Table of Content

25 November 2022, Volume 31 Issue 11

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Network Modeling and Research Method of Joint Logistics Support System

CHEN Xiao-nan, HU Jian-min, LI Ya-fei, JIN Luan, CHI Ben-liang

2022, 31(11):  1-8.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0345

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In order to study the role of the joint logistics support system in combat operations, and to establish a networked research method for system operations, a four-layer complex combat network including the joint logistics network is proposed, and the corresponding networked model is established. First of all, the network definition and description of the joint logistics support system are made, and the state attribute values of each node in the cognitive domain, information domain, physical domain and joint logistics network are obtained. Then, the emergence model between different networks is established, and the concepts of combat chain and logistics support chain are proposed. By defining the emergence satisfaction curve, the network emergence degree value of each node is obtained. At last, the corresponding methods to improve the synchronization capability of the same layer network and different layer network are proposed. The results show that the established network model and the method to improve the synchronization ability are reasonable and effective, which has a certain practical significance for the quantitative research of system of systems operations.

Research on Collaberative Filtering Recommendation Algorithm Optimization in Personalized Recommendation

GUAN Fei, ZHOU Yi, ZHANG Han

2022, 31(11):  9-14.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0346

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Collaborative filtering recommendation algorithm is widely used in personalized recommendation system. However, it has some shortcomings in data sparseness and scalability. This paper proposes a novel approach to solve the problems, which contains two components. The first component is to solve the problem of data sparseness by filling the initial scoring matrix with missing values based on Slope One algorithm and using the collaborative filtering algorithm based on K-means clustering to predict the score of target users. The second one is to solve the scalability problem by proposing an improvedimproveu K-means algorithm based on central aggregation parameters. The results of the relevant comparative experiments on Movielens dataset show that the recommended precision is significantly improved and the data sparseness and scalability issues are effectively improved. Therefore, the research conclusions of this paper can not only further enrich the existing theoretical achievements of collaborative filtering recommendation algorithm, but also provide theoretical basis and decision-making reference for improving the accuracy of the recommendation system.

Multi-mode Reactive Project Scheduling Pptimization Based on the Roadrunner Scheduling Policy

CAO Fang-fang, HE Zheng-wen, WANG Neng-min

2022, 31(11):  15-22.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0347

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This study investigates reactive disruptions and aims at the selection of the proper activity modes and the determination of starting times based on roadrunner policy. An overview on reactive scheduling under uncertainty is discussed at first, and then the mathematical formulation is established. Based on the NP-hardness of the problem, a tabu search algorithm is developed. Ultimately, a practical case is used to illustrate the research. The results show that the reactive cost and makespan of the project based on the roadrunner policy are both lower than those depending on railway policy. During the execution progress, the cost and number of disrupted activities both decrease gradually, and the completion time does not change at certain time instants. For activities with large duration increase, it is effective to reduce cost by arranging themselves or their predecessors ahead of the planned starting times or switching modes to the one with shorter durations. This research provides decision support for the project manager to resolve the disruptions under uncertainty.

Traffic Shunting Signal Control Optimization Model for Road Maintenance and Construction Section

WANG Yan, LIU Jia-hui, CHEN Qun

2022, 31(11):  23-29.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0348

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Aiming at the situation that part of the pavement is often used during road maintenance and construction and the auxiliary road is used for diversion, the traffic shunting signal control optimization model is discussed. Based on the traffic wave theory, this paper analyzes the characteristics and rules of crowded queuing and evacuation of traffic flow in the construction section, the constraints to control the traffic flow, and the delay calculation formula of the traffic flow. Taking the objective of minimizing the total vehicle travel time, the green light time assignment of the original path and the diverging path and the signal cycle as optimization parameters, and considering various constraints of traffic diverging control, the optimization model of traffic diverging signal control for road construction section is established. The model is analyzed as a non-convex problem, so an approximate method to solve the optimal solution is proposed. The model and the solution algorithm are verified by an example, and some results are analyzed.

Cloud Manufacturing Service Composition Optimization Based on Improved NSGA-II Algorithm

SHAO Yi-fan, YU Chun-xia, YU Jia-cheng

2022, 31(11):  30-36.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0349

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The cloud manufacturing task has become more and more complex, and there are more and more criteriarelated to cloud service composition in cloud manufacturing environment. It is necessary to comprehensively consider various relevant criteria and select the optimal service composition from a large number of alternatives. According to the characteristics of cloud manufacturing, this paper formulates the cloud service evaluation criteriasystem from both online and offline aspects.In order to deal with the high-dimensional multi-objective optimization problem better and eliminate the dimensional influence in practice, this paper uses the improved α dominance strategy instead of Pareto dominance to improve the NSGA-II algorithm, and proposes the nα dominance based NSGA-II algorithm. Finally, the feasibility of the proposed algorithm is proved by a motor manufacturing case. Moreover, the solution set obtained by the proposed algorithm is better and smaller by comparing with the standard NSGA-II algorithm, r-NSGA-II algorithm and f-NSGA-II algorithm, which greatly reduces the amount of calculation for subsequent optimal composition selection.

Warehouse Location Problem under Uncertain Oil-well Location in Oilfield

PAN Wen-wen, GUO Hai-xiang, KE Xiao-ling, GU Ming-yun, LIU Xiao

2022, 31(11):  37-43.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0350

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The rational warehouse location not only can save the logistic cost, but also improve the operation efficiency in oilfields. The existing research is usually based on current known oil-well locations, and does not consider the uncertain well locations in the future. But in real oilfield’s operation, well locations would be affected by underground reservoir conditions and strategic plans of the oilfield company, so well locations that might be serviced by the warehouses in the future are not fixed. In addition, the warehouse location problem will have long-term effects on logistics cost and even working in oilfield, and it should keep working, so the warehouse location decision in oilfield should consider the uncertainty of well locations and facility interruption. It is exactly based on these considerations that the stochastic simulation method is used for future well locations according to the current well locations and plans of exploitations. Then we propose the discrete location model with facility interruption and genetic algorithm. Also, we take the warehouse location problem in the south of ordos basin for North China Branch of Sinopec as example, and select 3 warehouses from 8 candidates. Finally, this paper makes a sensitivity analysis based on different well locations and material demand. The warehouse location problem under uncertain well locations is not only valuable in theory research of the logistic management but also of application value for the logistics decision of oil fields.

A Hybrid DABC-GA Algorithm for Dynamic Re-entrant Flexible Flowshop Problem with Unrelated Machines

XUAN Hua, LIU Shu-yan, WANG Xue-yuan, LI Bing

2022, 31(11):  44-51.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0351

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To improve logistics balance of production lines and strengthen time connection between stages, thedynamic reentrant flexible flowshop problem with unrelated parallel machines on each stage is studied, which is an extension of scheduling theory on general reentrant flexible flowshop. The objective is to minimize the total weighted completion time. The job processing time at each stage is dependent on the machine assigned for processing the job. Since the above problem is NP-hard, an integer programming model is firstly formulated. Then, a cellular matrix coding scheme is designed and a hybrid DABC-GA algorithm is developed combining discrete artificial bee colony(DABC)algorithm and genetic algorithm (GA) to obtain near-optimal solutions. The employed bees use Gaussian mutation to search new honey sources; the onlooker bees apply GA for these honey sources to find better neighborhood solutions; the scout bees achieve new honey sources through reverse operation. Finally, to evaluate the hybrid algorithm, the proposed algorithm is compared with several meta-heuristic algorithms for different scale problems. The experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Evolutionary Analysis of the Multiple Reform Paths of Chinese “Government-leading and Social-involvement” Disaster Relief Model

LIU De-hai, ZHAO Yue, HE Ding-chao

2022, 31(11):  52-58.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0352

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China’s disaster relief work should form a model of “Guided by the party committee, led by the government, participated by social forces and market mechanisms extensively”. This paper summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of government-leading and social-leading(“government-social") disaster relief model. On this basis, the evolutionary game model is constructed to analyze the equilibrium conditions and key influencing factors for the formation of the government-social” model. The research shows that the cooperative rescue effect and the sustained stages of disasters relief are the two key factors that determine the evolution of relief model. In the process of institutional evolution from the traditional government-leading model to the ideal “government-social” model, there are several evolutionary paths, such as coordinated game of “double-track system” or periodic solution. Unilaterally relying on the government to promote the reform of the disaster relief system will fall into the long-term coexistence of the old and new systems with the solidified sector interests, thus we need to encourage social forces to participate in the disaster relief to force the reform. With the development from the stage of emergency rescue to transitional resettlement and post-disaster reconstruction, the mode of disaster relief needs to be gradually transformed into that of “government-leading and social-involvement”.

Multi-commodity Vehicle Routing Problem with Split Pickup and Delivery and Fuzzy Demand

GAO Zhen-di, JI Ming-jun, KONG Ling-rui, GUO Xing-hai

2022, 31(11):  59-64.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0353

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To solve the problem of inventory imbalance in the chain enterprises, this paper studies the multi-commodity vehicle routing problem with split pickupand delivery and fuzzy demand (MCVRPSPDFD). The question considers factors such as mixed loading of multiple goods, multiple visits, unmatched supply and demand, non-unique demand, and uncertain demand. This paper constructs the MCVRPSPDFD mathematical model which aims at minimizing operating costs. The model uses credibility measurement theory to deal with uncertain factors in the decision-making environment and solves it through an improved genetic tabu algorithm. To adapt to model requirements and improve computing efficiency, the algorithm designs special initial population, encoding and decoding methods and selects appropriate parameters through parameter testing. The results of the calculation example show that the paper can effectively solve the problem of chain enterprises’ inventory imbalance. The change in the preference value of decision-makers will have an impact on operating costs.

Split Delivery Vehicle Routing Problem with Simultaneous Delivery and Pick-up and Time Windows Preference

FAN Hou-ming, REN Xiao-xue, LIU Hao

2022, 31(11):  65-71.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0354

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Aiming at the split delivery vehicle routing problem with simultaneous delivery and pick-up and time windows preference, a mathematical model is established to minimize the sum of dispatch cost, tally cost, time window penalty cost and fuel consumption cost. A hybrid genetic-variable neighborhood search algorithm is designed to solve it. The concept of temporal-spatial distance is introduced into the algorithm. First, the nearest neighbor insertion method and logistic mapping equation are used to generate the initial population. Then the depth search ability of the variable neighborhood search algorithm is used to optimize the algorithm. An adaptive search strategy is proposed to balance the breadth and depth of population evolution. We design split criteria, and set different split services for each customer. A time difference pass method is designed to determine optimal departure times of vehicles, reducing waiting times of vehicles at customers. Finally, the numerical results show that the model and algorithm are effective.

Single Machine Scheduling with a Maintenance Interval and Two Vehicles DeliveryCoordination

CAI Wei, YANG Mei

2022, 31(11):  72-76.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0355

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This paper investigates a single machine scheduling problem with a maintenance interval and job delivery coordination. The problem can also be viewed as an integrated production and outbound distribution scheduling model. Each job needs to be processed without preemption on the single machine with a maintenance, which demands different amount of storage space during transportation. After processing in the manufacturing center, they need to be delivered to a customer by two homogeneous vehicles with a limited load capacity in batches in the distribution center. The goal is minimize the makespan. We present a 2-approximation algorithm for the case, and also, we show that the performance ratio is tight.

Research on the Mechanism of Precision Poverty Reduction and Cooperation of Local Authorities Based on Repeated Game Theory

ZHANG Na, LI Bo

2022, 31(11):  77-83.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0356

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The work of accurate poverty alleviation is a systematic project with high complexity and wide field. The implementation of its policy must be completed by the local government. The cycle of local government cooperation has a great impact on the accurate poverty alleviation. Based on the basic theory of game theory, this paper studies the mechanism of local government cooperation in poverty alleviation. First of all, according to the accurate poverty in the process of complete information static game, it establishes the game model of the construction between the government’s cooperation and non-cooperation and explores the critical discount factor when two local governments have adopted grim strategy to cooperate with each other. Secondly, in the process of cooperation, the problems between the governments for the accurate poverty cycle length on the effectiveness of poverty alleviation are discussed. The relationship between finite repeated game model of critical discount factor and government cooperation cycle is considered. The results show that in the process of accurate poverty alleviation, the longer cycle of cooperation between local governments, the smaller critical discount factor, the stronger stability between the government and the poor. Finally, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for the local government cooperation cycle and cooperation mechanism.

Research on the Countermeasures of Road Freight Overloading from the Perspective of Stakeholders ——Based on the Evolutionary Game Model and Simulation Analysis

LI Hua-qiang, LI Zu-can

2022, 31(11):  84-90.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0357

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In order to effectively curb the phenomenon of road freight overloading and deepen the reform of “delegating regulation and serving” in the field of traffic law enforcement, this study takes transporters, inspectors and traffic control departments as stakeholders to establish a tripartite evolutionary game model to study the process of overloading transportation. The decision-making evolution process of each stakeholder is analyzed, and the evolution path of the stabilization strategy is simulated and analyzed, and the over-control effects of different policy strengths under different parameter combinations are compared. The study finds that increasing the penalty coefficient of over-limit and overloaded transportation can significantly regulate the behavior of transporters; the lower the management cost, the more likely the regulatory department’s strategy to evolve in the direction of active supervision; there are two possible evolutionary and stable strategies in the tripartite game system. Punishment of inspectors’ passive law enforcement behaviors and increased investment in capital and equipment can improve the probability of the system evolving to an optimal state.

Decision-making Analysis of Channel Mode of E-commerce Platform with Price and Quality Competition

HOU Rui, CHENG Fei-xia, LIN Xiao-gang

2022, 31(11):  91-98.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0358

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Recently, traditional online retailers are accelerating their transformation from retailers to online marketplace connecting consumers and suppliers. Platform and suppliers have formed three kinds of channel structures: reselling mode, hybrid mode and online marketplace mode. We develop a Stackelberg game model to investigate the optimal cooperation model selection between platform and suppliers under dual competition on product quality and price. We show that when the intensity of price competition is moderate and the agency commission ratio is large, the hybrid mode is the platform’s best choice, while the quality difference between two products is the biggest. When the intensity of price competition is small and the agency commission ratio is large, the marketplace mode is the platform’s best choice. In other conditions, the reselling model is the best choice. The conclusions of this paper have importantreference value for the choice of cooperation mode between platform and suppliers, as well as their product quality and pricing decision-making in practice.

Research on Pricing Game of Express Enterprise’s Terminal Service Network Based on Joint Distribution

KONG Ji-li, LI Hong-chao, LIU Xiao-ping

2022, 31(11):  99-105.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0359

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Under the background of terminal joint distribution, pricing game models of decentralized decision and centralized decisionarebuilt,taking the expressjoint distribution allianceas the research object. In the decentralized decision-making scenario, we consider five different profit distribution methods: fixed payment, piece by piece payment, revenue sharing, service level compensation, revenue sharing and cost sharing.In the construction of the model, we consider the impact of the proportion of courier commission, peer competition, service level and publicity level on the demand and cost, and give the best decision of express enterprises and cooperative enterprises.Finally, we analyze the changes of service level, price and profit under different modes. The result shows that the total profit of the alliance is the highest under the centralized decision-making, and the profit sharing and cost sharing mode under the decentralized decision-making is the best.

Combinatorial Decisions Considering the Relationship between Dominance and Diffusion in Project Networks

XING Qing-song, HE Jing, QIAO Wen-chao, DENG Fu-min

2022, 31(11):  106-112.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0360

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If we only focus on the project attributes without considering the impact of the project relevance and the project-derived technology, experience/information diffusion on the project portfolio decisions, it would lead to decision bias, that is, it would underestimate the value of potentially technology-leading projects. To avoid this issue, this paper uses the complex network theory to consider the domination and diffusion relationship between projects as directed weighted network. The K-shell decomposition approach is used to build models in a portfolio network(the project impact model based on dominance relationship or the model of technology, experience/information diffusion among projects, respectively). Then, based on the PageRank, the project priority ranking decision model is established by considering the relationship between project dominance and diffusion. To evaluate the feasibility of the proposed model and algorithm, a numerical study is conducted and provides a reference for enterprises’ project portfolio decision.

Emergency Prevention and Control Decision of COVID-19 Based on FTA

LI Yong-yong, ZHANG Yong-jin, YU Shan-shan

2022, 31(11):  113-120.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0361

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In view of the susceptibility and clustering of COVID-19, this article analyzes the transmission mechanism of COVID-19, as well as tracing and quarantining close contacts of infected persons and other epidemic prevention emergency plans. Based on the fault tree analysis (FTA) method, the risk decision-making problems of epidemic emergencies with different characteristics are studied, including the dynamic evolution process of epidemic emergencies, multiple scenarios and the impact of emergency plans on emergencies. By analyzing the evolution process of the COVID-19 outbreak, a fault tree is constructed to describe the logical relationship between the conditions and factors that lead to the evolution of the emergency, and different feasible emergency solutions are given. The FTA is used to estimate the probability of an epidemic emergency, the overall ranking value of all emergency plans is calculated, and the best feasible emergency plan is given. Finally, a case analysis of a confirmed COVID-19 patient verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

A Multi-phases Information Aggregation Method of Self-mutual Incentive Embodying Development Tendency

LIU Jun, LIANG Yuan-yuan, YI Ping-tao, LI Wei-wei

2022, 31(11):  121-127.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0362

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Aiming at multi-phases information aggregation question in timing ordering dynamic comprehensive evaluation, a self-mutual incentive aggregation method reflecting the development trend is proposed. Firstly, different prediction points are obtained according to different development trends of the evaluated objects, andthe prediction points are connected to get the prediction line, then the self-incentive of the evaluated object is carried out on the state based on the prediction line. Secondly, the difficulty of growth is measured by the size of the original evaluation value and combined with growthrate to carry out mutual incentive on the growth level. Finally, an example is given to verify the effectiveness of the method. The aggregation method considers the development trend and relative growth level of the evaluated objects from the incentive perspective.Accordingly, differentiated incentives are applied to objects with different starting points, fully respecting individual development differences.

Selection and Pricing of Fresh Supply Chain Sales Model Based on Pre-sale

HU Han-li, CAO Yu, WU Kan

2022, 31(11):  128-134.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0363

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The paper studies the sales model selection and pricing strategy of the fresh food supply chain composed of one supplier and one retailer under pre-sale, including two sales models of decentralization and concentration, and two pricing strategies of skimming and penetration. The results show that when online consumers have a low preference for physical channels, both decentralized and centralized models will choose skimming pricing, and otherwise they will choose penetration pricing. Under the skimming pricing strategy, retailers in the centralized model can occupy a larger market by adjusting the prices of the two channels and obtain higher profits than in the decentralized model. In the decentralized model, there will be competition between the two downstream retailers, so in order to gain a competitive advantage, the product under this model will be sold at a low price. Compared with the channel model, it can be seen that when the proportion of online consumers is small, or the proportion of online consumers is large, and their preference for physical retailing is small, the suppliers can obtain higher profits under the decentralized sales model. Otherwise, the centralized sales model is more beneficial to suppliers. However, for retailers, the decentralized sales model is more conducive to physical retailing, while the centralized sales model is more conducive to online retailing.

Choice of BOPS Mode for Dual Channel Supply Chain Considering Joint Decision on Price and Service

LIU Bin, GU Qiong-qiong, SHI Miao-qing

2022, 31(11):  135-141.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0364

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This paper studies the pricing and service joint decision-making analysis of dual-channel model and the BOPS(Buy-online and pick-up-in-store)model in supply chain, while considering the additional consumption. It is found that: 1)In the centralized and decentralized structure, in addition to the unit-compensation strategy, the service level always increases with the additional consumption, the unit-compensation strategy will be affected by the unit compensation amount, and the service level will decrease with the additional consumption. 2)When the service sensitivity is greater, the price increases with the additional consumption, and under the centralized structure, the retail price and service level in the BOPS mode are higher than in the benchmark mode. Under the decentralized structure, the full-sales-transfer strategy is counted as the highest offline service level, and the unit-compensation strategy is next, the benchmark model is the lowest, and the retail price is the highest in the unit-compensation strategy. 3)When the consumer service sensitivity is high, the BOPS model should be adopted, and the full-sales-transfer strategy should be chosen in the decentralized structure; when the consumer service sensitivity is low, BOPS sale is not suitable for the enterprise.

Research on Supply Chain Operational Strategy of After-sales Service for Remanufactured Products in Competitive Market

XIE Bo, WANG Xian-jia

2022, 31(11):  142-148.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0365

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In the supply chain system under the competitive relationship between the original manufacturing enterprise(enterprise; 1)that produces new products and remanufactured products at the same time and the enterprise (enterprise 2)that produces substitute products, we discuss the supply chain under different after-sales service strategiesand analyze the impact of supply chain pricing strategies and after-sales service of remanufactured products on pricing strategies and the profits of companies in the supply chain in a competitive market. This reveals the impact of after-sales service of remanufactured products on pricing strategy and the most optimal profit of each company in the supply chain. The main research conclusions are as follows: (1)When a manufacturing company provides after-sales service for remanufactured products, the sales volume of remanufactured products increases, and sales volume of new products and competitive substitute products will decrease; what is interesting is that the market retail prices of new products and remanufactured products increase at the same time, and competitive substitution for the market retail price of the product is reduced. (2)When after-sales service for remanufactured products is provided,the profit of the manufacturing enterprise is always greater than the profit without after-sales service, and it is not affected by the unit production cost. At the same time, when the unit production cost is relatively high, the after-sales service strategy provided by manufacturing companies for remanufactured products will increase the profits of the competitors. These conclusions have a certain guiding role and management enlightenment for how to provide after-sales service of remanufactured products in the supply chain of remanufactured products.

Constant Critical Level Policy for Two-class Inventory Systems under Service Level Constraints

ZHANG Yong, ZHANG Sheng-hao, NAN Xi

2022, 31(11):  149-154.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0366

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We consider a periodic review, infinite horizon, backlogging inventory system with two demand classes, where the high priority class has a higher target service level than the low priority one. The system applies a base-stock policy and a constant critical level policy, under which high priority demands are fulfilled firstly while low priority ones are satisfied only if on-hand inventory is more than a constant critical level. The objective is to minimize the expected ending on-hand inventory subject to two service level constraints. To improve computation efficiency, we propose a “Reservation Assumption”, under which the ending on-hand inventory is no less than the sum of high priority backorder level and the constant critical level by increasing low priority backorder level. We derive closed-form expressions for the approximate system performance, prove various monotone properties with respect to control parameters, characterize the zones of feasible solutions, and develop a solution procedure of the service level constraint problem. The numerical experiments show that our solution procedure performs well in both solution accuracy and computation efficiency.

Application Research

Abatement R&D Subsidy in a Mixed Market

LI Dong-dong, LV Hong-jun, JIN Shuai, YANG Jing-yu, LI Chong-mao

2022, 31(11):  155-160.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0367

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This paper investigates abatement R&D subsidy in a mixed duopoly with spillovers. The results show that as spillovers rate increases, the level of abatement R&D and pollution will decline. When the efficiency of emission abatement R&D is low, as the technology spillovers rate increases, the optimal subsidy will increase; when the efficiency of emission abatement R&D is high, as the technology spillovers rate increases, the optimal subsidy will decline. Subsidy policy cannot solve the inefficiency problem caused by the difference in output in the mixed market, but has better emission reduction and profit effects. Privatisation leads to an increase in profits and social welfare levels and a reduction in emissions and output.

Research on Supply Chain Incentive Contracts Based on Process Innovation

ZHANG Pan, JIANG Shao-bo

2022, 31(11):  161-166.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0368

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For a competitive supply chain consisting of two manufacturers and one retailer, a Stackelberg game model with the retailer as a leader is established. The impact of process innovation efficiency and competitive intensity on process innovation level and supply chain members’ profit under revenue sharing contract and cost sharing contract are analyzed. It shows that the increase of process innovation efficiency will reduce the manufacturer’s process innovation level and supply chain members’ profit, and the increase of competitive intensity will increase the manufacturers’ process innovation level and supply chain members’ profit. In addition, it is advantageous for the retailer to provide revenue-sharing contracts when competitive intensity and process innovation efficiency are low, and it is advantageous for the retailer to provide cost-sharing contracts when competitive intensity and process innovation efficiency are high.

Research on Data Poorness in Online Deceptive Review Identification

ZHANG Wen, WANG Qiang, TANG Zi-xu, QIN Guang-jie, LI Jian

2022, 31(11):  167-173.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0369

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The development of machine learning related technology has improved the accuracy of onlinedeceptiveyeview identification. However, the current machine learning model lacks enough labeled data to carry out model training. This paper proposes a review dataset expansion method called GAN-RDE based on Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN), which aims to solve the problem of insufficient model training data in deceptive review identification. Specifically, we divide the initial review data into a real review dataset and a deceptive review dataset, and the GAN is trained through the truthful review dataset and the deceptive review dataset respectively, to generate a vector that conforms to the feature distribution of the truthful review and the deceptive review. Secondly, we combine the vector of the review feature distribution with the feature word vector matrix of the initial review dataset to expand the model training data. Finally, the Nai ve Bayes, the multi-layer perceptron, and support vector machine are used as basic classifiers to compare the effects of deceptive review recognition before and after data expansion. The experimental results show that the classifier with the GAN-RDE method can produce better performances than the classifier with the unexpanded dataset in deceptive review identification.

Research on Manufacturer’s Cash Flow Hedging Decision under Dual Channels

DONG Yu, XUE Xi-lei

2022, 31(11):  174-178.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0370

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Due to changes in exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices, together with the complexity of the dual-channel supply chain relationships, a company’s cash flow often features significant volatility. This paper studies the manufacturer's decision to hedge cash flow under the dual-channel sales model. The author focuses on a scenario where a monopoly operates a dual-channel sales model consisting of a distributor and online sales and uses cash flow to increase production efficiency via internal financing. In this scenario,the author studies how this company makes hedging decision considering cash flow fluctuations, market demand, sensitivity for alternative products, and wholesale. The equilibrium problem of manufacturers under the dual-channel sales model is one major part of this paper. Besides, the author compares the equilibrium solutions under the two kinds of decisions and finally gives an intuitive conclusion through numerical analysis: If the maximum market demand and the sensitivity for alternative products increase, companies prefer to choose hedging; However, if the cash flow fluctuations and wholesale prices increase, hedging is out of the companies’ consideration.

Will the Securities Analysts Downgrade the Recommended Rating of Lottery-like Stock? Empirical Evidence from Chinese A-share Stock Market?

JIA Li-na, LI Hui-ying, CHEN Ling-zhi, LIN Xiao-wen

2022, 31(11):  179-185.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0371

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The lottery-like stocks have the characteristics of high risk and high speculation. This paper tests whether the securities analysts would downgrade the recommended rating of lottery-likestocks. On the basis of this, the paper discusses the investors’ reaction to recommendation rating of the analysts for lottery-like stockandthe stock return after the event. The results show that,firstly the analysts are more likely to downgrade lottery-like stocks , while less likely to do so when the investors’ sentiment is high; As a lot of investors do overreact to the analysts’ lottery-like stock recommendation, the excess return could reduce.The conclusions of this paper have a great important reference value for better understanding the role of them in the capital market.

Is There a Regional Credit Risk Contagion Caused by Bond Default?——Empirical Evidence from Credit Spread of Bonds Issuing

YANG Xi-ya, SHI Bao-feng

2022, 31(11):  186-193.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0372

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Since 2018, the number of bond default has risen rapidly. The cumulative amount of bond default has already exceeded 290 billion. As Chinese bond market is increasingly exposed to credit risk, understanding risk of default is urgent. This paper uses eight districts as examples to investigate the regional credit risk contagion effect caused by bond default from issuing pricing perspective. Based on a dataset of bond defaults and bonds issued in 2016~2019, the authors construct a factor affecting model and get following conclusions. The credit risk caused by bond default is regionally contagious, which is confirmed by the fact that if there is a credit event in the same district before the enterprise issues a bond, the financing cost of that corporate bond will be significantly increased. But this contagion effect will be reduced, even lost, with increasing time distance between the bond issuance and the default. Besides that, the credit risk contagion effect is different among different nature enterprises. Private enterprises are particularly affected by the credit risk contagion.

Research on Stock Price Prediction of China and America Based on EEMD-Elman-Adaboost

YANG Jing-ling, TANG Guo-qiang, ZHANG Jian-wen

2022, 31(11):  194-199.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0373

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Aiming at the complex features such as highly non-normal, non-linear, non-stationary characteristics of stock price series, this paper introduces ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD) and Adaboost algorithm based on Elman neural network to predict the daily closing price of Chinese and American stocks. Firstly, the EEMD algorithm is used to decompose the sample data into several intrinsic mode function(IMF) components and a residual component. Secondly, the Elman neural network is optimized with the Adaboost algorithm to make rolling predictions for each component. Finally, the sum of the prediction results of each component is used as the final prediction result. The results show that the root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, and mean absolute error of EEMD-Elman-Adaboost model for predicting the stock prices of China and America are smaller than those of existing BP, Elman, EMD-Elman and EEMD-Elman models. The new combination model integrates the advantages of EEMD, Elman neural network and Adaboost algorithm, so that it has stronger generalization ability and following ability.

Nonlinear Characteristics Analysisand Trend Identification of Liquidity in Chinese Stock Index Futures Markets

YAN Ru-zhen, YUE Ding, WU Xu, GAO Wei

2022, 31(11):  200-205.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0374

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This paper uses the multifractal detrend fluctuation method to study the non-linear characteristics of the liquidity in Chinese stock index futures markets, and compares the multifractal degree of liquidity among the different futures contracts. We also identify the trended fluctuations by tendency entropy dimension and analyze the validity for the correct rate of identification by stochastic correct rate. The results show that the nonlinear characteristics of liquidity is obvious in Chinese stock index futures markets, and this nonlinearity is largely manifested as multifractal characteristics. The liquidity of other stock index futures contracts is less multifractalthan the short-term contracts. The sources of multifractality are due to both the related multifractality and distributed multifractality. The trended fluctuations of liquidity can be efficiently identified by the tendency entropy dimension method.

Management Science

Comparative Study on the Vehicle and Cargo Matching Modes of Intra City Freight Based on Crowdsourcing Platform

YU Hai-yan, LU Nan, LI Xiao-fu

2022, 31(11):  206-212.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0375

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In order to solve the problems of long waiting time and low customer satisfaction caused by the order grabbing mode adopted in the current intra city freight vehicle and cargo matching platform, we propose an order dispatching mode for the vehicle and cargo matching. First, we build a dynamic vehicle cargo matching model which objective is to minimize the average waiting time of customers. Then, according to the actual situation of the order grabbing mode, a nearest random matching algorithm is designed, while a rolling time horizon perfect matching algorithm is designed for the order dispatching mode. The effectiveness and applicability of these two algorithms are analyzed by simulation study. Itis found that the order dispatching mode is more efficient than order grabbing mode when the order saturation level is high, and the shorter the rolling time horizon the shorten the customer average waiting time. The research results are significant for the order allocation of intra-city freight vehicle and cargo matching platform and helpful for improving customer satisfaction.

Manufacturers’ Advertising Incentive Strategies in the Gray Market

WANG Xiu-mei, LI Jun

2022, 31(11):  213-218.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0376

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Based on the background of gray market,this paper investigates a two-stage supply chain structure composed of amanufacturer and two retailers. According to difference of valuation of product, the two markets are divided into high-end market and low-end market. Due to price difference, the retailer in the low-end market diverts product that isunauthorized by the manufacturer to the high-end market for arbitrage. We examinethe influence of the gray market and the manufacturer’s advertising incentive strategy on the supply chain. We find that if consumers in the low-end market have low valuation of product, manufacturers will obtain higher profitby the presence of gray markets; if consumers in the low-end market have high valuation of product, the profit of manufacturersis hurt by the presence of gray market. Interestingly, we also find that the advertising incentive strategy of manufacturers increases the profit of manufacturers and retailers in the low-end marketand does not always decrease the retailer in the high-end marketprofit. In addition, the profit of gray market will be decreased because of the advertising incentive strategy of manufacturers.

The Effect of Chongqing-Euro Railway Express on the Development of International Logistics Center in Chongqing

CHEN Kang, SU Zhan-hao, YANG Zhong-zhen

2022, 31(11):  219-225.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0377

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In order to study the effect of the Chongqing-Euro Railway Express (CERE) on Chongqing’s location advantage, firstly an analysis framework for the impact of the opening of China-Europe Railway Express on regional economic development is proposed. Then, based on the relationship between production and consumption, stochastic frontier analysis and multi-factor dynamic generation method, the changes in Chongqing’s logistics volume exported to Europe and the impact of the opening of the CERE on foreign trade activities are studied. The authors measure the role and effect of the CERE on the formation of Chongqing International Logistics Center, and develop the sensitivity of related parameters test. The results show that the analysis framework proposed in this paper can describe the impact of the China-Europe Express System on the regional economy reasonably, and it proves that the CERE has improved the transportation accessibility of Chongqing. It has greatly increased the logistics volume of high value-added products exported to Europe, and significantly promoted the formation of Chongqing International Logistics Center.

Optimal E-commerce Platform Entering Strategies of Firms Selling Fresh Agricultural Products Considering network externality

CAO Kai-ying, XU Yu-qiu, DOU Guo-wei

2022, 31(11):  226-233.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0378

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In recent years, some e-commerce platforms such as Taobao.com, JD.com and Amazon.com are rapidly developing, and consumers can obtain additional network externality from shopping online due to visual online sales, which prompts consumers to gradually shift from offline to online. In this context, if firms selling fresh agricultural products decide whether to enter e-commerce platforms, they need to consider not only increased demand from online sales but also the channel competition brought by operating online channel. Moreover, given that fresh agricultural products are perishable and online arrival time is relatively long, consumers may obtain a relatively low-quality fresh agricultural products from online shopping, which may reduce consumers’ willingness to buy and product evaluation. Therefore, firms selling fresh agricultural products need to carefully decide whether to enter e-commerce platforms as third-party sellers. To address channel selection problems faced by these firms, this paper considers a firm selling a fresh agricultural product offline and an e-commerce platform dominating the e-commerce market. According to the firm’s choice of whether entering the platform, weanalyze two cases, i.e. not entering the platform (NP) and entering the platform (EP). We develop several theoretical models to investigate optimal fresh agricultural product pricing and channel selection strategies. Some main insights are presented as follows. The results show that the firm should enter the platform if the annual service fee is relatively low; otherwise, the firm should not enter the platform. Moreover, as consumers’ sensitivity to network externality increases, the firm is more likely to enter the platform. In the extension, we consider a decentralized supply chain with a supplier and a retailer, and find that the retailer is more reluctant to enter the platform. In addition, this paper designs a revenue sharing contract to coordinate the supply chain, and finds that the retailer in the context of coordinated supply chain is more likely to enter the platform.

Research on the Benefit Distribution Mechanism of Academic Journals and Database Platforms under the Background of Media Convergence

WENG Xiao-feng, HAO Zhen-sheng

2022, 31(11):  234-239.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0379

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A scientific and reasonable benefit distribution mechanism is essential to the development of enterprises.In order to optimize the profit distribution mechanism between enterprises, the paper takes academic journals and database platforms as examples, based on cost-utility theory, and uses institutional engineering methods to study the benifits distribution mechanism between academic journals and database platforms. The studies shows that the efficiency of the benefit distribution mechanism under sales integration is low. The implementation of capital integration and the reasonable distribution of benefits according to the size of the contribution can increase not only the revenue of journals and database platform, but also the overall efficiency of the industry, thereby achieving Pareto improvement, which provides decision-making reference for designing reasonable and sustainable benefit distribution mechanism among enterprises in industrial chain.