenance components under two maintenance strategies. Finally, the preventive maintenance strategy under cost constraint is discussed. Taking an early warning aircraft system as an example, the results show that the preventive maintenance priority based on cost is not only related to the location of components in the system and related costs, but also related to the importance of other components that can be used for preventive maintenance.

The Joint Decision of Flexible Job Shops Scheduling and Condition-based Maintenance

GAN Jie, WANG Lei, WU Yanru, ZHANG Xiaohong

2023, 32(1):  85-89.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0014

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For production system whose equipment state can be directly or indirectly detected, a joint strategy of flexible job shops scheduling and condition-based maintenance is proposed. The decision variables are scheduling sequence and condition based maintenance sequence, and the joint decision model is established. Furthermore, according to the joint strategy, the corresponding probability density function is deduced.In numerical analysis, the comparison of the optimization results of joint decision and independent decision shows the effectiveness of the model, and the sensitivity analysis of equipment deterioration parameters verifies the correctness of the model.

Analysis and Algorithm for the Deadline Problem of LOB Based on the Property of Controlling Activity

ZHANG Lihui, DAI Guyu, ZOU Xin, QI Jianxun

2023, 32(1):  90-96.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0015

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The deadline problem is one of the most widely studied problems in repetitive project scheduling, which aims at minimizing the number of employed crews without exceeding a given deadline. In view of the large scale of repetitive projects, an exact optimal schedule plays an important role in saving resources and costs. This paper analyzes the relationship between the crew allocation and project completion time from the perspective of control activities properties in line of balance(LOB)method, and some special properties of the deadline problem are given. On the one hand, project managers could utilize these properties to evaluate the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of a repetitive project. On the other hand, some pruning rules could be obtained from these properties, leading to an effective branch and bound algorithm for obtaining the exact solution to the deadline problem. Finally, case analysis and simulation validate the calculation results and efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

Personalized Ranking Online Reviews Based on Consumer Preferences

YANG Xian, LUO Dan, WU Jiangning

2023, 32(1):  97-102.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0016

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Due to the information overload of online reviews and consumer demand for customized services, it is particularly necessary to achieve personalized review ranking. Based on consumers’ multidimensional preferences, that is, product feature preference, review sentiment preference and browse quantity preference, this paper proposes a method to calculate consumer preference satisfaction of a review ranking, so as to transform the ranking issue into an optimization problem with the goal of maximizing the satisfaction. Because the problem is too complex to be solved accurately, an approximate solution based on an improved greedy algorithm is proposed. Finally, intensive experiments are conducted on real data from meituan.com, and the optimal parameter of the algorithm is determined. The results reveal that the proposed approach has the best effectiveness compared with other relevant methods and high sensitivity. The research can provide important practical guidance for consumers to improve decision-making efficiency and e-commerce platforms to improve review systems.

Tax Decision with Emission Reduction Quotas on PM_2.5 Governance with Uncertain Information

ZHOU Zhen, ZHANG Meijia, ZHANG Jianping, HUANG Jiapei, MENG Xizhen

2023, 32(1):  103-107.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0017

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Because haze control follows the principle of concentration control, and there is heterogeneity in cross-border transmission factors, in order to minimize the cost of emission reduction and achieve emission reduction targets, the central government cannot meet the balance of revenue and expenditure conditions only by implementing tax policies. Based on this, this paper combines tax and emission reduction quota, in order to achieve the double goals of central government revenue and expenditure balance and optimization of regional governance costs. At the same time, this paper takes the haze control in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region as the empirical analysis object to verify the feasibility of tax decision with emission reduction quota.

Research on Inventory Control Strategy of Fresh Products Supply Interruption Considering Epidemic Risk and Dual Timeliness

MU Jing, LI Jing

2023, 32(1):  108-115.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0018

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Due to solving the supply interruption caused by the major epidemic, the fresh product inventory level will fluctuate. Under the situation of random changes in market demand, a three-level fresh food supply chain inventory system composed of suppliers, distribution centers and retailers is established. Considering the three risk scenarios caused by the epidemic, the system dynamics model is introduced to simulate the operation of the retailer’s dynamic inventory system. The study finds that: affected by the two sequence parameters of the epidemic risk transmission coefficient and the deterioration rate, the supply chain inventory shows an oscillating trend; by determining the epidemic risk scenarios under different supply interruptions, we propose an optimized fresh-keeping investment strategy, a safety stock strategy, and a joint early transfer strategy for shared inventory. They can effectively reduce the fluctuation of retail inventory levels and make it show a steady trend, realize the double timeliness of the products in the delivery process, match supply and demand, alleviate the impact of epidemic risk, and provide decision support for relevant retail companies.

Research on the Participant Income in Quantum Game Process of Event Fault State

CUI Tiejun, LI Shasha

2023, 32(1):  116-120.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0019

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To understand the change of participants’ income with each influencing factor in the process of quantum game of event fault state, it is proposed to study participants’ income in the framework of space fault tree (SFT). The event fault state is expressed by quantum state, and the effect of different behaviors of manager and operator on the event fault state is expressed by game. Factors considered include safety output value, safety income distribution coefficient and safety measure cost. The relationship between event fault state and quantum game, the participant income in entangled and non entangled state, and the characteristics of participants’ income affected by various factors are studied. The income functions of managers and operators considering entangled and non entangled states are obtained. Combined with SFT theory and method, this paper puts forward the factor importance, factor joint importance, benefit risk area and safety area, factor area importance. In theory, SFT can be used to analyze the participants’ income of quantum game. It also discusses the possibility of using factor space theory to solve the problem.

Social Prevention and Information Disclosure: Evolution Mechanism and Prediction Model of Severe Infectious Diseases

ZHAO Ning, LIU Dehai

2023, 32(1):  121-126.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0020

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Novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic patterns in the world have been seriously divided. Based on China’s novel coronavirus pneumonia prevention and control system mobilization experience, this paper combines the game theory of social public health control measures with the epidemic model, and constructs the evolutionary game model of the major infectious disease epidemic mechanism and scenario prediction. The key role of social mobilization system in the early stage of epidemic prevention and control is described by adding the infection coefficient parameter in the epidemic model with endogenous factors. Finally, the SI model of infection coefficient is used to fit the logistic equation and analyze the peak value of the three anti epidemic models in the United States, Italy and China, and the results are compared. This study shows that in the absence of effective vaccines, the epidemic prevention and control mode of isolation and government information disclosure plays a key role in the prevention and control of new major infectious diseases in China.

Agricultural Futures Price Prediction Based on the VMD-ELM Decomposition and Ensemble Model

ZHANG Dabin, ZENG Liling, LING Liwen

2023, 32(1):  127-133.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0021

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To capture the complex characteristics of price fluctuations and further improve prediction accuracy of the agricultural futures market, a hybrid model, combined with variational mode decomposition and extreme learning machine, is constructed based on the decomposition and ensemble theory. The VMD model, which can effectively avoid mode mixing and end effects in signal decomposition, is more robust to complex time series. In addition, by randomly generates the connection weights and implicit between the input layer and the hidden layer, the ELM model solves the problems of slow convergence and overfitting of traditional machine learning model. More importantly, aiming to select the key parameter mode K of the VMD model, a K-value optimization method based on the minimum fuzzy entropy criterion is proposed. Taking the rice, wheat, and soybean meal futures closing prices of CBOT as the objects, the empirical results show that the performance of the proposed VMD-ELM hybrid model is optimal.

Application Research

Group Evaluation Method Based on Randomization of Evaluation Information and Its Application

YI Pingtao, WANG Shiye, LI Weiwei, DONG Qiankun

2023, 32(1):  134-140.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0022

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For the problems related to consensus aggregation in group evaluation, the group consensus aggregation solution method for randomization of evaluation information is discussed from the perspective of simulation. Firstly, based on the evaluation information of real number type, the accurate data are treated with a certain degree of looseness, and then combined with the three sigma principle of normal distribution, the possibility ranking with probability characteristics is aggregated by means of random simulation. Secondly, based on the evaluation information of interval number type, the evaluation information of interval number with different occurrence probability of each subinterval is integrated, and the possibility ranking with winning probability is given under the condition of sufficient stochastic simulation. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.Based on the perspective of group consensus, the evaluation information of real number and interval number is respectively randomized, which provides a new research idea for further exploration of the distribution form of interval number.

Research on the “Dual Circulation” Cooperation Strategy of Enterprise Alliance from the Perspective of Fuzzy Game

LI Cui

2023, 32(1):  141-146.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0023

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Fuzzy characteristics of enterprise cooperation are presented under the new development pattern of “dual circulation”, whether a stable fuzzy cooperation pattern can be formed and the income redistribution strategy of continuous cooperation has become the focus of the cooperative alliance. The generalized fuzzy excess game, fuzzy convex game and their generalized solution sets are applied to the cooperation and benefit reallocation of enterprise alliance under the new development pattern of “dual circulation”, the maximum generalized fuzzy excess game model and its generalized fuzzy bargaining set are proposed, and based on the perspective of the equilibrium of the maximum generalized fuzzy excess game, the equivalence between generalized fuzzy bargaining set and core in fuzzy convex game is demonstrated. The research results not only meet the willingness of partners to participate in cooperation with some resources, and meet the requirements of proving the equivalence of redistribution scheme under the fuzzy convex game formed by enterprise alliance cooperation, but also realize the strategy of retaining part of the benefit for alliance redevelopment.

Research on Different Online Sales Decisions Considering E-commerce Platform Coupons

ZHANG Zhijian, ZHOU Yadi, GUO Junhua, WANG Peng

2023, 32(1):  147-153.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0024

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Four Stackelberg models were constructed based on whether the platforms issues coupons and whether the retailer conducts integrated sales strategy (both regular sale and pre-sale are exists). Then, the platform commission rate, the impact of commodity valuation difference coefficient and the coupons redemption rate on equilibrium decisions and profits is analyzed. The result shows that the platform commission rate can improve the optimal sale prices and the face value of the coupon. It’s benefit for retailer to carry out pre-sale activities and narrow the valuation difference when the cost of pre-sale goods is low enough. Under certain conditions, the supply chain system revenue increases if the coupons redemption rate improved. The platform can increase its revenue by issuing coupons, but it hurts the profit of online retailer. Compared with other sales modes, the integrated sales mode can receive more benefits.

Research on Export Container Relocation Problem on Greedy Tabu Search Algorithm in Perpendicular Container Yard

ZHANG Yanwei, JIANG Nini, JI Sanyou

2023, 32(1):  154-158.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0025

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Based on the characteristics of export containers with different loading cycles mixed stored in multi-bays and the frequent movement of the gantry to retrieval or relocate containers in the yard of perpendicularautomatic container terminal, considering the impact of operation time and the number of operations on the efficiency and continuity of export containers loading, a relocation model of multi-blocks export containers in the yard when loading ship is established , and a two-stage greedy tabu search algorithm embedded with sorting rules is proposed to effectively decrease optimization time and solution space’s growth rate. Through an example, the effectiveness of the model and algorithm is verified by comparing the proposed relocation rules with the usual relocation rules. The results show that the proposed model and algorithm can output a better relocation plan in a reasonable time, with the loading time of yard crane reduced and the loading efficiency improved.

The Risk Communication Model and Simulation Research of Emergency Events Considering Public Risk Perception

WANG Jing, GUO Chuqing

2023, 32(1):  159-168.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0026

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In the process of emergency response, the public’s risk perception of emergencies will determine their behavioral choices to a certain extent and thus affect the spread of event risks. Sothis paper analyzes the path relationship among emergency risk information, risk perception and risk communication, introduces infectious disease propagation mechanism in the risk communication process, and builds a risk communication model based on differential equations. Four factors including risk communication threshold, media coverage, group risk perception, and personal risk knowledge level are comprehensively considered, combined with simulation experiments to analyze the impact on risk perception and risk communication behavior. Finally, the validity of the model conclusions is shown by a case study. The research conclusions of this article are helpful to provide theoretical basis and support for relevant functional departments to adjust public risk perception and formulate measures to reduce risks and expand harm.

Study on the Dual Network Embeddedness on Post-IPO Performance

CHEN Weizhong, YUAN Tian

2023, 32(1):  169-174.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0027

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The study analyses the effects of venture capital network and underwriter network on market performance of listed companies’ IPOs,which makes the theory of social network embeddness extend from single network to dual network. By using the data of 2004~2017 and building multiple regression models, the empirical results indicated that: (1)companies occupy central position only in venture capital network or occupy central position only in underwriter network will improve the post-IPO performance; (2)the promoting effects on short-term market performance of occupying central position both in venture capital network and underwriter network can substitute each other; (3)the promoting effects on long-term market performance of occupying central position both in venture capital network and underwriter network can complement each other.

Hybrid Multi-attribute Second Score Auction Mechanism Based on Data Envelopment Analysis

AN Qingxian, BAO Xi, XIONG Beibei

2023, 32(1):  175-180.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0028

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Multi-attribute auctions incorporate multiple attributes, such as priceand quality, on the basis of traditional price auctions, and have been widely used in many fields.In order to study the situation where the inputs have almost no prior structure and the number of bidders is large enough, this paper expands a single input to multiple inputs based on previous studies on multi-attribute auctions and reasonably divides multiple attributes of items (such as price, completion time, labor quantity, quality) into inputs or outputs. An effective multi-attribute second score auction mechanism is designed based on data envelopment analysis. Compared with other methods, data envelopment analysis combined with the multi-objective programming methods can effectively solve the multi-input and multi-output problems to help the auctioneer maximize his own utility while finding bidders with better overall performance. The mechanism satisfies the constraints of individual rationality and incentive compatibility. Compared with the traditional second score auction mechanism, thenew mechanism can maximize the utility of the auctioneer under the premise of attracting bidders.

Spillovers among Economic Policy Uncertainty, Financial Market Stress and Gold Market

ZHU Xuehong, HE Yingming, CHEN Jinyu

2023, 32(1):  181-186.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0029

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Based on the perspective of information spillovers, this paper uses spillovers model to examine the strength and direction of the spillovers among economic policy uncertainty, financial market stress and gold market, and combined with the rolling window test to capture the time-varying characteristics of the spillovers. In addition, this paper also studies the heterogeneity of the two-way spillovers among EPU, financial market stress and gold market in 21 representative countries. The empirical results show that: the spillovers among economic policy uncertainty, financial market stress and gold market show a significant time. With the changing characteristics, the spillovers showed a rapid upward trend during the financial crisis, and it was reflected as economic policy uncertainty and financial market stress on the net spillover of gold market. Financial market stress played a more important role in the spillovers; positive financial market stress shocks have a greater spillover than negative financial market stress shocks; economic policy uncertainty in various countries has a net spillover on the gold market, but different countries show differences in the intensity and scale of spillovers.

Does Managerial Entrenchment Affect Stock Price Synchronicity?

LI Meng, LI Bingxiang, ZHANG Tao

2023, 32(1):  187-193.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0030

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This paper focuses on the influence of Managerial Entrenchment on the Stock Price Synchronicity. Taking A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2018 in Chinese Capital market as the samples, and building the managerial entrenchment index based on the personal characteristics of the general manager, systematic investigation of the objective performance and influence path of managerial entrenchment on stock price synchronicity is conducted according to the logical order of “entrenchment motivation→behavioral choice→economic consequences”. The results show that the company’s stock price synchronicity rises significantly with the improvement of the managerial entrenchment level, and this conclusion is still valid after controlling the endogenous problem. The inspection results of the influence path show that the impact of managerial entrenchment on stock price synchronicity is realized through two paths: ①managerial entrenchment→information manipulation→stock price synchronicity; ②managerial entrenchment→insider trading→stock price synchronicity. The results of heterogeneity test show that the positive correlation between managerial entrenchment and stock price synchronicity is more significant in the samples from enterprises that did not hire the “Four Major” audit institutions and the non-state-owned enterprises. The research conclusions not only expand the literature research on the influence factors of Stock Price Synchronicity from the micro level of Managerial Entrenchment, but also have certain guiding significance for improving the efficiency of capital market allocation and realizing the goal of China’s financial reform in the new stage.

Massive Fake Review Group Recognition Based on Network Structure Features

WEI Jinrui, WANG Ruotong, WANG Han

2023, 32(1):  194-200.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0031

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At present, the methods of identifying fake reviews are mainly based on the text characteristics of the review and the behavior characteristics of the reviewer. However, the review text and the behavior of the reviewer are easy to be forged and imitated, what’s more, these two types of methods can only identify fake reviews one by one. This paper considers the network structure characteristics of fake reviews, defines the diversity and self-similarity of neighboring nodes by analyzing the network behavior of reviewers and the network structure characteristics between reviewer nodes, estimates the probability using a cumulative distribution function,and synthesizes network behavior scores. A 2-hop sub-graph is created by using suspicious products with high scores as seeds. After screening candidate groups of highly similar fake reviews in the sub-graphs, it is clustered and merged using GroupStrainer algorithms, HDBSCAN method and so on to find hidden fake review groups. The result of empirical analysis, which using Amazon’s four best-selling product data setsas samples, show that the method proposed in the article can effectively identify large-scale hidden fake review group. The statistical analysis of comprehensive group content found that there are product category differences in the attack mode of the fake review group on the target product. The fake review group has a stronger concentration of the target product than real reviewers, but they also use other non-target products to disguise itself to weaken its suspiciousness.

Optimization of China’s Service Trade Export Tax Rebate Policy and Its Impact on International Competitiveness

YANG Xinjiletu, WANG Wenzheng, HAN Weihong, YANG Yanli

2023, 32(1):  201-205.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0032

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The service trade export tax rebate policy has impacts on the reduction of the service trade deficit and the improvement of international competitiveness. In order to explore the optimization method of China’s service trade export tax rebate policy and its influence on the international competitiveness of service trade, the article constructs a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of China’s service trade export tax rebate(ET-DCGE). For the industries of construction service, tourism, finance consulting and other service, it designs a simulation plan for export tax rebate policy optimization including zero tax rate, transition from tax exemption to zero tax rate, and adding tax rebate rate grades. The results show that under the full implementation of the zero tax rate policy, the degree of reduction in the trade deficit of the service industry and the improvement of the industry’s international competitiveness would be the highest.

Research on Pricing Strategy of Crowdsourcing Logistics Based on Governmental Policy Regulation

LIANG Yuxiu, WU Lihua

2023, 32(1):  206-212.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0033

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Based on different market structures of the crowdsourcing logistics market, the paper constructs the optimal pricing model with the goal of maximizing the profit of the crowdsourcing logistics platform by considering the governmental regulation policy which is incentive or restrictive to the market. The platform’s optimal pricing is solved with the optimization method and the conclusions are verified with the numerical analyses. Under the monopoly market structure, the research results show that the platform pricing increases with the externality of the cross-user network when the government adopts the incentive policy while the platform pricing is negatively related to the governmental restriction and the pricing decreases as the restriction strength of the government policy increases when the restrictive policy is adopted. Under the competitive market structure, the research results show that the platform pricing is negatively related to the differentiated coefficient of the platform service when the government adopts the incentive policy and the platform pricing increases first and then decreases as the restriction strength of the government policy increases when the government adopts the restrictive policy.

Incentive and Risky Choice of Private Fund Managers under “High-Water Marks”

MA Benjiang, RUAN Qiangjia, ZHOU Zhongmin, CHEN Xiaohong

2023, 32(1):  213-217.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0034

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The private fund contract is essentially a complex principal-agent relationship. Based on the “2-20” contract of current private fund industry standard, this paper discusses the incentive effect of the “High-Water Marks” on fund managers and the resulting risk-taking behaviors under the framework of principal-agent and prospect theory.It is found that the phenomenon of commitment escalation occurs under the “High-Water Marks” incentive, and when fund managers are optimistic about the fund performance exceedingthe “High-Water Marks” during the evaluation period, they tend to adopt conservative investment strategy. On the contrary, a more aggressive investment strategy is preferred. Therefore, the improvement of “2-20” contract is proposed:the performance incentive multiplier should be adjusted with the changes in the subjective confidence of fund managers’, and at the same time, constraints on the scope of fund risks should be included to prevent excessive risks in the process of agency investment.

Management Science

Research on the Mechanism of the Impact of Government’s Public Goods Burden on Private Sector with the Perspective of Incomplete Contract

FENG Xiaowei, CAO Jiming, XU Zhiyuan, XING Mengjue

2023, 32(1):  218-226.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0035

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Considering the situation that government imposes the public goods burden to improve social public welfare and satisfies public demands, investors often take opportunistic behavior to protect their own interests from loss, thus damaging the interests of government and reducing social public welfare. We use evolutionary game theory to analyze the mechanism of investors’ behavior strategies and find that the probability of investors’ opportunistic behavior increases with the intensity of public goods burden, as the government subsidy is lower than a certain level. And the probability decreases with the degree of government subsidies when the public goods burden is below some level, while the effect of subsidy policy fails with intensity of public goods burden beyond a certain level. If occupying more proportion of PPP interests, investors are more inclined to take opportunistic actions. According to the research results, government should strengthen the spirit of contract, improve the regulatory mechanism and enhance the confidence of the private sector in project income not just subsidies.

Study on the Influence of Growth Options on the Optimal Capital Structure: A Perspective from Firm Lifecycle

LI Zhun, LI Qiang, ZENG Yong

2023, 32(1):  227-232.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0037

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The dynamic relation between asset composition and firm lifecycle determines the changing trend of optimal capital structure over time. In a framework with the trade-off between interest tax shield and bankruptcy cost, this paper uses real option approach to demonstrate the evolvement of optimal capital structure over firm lifecycle as a result of the dynamical exercising of growth options, and then extends to analyze the effect of stockholder-bondholder conflict on optimal capital structure, and finally provides evidence from A-share firms listed on Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges. The results show that the whole bankruptcy risk will decrease as the exercising of growth options and the accumulation of assets-in-place over firm lifecycle, and hence the optimal financial leverage exhibits an increasing trend with decreasing growth rate as the firm gradually becomes mature. In the presence of the agency conflict between shareholders and debtholders on exercising growth options, the appearance of underinvestment will do harm for optimal financial leverage, but the agency cost arising from underinvestment decreases along with firm lifecycle.

An Estimation Method and Application of Consensual Industrial Capacity Utilization Interval Based on Surrogate Data andMF-DFA Method

MAO Jinqi, WANG Delu, Xunpeng Shi

2023, 32(1):  233-239.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0036

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To achieve precise identification and control of industrial overcapacity, an estimation method of consensual industrial capacity utilization interval based on Surrogate Data method and Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis is proposed. Firstly, the long-range correlation and multifractal characteristics of the original time series are judged.Secondly, the Hurst index of all rearranged sequences is calculated by Surrogate Data and Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis method, and then the consensual industrial capacity utilization interval is determined according tothe convergence of exponents. Finally, the coal industry is taken as an example to verify the model. The results show that the method can adaptively determine the threshold value from the evolution law of data itself, and effectively overcome limitations of subjectivity and lack of theoretical basis of the traditional statistical and empirical methods; the consensual capacity utilization interval of China’s coal industry is 73.73%~86.23%. This study provides a quantitative analysis tool for the monitoring and identification of industrial overcapacity risks and provides a decision-making basis for deepening the governance of coal overcapacity.