Table of Content

25 February 2023, Volume 32 Issue 2

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

The Retailer's Optimal Acquisition Strategy under Manufacturer's Encroachment

HU Huaqing, GE Zehui, CHEN Lihua

2023, 32(2):  1-8.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0038

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The Internet and e-commerce have been developing rapidly, which motivates manufacturers to introduce their own direct selling channels. There is a large body of research that investigates manufacturer's channel operations strategy, but few studies examine retailers' coping strategy under encroachment. Due to the retailers' advantage in collecting consumer information, we study and put forward the optimal information acquisition strategy for the retailer facing encroachment. Considering the retailer's flexibility in information acquisition timing, we focus on two formats, namely committed acquisition and contingent acquisition, depending on whether the retailer commits to her acquisition decision before or after the manufacturer's quality investment. With contingent acquisition, the manufacturer first makes his product quality decision and then the retailer proceeds with her information acquisition decision. By contrast, with committed acquisition, the retailer moves first and decides whether to acquire information, and then the manufacturer invests in the product quality. Then, we investigate the manufacturer's product quality decision and selling decision. In this study, we not only offer theoretical guidance for retailers to cope with encroachment, but also provide references for improving product quality and consumer's expected utility. The results can be summarized as follows. First, the selling decisions of both the retailer and the manufacturer are affected by consumers' preference and the manufacturer's efficiency in direct selling. In particular, when consumers' quality preference is low and direct sales efficiency is not high, there will be no sales in the manufacturer's direct channel. However, when the manufacturer is efficient in direct selling, the retailer will be squeezed out of the reselling channel (i.e., there will be no sales in the reselling channel). When the consumers' quality preference is relatively high, the manufacturer will sell in both channels. Second, direct sales efficiency will affect the manufacturer's sales decision and the product quality decisions. When direct sales efficiency is high, the manufacturer improves product quality in the product development stage to set a higher direct sales price. When the manufacturer is less efficient in direct selling, the manufacturer will reduce or even give up sales on the direct sales channel and charge higher wholesale prices in the reselling channel by improving product quality. Third, in the face of the channel competition, the retailer can adopt the following information acquisition strategies: when manufacturer's direct sales efficiency is high, the retailer commits to acquire information to encourage manufacturers to improve product quality. When the direct selling efficiency is moderate, contingent acquisition is always a weakly dominant strategy. When the direct selling efficiency is low, the competition effect of direct selling channels is small, the retailer will make his information acquisition decision depending on the fixed cost of information acquisition. Specifically, when the cost of information acquisition is low, the retailer will adopt contingent acquisition to induce manufacturers to improve product quality. When the cost of information acquisition is relatively high and the direct sales efficiency is very low, realizing that the manufacturer has no motivation to improve quality, the retailer will adopt committed acquisition to encourage the manufacturer to enhance quality.
Our study is also subject to some limitations and various related directions can be explored in future research. First, our analysis is constructed on the assumption that consumers can accurately perceive product quality. In fact, if the manufacturer does not disclose any information about a newly developed product, the product properties will be usually difficult to be observed before the use phase. Hence, the manufacturer's quality disclosure strategy is worthy of further study. Second, it is worth mentioning that all the analyses in this paper are under the dual-channel configuration, and the manufacturer's encroachment decision, i.e., whether to build up a direct channel or not, can be a good candidate for future exploration. In addition, although the upstream firms' incentive for encroachment has been widely studied, it is still interesting to investigate the retailer's optimal information strategy under the potential encroachment. Last but not least, we bypass the unit production cost to capture the industries where the quality investment cost is high but the production cost is extremely low. However, in some other industries (such as auto industry) production costs cannot be ignored. Therefore, future research can discuss the manufacturer's quality investment strategy in consideration of production costs and the retailer's information strategy.

Research on Agricultural Product Marketing Strategy Considering Variable Opacity

MAO Zhaofang, ZHANG fan

2023, 32(2):  9-14.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0039

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Practically, the merchant could adopt differential pricing policy of different transparent boxes for the low value perishable agricultural products, to increase corporate profits while meeting the diverse needs of the market. That is, the merchant adjusts the opacity of boxes and optimal prices to reduce uncontrollable inventory by allowing customers to exclude some products into the box. This study considers different transparency combination modes, including only a single opacity box is provided, two opacity boxes combination is provided, and three boxes combination. By applying different strategies, we explore the optimal mix strategy and corresponding pricing level. The result indicates that for manufacturer, it is always superior to take three opacity boxes combination strategy. By continuously increasing the types of optional opacity boxes, the profit of merchant can be significantly increased.

Manufacture's Developing Strategy of International Market under Parallel Importation

DING Long, HU Bin, YUAN Hongping

2023, 32(2):  15-21.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0040

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A growing number of firms are developing international market strategies to keep advantages in the fierce global competition. In many of the multinational firms, some are successful and some may fail. There are many reasons for failure, and gray market is one of important factors. This paper investigates the impacts of parallel importation on firms' developing strategy of international market under gray market, where the manufacturer sells product directly in a domestic market in the presence of an international market. The two markets are separate and there remain differences between them. We consider two cases for the market disparity: ITD case where the domestic market is high-end market and international market is low-end market, DTI case where the domestic market is low-end market and international market is high-end market. The gray market forms once the third-party imports the products from low-end market to high-end market. This paper aims to answer the following questions: What's the optimal international market development strategy for manufacturer under ITD and DTI cases? How does gray market affect the firm's international market development strategy and price decisions under ITD and DTI cases?
We establish three models in each case: the case where the manufacturer does not develop international market and third-party does not parallel import, the case where the manufacturer develops international and third-party does not parallel import, the case where manufacturer develops international market and third-party parallel imports. Through comparative analysis, we explore manufacturer's developing strategy of international market. The results show that in the ITD case, it is not always beneficial to develop international market. When the market disparity is relatively small, the manufacturer will choose to develop international market, when the market disparity is relatively large, the manufacturer will not develop international market. However, in the DTI case, it is always beneficial for the manufacturer to develop international market. Besides, the findings also show that third-party will parallel import only when the market disparity is relatively large and gray market always decreases the profits of manufacturer and whole supply chain. In the ITD case, if the manufacturer develops the international market and the third-party parallel imports, the gray market will decrease the product price in the domestic market but increase the product price in the international market. By contrast, in the DTI case, if manufacturer develops the international market and the third-party parallel imports, the gray market will increase the product price in the domestic market but decrease the product price in the international market.
This paper studies the impact of parallel importation on the manufacturer's international market development strategies, which makes contributions to the gray market and international market development in theory and practice. We introduce gray market into international market development research, and investigate the impact of parallel importation on firms' international market development strategy, which promotes a new development of interdisciplinary field. In addition, we consider the differences of domestic and international markets and show the differences of manufacturers' international market development strategies under ITD and DTI cases. This provides a reliable theory for firms' international market development decision-making. Although the above contributions are made, our results are subject to limitations and thus can be further supplemented. For example, this paper considers a third-party parallel importation, future research could consider a situation where an authorized retailer, such as eBay, Kmart, and Costco may also engage in gray market. In addition, we consider a market structure consisting of one manufacturer, and future study could consider a setting where the manufacturers compete in both domestic and international markets.

Study of the Selection of Sales Mode of Fresh E-commerce under the Competition of Quality-price

LIN Qiang, CHEN Liangjun, LIN Xiaogang

2023, 32(2):  22-28.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0041

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Against the background of the rapid development of platform economy, many e-commerce platforms have opened up the fresh products market, and invested a lot of money, so that the fresh e-commerce field has entered the high-speed development of the fast lane. At the same time, online retailers, which have traditionally served only as distributors, are beginning to offer online marketing services, establishing a direct link between buyers and sellers. For example, JD has become a hybrid platform by offering online marketing services, using a wholesale mode to act as an online retailer and an agency mode to connect buyers and sellers as an intermediary platform. Based on this, fresh products can be attached to the rich sales mode of hybrid e-commerce platform and sold efficiently during the preservation period to meet consumers' demand for high-quality fresh products. It's a mutually beneficial partnership for fresh suppliers and e-commerce platforms.
In fact, fresh e-commerce platform enterprises usually operate in wholesale mode and agency mode. For example, JD Fresh has both Jingmi Fresh (wholesale mode) and Youjihui Fresh (agency mode). However, with the improvement of people's income and living standard, consumers will pay more attention to the quality of fresh products besides the price.As we know, if the products purchased and resold by an e-commerce platform from a supplier are the same kind as those sold by the supplier, there will be competition between the two parties. In addition, in order to be more competitive in their own sales channels, the quality of similar products sold by both sides often differs. However, quality differences in products usually produce price competition and differences. Therefore, the quality difference of similar products will affect the market demand of consumers, and thus affect the income of e-commerce platforms and suppliers. So when the quality of similar products is different, how should platform enterprises and suppliers choose their sales mode?
Therefore, in the supply chain system composed of a single fresh supplier and a single hybrid e-commerce platform, this paper considers the quality level and price competition between high quality and low quality fresh products, and constructs a two-stage game model between suppliers and e-commerce platform under “quality-price” competition, and obtains the optimal decision-making behavior of each member enterprise. The influence of market factors such as platform revenue sharing rate, competition intensity between high quality and low quality products and product quality level on optimal decision and optimal expected revenue is analyzed, and the influence of the above key factors on the choice of sales mode of suppliers and platform enterprises is further discussed. It is found that: (1)the competition intensity between different quality of fresh product and the commission rate are the main factors affecting the choice of sales mode of suppliers and platform enterprises; (2)when the commission rate is high, the e-commerce platform will adopt the agency mode to sell high-quality fresh products, while the supplier will adopt the wholesale mode; (3)when the commission rate is moderate and the competition intensity and quality level of different quality products meet certain conditions, if high-quality fresh products are sold, both suppliers and e-commerce platforms will adopt the agency mode; if low quality fresh products are sold, the parties shall adopt the agency mode or wholesale mode.
This paper studies the selection of sales mode in the fresh e-commerce supply chain under the condition of quality and price competition, and provides a certain reference value for the selection of sales mode faced by each member of the supply chain when supplying products of different quality. As this paper is written on the basis of certain assumptions, there are still some problems for further research. For example, in the case of multiple e-commerce platforms or multiple suppliers competing with each other, the selection of sales mode faced by a complex supply chain network can be considered. In addition, the influence of fresh product characteristics such as freshness and loss rate on the optimal decision of e-commerce supply chain members and the selection of sales mode can be deeply discussed.

Multi-period Closed-loop Supply Chain Network Equilibrium Considering Advertising Forgetting Effect under Random Demand

DUAN Caiquan, YAO Fengmin, TENG Chunxian

2023, 32(2):  29-37.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0042

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Developing a sustainable manufacturing industry is important for improving resource utilization and realize environmental protection. The remanufacturing industry has become a pioneer of sustainable manufacturing worldwide. A multi-period closed-loop supply chain network is conducive to integrating different types of enterprises, realizing resource reuse, and conforming to the dynamic competitive market environment faced by enterprises, which has been widely recognized in the literature. In reality, information asymmetry between enterprises and markets often leads to randomness in product demand, and the advertising function transmits product information to the market so as to affect the purchase behavior of consumers. In addition, according to the logic of “manufacturing/remanufacturing→market”, enterprises that implement advertising behavior in a multi-period closed-loop supply chain network system are not limited to manufacturers, and remanufacturers also have advertising behavior. Previous studies have shown that the advertising effect includes not only immediacy but also the psychological factor of forgetting. Therefore, under the assumption of random demand and the advertising forgetting effect, it is important to study the multi-period closed-loop supply chain network equilibrium considering advertising investment by manufacturers and remanufacturers. This study supplements the literature on the closed-loop supply chain network equilibrium under the advertising forgetting effect. In this study, it is assumed that the multi-period closed-loop supply chain network system consists of suppliers, manufacturers, remanufacturersand demand markets, in which members at the same level compete with each other. Suppliers are responsible for converting primary materials into usable raw materials and selling them to manufacturers. Manufacturers are responsible for converting raw materials into new products and selling them to demand markets. Remanufacturers are responsible for recycling and remanufacturing. It is assumed that all members of the closed-loop supply chain network are risk-neutral, and the information among members is completely symmetrical. Each member of the system aims to maximize profits. First, under the assumption of random demand and advertising investment of manufacturers and remanufacturers, using the Nash non-cooperative game and variational inequality, the optimal behaviors of suppliers, manufacturersand remanufacturers are transformed into solvable variational inequalities. Second, using the Nash non-cooperative game, variational inequalityand spatial price equilibrium theory, the optimal behavior of demand markets considering advertising forgetting is transformed into variational inequality. Third, according to network equilibrium theory, a multi-period closed-loop supply chain network equilibrium model that considers advertising investment and the advertising forgetting effect is established, and the equilibrium conditions of the model are given. Finally, using the modified projection algorithm, the equilibrium results are verified and explained using numerical examples, and the influence of important parameters on the network equilibrium results under different situations is analyzed.
The main conclusions of this study are as follows. (1)Compared with remanufacturers' advertising investment, manufacturers' advertising investment has a more significant impact on the recycling rate and the profits of the system regardless of the advertising forgetting coefficient. The advertising forgetting effect is always unfavorable to the sales of new products and the recycling of waste products. (2)When the advertising investment level of manufacturers is higher, the profits of remanufacturers will always be higher; in contrast, the profits of suppliers, manufacturers, and the system will be higher when the advertising forgetting coefficient is less than a certain threshold. (3)The existence of advertising forgetting reduces the positive incentive effect of advertising investment on demand markets. The enhancement of the advertising forgetting coefficient reduces the recycling rate and the profits of members and the system. In particular, when advertising forgetting coefficient is dynamic, its value will have a more significant effect on the system in the early periods. Finally, according to the research conclusions, this study provides some management suggestions from the perspective of the government and members, which can provide theoretical and practical suggestions for the formulation of government mechanisms and members' decisions.
Previous studies have shown that advertising not only has the forgetting effect, but also has memory and delay effects. In the future, exploring other advertising effects, such as delay or memory effects, on the equilibrium of a multi-period closed-loop supply chain network is an interesting research problem. Also, this study examines a multi-period closed-loop supply chain network equilibrium under the channels of manufacturers and remanufacturers. Future researchcan consider the multi-period closed-loop supply chain equilibrium underthe sale channel of retailers. In addition, this study considers recycling and remanufacturing by remanufacturers. Future research can relax certain assumption. For example, it is assumed that manufacturers/third-party recyclers recycle waste products. Therefore, a multi-period closed-loop supply chain network equilibrium under the recycling mode of manufacturers/third-party recyclers is also an interesting research direction.This research is supported by the Philosophy and Social Science Research Planning Project of Heilongjiang Province (21GLC184). Particularly, the authors thank the editors and reviewers for their hard work.

Study on Dairy Supply Chain Network Equilibrium under the Third-party Testing Market Encroachment

HUA Lianlian, ZHANG Lili, YANG Yanli, LIU Yanqiu, WU Jia

2023, 32(2):  38-44.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0043

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In recent years, the dairy industry has suffered a serious crisis of trust due to the frequent occurrence of dairy safety incidents. It is urgent to strengthen the control of dairy product quality. This requires the collaborative management of the upstream and downstream of the dairy supply chain, which can also avoid the opportunistic behavior of different supply chain nodes. As the core enterprise of the dairy supply chain, dairy manufacturers are the key subjects of quality control in the dairy industry. Compared with the independent input of quality and technology resources by all participants, the input of quality and technology resources in the whole industrial chain led by core enterprises is more conducive to optimizing the allocation of resources and balancing the benefit distribution mechanism. For the balance of interests in the supply chain network, dairy manufacturers should increase their investment in the innovation of fresh milk detection technology to play the leading role in the dairy supply chain. When the fresh milk suppliers play a leading role in the quality control effective way to achieve the governance of the dairy supply chain. However, both fresh milk suppliers and dairy products manufacturers are likely to cause opportunistic risks such as“collusion” among upstream and downstream enterprises when considering the maximization of their own interests, which will also have a negative impact on the sustainable development of the dairy supply chain. Therefore, our study consider introducing third-party testing institutions as the main participants in the dairy supply chain to optimize the existing dairy supply chain network structure. By constructing a dairy supply chain network equilibrium model including fresh milk suppliers, third-party testing institutions, dairy manufacturers and demand markets, this paper reveals the impact of changes in the input level of fresh milk testing technology innovation under the invasion of third-party testing institutions on the balanced decision-making at all levels of the dairy supply chain, and explores the government subsidies and punishment strategies under the equilibrium state in combination with the actual business situation of third-party testing institutions, and reconstruct the upstream and downstream benefit distribution mechanism of the dairy supply chain. The results show that: The third-party inspection institutions undertake the investment of fresh milk detection technology, and the greater input of raw milk testing technology innovation, the more improve the testing quality level. At the same time, the risk aversion ability gradually strengthened, the overall profit of the dairy supply chain network increased, which is a beneficial attempt to achieve the management of the dairy supply chain, and has important practical significance for the high-quality operation of the dairy supply chain; Suppliers of raw milk take the leading position in quality control and urge dairy producers to share part of testing cost through price transmission mechanism, so as to alleviate the pressure on them to bear the testing costs unilaterally, and also provide decision-making reference for balancing the distribution of benefits in the dairy supply chain; The government plays a regulatory role in the third-party testing environment, improves the fairness and impartiality of third-party testing institutions through subsidies and punishment measures. At the same time, the government promotes the market-oriented operation of third-party testing by adjusting strategies.

Research on Low-carbon Supply Chain Decisions Considering Manufacturers' Disappointment Aversion Behaviors under Different Power Structures

XU Haoxin, YU Tianyang, GUAN Zhimin, QU You

2023, 32(2):  45-52.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0044

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This article examines a low-carbon supply chain composed of a disappointment-averse manufacturer and a completely rational retailer. Considering the uncertainty of low-carbon technology innovation investment, this article constructs game models under three channel power structures-manufacturer-led(MS), retailer-led(RS), and the manufacturer and the retailer have equal power(Nash), and addresses decision-making issues such as the optimal emission reduction level and pricing of the low-carbon supply chain. We then analyze and compare the influence of the manufacturer's disappointment aversion coefficient on its optimal emission reduction level and utility under these three power structures. The results show that the manufacturer's disappointment aversion coefficient is negatively correlated with the manufacturer's emission reduction level and utility under all three conditions. When the manufacturer is the leader, the manufacturer has the greatest utility but the lowest emission reduction level. The relationship between the emission reduction level (or the manufacturer's utility) under cases of retailer-led and the manufacturer and the retailer have equal power as a threshold effect of the emission reduction cost coefficient and disappointment aversion level. In addition, through numerical analyses, we find that the retailer's expected profit is the highest when the retailer dominates, second when the powers of the two parties are equal, and the lowest when the manufacturer dominates. At the same time, the total expected profit of the entire supply chain is the lowest when the manufacturer dominates. In the other two power structures, there is also a threshold effect of the emission reduction cost coefficient and the disappointment aversion level.

Decision-making Method and Application of Ship Maintenance Resource Allocation Based on ε-EGA Multi-criteria Adjustment

ZHANG Kan, XI Peng, LIANG Xin, LI Xiaoling

2023, 32(2):  53-60.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0045

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Ship maintenance resource allocation problem is essentially the extension and application of resource scheduling problem in ship maintenance field. Compared with other military equipment, ship equipment is a typically sophisticated large complex weapon equipment with large unit price, high scientific and technological integration, as well as complex technology. Therefore, it has higher internal requirements for optimizing ship maintenance resource allocation. Therefore, overall consideration of multi-dimensional resource influences and research on optimal design of ship maintenance resource allocation scheme have high practical application value for improving the efficiency of ship maintenance task scheduling, enhancing the economic benefits of ship repair units and maximizing the combat effectiveness of repaired ships.
Against the background of multi-dimensional resource integration in ship maintenance, in order to improve the scientific and effective allocation of ship maintenance resources, this paper proposes the definition of maintenance combat effectiveness in view of ship maintenance objectives, and regards the generation of maintenance combat effectiveness as the combination of the quantity and quality of various maintenance resources. Considering the influence of financial, human, material and technical resources on the allocation of ship maintenance resources, a ship maintenance resource allocation model is constructed. In the modeling design, taking the maximum military benefit (maintenance combat effectiveness) and the minimum maintenance cost as the optimization objectives, the model parameters and decision variables are defined scientifically, and the ship maintenance resource allocation problem is transformed into a multi-objective optimization problem of mixed integer nonlinear programming model. In terms of solving ideas and methods, based on the standard genetic algorithm(SGA), ε-constraint criterion of multi-objective decision is introduced to ensure the non-uniquenness of model solution results under different constraints, so as to form a decision scheme set for decision analysis. At the same time, in order to further improve the convergence speed and stability of model optimization, the elite retention strategy is introduced into the basic algorithm, and a new ε-EGA multi-criterion adjustment algorithm is constructed. The solving steps of the complete elite retention genetic algorithm under the ε-constraint criterion are provided to ensure that satisfactory Pareto solution sets and frontiers can be searched more quickly.
Finally, an empirical test is carried out based on the actual annual ship maintenance tasks of enterprise H, so as to improve the scientific nature of the conclusions of the optimal allocation model and enhance the consistency between the model and the actual situation. The data involved in the demonstration, such as ship maintenance funds, personnel type and quantity, maintenance equipment type and quantity, are provided by the financial management department of Enterprise H. The analysis results show that when the ε-EGA multi-criterion adjustment algorithm is running, the fitness function value of the optimal individual decreases with the increase of population genetic algebra, and is basically stable when the population evolves to 120 generations. The optimal fitness value of the population after the evolution to 200 generations is -347.87, slightly less than the average fitness value -345.09. It indicates that the overall evolution level of the population is high and the optimized decision scheme can reach the predetermined goal. The results show that the ε-EGA multi-criteria adjustment algorithm has good applicability, fast calculation speed and high optimization degree, and plays an obvious role in the allocation of ship maintenance resources of enterprise H. ε-EGA multi-criteria adjustment algorithm can provide dynamically changing optimal decision scheme synchronously according to the adjustment and change of constraint criteria, and the method has strong stability. The maintenance resource allocation model established in this paper also means significant for resource scheduling and planning in other engineering industries.
Since the influence of maintenance time on resource allocation is not considered in the process of resource allocation optimization, the proposed decision-making method of ship maintenance resource allocation based on &-EGA multi-criteria adjustment still leaves room for further optimization and discussion. If the maintenance time variable is included in the model design as an influencing factor, the adaptability of the model can be further improved from the perspective of maintenance resource use sequencing. This paper has been greatly supported by the Youth Project of the National Social Science Foundation(19CGL073)and the Department of Management Engineering and Equipment Economics of Naval University of Engineering. We would like to express our deep gratitude here.

Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Distance Measures and Its Application in Multiple Attribute Decision Making

WU Shuangsheng, LIN Jie, YANG Yushu, HUANG Donghong

2023, 32(2):  61-67.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0046

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A series of new and more reasonable hesitant fuzzy linguistic distance measures are proposed to solve the problems of the existing hesitant fuzzy linguistic distance measures, such as not satisfying the directness, changing the original decision information and ignoring the difference of hesitance degree. Firstly, the limitations of the existing hesitant fuzzy linguistic distance measures are enumerated and analyzed. Secondly, the definition of hesitance degree of hesitant fuzzy linguistic is given, and a series of new distance measures, such as Euclidean distance, Hamming distance, Hamming-Hausdorff distance, Euclidean-Hausdorff distance and their generalized form, weighted form and generalized weighted form, are put forward respectively for hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set, and the related properties and theorems of the new distance measures are proved. On this basis, a multi-attribute decision making method based on the new hesitant fuzzy linguistic distance measures and maximizing deviation is proposed. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the new hesitant fuzzy linguistic distance measures and multi-attribute decision making method are verified by a concrete example and comparative analysis.

Research on the Frugal Innovation Decision-making Mechanism of Enterprises Based on Evolutionary Game Theory

QU Xiaoyu, GONG Zhendong

2023, 32(2):  68-75.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0047

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As a resource-saving innovation model serving low-income consumers, frugal innovation conforms to the innovation trend under the new normal of China's economy. The paper studies the behaviors of three subjects (enterprise, government and consumer) that affect frugal innovation decision-making. The paper uses evolutionary game theory to explore the impact of changes in the behavior of each subject in the entire system, and uses MATLAB to perform numerical simulation analysis, in order to provide countermeasures for frugal innovation decision-making. The results show that: government's preferential subsidies, penalties and regulatory policies are helpful to enterprises' frugal innovation decision-making, but the preferential subsidies and guiding investment should be adjusted in time according to its specific situation, otherwise it is easy to reduce the speed of frugal innovation decision; the increase in purchasing power brought by low-income consumers and the increased acceptance of frugal innovation products by consumers also promote frugal innovation decision-making of enterprises.

Evolutionary Game Research on the Behavioral Integration of Top Management Team in Megaprojects

ZHANG Xinyue, LE Yun, LIU Mingqiang, LI Li

2023, 32(2):  76-82.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0048

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Rooted in the context of megaprojects in China, from the perspective of the adjustment of top management team members, this paper explores the behavioral integration game between the new top management team members and the original team members. In order to better describe the dynamic behavior evolution process of the top management team in the context of megaprojects under the “government-market” dual system in Chinese transition period, the factors such as administrative level and position form are introduced into the evolutionary game analysis, and the evolution path and numerical examples of the model are simulated and analyzed. The research results show that the adjustment of megaproject top management team members should pay attention to the matching of top management team members and organizational characteristics, and comprehensively consider the administrative level, the position form, and the comprehensive demographic characteristics; emphasize the relative cost reduction of top management team members in organizational governance.

Evolutionary Game and Stability Analysis of Mining Heritage Tourism Development Supervision

LIU Yiqing, TANG Yang, LIANG Yanru, XU Chundong

2023, 32(2):  83-89.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0049

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The Shougang Ski Jumping Stadium, known as the “Flying Snow Sky”, was unexpectedly “out of the loop” at the Beijing Winter Olympics, highlighting the unique charm of the industrial relic. China has a long history of mining development, and the development of mineral resources has left environmental scars while bringing glory. How can ecological flowers blossom from mining scars? There are many actors involved in the development of mining heritage tourism, and balancing the interests of all actors is crucial to the conservation and development of mining heritage. How can incentives, rewards and penalties be designed to reconcile the rights and interests of multiple parties, thereby realizing the multiple economic, ecological and social benefits of mining heritage?
Existing research has focused on the study of the use/direction of abandoned mine rehabilitation, the application of PPT projects, the study of the evolution of multiple subjects, and case studies. While evolutionary games are widely used to analyse the behaviour of multiple actors, there is a lack of research on the evolutionary games of stakeholders involved in the development of mining heritage tourism, and there is a lack of research on the dynamic evolution of multiple actors. The article explores the game and stability analysis of the government, enterprises and mining residents from the perspective of mining heritage tourism using the dynamic evolutionary approach, and explores the influence of government incentives on the development behaviour of enterprises from static to dynamic, in order to provide some reference for the government to optimise the regulatory mechanism.
Firstly, a static evolutionary game model of the core interests of enterprises, government and mining residents is constructed; secondly, dynamic variables are introduced on the basis of the static evolutionary game, and system dynamics simulation is used to analyse the behavioural strategies and stability of the three parties under the three escalation schemes of general punishment, dynamic punishment and optimised dynamic reward and punishment, and Liapunov's stability theory is used for double argumentation. It is found that (1)the behaviour of the three parties under the general evolutionary scenario is unstable and unpredictable, and market regulation is difficult; (2)by linking the cost of government supervision, the fine for corporate violations with the probability of corporate violations, and setting the government dynamic supervision variables and dynamic punishment variables, the behaviour of the three parties under the dynamic punishment scheme is also unstable, but the dynamic punishment scheme suppresses the fluctuation situation of the behaviour of the three parties to a certain extent. This indicates that simply adjusting the government supervision cost and dynamic punishment variables cannot effectively promote enterprises' law-abiding development, and further optimisation of the government supervision mechanism is required; (3)on the basis of introducing the government dynamic supervision cost and focusing on optimising the government dynamic punishment and incentive instruments, the further optimised dynamic reward and punishment scheme can effectively suppress the repeated fluctuations of tripartite behaviour and reach a stable state, proving the effectiveness of the incentive instruments in regulating enterprises' integrity. This demonstrates the effectiveness of incentives in regulating business integrity strategies. Finally, the article proposes that the government should adopt a comprehensive and optimized dynamic reward and punishment scheme to regulate the redevelopment of mining relics, collaborate with the public to build a combination of various regulatory tools, construct an ecological culture system and cultivate an ecological cultural framework for the development of mining relics.
The article reveals the evolutionary differences between the three subjects in different contexts from a dynamic perspective. The dynamic non-linear punishment-subsidy mechanism provides a dynamic perspective on the complex interactions between the three subjects, offering a new explanation for the development of mining relics and enriching the approach to the study of tourism development of mining relics. However, the article defines mining residents as the supervisors of mining heritage tourism development, but in fact, mining residents have a dual role as both supervisors and participants of mining heritage tourism development, and their dual role increases the complexity of their interests and behavioural choices, which can be further expanded in future studies. The research can also be combined with surveys and interviews of actual mining heritage development cases to further consider the consistency with real cases and enhance the explanatory power of the research.

Study on A Management Strategy for Garbage Classification Based on Evolutionary Game Theory

ZHANG Qi, LIU Jiangfeng, LI Yan, FANG Yong

2023, 32(2):  90-96.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0050

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The existing studies show that garbage classification is an important way to alleviate environmental issues. However, the current incentive mechanisms for garbage classification exist some problems, such as heavy burden on residents, great resistance to policy promotion, and so on. This paper proposes a new incentive mechanism which combines the green credits of garbage classification with the traditional carbon market. The evolutionary game theory is applied to develop a tripartite non-cooperative game model among the government, enterprises and residents. Finally, the sensitivity analysis is carried out on how the key parameters affect their decisions through numerical simulation. The results show that: (1)the final balance state is: the government will choose the credit mechanism, the enterprises choose the radical production, and the residents choose to carry out garbage classification; (2)based on the numerical simulation, it is concluded that: i)under the credit mechanism, the government can accelerate the evolution process by increasing propaganda and regulatory costs within 10% or enterprise subsidies within 40%; ii)when the credit income reduced by less than 30%, or the time and physical expenditure increased by less than 15%, the garbage classification is still optimal; iii)if the production income reduced by less than 10% or the credit price increased by less than 75%, the radical production decision is still optimal. Therefore, the credit mechanism proposed in this study is more efficient than the current incentive mechanisms.

Emergency Decision-making Method with Utility and Equity Satisfaction under the Fusion of Multi-source Heterogeneous Data

WANG Zhiying, NIE Huifang, ZHAO Hongli

2023, 32(2):  97-104.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0051

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Various emergencies take place frequently worldwide, and therefore, emergency decision-making (EDM) has been the focus of governments and scholars. However, the complexity and uncertainty of the EDM problem make it difficult for decision-makers to make an effective decision. On the one hand, EDM is related to the vital interests of victims, thus the satisfaction of decision-makers and the public can affect the effectiveness of EDM. On the other hand, the evaluation of such satisfaction is often supported by heterogeneous data such as linguistic variables and fuzzy numbers. Therefore, an EDM method with utility and equity satisfaction under the fusion of multi-source heterogeneous data is proposed to solve the above problems. First, the EDM problem to be solved in this article is described (That is, in order to select the optimal alternative, how should we propose a scientific EDM method with utility and equity satisfaction under the fusion of multi-source heterogeneous data. In this method, different types of data such as linguistic variables and fuzzy numbers will be normalized to the form of interval numbers, and the functions of utility satisfaction and equality satisfaction will be further constructed based on new comparison method of interval numbers, based on which the comprehensive satisfaction and the ranking of alternatives will be obtained by using the weights of attributes which is obtained by an optimal model). Second, for the ease of understanding, the relevant notations are used to describe the decision information, and the decision data with various forms is represented by linguistic variables, intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and hesitant fuzzy numbers. Third, a method for fusing multi-source heterogeneous data is developed, and moreover, according to basic cases of interval number comparison, the method for comparing interval number and the comparison results in such cases is given. Then, by giving the subjective expectation interval of decision makers and the public on decision results in advance, the functions of utility satisfaction and equity satisfaction based on the prospect theory and the inequity aversion model are constructed respectively. Further, according to the principles of minimum deviation and maximum comprehensive satisfaction, an optimal model is established to obtain the weights of attributes, based on which the comprehensive satisfaction of alternatives is calculated. Finally, the COVID-19 is taken as an example to demonstrate potential application of the proposed method and the comparison with other approaches is carried out to demonstrate the effectives of the proposed method. The results shows that the proposed method can effectively solve the EDM problem, and compared with the exiting methods, the proposed method can not only better reflect the important role the utility and equity satisfaction play in selecting the optimal alternative, but also reflect the impact of decision-makers' preference for utility and equity satisfaction on decision results. Accordingly, the managerial implication of the study can be obtained as follows: In the actual decision-making process, it is usually difficult for the existing EDM methods to obtain the optimal decision result because the subjective psychological expectations of decision-makers and the public can affect their satisfactions to response result. Therefore, it is necessary for decision department to take utility satisfaction and equity satisfaction as important bases for decision-making, which can effectively avoid negative emotion caused by the dissatisfaction of the public to decision result as well as ensure the maximum of the decision utility satisfaction. In addition, in the decision process, the decision department should reasonably balance the relationship between the utility satisfaction and equity satisfaction of the alternatives according to the actual decision situation. For example, in small scale accidents such as urban public facilities accidents, the primary goal of decision-making is to reduce social losses caused by accidents as soon as possible, thus we should pay more attention to utility satisfaction of the alternatives in such a situation. In contrast, in large scale epidemic or earthquake disaster, because the decision process involves the problem of material distribution in different disaster areas and the beneficiaries are the victims in different disaster areas, the decision department should pay more attention to demands of the public on the basis of ensuring the maximum of the utility satisfaction, so as to prevent the negative emotion of the public caused by inequitable decision and its social influence. For future research, two directions will be further considered. One is that we have only considered the fusion problem of decision information which is represented as general forms such as linguistic variables and fuzzy numbers in this article, the future studies will consider the fusion problem of other types of decision data such as random variable. The other one is that the expectation intervals of decision-makers and the public are given in advance when constructing the functions of utility satisfaction and equity satisfaction, and future studies will consider the problem that how to construct the satisfaction function in the case of the uncertain expectation intervals.

Study of Design Optimization of Dynamic Mechanism in Product Crowdfunding Based on Differential Equation

SHI Qingchun, LI Xiaodie

2023, 32(2):  105-110.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0052

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In the development process of small and medium-sized creative enterprises, the difficulty of financing has not been overcome. With the accelerated penetration of the Internet and big data, crowdfunding, as a new business model combining crowdsourcing and micro finance, has the advantages of low cost, popularity and high efficiency. It complements traditional financing methods and gradually becomes one of the effective ways for small and medium-sized creative enterprises to carry out external financing. However, since the introduction of crowdfunding into the Chinese market in 2011, crowdfunding has gone through many stages, such as germination, explosion and reduction. After the industry reshuffle, it now presents the status quo of monopoly by Internet giants. The key to this transformation is the success of crowdfunding mechanism design optimization, which directly determines whether the income distribution of various participants in crowdfunding is reasonable, and determines the survival of the crowdfunding model.Product crowdfunding occupies the leading position in the crowdfunding market. However, this model is in a regulatory gap in the Chinese market. The lack of experience and ability of sponsors and the impact of imitator competition have become urgent problems to be solved. At present, there are many articles on the performance influencing factors of crowdfunding and the pricing strategies of sponsors, but most of them fail to show the internal correlation between the performance influencing factors, and they use static empirical methods, ignoring the continuity and dynamics of the crowdfunding process.
This paper applies differential equation and considers discriminatory pricing, network effect and initiator's effort level. By constructing a mathematical model with continuous variables, with the help of variation method, this paper explores the optimal dynamic path of public investors, and on this basis, studies how initiators design the dynamic mechanism of crowdfunding. This paper is committed to optimizing the product crowdfunding mechanism and will focus on the following points: What are the relevant influencing factors of crowdfunding deadline setting? Is there an appropriate interval? In the dynamic change process of crowdfunding stage, what is the change path of the number of investors and the psychological effect of its mapping? What factors affect the best effort level of the sponsor?
The research finds that: Not only there is an upper limit to the financing period of crowdfunding projects, but also the duration of financing is related to product pricing and manufacturing cost. With the increase of the amount of public investors' commitment, theproduction of crowdfunding products realizes scale economy. The popularity of crowdfunding platform, network effect and discriminatory pricing of products will all affect the initiators' optimal effort level. The proposition and inference of this paper provide some verifiable predictions for future empirical research. First of all, when considering the factors that affect the financing term, product pricing and production cost are one of the key factors. Secondly, the choice of the best effort level of the sponsors will be affected by the popularity of crowdfunding platforms, network effects and discriminatory pricing. Through the exploration of this article, it provides theoretical guidance for project sponsors to design the financing period of crowdfunding projects, preset the number of investors, and determine the level of effort, which will help promote the healthy development of crowdfunding industry.

Optimal Mark-up Delay Strategy for Crowdsourcing Contests

BI Gongbing, XU Yang, WU Juan, MA Wenqi

2023, 32(2):  111-116.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0053

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The mark-up delay mechanism of crowdsourcing contests can be used by organizers as a strategy to encourage contestants to improve efforts, this paper establishes a mathematical model which includes an organizer and homogeneous contestants, by introducing parameters such as probability of mark-up delay and sensitivity to mark-up, and studies the balance among contestants and decision-making of the organizer. This paper analyzes pre-conditions where the organizer does not need mark-up delay and where the organizer conducts it, and discusses the optimal incentive strategies of prize and mark-up method. The results show that the organizer does not need mark-up delay when contestants hold high expectation of the probability of it; conducting mark-up delay can increase the organizer's profit when the task is less complex, or contestants' sensitivity is high; the optimal prize increases in task complexity and novelty, and the optimal prize allocation is winner-take-all, and the optimal mark-up method is one-step. By using numerical examples, this paper verifies relevant conclusions, which enrich the theoretical research of crowdsourcing contests and guide the decision-making of organizers in mark-up delay contests.

Benders Decomposition Method for Solving the Location-sizing-allocation Problem of Terror Response Facilities

XIANG Yin

2023, 32(2):  117-123.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0054

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Since the 21st century, terror has become a major threat in the world. To mitigate the effect of terrorist attacks, it is necessary for the State to pre-position enough relief resource before attacks, which raises the location problem of terror response facilities.
This paper considers a new terror response facility location problem which can be treated as a three stage optimization problem. In the first stage, the State determines where to locate terror response facilities and how many resources allocated to those facilities; in the second stage, the Terrorist determines the attack node by knowing the State's decisions in the first stage; in the last stage, the State optimizes a relief resource allocation problem after an attack.
Therefore, the problem is addressed as a tri-level programming model between decision makers of the State and the Terrorist. The upper level model is associated to the facility location and resource pre-position problem of the State, the middle-level model is related to the attack node selection problem of the Terrorist, and the lower-level model refers to the resource allocation problem of the State.
To solve the tri-level model, we first simplified it into a bi-level model by using dual transformation of the lower-level problem, and then linearized the nonlinear product term in the bi-level model by adding variables and constraints, we finally designed a Benders Decomposition algorithm for solving it.
Our model and algorithm is applied in a case study of 16 cities in south Xinjiang province. The results show that: (i)with the increase of relief resource, the State's optimal strategy of locating and sizing has changed greatly. (ii)There is a diminishing marginal utility effect between the amount of relief resource and the attack loss, even its strength is affected by the amount of Terrorist's attack resource. (iii)The Terrorists prefer to attack major cities and those cities without locating facilities.

Research on Site Selection of Distributed Renewable Energy Generation Projects Based on Resource-demand Matching

ZHAO Zhenyu, ZHANG Yao, YU Yongjie

2023, 32(2):  124-131.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0055

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The proportion of distributed renewable power generation (DRPG) in China's power structure continues to expand, and it has become the main development direction of renewable energy. The development of DRPG is conducive to optimizing the energy supply structure, improving energy utilization efficiency, alleviating energy security pressure and reducing environmental pollution. Scientific siting is the key stage for project optimization. At present, the study on macro-siting of DRPG is mostly focused on regional natural and infrastructure resources, and determining the suitable site by considering regional economic, environmental, technical and social criteria. The demand-driven criteria affecting the development of DRPG are not concerned, resulting in imperfect siting criteria. Meanwhile, the siting decision-making model fails to effectively eliminate the influence of subjective intention. It mostly develops the project site in the form of comprehensive evaluation, focusing on the quantity matching, and lacks the consistency reflection of coordination and matching for siting, resulting in inaccurate siting prioritization.
Regional resource conditions and user demands are the basic support for developing DRPG, and DRPG projects are built on the basis of the balance between rational utilization of resources and sufficient satisfaction of demands. Only by combining and pursuing a high matching between resources and demands, can DRPG site scientifically be determined. To resolve the problem of inaccurate prioritization caused by the imperfect processing perspective of criteria and methods, the study proposes a hybrid multi-criteria decision-making technique to select the optimal site based on the matching of resource and demand. The research constructs a siting matching criterion system with resource supply and power demand, which incorporates the resource criteria such as social acceptance and policy support, and demands criteria such as energy security and energy transformation. Based on the prospect inverse value function and variable precision rough number, the subjective weight is improved. From the perspective of matching quantity, an angle cosine siting matching decision model between resources and demands is proposed, a resource-demand matching coordinate system is established, and the matching rank for project site is divided. This study enriches the perspective and method of distributed renewable energy siting, and provides a decision-making basis for siting construction of DRPG projects.
The proposed model is applied to the siting analysis of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects in Beijing, and then compared with a variety of weighting and siting models. The results show that the proposed DRPG siting weight model based on prospect inverse value function and variable precision rough number can better represent the criteria influence on siting decision, reduce the expert subjectivity and ensure the objectivity of evaluation results. The proposed siting model of angle cosine matching degree takes into account the demand motivation and resource support for developing the DRPG, which can better serve the DRPG siting. Resource exploitation potential and energy transformation demand are the most important criteria of resource side and demand side. The resources for developing photovoltaic generation projects in Beijing presents the characteristics of decreasing from the line of Chaoyang, Changping, Yanqing and Tongzhou to both sides, and high in the northeast-low in the southwest. While the demand shows the characteristics of decreasing from the central to the periphery, and high in southeast-low in northeast. Yanqing has the highest matching degree, conversely Shijingshan has the lowest matching degree. The Local Moran's index of matching shows the characteristics of HH clustering in Yanqing, Huairou and Shunyi and LL clustering in Fengtai. The DRPG development in Beijing should be mainly concentrated in the northern region, and the development priority ranking in the central and western region is low.
The article studies the DRPG siting from the matching perspective of resource and demand, which mainly considering the matching quality of renewable energy power generation, but less considering the matching quantity. How to consider the synchronous matching of matching evaluation quantity and matching evaluation quality for developing DRPG projects, so as to further serve micro-siting is the subject for subsequent research.

Integrated Optimization of Reliable Location-path of Supply Network Considering Multi-source Cooperation

REN Hui, WANG Dongyu

2023, 32(2):  132-138.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0056

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Faced with the customer demand supplied by multiple factories, enterprises will build distribution centers between factories and customers to facilitate order distribution. Considering that such a three-level supply network contains multiple transportation paths, and each path has the risk of transportation interruption, the transportation reliability of the whole supply network will face challenges. In order to alleviate the impact of transportation disruption on order distribution, it is necessary to study the integrated optimization of reliable location paths for three-level supply network with multi-source collaborative supply. Under the constraint of facilities (factory, distribution center), a new location-path model is proposed with the goal of the operation cost and the reliability of the transportation. Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm with elitist strategy (NSGA-II) is designed to solve the model. Taking the three-level supply network centered on Beijing and Tianjin as an example, the optimal facilities location and distribution scheme are determined to verify the validity of the model. Sensitivity analysis of the probability of transportation interruption shows that the overall small increase in the candidate path interruption probability will greatly reduce the transportation reliability of the whole network, and the factory-to-distribution center path is the decisive path for a significant reduction in reliability.

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Research on the Strategy of Warning Disclosure for Public Health Emergencies Based on Reference Dependence

GUO Yanan, AN Shi, MAI Qiang

2023, 32(2):  139-146.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0057

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Over the past few years, there have been various public health emergencies around theworld. Warning disclosure is an important part of infectious disease early prevention. Local governments need to be responsible for reporting the epidemic progress to higher authorities timely, while releasing warning to the public and guiding them to take self-protective measures. If local governments delay, conceal, or abandon warning, it is hard for other participants to access epidemic information. Risk communication channels will be broken and negative information such as rumors, misinformation and disinformation will be generated, thus increasing panicofthe public. However, current researches have concerned little about how local governments make strategic choices on warning releasing, especially in unknown epidemic. Toaddressthegap, atripartite evolutionary game model is constructed. This study will guide policy-makers decision making in public health emergencies and provide model support for their formulation of rights, responsibilities.
In existing studies, decision makers have been often assumed to be completely rational. However, in the emergency situation, this is difficulttoachievedue to uncertainty of epidemic, incomplete information, and participants' cognitive limitations. Decision makers are characterized as bounded rationality. Bounded rationality includes a wide range of behavioral tendencies, one of which is the reference dependence proposed by Kahneman and Tversky in prospect theory.According to reference dependence theory, the outcome of participant in decision making is not determined by absolute utility. Rather, it is replaced by subjective perceived utility based on a reference point. Therefore, based on the assumption of bounded rationality, the traditional expected utility function is changed in the model of this paper. The reference dependent theory is introduced to describe the cognition and decision-making rules of participants in emergency situations. First, atripartite evolutionary game model of local government, central government, and the public is established. Second, an interactive behavior of different stakeholders is described by establishing a copy dynamic equation. The model demonstrates the dynamic behavioral trajectory of three participants. Finally, numerical simulation experiments are conducted to test the system stability conditions and the three-party strategy choice under different parameters.
The results show that an increase in the proportion of either central governments supervision or public participation strategies in the initial state positively affects warning disclosure of local governments. The two have formed a benign complementary embedding. In comparison, local governments respond more quickly to the force of central government, and the system reaches a stable state more quickly. For central government, the best strategy among active and passive supervision can be chosen according to the strategy of public (whistle blowers) participation in public health emergencies. The results also show that local governments' warning decisionis determined by theresult of the interactive game between decision makers with different perceived utility. Both the perceived utility and the cost of information disclosure have obvious driving effects on the system evolution. Thesystem issensitiveto both marginaldiminishing sensitivity degree coefficient and the aversion loss degree coefficient. In addition, appropriately increasing the success rate of central government supervision, improving the level of local government risk judgment, and strengthening the accuracy of public information identification areimportant to promote warning disclosure.
To combat other pandemic effectively, our findings have several practice-relevant implications. First, the central government should improve supervision success rate and develop a reasonable institutions of local government accountability. A fault tolerance mechanism and an exemption clause should be established as a way to encourage local governments to disclosure warning in the public health emergencies. Second, local governments should have clear, objective and realistic understanding of risk information. They should try to avoid mistakes like avoidance of accountability, cognitive bias, and risk aversion in decision-making.They should reduce the value judgment of local government officials on the cost of warning dissemination by unblocking information channels, improving the scope of information delivery, and enhancing the effectiveness of risk communication.The negative economic and social impacts of epidemic outbreak need to be fully understood by local policy-makers in public health emergencies. Third, incentives should be given to promote whistle blowers to participate in early warning of infectious diseases. Appropriate involvement of social forces represented by NGO, enterprises and citizens could help the government to avoid the problems of “information noise” and “information overload”. In order to effectively prevent the overall failure of epidemic warning, the policy-makers need to recognize the legitimacy of community self-organized warning dissemination.
There are still some limitations that can be worked for by further study. First, the parameter setting of numerical simulation relies on interview data, rather than observations of real cases. Additional validation will be done by collecting official data. Second, only the relationship between upper and lower levels of government is considered. The exchange of warning between governments at the same level during public health emergencies also needs to be considered in future studies.

Research on the Community Security Risk Assessment Index System Based on FAHP-FTOPSIS from the Perspective of the Pandemic——A Case Study of Communities in A Certain City

ZHU Jianian, ZOU Kai, XIANG Shang, GAO Kai

2023, 32(2):  147-151.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0058

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In order to accurately and effectively help the relevant departments at the higher level to accurately develop community-based COVID-19 outbreak prevention and control programs, we propose a framework for decision support in response to the current outbreak situation.In response to the actual needto help the government classify and determine the size of community safety risks from the perspective of the epidemic, a community epidemic risk assessment index system is proposed. To effectively assist decision-makers in developing outbreak prevention and control plans, this paper provides a new approach to risk factor assessment from the perspective of outbreak prevention and control as well as supporting decision-making. We develop epidemic risk assessment indicators for relevant communities with the aim of preventing the spread of the epidemic on a community basis, using FAHP as the criterion for calculating the indicator weights and will combine it with the FTOPSIS paradigm to calculate the true epidemic risk factor for the selected communities and an evaluation model is established by combining the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy distance between superior and inferior solutions (FAHP-TOPSIS). The subjectivity and ambiguity of language variables in expert evaluation are expressed by triangular fuzzy numbers. The integrated fuzzy evaluation is obtained by taking A, B, C, and D communities as examples. Then, the corresponding community security risk value and ranking are calculated through the FAHP-FTOPSIS model.Through comparison and analysis, it is concluded that the model is more effective and accurate. This plan also provides a reference for the government to accurately implement policies, and prevent and control deployment.The effect of our proposed model has a greater advantage over the traditional decision model, as reflected in our ability to provide decision makers with certain decisions in the form of fine-grained indicators, and our effect is more effective than the traditional approach, solving the competent ambiguity brought about by the expert scoring of previous studies and reducing the bias brought about by subjectivity to a certain extent. Subsequent research can be further explored and studied for how to eliminate subjectivity,the method proposed in this paper makes certain exploration and assumptions for the field of epidemic prevention and control, and future research ideas can start from the overall decision-making. The research idea of dynamic selection through fuzzy sets and triangular fuzzy numbers is adjusted, and how to further explore in depth the new field of intelligent decision-making today, and the decision paradigm in future research is not necessarily limited to a specific field but experiments and research in multiple fields to truly achieve macroscopic global considerations for decision-makers.We alsobelieve that further studies can provide more accurate outbreak assessments with respect to the transmission pathways of the epidemic and the way the epidemic is traced, thus providing more comprehensive thoughts and ideal decision-makers effectively. Finally, we also believe that the follow-up study should consider how the different weights of indicators affect the assessment objectives as well as the assessment subjects and that the trade-off indicators regarding the model capabilities can be analyzed in depth because the assessment indicators of the results are not unique, and one indicator may lead to very different results, so the diversity of assessment instruments should also be one of the focuses of the follow-up study. The follow-up research will focus on intelligent decision-aided deployment to provide support and help for realistic and complex scenarios of deployment and control, which is also the focus and difficulty of the work, and has the possibility of intelligent decision-making.

Hierarchical Response Model of Subway Multi Department Cooperation Anti Epidemic Based on Subway Security Inspection White List System

LI Delong, LIU Dehai, BAI Yuntao

2023, 32(2):  152-158.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0059

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Under the dual pressure of epidemic prevention and control and work resumption, the subway faces with the problem of balancing epidemic risk and travel efficiency. How to improve the coordination level of epidemic prevention departments, security inspection departments and operation departments is not only the practice of implementing the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council, but also an important path to solve the above problems. Based on the characteristics of the subway security inspection white list system, this paper proposes a hierarchical response model of the subway multi department cooperative epidemic resistance. The research not only provides a reference for the subway department or other public places to cooperate in anti epidemic, but also helps to promote the improvement and promotion of the subway security inspection white list system. Firstly, according to the special management and control requirements during the epidemic period, based on Fennelly's improved Wells Riley virus infection model and subway passenger stagnation prediction model, this paper constructs the passenger stagnation prediction model and virus infection model in the subway epidemic prevention and control waiting inspection area, the prohibited goods waiting inspection area and the waiting area, which provide theoretical reference models for the subway departments to evaluate the risk of epidemic prevention and control. Secondly, according to the principle of graded response to emergencies and the subway security inspection white list system, this paper constructs a three-level collaborative anti epidemic emergency response model, and gives a multi department collaborative decision-making mechanism with epidemic infection risk prevention and control as the primary strategy trigger condition and passenger general stagnation risk prevention and control as the secondary strategy trigger condition. It provides a decision-making basis for the subway departments to balance the risk of epidemic prevention and control and the risk of passenger general stagnation. In this paper, the unified dispatching decision-making process of the emergency command and dispatching center is given: (1)We assess the risk threshold of epidemic prevention and control in each region and the risk threshold of passenger general stagnation in each region. (2)We determine the threshold of epidemic prevention and control risk level in each region, and determine the threshold of passenger general stagnation risk level in each region. (3)We convert level values of the passenger general stagnation corresponding to the epidemic prevention and control risk thresholds, and rank them in order with the risk thresholds of passenger general stagnation. (4)We develop the subway passenger stagnation scheduling model based on the principle of epidemic prevention and control. The study finds that: (1)The level of resource allocation of epidemic prevention departments, security inspection departments and operation departments is positively correlated to their diversion capacity of passengers, and unified allocation of emergency resources is helpful for improving the efficiency of resource allocation and inter department coordination. (2)It is easy for a large resource allocation gap between departments to increase the risk of epidemic infection in low allocation areas, thus frequently triggering the policy update conditions of each department and reducing the coordination efficiency between departments. The passenger diversion and flow control capacity of departments with large resource allocation is significantly higher than that of departments with low resource allocation, while the departments with low resource allocation are more sensitive to passenger flow, which is likely to cause waste of system resources and imbalance of cooperation between departments. (1)The subway security inspection white list system is still in its infancy, and it does not have the ability to assist in coping with COVID-19 currently. However, with the continuous development of the social security joint prevention and control network, smart city and subway security technology, the subway security inspection white list system will have a higher scientific and technological attribute, and its application potential will be further improved. (2)This work lacks consideration of the factors that affect the effectiveness of the model, such as the equilibrium of passenger flow distribution at each entrance, the equilibrium of white list passengers arrival distribution, and the equilibrium of subway train number direction of the checked passengers. These practical problems will also further enrich the conclusions of this study. At last, thanks to the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71874024, 72274030, 72201051) and the Natural Science Foundation of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China (2022QN07003) for their support of this paper.

Comparative Analysis of Government Carbon Tax Policy on Three Remanufacturing Modes

XIA Xiqiang, WU Xiaoqing

2023, 32(2):  159-165.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0060

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With the rapidly developing economy, the consumption of natural resources has increased tremendously and the environment has been seriously polluted. Under the constraint of government policies on carbon emissions, manufacturers are facing the challenge of reducing carbon emissions through remanufacturing or low-carbon emission reduction technologies. However, remanufacturing requires high-level production technology and the revenue of the remanufactured product is lower than that of the new product, so the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) generally abandons remanufacturing and chooses it to be done by an independent remanufacturer or through authorization. This article analyzes the impact of the government's implementation of carbon tax policy on the decision-making of the game subjects under different remanufacturing modes by establishing three OEM and remanufacturer game models. The first is the independent remanufacturing model, in which the remanufacturing is carried out by an independent third-party remanufacturer; the second is the authorized remanufacturing model, in which the OEM authorizes the remanufacturer to undertake remanufacturing through a patent authorization; and the third is the outsourcing remanufacturing model, in which the OEM pays the outsourcing cost to the remanufacturer for remanufacturing. Based on three remanufacturing game models, the article comparatively analyzes the effect of carbon tax policies on the equilibrium solutions of different remanufacturing models. The main findings of the study are as follows: 1)When the number of remanufactured products demanded is not limited by the number of recycled products, the adoption of the carbon tax policy by the government will reduce the demand for new products and increase the demand for remanufactured products. Regardless of the carbon tax levied by the government on the OEM, the lowest demand for new products and the highest demand for remanufactured products can be achieved when the outsourcing remanufacturing model is adopted. 2)Under the carbon tax policy, the profit of outsourcing remanufacturing will be optimal when the acceptance of remanufactured products by consumers is high, and conversely, the profit of the OEM and remanufacturer will be the highest when the authorized remanufacturing model is undertaken. 3)The implementation of the carbon tax policy by the government is beneficial to the environment, and all three remanufacturing modes can reduce the environmental impact. However, the impact ratio of new products to remanufactured products on the environment is different, and the three remanufacturing models have different environmental effects. 4) The carbon tax policy will decrease the surplus of consumers and society, which will be the maximum when manufacturers undertake the independent remanufacturing model and the minimum when undertaking the outsourcing remanufacturing model. This is mainly related to the degree of competition in the market for new and remanufactured products. Management implications are: When the demand for remanufactured products is unrestricted by the recycling volume of scrap products, and the government will implement the carbon tax policy, the royalties paid by remanufacturers will be reduced, which can appeal to more enterprises for remanufacturing, and the authorized remanufacturing mode will be more beneficial to the development of the remanufacturing industry in this case. When the demand for remanufactured products is restricted by the number of recycled products, and the government will implement the carbon tax policy, the OEM will increase the outsourcing remanufacturing costs paid to the remanufacturer, and it will be more favorable to the development of the remanufacturing industry to adopt the outsourcing remanufacturing model at this time. The government carries out the carbon tax policy for all three remanufacturing modes that are beneficial to the environmental effect. When the environmental influence of new products and remanufactured products is relatively great, the government shall encourage the independent remanufacturing mode, and conversely, the government should encourage enterprises to resort to outsourcing remanufacturing model.

Research on Strategy of Online Retailers Entering Rebate Channel Considering Consumer Rebate Redemption Behavior

MU Lifeng, TANG Xin

2023, 32(2):  166-172.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0061

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Based on the consumer utility theory and Stackelberg Game theory, we construct the sales models of online retailers entering the rebate channels of the third-party rebate platforms under centralized and decentralizedsystem respectively when considering consumer rebate redemption behavior. The channel selection strategy and pricing strategy of an online retailer, the optimal rebate strategy of a third-party rebate platform and the impact of consumer rebate redemption behavior and convenience of rebate channel on these strategies are analyzed. The results indicate that online retailers canrealize the transformation from single rebate channel to dual-channel by adjusting consumers' acceptance of rebate channel and redemption probability of rebate. Rebate channel provides online retailer a chance to raise price through a single rebate channel, while pricing strategies remain unchanged under the dual-channel strategy both in centralized system and decentralized system, which results in the illusion of price reduction under the dual channel strategywhen considering consumer rebate redemption behavior. In order to maintain cooperation with online retailers, the third-party rebate platforms can stimulate consumers' rebate redemption behavior through email, SMS and other forms.

Analyzing the Knowledge Diffusion among Multiple Projects and Its Impact on the Program

ZOU Xingqi, YANG Qing, WANG Qinru

2023, 32(2):  173-179.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0062

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Enterprises need a large number of new product development projects to gain competitive advantages, so knowledge diffusion in the process of new product development is particularly important. The paper focuses on the knowledge diffusion among multiple projects in the program. The program is a group of interrelated and coordinated among projects. Due to the dependency relationship between projects, the success of a project will enable the accumulated knowledge to be transferred to other projects in the program. The transfer of knowledge from one project to another is called knowledge diffusion. Specifically, knowledge diffusion means that the knowledge (including explicit and implicit knowledge) acquired by the research & development (R&D) team in one project can be transferred to other projects, thus driving the success of a series of other projects in the program. In all, the enterprise can continuously improve their R&D capabilities to better develop future products by transferring knowledge. Therefore, knowledge diffusion is conducive to improving success probability of the whole project program and promoting the sustainable development of enterprise. So, it is of great significance to analyze knowledge diffusion among projects.
To solve the problem of knowledge diffusion in the program, the paper proposes a quantitative analysis method based on the SIR (Susceptible Infected Recovered) model, so as to measure the efficiency of knowledge diffusion more accurately. Firstly, we build the communication network between teams, which is a directed weighted graph constructed with the project as the node and the communication frequency between teams as the edge. The direction of “edge” reflects the communication between teams, and the value (weight) of “edge” represents the communication frequency between teams. Then we use the Dependency Structure Matrix (DSM) and “tie strength” to measure the probability of knowledge diffusion among teams. The DSM is the form of matrix to represent the communication network. In the communication DSM, the “columns” in the matrix represent the project team's communication to other teams (i.e., output communication), the “rows” represent the project team's communication from other teams (i.e., input communication), and the non-diagonal numbers represent the communication frequency between project teams. The tie strength can be calculated by the proportion of the dependency between node i and j in all sending and receiving relations of the node i. Then, based on the characteristics of knowledge diffusion in the program, the paper defines the project teams as “knowledge diffuser”, “knowledge receiver”, “potential knowledge diffuser” and “knowledge immunity”. Knowledge diffuser refers to a project team that has mastered a certain type of knowledge and has the ability to transfer knowledge. Knowledge receiver refers to a project team that has the ability to accept knowledge. Potential knowledge diffuser refers to a project team that has acquired a certain kind of knowledge, but does not have the ability to transfer it. Knowledge immunity refers to a project team that temporarily withholds or does not diffuse knowledge from other project teams. We measure the probability of projects in different states and project knowledge level. Further, the SIR model is used to build the dynamic model of knowledge diffusion in the program network, and the dynamic propagation process of knowledge is simulated and analyzed. Finally, a certain program is taken as an example toverify the effectiveness of the model and method proposed in the paper. And, we establish the measurement indicators to analyze the efficiency of knowledge diffusion. The results show that in the process of multi-project research and development, the following measures can be taken to promote new knowledge or technology more efficiently and improve the performance of knowledge diffusion, such as improving the communication frequency between teams, strengthening the knowledge diffusion willingness of knowledge diffuser and the acceptance degree of knowledge receiver to new knowledge and improveing the knowledge diffusion ability of the project team and the ability to accept new knowledge again. In the future studies, we can further analyze the dynamic propagation mechanism of knowledge in the program and the influence of the variation of propagation probability on the performance of program. In addition, how to measure the effect and efficiency of knowledge diffusion in the program from other perspectives and what other factors affect the dynamic transmission of knowledge between projects are also worth further research.


Credit Insurance Decision Analysis of SMEs under Bank Financing

LIU Tianzhuo, WANG Yifan, YANG Feng, BI Chen

2023, 32(2):  180-186.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0063

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This paper considers a supply chain financing system composed of a manufacturer (SMEs), a bank and an insurance company, and discusses the influence of limited credit and credit insurance on the manufacturer's production and operation decisions under three supply chain financing modes: traditional bank financing, exogenous premium and endogenous premium. We find that credit insurance can effectively alleviate the financing defects of limited credit and reduce the market risk faced by the manufacturer. However, the credit insurance model is not completely superior to the traditional bank financing model. For example, in the case of exogenous premium, the excessively high premium rate will force the manufacturer to abandon the credit insurance to avoid the high premium cost. Our study shows that, compared with the exogenous premium model, it is more difficult for the manufacturer to mitigate market risks under the endogenous premium model. The management implications are that it is meaningless for the manufacturer to carry out excessive credit insurance under the endogenous premium mode, the manufacturer simply need to set the insured amount at a level that will allow the bank to relax loan limit to meet normal production.

Impact of Financial Liberalization on Industrial Structure Optimization Based on Threshold Effect

ZHANG Chao

2023, 32(2):  187-192.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0064

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Since 2016, China has carried out preliminary type improvement and structural adjustment of industrial structure, striving to establish and perfect the modern industrial system. The background of the 14th Five-Year Plan also provides a correct and effective path for the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure. In the 15 years after 2020, China should guide and optimize the allocation of market resources with precise strategies and appropriate supervision, strengthen the weak links in the slowing industrial development, promote the transformation of industry from heavy industry to heavy high-tech, upgrade the production mode of traditional industries such as agriculture, forestry, husbandry and non-fishery, attach importance to the development of high-end manufacturing, and vigorously promote the independent innovation of technology, thus forming a system of high-quality economic development. It can be seen that how to create a high-quality system environment that matches the development goal has become an important practical problem in the development practice. Based on the reform of financial liberalization, this paper explores the impact of financial liberalization on the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure with the help of the panel data of 30 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China from 2001 to 2019. The results show that financial liberalization is conducive to the development of China's industrial structure towards rationalization and upgrading, and there are regional differences in this impact. The role of the eastern region is the strongest, the western region is the second strongest, and the role of the central region is not significant. Further panel threshold effect test shows that when financial liberalization is taken as the threshold variable, there will be a double threshold effect on the impact of financial liberalization on the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure. When the first threshold is not crossed, this effect will be inhibition. Between the two thresholds, this effect changes from inhibition to promotion. After crossing the second threshold, this effect is still positive, but the promotion degree has been significantly reduced. The empirical evidence in this paper provides a reference basis for continuous promotion of financial liberalization reform and improvement of the financial system arrangement for the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure.Based on the research conclusions, the policy implications of this paper are as follows: First, we should continue to unswervingly and steadily promote the reform policy of financial liberalization, break the mode of excessive government intervention in the allocation of financial resources, gradually establish a financial system with free and orderly competition, build a high-quality financial system environment, so as to better serve the function of financial services to the real economy and promote the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure. Secondly, according to the unbalanced characteristics of regional economic and financial development, the financial liberalization policies in various regions should be adjusted stably and appropriately. The financial development and industrial structure upgrading and transformation of the eastern region is better than that of the central and western region, so the financial liberalization policy of the eastern region can better match the demand of the current industrial structure transformation. The central and western region should formulate appropriate financial liberalization policy according to the development and transformation degree of the industrial structure, and grasp the degree of financial liberalization reform, thus promoting the coordinated development and transformation and upgrading of industrial structure. Third, the financial liberalization policy must meet the needs of industrial structure transformation, for excessive liberalization may lead to market failure. The government should fulfill its responsibilities, adhere to the orderly course of liberalization, flexibly apply the mode of financial liberalization, pay attention to the construction of legal framework, improve government administrative efficiency and other mechanisms, and reduce the frequency of financial risks in the process of liberalization, so as to improve the feedback effect mechanism of industrial structure optimization and adjustment.

Research on the Influencing Factors of the Usefulness of Online Reviews——Moderation Effects of Brand Reputation and Product Type

CHEN Ruixia, LI Yuanyuan

2023, 32(2):  193-199.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0065

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With the popularity of mobile internet, online market has developed rapidly in China, and a large number of online reviews have been generated at the same time. Online reviews break the restrictions of time and place and provide consumers with a great deal of information. At present, online reviews have become an important factor affecting consumption decisions. However, too much information can increase the cost of consumer collection, so it is important to identify useful online comment. The usefulness of online reviews refers to the usefulness of online reviews to purchase decisions. Almost all online shopping platforms have a review evaluation system, so that consumers can give priority to the information with higher evaluation.
According to the existing research, the number of reviews, the depth of reviews, the valence of reviews and additional reviews are important factors affecting the usefulness of online reviews. In addition, brand reputation and product type have a significant impact on consumer decision-making and the usefulness of online reviews. Brand reputation is the comprehensive evaluation and overall perception of a brand. A good brand reputation can make consumers associate with good product quality, so as to reduce the purchase risk and enhance the confidence. Based on the ability of consumers to obtain product information, products are divided into search products and experience products. Search products refer to the fact that consumers can collect information through different channels. When enough information is collected, they can more accurately know the characteristics of products, such as mobile phones. Such products tend to have uniform measurement standards, and a wide range of information can be collected to get a clear picture of product performance. As there is no unified objective evaluation standard for experience products, it is not possible to fully understand the product characteristics only through information search, such as sports shoes, so it must be through personal experience. Therefore, when studying the impact of the number, depth, price and additional comments on the usefulness of online reviews, we should consider the moderating effect of brand reputation and product type to clarify the internal mechanism.
In addition, most of the existing studies use questionnaires to obtain data, with a limited number of samples and are away from the actual purchasing environment, which may not reflect the real evaluation. In recent years, the use of natural data from real online shopping platforms to conduct review usefulness research began to rise. However, from the existing research, there are still few relevant studies, and the conclusions are inconsistent, so further research is needed.
Based on the review data of 24 brands in Jingdong Online mall over a period of one month, a panel regression model is constructed to study the effects of the number of reviews, depth of reviews, the valence of reviews and additional reviews on the usefulness of online reviews, and to test the moderating effects of brand reputation and product type. In this study, mobile phones are selected as search products and sports shoes as experience products. There are 12 mobile phone brands such as Apple, Samsung and VIVO, and 12 sneaker brands such as Nike, Converse and Anta. Octopus software is used to collect customer reviews of these 24 brands from September 21 to October 20, 2020 on Jingdong Online mall. A total of 44341 reviews is collected. After sorting, panel data of these 24 brands for 30 days are obtained. Next, through the regression analysis of the above panel data, the influencing factors and boundary conditions of the usefulness of online reviews are discussed.
The empirical results show that the number of reviews and additional reviews are positive, the valence of reviews is negative, and the reviews depth has no effect on the usefulness of online reviews. Brand reputation moderates the relationship between the number of reviews, additional reviews and the valence of reviews on the usefulness of online reviews. Compared with high brand reputation products, low brand reputation products are the most significant of the above three relationships. Product type moderates the effects of the number of reviews, additional reviews and the valence of reviews on the usefulness of reviews. Compared with experience products, search products are the most significant of the above three effects.
Due to the limitation of research conditions, there are some deficiencies in this research. Because different websites have different online review methods and evaluation systems, this paper only selects the data of Jingdong Online mall for research. In the future, we can consider expanding the sample size to different platforms for further research. This paper examines the moderating effects of brand reputation and product type, but there may be other moderating variables that can be further explored in the future.

Evaluation and Application of Legalized Business Environment Based on IGWO-SVM Model

WEN Chuan, JI Guangyue

2023, 32(2):  200-206.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0066

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In order to achieve a high-precision law-based business environment assessment and improve the performance of the support vector machine (SVM), the improved grey wolf optimization algorithm(IGWO)is applied to the legalized business environment assessment SVM model, this paper establishes the IGWO-SVM model of business environment evaluation based on 13 two-level evaluation indexes of business environment of rule by law, Business Law Enforcement Environment, business judicial environment and business compliance environment. Classification accuracy(ACC) , Sensitivity(Sensitivity), Specificity(Specificity)and Carl Friedrich Philipp von Martius correlation coefficient(MCC)were compared among GA-SVM, PSO-SVM and GWO-SVM, the IGWO-SVM model has higher precision, efficiency and stability, which provides a new method for business environment assessment.

UGC Media Platforms and Content Generators' Decision Making under Different Ad Delivery Models

ZHU Xingzhen, LI Li, HE Xiang, ZHANG Hua, HU Jiao

2023, 32(2):  207-213.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0067

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In UGC media platforms, content generators upload the content they produce, and consumers watch it through the platform. Along with the advancement of communication technology, these types of platforms have grown rapidly in recent years. In the UGC media market where there are multiple content generators and different types of consumers, we compare and analyze the revenue of the platform and content generators under three advertising modes: advertising by the platform, advertising by content generators and advertising by both. This paper explores the selection conditions of different advertising modes, and the effects of the number of content generators and the time-critical features of consumers on the level of advertising between platforms and content generators, and the level of content production efforts of content generators under different advertising modes. This paper expands the discussion on the mode of advertising in UGC platforms, and supplements the research related to the mode of advertising by content generators in the platforms, with a view to providing certain operational management suggestions for UGC platforms.
By constructing the Salop circular city model, a monopolistic UGC media platform is assumed to exist in the market, and consumers are uniformly distributed over a unit circular city of overall size 1. In the hypothetical UGC media platform in this paper, the main source of revenue for content generators is the revenue sharing of the platform and advertising revenue; the main source of revenue for the platform is the network externalities brought to it by consumers and advertising revenue. The model is solved by the inverse solution method and the equilibrium solution is further analyzed by applying numerical analysis.
The main finding of this study is that UGC media platforms are able to generate the most revenue for themselves in the advertising model, which is the main source of revenue for the platforms, and that the platforms can increase their revenue level by advertising wisely; while content generators do not always prefer the advertising model because too much advertising means that content generators may have to make more efforts to retain consumers, which can lead to a significant increase in costs for content generators. In addition, this study concludes that: 1)the increase in the number of content generators in the platform will reduce the motivation of content generators and the level of revenue for content generators; while the platform always wants more content generators to join, which will lead to higher revenue for the platform; for consumers, the increase in the number of content generators means that the quality of content they watch will be lower and the number of ads they need to watch will be lower. 2)The increase in time-based consumers may reduce content generators' incentive to create; as leisure-based consumers decrease, content generators or platforms may need to increase the level of advertising to compensate for the loss caused by the decrease in potential consumers; both platforms and content generators prefer to have more leisure-based consumers in the market, which will bring them higher revenue. 3)Platforms always get the best benefit from their own participation in advertising models. When consumers have a low level of aversion to advertising by content generators, platforms may allow content generators to advertise alongside their own advertising, while when consumers have a high level of aversion to advertising by content generators, platforms prefer a model in which only they advertise.
In the further study, this paper tries to consider the endogenous situation of revenue sharing between platforms and content generators. In addition, this paper assumes a fully covered monopoly market, and the situation when the market is not fully covered or when there is competition deserves further examination.

The Impact of Carbon Emission Trading on Enterprise Market Power from the Perspective of Carbon Emission Reduction Technology

ZHOU Chunling, XU Dafeng

2023, 32(2):  214-219.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0068

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The process of global warming has intensified since the 21st century. As a responsible developing country, China has shown a positive attitude in the process of coping with global warming, and made solemn commitments to the world to “peak carbon dioxide” by 2030 and “carbon neutrality” by 2060. The “double carbon” strategy has pointed out the direction for the development of our country's low-carbon economy, and the realization of the “double carbon” strategy needs to stimulate the motivation of enterprises to reduce emissions. As an important institutional arrangement for realizing a low-carbon economy, our country's national carbon trading market was formally established in 2021 after preliminary trials in seven provinces and cities including Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Hubei, Guangdong and Shenzhen.This system attempts to make emission reduction technology an active behavior of enterprises through economic incentives and punishments, which can lay a solid micro foundation for the development of my country's low-carbon economy. At present, enterprises participating in carbon trading in our country often have the characteristics of oligopoly. Based on the competition of emission reduction technologies, carbon trading will break the old balance of market power of oligopoly enterprises. Analyzing the impact of carbon trading on the market power of oligopolistic enterprises, on the one hand, can gain insight into the changes in the industry competition pattern caused by the carbon trading system; on the other hand, it can find the key variables that affect the market power of enterprises under carbon trading can provide policies for improving the efficiency of carbon trading tool.
The paper argues that researching the decision-making behavior of oligopoly enterprises under carbon trading based on the Cournot model is not consistent with reality. The Stackberg model is more suitable for the study of the uneven characteristics of carbon emission reduction among enterprises. Based on the Stackelberg model, the paper theoretically analyzes the impact of carbon trading on the market power of oligopoly enterprises from the perspective of emission reduction technologies among oligopoly enterprises. The results show that the relative size of the initial carbon emission coefficient is a key variable affecting the market power of oligopoly enterprises, for the relative size of the initial carbon emission coefficient has different effects on the market power of enterprises with different maturity levels of carbon emission reduction technologies. When the emission reduction technology is immature, the greater the ratio of the initial carbon emission coefficient between the follower enterprise and the leading enterprise, the more carbon trading is conducive to the strengthening of the market power of the leading enterprise, and carbon trading will widen the difference in market power among enterprises. When the emission reduction technology is mature , the larger the ratio of the initial carbon emission coefficient of the follower firm to the leader firm, the more carbon trading is beneficial to the follower firm to enhance its market power, and carbon trading so as to narrow the difference in market power among oligopolistic firms.
The results of the paper indicate that in the process of carrying out carbon trading, we should fully consider the status quo of the emission reduction technology of oligopoly enterprises, and use the carbon emission coefficient as an anchor to guide oligopoly enterprises to carry out healthy competition. Thus, we can realize the relationship changes between leading enterprises and following enterprises' roles and market positions. Changes may prevent leading companies from forming a long-term monopoly, thereby improving market efficiency. While carbon trading has changed corporate behavior, it will also change the competitive landscape of the market. Under the carbon trading system, the empirical analysis of the market power changes caused by the emission reduction technology competition among oligopoly enterprises is a direction for further research in the future. The influence of linear market demand for products and the cost function form of carbon emission reduction technologies on the conclusion also needs further evaluation.

Management Science

Impact of Real Estate Investment on Green Total Factor Productivity——An Empirical Study Based on Spatial Durbin Model

CAO Ze, LIU Xing

2023, 32(2):  220-225.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0069

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In response to climate change, China made a solemn commitment to “achieve peak carbon and carbon neutrality” during the 2021 National People's Congress. In the government work report in 2021, “achieving peak carbon and carbon neutrality” is listed as one of the key tasks in 2021. “The 14th Five-Year Plan also includes the accelerated promotion of green and low-carbon development. In terms of urban pollution sources, the real estate industry takes up a large proportion, and its rapid development has driven the development of heavy polluting industries such as upstream and downstream chemical industries, manufacturing industries, mining industries, smelting industries, etc., which consume a large amount of steel, wood, cement and glass, as well as huge amounts of electricity consumption in China. These high energy-consuming industrial enterprises with low innovation have increased their production capacity, hindering the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure and green urban development.
Although real estate development investment can drive local economic growth, it consumes excessive resources and causes environmental pollution, which also has to attract attention. Under the judgment of In view of the shift of China's economy to a stage of high-quality development, it is of theoretical significance to study the impact of real estate development investment on high-quality economic development and to promote energy conservation, emission reduction and green transformation of the real estate industry. This study characterizes the level of high-quality economic development through urban green total factor productivity and empirically investigates the impact of real estate investment on GTFP from a national and regional perspective using the spatial Durbin model. This complements the theoretical study of real estate investment and high-quality economic growth, and provides a reference for the sustainable development of China's real estate industry and economy.
The SBM-GML index model was used to measure the green total factor productivity index characterizing urban economic quality development indicators from 2006 to 2018, using 286 cities in China as the research target. First, the impact of real estate investment on GTFP and spatial spillover effects are analyzed empirically at the national level. Then, cities are divided into eastern, central and western cities to study the spatial differences in the impact of real estate investment on GTFP.
The results show that: (1)there is a spatial spillover effect of urban GTFP and it is significant, and the increase of GTFP in this region will promote GTFP in the neighboring regions; (2)at the national level, there are significant negative direct and indirect effects of real estate investment on GTFP, as well as negative effects on GTEC and GTTC, which are decomposed from GTFP. (3)from a regional perspective, there is regional heterogeneity in the degree of inhibition of real estate investment on green total factor productivity, with the largest direct effect on the eastern region and the smallest on the western region, and the largest indirect effect on the central region and the smallest on the western region.

Incentive Mechanism of Unemployed Insured Worker Based on Two-stage Multitasking Moral Hazard Model

LI Tiening, LI Xi, LI Yulin, ZHANG Juliang

2023, 32(2):  226-232.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0070

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At present, the Chinese government attaches great importance to unemployment insurance and re-employment. The State Council, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security of China issued special documents successively in 2017 and 2019 on returning and subsidizing unemployed workers' skills upgrading. However, unlike endowment insurance and medical insurance, unemployment insurance can only be entrusted by the state and provided by unemployment insurance institutions, so the moral hazard problem is serious. If this kind of problem cannot be curbed in time, it will lead to a large amount of unemployment insurance fund consumption, and reduce the unemployment insurance fund for the re-employment engineering guarantee function. Therefore, the research in this paper is of important theoretical value and practical reference value for using economic means to prevent the moral hazard of unemployed insured workers. Most domestic and foreign literature focuses on the perspective of labor economics and studies the indirect influencing factors of the moral hazard of unemployment insurance. However, realistic unemployment insurance's specific form of moral hazard has not been studied deeply. This paper takes enterprise unemployed insured worker as the research object, combining with the latest relevant incentives of state unemployment insurance, and constructs the compound two-stage multitasking incentive model for unemployed insured workers by basing principal-agent theory which aims at the three typical moral hazards of voluntary unemployment, delayed employment and hidden employment that may occur during the unemployment period of insured workers at the two stages of the qualification review and treatment provided, and uses Matlab2017b simulation to show the relationship between the main influencing factors and optimal incentive factors. In this paper, the key ideas of complex two-stage multi-task incentive model are as follows: On the one hand, Jarque's (2010) expression of income function $S_{t}=\sum_{\tau=1}^{t} \eta^{t-\tau} e_{\tau}$ is used for reference. Among them, the effort level e_τ is further decomposed into avoiding voluntary unemployment, e₁ avoiding delaying employment e₂ and avoiding implicit employment e₃. λ stands for η, which means the influence factor of the efforts at the qualification examination stage on the efforts at the treatment disbursement stage. λ is used to combine the qualification examination stage with the treatment issue stage. The benefits brought to the unemployment insurance institution by the self-discipline efforts of the employees participating in unemployment insurance can be expressed as $S_{t}=\sum_{\tau=1}^{t} \eta^{t-\tau} e_{\tau}e_{1}+\left[\left(\lambda e_{1}+e_{2}\right)^{1-r}+\left(\lambda e_{1}+e_{3}\right)^{1-r}\right]^{\frac{1}{1-r}}$ . On the other hand, the cost function formula $C_3=\frac{1}{2}\left(e_{1}^{2}+e_{2}^{2}+e_{3}^{2}\right)+r_{1} e_{1} e_{2}+r_{2} e_{2} e_{3}+r_{3} e_{1} e_{3}$ of Tang et al(2013)is used for reference. It describes the costs incurred by the self-discipline efforts of unemployed workers to avoid three kinds of moral hazard, adds the two-stage self-discipline factor λ into the model. The cost function becomes $\frac{1}{2}\left[e_{1}^{2}+\left(\lambda e_{1}+e_{2}\right)^{2}+\left(\lambda e_{1}+e_{3}\right)^{2}\right]+r_{1}e_{1}\left(\lambda_{1}+e_{2}\right)+r_{2}\left(\lambda_1+e_{2}\right)\left(\lambda e_{1}+e_{3}\right)+r_{3}e_{1}\left(\lambda e_1+e_{3}\right)$ . The research conclusion shows: First, with the increase of the proportion of unemployment insurance expense by the insured employees when they are on the job, or the increase of the proportion of skill improvement subsidies allocated by the social security institutions, the positive incentives for insured employees' avoiding the three moral hazard self-discipline efforts should be increased; Second, with the increasing influence between self-discipline efforts of the two-stages moral hazard, the positive incentives for insured employees' avoiding voluntary unemployment self-discipline efforts and hidden employment self-discipline efforts should be increased, while the positive incentives for avoiding delayed employment self-discipline efforts should be reduced. Third, under the condition that the proportion of job stabilization returns increases, the positive incentives for avoiding voluntary unemployment and the hidden employment self-discipline efforts should be appropriately reduced, while the positive incentives for the delayed employment self-discipline efforts of insured employees should be increased. Future research can focus on the specific situation of moral hazard of unemployed insured workers and other types of compound incentive models can be further designed according to the specific situation of moral hazard of unemployed insured workers, or moral hazard and adverse selection can be combined to design incentive models.

Effectiveness of Industrial-scale Trial Production: Role of Actor Network Management and Organizational Learning

ZHANG Ruxin, LIN Jun, LI Suicheng, CAI Ying

2023, 32(2):  233-239.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2023.0071

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Industrial-scale trial production is an important link in up-scaling laboratory results and is accelerating the transformation of scientific and technological achievements. Actor network management provides the possibility for industrial-scale trial production to acquire key knowledge capabilities and break through resource dilemmas. However, whether enterprises can effectively absorb and digest heterogeneous knowledge capabilities in the network requires organizational learning to play a key role. The research reveals that the actor activation/deactivation strategy and goal-achieving strategy in actor network management significantly enhance the effectiveness of industrial-scale trial production, learning by doing in organizational learning has a stronger impact on the effectiveness of industrial-scale trial production than learning by using,and learning by doing and learning by using respectively play a partial mediating role between the actor activation/deactivation strategy and goal-achieving strategy and the effectiveness of industrial-scale trial production. The research reveals the mechanism of action of actor network management on the effectiveness of industrial-scale trial-manufacture, which helps to further clarify the process, system and structure of industrial-scale trial-manufacture management.