Table of Content

25 March 2022, Volume 31 Issue 3

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Study on Working Time Optimization and Influencing Factors Based on Equivalent Labor Cost Perspective

MA Wei-min, SHAO Wei, JI Xiao-dong

2022, 31(3):  1-8.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0070

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Based on the private natural labor rate reproduction and finite labor inventory of workers, this paper deals with the working time problem using economic optimization methods. The negative influence on productivity, which is caused by the inevitable accumulation of fatigue, and the essential breaks for the reproduction of worker's private labor stock, is converted into equivalent labor cost. An equalization optimization model is provided to deal with the problem with a certain time domain. And for the number of periods tends to be infinite under the uncertain time domain scenario that causes a failure of the former model, an extended model is provided to study the optimal working time to achieve the goal of minimizing a convergence limit of the labor cost. Numerical examples based on the above models are given to analyze the impact of parameters on the perform sensitivity of the models. The results show that the labor intensity coefficient and fatigue cost are negative to the optimal working time, and the sensitivities of these two coefficients are equally the highest; the rest cost is positively related to the optimal working time; the impact of the necessary rest time on the work cycle decision depends on the proportion of each cost coefficient, and the sensitivity is the weakest. This study enriches the domain of labor research, and the results can be used to guide the improvement of the practical working system, which are of great significance to addressing the problems of widespread overwork in industrial workers.

Research of Berth Scheduling Optimization Model and Algorithm on Automotive RO-RO Terminals

ZHANG Di, MEI Zi-qiao, CHEN Feng, ZHAO Yi-fei

2022, 31(3):  9-16.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0071

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This paper studies anunprece dented joint scheduling problem of mixed berth allocation and manpower assignment in RO-RO terminals. Firstly, a mixed integer programming model is established with the objective of minimizing the total servicing time of vessels, which considers tidal time window constraints, handling manpower constraints, berth bollards distribution constraints, and irregular berth layout factors. Then, a combinational algorithm is proposed by adopting an interactive strategy, which contains a multi-group parallel evolutionary genetic algorithm that generates plan sequences and a rule-based heuristic algorithm that obtains individual fitness values for given sequences. Furthermore, based on the real operation data, several sets of numerical experiments are generated and the results show that the genetic algorithm can solve an example which contains 50 vessels and 100 berth sections within 10 minutes. Finally, real RO-RO terminal operation cases are carried out to verify the applicability and efficiency of the proposed model and algorithm in the actual scheduling problem.

Optimization of Patient Reservation Queuing Policy Based on LSTM-GA Hybrid Model

WEI Ruo-nan, JIANG Ju, XU Hai-yan

2022, 31(3):  17-23.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0072

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In the field of medical operation and management, a reasonable allocation of resources is conducive to more patients to seek medical treatment as soon as possible and reduce the risk of patients' disease deterioration and death. Reservation queuing policy is designed to allocate the order of patients' occupying resources. A hybrid model based on long Short Term Memory(LSTM)neural network and genetic algorithm(GA)is established to optimize the queuing policy. First, big data and deep learning are used to analyze patient arrival and hospital service, and LSTM neural network is established to learn data features and predict future data. Compared with the random distribution method commonly used in queuing theory, it has achieved better results. Secondly, a queuing policy optimization algorithm based on queuing system simulation is designed to obtain the optimal queuing policy by using improved GA. The empirical studies show that the method of text can significantly reduce the patient's waiting time, which lowers the target function by 59%. Finally, the sensitivity of the queuing policy is analyzed, and the results show that the queuing policy is effective in each period of the simulation.

Integrated Optimization of Location-Inventory-Delivery Problem Using Hybrid Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithm

ZENG Yu-rong, WANG Lin, WANG Si-rui

2022, 31(3):  24-30.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0073

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An integrated location-inventory-delivery optimization model using joint replenishment policy is proposed for practical operations management. However, the traditional solutions cannot solve this typical NP-hard problem efficiently and effectively. Therefore, a new hybrid fruit fly optimization algorithm is designed to deal with it. Firstly, the new algorithm introduces the information exchange, mutation and selection of evolutionary algorithm to enhance the local search ability. Secondly, a probability osphresis operation is adopted to balance the global search and local search. Numerical experiments results reveal the accuracy and robust of new algorithm improved observably. Compared to differential evolution, adaptive hybrid differential evolution and particle swarm optimization, it still has the comparative advantage.

Expert Weighting Method Based on Prior Information and One-dimensional Data Clustering

YI Ping-tao, WANG Shi-ye, LI Wei-wei, WANG Lu, DONG Qian-kun

2022, 31(3):  31-37.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0074

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In the research of multi-attribute group evaluation method, expert empowerment is an important research content. Combining the prior information and the posterior information of experts, this paper presents a method to determine the weight of experts. First of all, the order value correlation coefficient in the expert history evaluation activity is used to make the predicted value of this evaluation activity, and then the prior weight of experts is determined. Secondly, based on the perspective of group consensus, one-dimensional data clustering is carried out for the indicator information given by each expert, and the expert posterior weight is calculated in combination with the probability of occurrence under different grouping conditions. Finally, the two types of weights are combined to determine the final weight, and an example is given to verify the validity and rationality of the method.

Research on Order Combination and Cargoes Allocation from the Perspective of Alliance

YAN Fang, ZHANG Feng

2022, 31(3):  38-43.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0075

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With the rapid development of small and medium-sized enterprises, how to effectively utilize their logistics resources to reduce their logistics costs has become an urgent problem. Based on the transport alliance'sperspective, this paper establishes a vehicle and cargo scheduling model, whose objective is minimizing the total cost under the consideration of the time window and shipment request volumes. Then, three time window processing strategies are proposed, and a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is designed to solve the proposed model.The effectiveness of the model and algorithm is analyzed by using the numerical examples. The results show that the proposedmodel can reduce the total logistics cost and reduce the number of vehicles. Therefore, this study has a certain theoretical significance on integrating the social logistics resource and reducing the social logistics costs.

Research on Network Positive Energy Recommendation Algorithm Based on Hesitant Fuzzy Similarity

ZANG Zhen-chun, LI Jie-lu, WANG Mei-qi, WANG Na-na

2022, 31(3):  44-49.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0076

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According to the fuzziness of positive energy and the characteristics of multiple rules, this paper establishes the evaluation set of positive energy events with the help of linguistic hesitant fuzzy set and ordinary hesitant fuzzy set, and determines the fuzzy entropy and weight of each attribute according to the effect of event attributes on positive energy, then establishes the hesitant fuzzy recommendation model. Drawing on the idea of TOPSIS, the standard value of positive energy event is obtained from big data, and the recommendation threshold is determined by calculating the fuzzy similarity between the event and the standard value to obtain satisfactory positive energy event recommendation results.

Pythagorean Hesitant Fuzzy Risky Multi-attribute Decision Making Method Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory and VIKOR

Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory and VIKOR CHANG Juan, DU Ying-xue, LIU Wei-feng

2022, 31(3):  50-56.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0077

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In view of the risky multi-attribute decision problem in which the attribute weights are unknown and the attribute values are in the form of Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy numbers, considering the bounded rational behavior of decision maker, the decision making method is proposed based on the cumulative prospect theory and the VIKOR method. Firstly, the dispersion rate of PHFN is defined and an optimization model is constructed to determine the attribute weights. Secondly, the cumulative prospect theory is incorporated into the PHFN environment, the value function of PHFN is defined, and the comprehensive prospect value of each alternative under each attribute is calculated by combining the decision weight function. Furthermore, the comprehensive prospect value matrix is constructed and VIKOR method is used to rank the alternatives. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are illustrated by an application example of venture capital project selection.

Modeling and Rationality Analysis on the Satisficing Heuristic Decision under Limited Attention

WU Xin-lin, XIAO Hai-yan

2022, 31(3):  57-62.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0078

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A decision maker under limited attention in the real world behaves according to the so-called satisfying heuristic proposed by Herbert Simon. We propose a descriptive model of satisfying heuristic in which the decision maker's preferences are incomplete by utilizing the concepts of menu sequences and consideration sets and so on. The existence and rationality of satisfying decisions under observable menu sequences and partially observable menu sequences are discussed respectively combined with some rationality conditions. Further, some simulation experiments about an application case of consumer shopping are conducted to illustrate our model. The simulation results show that in the case of time constraint and incomplete information, the consumer can ensure that the satisfactory alternative can be selected with the maximum probability by excluding parts of the alternatives. The results can provide the decision maker with theoretical reference values in case of time pressure, limited information, etc. It can also be the theoretical foundation for the study on the satisfying decision.

Game Analysis of the Evolution of Environmental Regulation with the Participation of Four Parties

PAN Feng, LIU Yue, WANG Lin

2022, 31(3):  63-71.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0079

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The problem of environmental pollution has seriously hindered the economic and social development of our country. The current environmental governance in our country has gradually formed a multi-agent governance model. In this paper, the four main related subjects of environmental governance “central government-local government-enterprise-public” are put into a unified framework, and a four party evolutionary game model is established. Numerical simulation is used to simulate the influence of parameter changes on the stability strategies of different subjects in the game system, and the following conclusions are drawn: (1)among the 16 pure strategy equilibrium points of the four party evolutionary game system, there are eight conditions of stability. The other eight equilibrium points are unstable under any conditions. Among them, eight conditional stability points represent the possible strategic equilibrium of the stakeholders in environmental governance in China. The relative net income of a strategy in a strategy set determines the strategy choice of its related subjects. (2)Through the numerical simulation analysis, it is found that increasing the central government's punishment for the local government's negative execution, increasing the central government's transfer payment and increasing the central government's additional punishment for the local government's negative execution can not only improve the environmental protection law enforcement of local government, but also improve the enthusiasm of enterprises in emission reduction. The improvement of environmental regulation standards and the increase of penalties for illegal discharge of pollutants by enterprises will have an impact on the strategic choices of local governments, enterprises and the public, which can make the system evolve to the ideal stable state of “the central government does not strictly supervise, the local government actively implements, the enterprises discharge pollutants legally, and the public does not report”, but the effect of improving environmental regulation standards will be slightly better than increasing the punishment to enterprises. The local government's increase of enterprise's pollution control subsidy can help to realize the sustainable development of economy in a short time, but the excessive enterprise's pollution control subsidy will not help the game system to reach the ideal stable state, which is a non long-term environmental governance model. Improving the reward of public report can promote the enterprises to discharge pollutants legally and accelerate the realization of the ideal stable state of the game system to a certain extent. Finally, from the perspective of the central government, local government and the public, the paper puts forward some suggestions on environmental governance.

Research on the Relationship between Doctors and Patients Based on the Active-passive Cooperation Game

LIU Ju-sheng, HAN Jing-ti, YU Jia-li

2022, 31(3):  72-78.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0080

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For the past few years, the relationship between physicians and patients has become increasingly tense and prominent. To solve this problem, based on the analysis of typical physician-patient incidents in China during the past five years, we take the degree of trust, the degree of information asymmetry, and the cost of diagnosis and treatment into account firstly. Then, we use evolutionary game theory and replicating dynamic equations to construct the evolution model. Finally, this paper explores the evolution path of physician-patient relationship and its influencing factors. The results shows that in the long run, there are two evolutionary paths in the physician-patient relationship game system: positive cooperation and passive cooperation. Increasing the degree of trust between physicians and patients, reducing the degree of information asymmetry between physicians and patients, reducing the cost of cooperation between physicians and patients, and increasing the reward and punishment of government-led arbitration institutions for both physicians and patients will lead to a shift from passive cooperation to active one.

Research on the “Double Commercial Realization” Concerns and Regulations of Short Video Charity Subjects

GUO Yan-lu, LUO Gong-li, HOU Gui-sheng

2022, 31(3):  79-85.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0081

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A three-party evolutionary game model including self-media platforms, charitable executors and netizen users is used to study the charitable behavior supervision from the perspective of self-media, and further study the situation of limited total number of charitable executors of the evolution. The study finds that when the initial proportion of following netizens participating in charity is relatively small, the system can quickly reach equilibrium although the probability of netizens providing financial support is small. When a large number of netizens participate in the development of charities, netizens can be called upon to support the charity career by money within their ability; the greater the netizen 's emotional harm caused by the dishonesty of the charity subject, the longer the system will evolve toward the ideal state. Considering the main subjectives of charitable action alone in the context of a limited total number , this study finds that honest charitable subject “invades” the subject of the hype needs to meet one-third cost threshold conditions.

Game Analysis on Knowledge Collaboration Behavior of Smart Home Creative Space

RUI Hai-yan, GAO Chang-chun, ZHANG Rui, TANG Bing-yong

2022, 31(3):  86-92.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0082

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In order to clarify the essence of knowledge collaborative behavior of smart home creative space system, under the analysis of the composition of its knowledge collaboration network, this paper constructs a general game model of knowledge collaboration behavior by considering the infinite repeated game of collaboration behavior between different agents, and establishes symmetric and asymmetric cooperative game models respectively by using the evolutionary game theory to further analyze the evolution process of knowledge collaboration behavior in the system. The results show that the ability of operating knowledge resources and incentive intensity of smart home creative space system, the additional benefits and the times of cooperation are the key factors influencing the cooperative agent to take knowledge collaboration behavior;the pure profit brought by collaboration and the initial cost paid by the cooperative agent to support the collaborative operation are the important parameters affecting the evolution of knowledge collaboration behavior.

A Three-strategy Prisoner's Dilemma Game Model Considering Emotions and Its Cooperative Evolution

XIE Neng-gang, DAI Ya-yun, WANG Meng, WANG Lu, BAO Wei

2022, 31(3):  93-99.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0083

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Based on the six emotions of sympathy, bullying, indifference, respect, jealousy and fear between the strong and the weak in the context of social comparison, a quantitative expression method of individual emotional characteristics is established. Considering the three-strategy prisoner's dilemma game model driven by emotion, the corresponding relationship and quantitative expression mechanism between the six emotions and the three game strategies of cooperation, betrayal and loneliness are designed. The evolutionary game simulation analysis is carried out by using three network models: two-dimensional lattice network, random network and scale-free network. The results show that when the temptation of successful betrayal is large, it promotes the development, evolution, prosperity and stability of the emotion types adopting betrayal strategy, and the final evolution state of the system reflects the characteristics of negative emotion to varying degrees; Spatial network structure has an important influence on the evolution of emotion types and cooperative behavior. Scale-free network structure can lead to the stable evolution of emotion types with certain benign characteristics and bring a high level of cooperation; From the perspective of social comparison and the resulting comparison effect and assimilation effect, the different emotional evolution states under the three networks is explained.

A Reliability-oriented Improved Uncertainty Importance Measure

DUI Hong-yan, LI Yue, BAI Guang-han

2022, 31(3):  100-104.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0084

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Importance measure has been widely explored and applied in reliability and safety engineering, which is effective method to identify and evaluate the vulnerable spot of one system. The uncertainty importance measure as a primary tool has played an important role. Therefore, there is a new method to show the reliability of multi-state system efficiently based on the uncertainty importance measure. The model in the present work simulates and describes the relative impact of input changes on output uncertainty, which depends on the changes of input distributions ranges, and the uncertainty importance measure is expressed by the definite integral area between two cumulative distribution functions. At last, a fault tree analysis is used to study the proposed uncertainty importance measure. From the result, the metric distance is an effective means to describe the uncertainty importance measure of relative impact of input distributions on the change of output distributions.

Reliability Modeling and Analysis of Multi-Stage Bivariate Degradation Process Systems

QIN Hong-zhi, SUN Ming-juan, WANG Wei-wei, DONG Qin-lai

2022, 31(3):  105-111.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0085

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In the paper, a multi-stage degradation system is considered, in which the Copula function is introduced to describe the correlation between two performance characteristics and Wiener processes are adopted to describe the degradation process of each performance characteristic in each stage. Explicit expression of the system reliability is given, and a numerical simulation algorithm based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed, which verifies the correctness of the analytical results. Finally, some numerical examples are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Application Research

Can Agricultural Supply Chain Finance Alleviate the Financing Constraints of Agricultural Enterprises? ——Evidence from the Enterprises' Participation in Targeted Poverty Alleviation

GUO Jie, GU Li-yue

2022, 31(3):  112-118.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0086

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Agricultural supply chain finance provides a new way to solve the financing problem of agricultural enterprises. The paper tests the hypothesis by analyzing the relevant financial data of listed agricultural enterprises from 2016 to 2018. The results show that: First, China's agricultural enterprises generally face the problem of financing constraints. Secondly agricultural supply chain finance significantly alleviates the financing constraints of agricultural enterprises. Furthermore, the regulatory effect of enterprise targeted poverty alleviation on the financing constraints of agricultural supply chain finance is more significant. The paper reveals the importance and necessity of agricultural supply chain finance to alleviate the financing constraints of agricultural enterprises, extends the research field of supply chain finance to agriculture industry,and provides some advice to the participation of agricultural enterprises in targeted poverty alleviation to push rural revitalization.

Study on Cross-region Fresh Fruit E-commerce Distribution Model with Fuzzy Time and Maturity

GAO Xin-hui, HU Xiang-pei, RUAN Jun-hu, FENG Xiao-chun, HAN Ji-liang

2022, 31(3):  119-126.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0087

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Based on the uncertainty of the delivery time in the actual distribution process, the fuzzy network flow model of cross-region fresh fruit e-commerce distribution is constructed through the fuzzy processing of delivery time. Then we establish the customer satisfaction function according to the deviation between the actual delivery time and the expected delivery time.The penalty cost function caused by the decrease in satisfaction is further constructed, and a minimum cost route optimization model for cross-regional fresh fruit e-commerce distribution with fuzzy time and maturity is built in the light of the change characteristics of fresh fruit maturity.In the process of solving, three fuzzy number defuzzification methods (centroid method, integral method and α-cut method) are utilized to deblur the fuzzy delivery time of the model, and combined with the existing integer programming algorithm to solve the optimization model. Finally, the optimal distribution route under different methods is obtained. Through comparison and analysis of the results obtained, it is found that: (1)Choosing an appropriate distribution route based on the maturity level of fresh fruit can effectively reduce the cost of fresh fruit delivery, maximize the quality of fresh fruit when it reaches the customer's hand, and maintains the customer satisfaction level at a high level; (2)From the point of view of defuzzification, the results obtained by the α-cut method are more general and reliable than the centroid method and the integral method.

Tactics for Casualties' Evacuation in Battlefield Rescue

SHAO Hui, HUANG Zhao-hui

2022, 31(3):  127-131.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0088

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According to cases and reports about battlefield casualty estimating, simulation model in generating casualties is built, based on which, the tactics for the rescue and evacuation of the even and the camp are analyzed. The model is verified by hypothetical data and provided, and the project of battlefield rescue is analyzed. The model of casualties'evacuation in battlefield rescue is proved reliable. It will support the development of firewire rescue toward computerization automation and intellectualization. This research provides theoretical method reference for casualties' evacuation in battlefield rescue in collection and vehicle allocation.

Comprehensive Performance Evaluation Model Based on Improved Evidence Theory and Its Application

SHEN Yan-an, ZHANG Jun-biao

2022, 31(3):  132-137.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0089

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In view of the various factors of complex management system, the coexistence of subjective and objective information and the difficulty of quantitative evaluation, a comprehensive performance evaluation model based on improved evidence theory is proposed. Firstly, the cloud model and two-tuple linguistic is proposed to transform evaluation information into basic probability assignment. Then, the Tanimoto measure is introduced, and a formula for measuring evidence similarity is designed to determine the conflict degree between two pieces of evidence. After that, the original evidence is revised and weighted based on this credibility. Finally, the fusion is accomplished by adopting the improved evidence combination formula. Numerical example illustrates that the comprehensive evaluation model is more effective and practical in dealing with the multi-attribute and multi-level complex system evaluation problem.

Improved ARIMAX Method for Cargo Throughput Forecasting ——A Case Study of Tianjin Port

WANG Xiang-qian, WU Dong-long, ZHENG Jian-tong

2022, 31(3):  138-144.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0090

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Accurate prediction of port cargo throughput is of great significance to the development planning of ports. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of port cargo throughput, a combined prediction model based on ARIMAX-SVR is established. Taking Tianjin Port as an example, the data of cargo throughput from 1999 to 2018 are selected as the research object. BP neural network is first used to supplement the missing data, and then the main factors affecting cargo throughput are selected through the Pearson correlation analysis. Then, based on the ARIMA model, a multivariate time series prediction model is established. In order to further improve the accuracy of the model, the multivariate time series prediction model modified by the support vector regression model is finally introduced. Through empirical analysis, the ARIMAX-SVR combination model can be obtained with higher accuracy and better prediction effect than the ARIMA model, which is more suitable for port throughput prediction. The combination model established in the case of a few similar studies has some advantages.

Research on the Evolution and Control of Tourism Public Crisis Based on SEIR Evolutionary Game Model

QI Kai, PENG Cheng

2022, 31(3):  145-150.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0091

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The continuous evolution of tourism public crises caused by human factors will bring huge impacts and potential threats to the regional tourism industry. Good control and effective prevention of tourism public crises have become the focus of attention of scholars. This study builds a SEIR evolutionary game model based on the theory of communication dynamics and evolutionary game theory, explores the game relationship between the local government and the tourism industry's strategic choices, and the evolution path of tourists' emotional cognition under the different behavioral decisions of both parties, and analyzes the evolution of the system to benign and stable The state process is in accordance with the law, in order to provide decision support for the government. The simulation experiments show that after the outbreak of the tourism public crisis, the positive attitudes of local governments and the tourism industry can efficiently repair tourists' negative emotional perceptions and prevent the tourism crisis from continuing to evolve; local governments use fines and non-material penalties to regulate the behavior of the tourism industry. Through policy subsidies and incentives to increase its driving force in choosing and standardizing business decisions, and at the same time establishing a strict market access system, it can restore tourists' confidence and restore the image of tourist destinations, ultimately benign guidance and control and effectively prevent tourism public crises.

VIKOR Method of Rating for Rural Green Ecotourism

LIN Shan-shan, YU Gao-feng

2022, 31(3):  151-156.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0092

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According to the characteristics of rural green ecotourism, and considering the individual feelings and group benefits of tourists, this paper describes the suitability rating of rural green ecotourism from the perspective of rural green ecotourism development, and then puts forward the evaluation model and method of the suitability rating of rural green ecotourism by VIKOR. First of all, from the concept and connotation of grade assessment, this paper describes the suitability rating of rural green ecotourism, so as to avoid confusing the two essential different problems of tourism suitability rating and ranking. Then, the evaluation index and membership function of appropriate grade of rural green ecotourism are constructed, and the entropy weight determination method of evaluation index is put forward. Secondly, a VIKOR evaluation model and a binary semantic evaluation method for the appropriate grade of rural green ecotourism are proposed. Finally, through case study and comparative analysis, the rationality and feasibility of the model and method proposed in this paper are illustrated.

Optimal Investment of DC Pension Plan under Incentive Schemes and VaR Constraint

LV Wen-xin, DONG Ying-hui, WEI Si-yuan

2022, 31(3):  157-162.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0093

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We investigate the optimal portfolio problem of a DC pension fund manager for DC pension managerial compensation under loss aversion as well as the single management fee scheme and a mixed scheme with a lower management fee,as well as an additional performance fee. We apply the concavification technique to solve the problem and derive the closed-form representations of the optimal wealth and portfolio processes under the constraints on the terminal wealth. The numerical results show that the loss aversion, VaR constraint and the remuneration schemes can significantly impact the distribution of the optimal terminal wealth. When the reference point is relatively high, the mixed incentive scheme leads to lower tail risk of the optimal terminal wealth due to loss aversion.

Research on Dynamic Adjustment Mechanism of Long-term Care Insurance for Employees Financing Responsibility Sharing-Taking Qingdao as an Example

CHEN Kai, ZHAO Na, JIAO Yang

2022, 31(3):  163-170.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0094

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In view of the optimization of financing responsibility and the dynamic adjustment of financial subsidysharing, faced by employees' long-term care insurance (LTC) in Qingdao, taking the incidence of catastrophic expenditure as a reference index and combining with the theory of moderate security, a model for estimating the level of target security is constructed. On this basis, a system dynamics model of dynamic adjustment mechanism of LTC insurance for employees financing responsibility sharing is constructed. Through the simulation experiment, the dynamic adjustment of financing responsibility sharing in the process of improving the scope of protection is calculated, and a series of adjustment results with policy reference value are obtained.

Stability Evaluation of Manufacturing Enterprise Supply Chain Based on Projection Pursuit and Random Forest Method

WANG Xue-yuan, LI Shan

2022, 31(3):  171-178.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0095

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Based on the grounded theory, the influencing factors of supply chain stability of manufacturing enterprises are extracted. According to the factors' characteristics of randomness and fuzziness, the cloud model method is introduced to realize the transformation from qualitative concept to quantitative data. The important influencing factors are selected from several influencing factors, and the evaluation index system of supply chain stability of manufacturing enterprises is constructed. Using projection pursuit model based on accelerated genetic algorithm, the index weight and stability evaluation score of manufacturing enterprises are confirmed. Based on the evaluation score, the random forest method is used to classify the types of supply chain stability and test the scientific nature of the evaluation method, and determine the overall condition of the current manufacturing enterprise supply chain stability, and accordingly the suggestions for optimizing the supply chain stability of manufacturing enterprises are brought forward.

Research on the Nonlinear and Heterogeneity Influence of Financial Development on the Quality of Export Product in China

ZHAO Shuang, WANG Yu, WANG Xiao-na

2022, 31(3):  179-185.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0096

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Chinese export products tend to be large in quantity but low in quality, which directly leads to the fact that Chinese products can only be positioned at low prices in the international market. This paper calculates the quality of export products from the product level as well as the finance development indicators from the indirect financing channels at the industry level using the micro-data of the Chinese industrial enterprise database and Chinese customs database during 2000~2006, then the paper combines the data with the nonparametric quantile panel method to do the research. The results show that: (1)The impact of finance development on the quality of export products is nonlinear and heterogeneous, and the impact patterns are significantly different. It presents “inverted N-shaped” characteristic at high quintiles; (2)The optimal financial development level is differentiated at different quantiles, and it decreases as the quantile becomes lower; (3)The quality of non-eastern regions and high-tech products is more sensitive to finance development, and the improvement of finance development on the product quality is more significant at low quintiles.

Retailer's Financing Decision Choice under Uncertain Environment

ZHAO XIN, ZHANG QI, DING Li-li

2022, 31(3):  186-192.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0097

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Taking the supply chain consisting of suppliers, 3PL companies,and retailers as the research background,this paper studies the retailer's optimal decision under the 3PL financing and bank financing model in view of the retailer's financial constraints and facing uncertain market demand.A Stackelberg game model is constructed to explore how different financing methods affect the decision-making of each participant in the supply chain,and explore the feasible range of freight rates for retailers to choose 3PL financing and the feasible range of bank interest rates for bank financing. The study finds that under normal circumstances, retailers will eventually choose 3PL financing. When bank interest rates are low or shipping costs are high, retailers ultimately choose bank financing; when 3PL companies and retailers cooperate through profit transfer contracts, and retailers choose 3PL financing, collaborating parties can achieve Pareto improvement.

The Design of Mean Reversion Strategy Considering Investor Sentiment Basedon Textual Information——Evidencefrom the Posting Text of Eastmoney Stock Forum and the A-Share Market

XU Wei-jun, PENG Zi-jin, ZHANG Wei-guo, HUANG Jing-long

2022, 31(3):  193-198.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0098

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In the current internet age, more and more text messages are becoming known. With the help of machine learning and other technical tools, it has been more convenient to mine information related to investor behavior and emotion from massive text data. Based on this, this paper explores the use of textual information to portray investor sentiment and refines a mean regression strategy that uses only price information. Using the text data such as the posting content in the Oriental Wealth stock bar to construct the investor sentiment index, combined with the characteristics of irrational investment behavior, we design a new weight transfer equation and obtain a new mean regression strategy. Finally,we use price and stock bar text data of some CSI 300 constituent stocks to conduct empirical tests on this strategy. The results show that the strategy considering investor sentiment proposed in this study has better income performance than the strategy describing the mean regression characteristics only using price information.

A Study on the Dynamic Distribution, Spatial Difference and Convergence of Regional Financial Risks in China's Eight Comprehensive Economic Zones

ZHAO Wen-ju, ZHANG Zeng-lian

2022, 31(3):  199-206.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0099

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This paper studies the distribution dynamics, spatial differences and spatial convergence of regional financial risks in China's eight comprehensive economic zones from 2000 to 2018. It is found that the level of systemic financial risk, as the sum of regional financial risks, evolves from multi peak low value to single peak high value, and shows an obvious periodic change law. At present, China's systemic financial risk is in a new climbing period; During the investigation period, the spatial heterogeneity of regional financial risk differences in the eight comprehensive economic zones is prominent, and the regional differences are the main source of the overall differences; Financial risks in different regions have their own steady-state levels and different influencing factors. When regional financial risks are controlled, measures should be taken accurately according to local conditions. The research conclusion is of positive significance to control the level of regional financial risk from the regional level and hold the bottom line of no systemic financial risk.

Debt Governance, Maturity Mismatch of Local Financing Platform and Corporate Performance ——Research Based on “No.43 document”

HU Wen-xiu, LIU Huan, MA Xiao-qiang, BAI Xiong

2022, 31(3):  207-212.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0100

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Based on the panel data of 2193 local financing platforms in China from 2009 to 2018, this paper analyzes the governance effect of “No. 43” document on maturity mismatch of local financing platforms and its impact on corporate performance by using benchmark regression model and intermediary effect model, and further analyzes the mechanism of increasing the performance of local financing platforms in the process of debt governance. The results show that: (1)No.43 document improves the term mismatch problem of local financing platforms and increases the performance of enterprises, which is also verified in the robustness test; (2)No.43 document improves the term mismatch problem of provincial and provincial capital (separate listed city) local financing platforms, and correspondingly improves the performance of enterprises;(3)No.43 document improves the maturity mismatch of civil engineering and real estate local financing platforms, and correspondingly improves the performance of enterprises.

A Revenue Model for Mixed Alliance between Ports and Shipping Companies Considering Horizontal and Vertical Integration

JU Hui-zhu, ZENG Qing-cheng, GENG Shi-dao

2022, 31(3):  213-218.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0101

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With the intensification of competition in the port and shipping industry, the cooperation among ports and the vertical integration between ports and shipping companies are developing continuously. In particular, shipping companies participate in the resource integration among ports by means of acquisition or investment, forming a more complex mixed alliance between ports and shipping companies. In this paper, a revenue model based on competition and cooperation among ports and the vertical integration between ports and shipping companies is established for ports and shipping companies mixed alliance mode. The revenue of ports and shipping companies are compared under the regional port competition model and the mixed port and shipping company alliance model. Factors such as geographical location, inland transportation cost and investment effect of shipping companies are analyzed. The results show that the mixed alliance mode of ports and shipping companies will have a positive impact on both ports and shipping companies. When the infrastructure of collection and distribution between ports and inland areas is weak and the influence of shipping companies is great, non-cooperative ports will also benefit from the mixed alliance mode. At this time, the mixed mode is conducive to promoting the development of the whole regional port economy.

Management Science

Evolution Mechanism of Organizational Innovation of High-end Equipment Manufacturing Enterprises Based on Chaos Theory

JIN Wei, SHI Chun-sheng, LIXiao-ran

2022, 31(3):  219-226.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0102

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Organizational innovation evolution is the process in which high-end equipment manufacturing enterprises keep the dynamic balance between radical innovation and incremental innovation to achieve the short-term success and maintain the long-term development. These two types of organizational innovation compete for scarce resources, and nonlinear interactions between them may lead organizational innovation evolution into chaos. From the evolution perspective, this paper analyzes the four types of organizational innovation, and the innovation evolution process in which high-end equipment manufacturing enterprises balance radical innovation and incremental innovation by means of the punctuated equilibrium and the organizational ambidexterity. Then based on the population competition model, it builds the mathematical model of organizational innovation evolution of high-end equipment manufacturing enterprises, analyzes the stabilities and the evolution trends of three equilibrium points of the model, and finds that when the initial point of organizational innovation evolution appears near the trajectories into the saddle point, its small changes will lead great differences to the final evolution state of organizational innovation. The Lyapunov exponent method is used to identify the chaotic property of organizational innovation evolution of high-end equipment manufacturing enterprises. The mathematical model of organizational innovation evolution is used to simulate the chaotic evolution process of organizational innovation.Chaotic evolution rules of organizational innovation of high-end equipment manufacturing enterprises are analyzed. The main conclusions are drawn as follows: Firstly, the stronger competitive effect between radical innovation and incremental innovation is the general condition for the organizational innovation evolution of high-end equipment manufacturing enterprises to enter into chaos. Secondly, the saddle point is the turning point of organizational innovation evolution, and trajectories entering the saddle point are highly sensitive. In their influencing area, the fracture location and the transition direction of the evolution trajectory of organizational innovation are sensitive to initial conditions. The change of the saddle point is closely related to competitive abilities of radical innovation and incremental innovation and innovation resources of high-end equipment manufacturing enterprises. Thirdly, the pressure of environmental changes on radical innovation enhances the chaos of the innovation system. When the environmental pressure is relatively low, the innovation evolution has two local stable equilibrium points. However, whenradical innovation is under great environmental pressure, its evolution state depends on initial conditions. Due to the complex competitive relationship between radical innovation and incremental innovation, incremental innovation evolution also enters into chaos. The local stable equilibrium points of innovation evolution are no longer stable. Although they still attract innovation evolution trajectories, the evolution states are uncertain.

An Evaluation Method of Multi-advantages for Independent Director Governance Based on the Hierarchical Structure

YANG Kai, ZHAO Xi-nan, ZHOU Yan

2022, 31(3):  227-232.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0103

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In this research, an evaluation method for multi-advantages considering hierarchical structure is proposed to solve the independent director governance advantage assessment in corporate governance. In this method, firstly, the advantage weights of every independent director in hierarchical structure are set using the individual advantage identification method from the better action conforming to natural rules theory. Then, according to the results of weight, the individual agent assessment and democratic agent evaluation for every hierarchy are put forward, and at the same time competitive advantages and team advantages are calculated by thehierarchical model. Furthermore, the hierarchical clustering analysis of individual advantage identification results is carried out and the similar value parameters are clustered as the same class. The distribution and structure of the pattern are calculated in the light of value parameters. Moreover, the multi-advantage elements are determined by establishing and solving the advantage identification model. Finally, an example of independent directors from A company governance evaluation is used to justify the proposed method.

Optimal Factoring and Production Policy with Deterministic Demand

LI Yan-hai, HU Xia-lian

2022, 31(3):  233-239.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0104

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The convention of selling on credit results in mass accumulation of accounts receivable on the firm's balance sheet. The financially constrained firm has no enough working capital to invest in accounts receivable and cover the production cost incurred during the credit period. To finance future business, the firm can employ factoring to advance cash from its accounts receivable, i.e., selling the accounts receivable to a financial institution (called a factor) at a discount. In such a financing scheme, the discrete-time dynamic inventory control problem with deterministic demand can be formulated as a linear program. Based on the structural property of this optimization problem, a novel and equivalent modelling approach is proposed to reduce the number of decision variables and constraint conditions. This new modelling approach is also applicable in the continuous-time case and mixed case, and can formulate the firm's problem as a continuous linear program. By replacing the functional (infinite-dimensional) decision variables with piece-wise constant functions, the continuous and mixed models can be converted into discretization (finite-dimensional) problems. The optimal solution of the discretization problem is a feasible and approximate optimal solution of the original optimization model. Finally, the numerical examples are conducted to analyze the impact of discount rate on the firm's profit.