Table of Content

25 April 2022, Volume 31 Issue 4

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Public Sentiment Evolution Model and Corresponding Guidance Strategies under Major Epidemic

LIU Yang, TIAN Jun, ZHOU Kun

2022, 31(4):  1-7.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0105

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After the outbreak of major epidemic, people in different areas have different risk perceptions in different periods. So public sentiments are various and their change laws have different characteristics. The existing studies usually describe the process of public sentiment evolution by data mining. There is no explicit mathematical model to depict the law of public sentiment evolution at present. Therefore, the governments are unlikely to develop effectiveinformation releasestrategies for guiding public sentiment. In view of this problem, we investigate people’s sentiment in different areas with various risks under the COVID-19. We find that people are very much concerned with COVID-19 and the public main sentiment is fear. Moreover, we get the fear levels of people in different areas in different periods using graded paired comparison method. The public fear evolution models in different risk areas are built, and we get the evolution process of COVID-19 with crisis life cycle theory. Afterwards, we get the characteristics and differences of people’s fear change. Finally, some important countermeasures for releasing information are proposed. The findings can provide theoretical support for prevention and control measures, accurately guide public rational behavior and avoid the extreme social emotion for major epidemic, as well as form a new research perspective for emotional management under major epidemic.

Multi-center Location of Medicine Logistics with Uncertain Suppliers

YUAN Zhi-yuan, GAO Jie, YANG Cai-jun

2022, 31(4):  8-13.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0106

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According to the national 4+7 medicine centralized purchasing review standards, based on the quality, supply ability and relevant qualifications of pharmaceutical production enterprise, and its competitors’ ability, we discuss the multi logistic centers location problem with uncertain suppliers. We establish the medicine center location model with optimal cost, and design a multi-stage Tabu search algorithm to solve it. The model and algorithm are tested by a real word example. The results show that the model and algorithm can optimize the location of the logistics center for medicines.

An Improved Grasshopper Optimization Algorithm in Application of Bi-objective Location Problem for Emergency Materials Centers

PENG Da-jiang, YE Chun-ming, ZHAO Ling-wei

2022, 31(4):  14-20.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0107

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Emergencies like disasters and diseases occur all over the world in recent years, which seriously affect the guarantee of living material for the people. In this circumstance, emergency materials centers should be established immediately to solve the urgent problem. Such problems are usually in the situation that resources are in severe shortage and the time is relatively limited. Therefore, it is necessary to obtain a reasonable emergency facility location plan in a short time to improve the quality and efficiency of services. We research on emergency materials centers location problem, proposing a bi-objective discrete location model concerning the follow-up transportation cost and emergency with probability which leads to the failure of delivering the materials, and then design a binary multi-objective grasshopper optimization algorithm for this problem. The algorithm makes use of fuzzy correlation entropy to guide the iteration and evolution. At the same time, external archive, mechanism of choosing the best solution, and competitive decision are added to enhance the performance of the algorithm. A few of numerical experiments show that the algorithm owns high computing efficiency and good solution quality, which can be a feasible and efficient algorithm for emergency materials centers location problem.

Research on the Offline StoresDensity Strategy for Online Retailers under Omni-channel Retail Environment

PENG Yang, LU Jin-hang, YAN Xiao-ming

2022, 31(4):  21-27.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0108

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Omnichannel retail brings value to retailers and consumers by integrating online and offline. However, implementing omnichannel requires more operation cost, and proper offline store layout is the key to success. Based on the theory of consumer utility and optimization, this paper investigates the pricing decision, optimal store densityand related conditions of omnichannel implementation,by analyzing the balance of interests between retailers and consumers. Theresults show that: omnichannel pricing has a significant relationship with offline inconvenience cost and other factors; appropriate offline store density is the key to the success of BOPS strategy, and the optimal density is related to omni-channel implementation intensity and offline distance cost effect, and BOPS store density is greater than BOPS+SFS. Omni-channel strategy is not always profitable. When the offline distance cost effect is low, BOPS mode is better than single online channel. However, when the offline inconvenience coefficient or the BOPS operationcost coefficient is high BOPS+SFS is more feasible.

Research on the Optimization of Multimodal Transportation Route Considering Order Consolidation and Freight Transshipment

LI Zhao-jin, LIU Ya, YAND Zhen

2022, 31(4):  28-34.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0109

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In order to obtain the economies of scale effect of transportation, this paper studies a route optimization problem of LTL multimodal transport considering order consolidation and freight transshipment. Firstly, the total transportation cost is taken as the objective function, a mixed integer programming model is constructed with the constraints of the capacity of transportation vehicles, the maximum number of vehicles that can be provided, the closing time of vehicle services and the time window of orders. In the model, the consolidation of multiple orders are allowed and the transshipment cost is considered. Secondly, as the multimodal transportation route optimization problem is a typical NP hard problem, in order to quickly solve the problem, a column generation heuristic is developed which can quickly provide approximate optimal solution and lower bound for the problem. Finally, a large number of instances are generated and tested. The results show that the developed column generation heuristic can provide high-quality approximate optimal solution in a short time. The model and the developed column generation heuristic can provide efficient decision support for LCL self-operated multimodal transport logistics companies.

Optimization of Emergency Resource Scheduling in A Major Maritime Oil Spill Accident Considering Dynamic Motion of Oil Films

ZHANG Ling-ye, LU Jing, BAN Hao, FAN Han-wen

2022, 31(4):  35-40.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0110

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According to the dynamic characteristics of oil films in the emergency response to oil spill, a multi-objective optimization model of maritime oil spill emergency resource scheduling is proposed, which takes into consideration both the objective of responsiveness and that of economical cost. This model also comprehensively respects the constraints and specifics of the response to oil spill, such as time-varying demand in emergency resources at the demand points, uncertainty in the state of the associated transportation networks and the interrelationship between decision making and external surroundings. According to the specifics of the model, a heuristic framework based on whale optimization algorithm is proposed. This algorithm makes use of the nonlinear convergence factor to overcome the disadvantage of the local optimum, into which the algorithm is easy to fall in the later stage. Moreover, the niche sharing mechanism is introduced to ensure the diversity of solutions. Finally, the validity and feasibility of the proposed model and approaches are verified through the simulation cases. The results show that this method can provide high-quality decision support for decision makers.

Research on the Multi-manned Mixed-model Assembly Line Balancing Problem with the Workstation Quantity Constraint

ZHAO Wen-yan, ZHANG Shi-zhe, SHI Liu-liu

2022, 31(4):  41-48.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0111

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Workstations of some assembly line are not easy to change in the process of design and upgrading because of space or cost limit. The multi-manned mixed-model assembly line balancing problem with the workstation quantity constraint is studied under the condition of known cycle time. A mathematical model of multi-manned mixed model assembly line balance problem is established with minimizing objectives. These objectives include total number of assembly line workers, standard deviation of workers’ load and sum of standard deviation between assembly time of different products and cycle time. A hybrid multi-objective genetic algorithm combined with differential evolution is designed to solve the problem. The model and algorithm prove to be valid by calculating the example and comparing with other algorithm. The algorithm is superior to NSGAII and DEMO in convergency and comprehensive performance, and stays ahead of the method which is proposed by Roshani and Nezami in total number of assembly line workers and standard deviation of workers’ load.

Study on Differential Game Model and Macro-environmental Governance Strategy in Adjacent Desert Areas

SUN Jia-yi, TAN De-qing

2022, 31(4):  49-54.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0112

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The development of industrialization has led to the further desertification of fragile land, and governments in desertification areas should comprehensively consider economic development and the degradation of ecological quality caused by land desertification. This paper establishes a differential game model for two desertification areas to discuss the desert governance problems, the results show that improving industrial production emission technology or desert control technology can increase equilibrium economic output level, and they can also increase the investment level of desert control when the economic return coefficient is high, and there is an interactive effect between the two technologies; In areas with high level of production emission technology and desert control technology, extending the term of leadership of local governments leaders is more conducive to desertification control; The investment of controlling land re-desertification in the condition of completely combating desert is lower than that of controlling desert stable in a certain scale.

Research on Dynamic Game Model and Complexity Considering Different Low-carbon Strategies under Carbon Tax Mechanism

ZHENG Qing, AR Budureheman·Kader

2022, 31(4):  55-60.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0113

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The paper establishes the dynamic game model in which duopoly manufacturers implement waste recycling and green low-carbon advertising investment strategies, under carbon emission tax. The system stability region, bifurcation diagram, power spectrum and other methods are used to analyze the stability of the Nash equilibrium solution on the game model, and the influence of parameters on the system stability region. We study the complexity characteristics of the system. The results show an increasein the sensitivity of consumer recycling prices can reduce the stability of the entire system, and an increasein the level of low-carbon advertising can only expand the stability of the self. Too fast adjustment speed of price can make the system enter in chaos. Further, compared with manufacturers who implement advertising strategies, another price adjusting can cause greater market turbulence. Finally, the feedback control strategy is used to control the system chaos.

Game Analysis of Cooperative Behavior Evolution of the PPP Model of Rural Human Settlement Improvement under the Rural Revitalization Strategy

ZOU Guo-liang, LIU Na-na, LIANG Yan-ru

2022, 31(4):  61-68.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0114

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The improvement of rural human settlement environment is an important part of rural revitalization strategy. Based on the finite rational evolutionary game theory, a cooperative behavior evolutionary game model of rural habitat remediation PPP model with local government, social capital and rural residents as the main game players is constructed, and the influence of the initial willingness of the three players and government regulation on the evolution of their behavioral strategies is analyzed by Matlab software. It is found that: (1)the influence of government regulation on the evolution of the cooperative game system of the rural habitat remediation PPP model is as follows: government subsidies to social capital, speculation penalty, cooperation bonus, and government incentives to rural residents for participation, are in descending order of magnitude. (2)Compared with increasing the subsidies and penalties for social capital, increasing the initial willingness of local governments to incentivize regulation is more likely to facilitate the smooth implementation of rural habitat improvement PPP projects. (3)The key to increasing the initial willingness of rural residents to participate in PPP projects is to increase the benefits of rural residents’ participation. Finally, corresponding recommendations are made to promote the application and development of PPP in rural environmental management and to promote sustainable improvement of rural habitat improvement.

Evolutionary Game Analysis between Governments and Enterprises in the Regeneration of Old Industrial Buildings

LI Li, WU Qian, ZHANG Xin-yue

2022, 31(4):  69-74.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0115

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With the rise of new digital industrial manufacturing and the rapid development of large and medium-sized urbanization, more and more industrial enterprises have relocated or gone bankrupt, leaving a large number of idle old industrial buildings. To protect the cultural value of old industrial buildings, help solve the brownfield governance problem, and improve the soft power of regional competition, this paper builds an evolutionary game model for the regeneration of old industrial buildings. The evolutionary stability and optimal strategy of governments and enterprises are further analyzed. According to the results of the game analysis, the costs and benefits of regeneration of old industrial buildings, the government’s incentives and punishments for relevant enterprises, and the media attention to the cultural preservation of old industrial buildings will directly affect the game results. Based on evolutionary game analysis, we suggest that the government should introduce a third-party supervisory agency, establish a reward and punishment mechanism, increase subsidies for brownfield governance, and widely publicize the cultural content in old industrial buildings. Enterprises should actively seek technological innovation and accumulate relevant experience in the regeneration of old industrial buildings.

Study on Coordination of Dual-channel Supply Chain Considering Product Green Degree

YU Na-na, WANG Dao-ping, ZHAO Chao

2022, 31(4):  75-81.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0116

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Under the background that consumer demand is affected by price and product green degree, considering the manufacturer increases the demand by increasing the product green degree and the free-riding effect between dual-channel demand, this paper establishes centralized and decentralized game models, and designs a joint contract with revenue sharing and cost sharing to coordinate supply chain. The results show that both the direct channel price and the traditional channel price will increase with the improvement of product green degree, the rising range of the direct channel price will slow down with the increase of the free riding consumer proportion, while the rising range of the traditional channel price will accelerate with the increase of the free riding consumer proportion. It is also found that the introduction of joint contract can effectively reduce the direct channel prices and traditional channel prices, increase product green degree and supply chain total demand, so that the total profit of the supply chain achieves the level of centralized decision-making.

Research on Consumer Credit Payment Strategy in Green Supply Chain

LIN Zhi-bing, LI Yu-wen

2022, 31(4):  82-90.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0117

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This article considers a green supply chain composed of a single supplier and a single e-commerce platform and analyzes the impact of three different payment strategies (immediate payment strategy, installment strategy and minimum repayment strategy) on the optimal decisions and profits of supply chain members. The research shows that: (1)grace period sensitivity coefficient has positive effects on the green marketing level and the profits of supply chain members. (2)Credit payment will cause premium phenomenon for products, but under certain conditions, the credit payment strategy can improve the profits of supply chain members and the green marketing level at the same time, and induces a win-win situation in both economic and environmental performances. (3)When the processing fee rate is high, if the credit term coefficient is small, the immediate payment strategy will be the best. If the credit term coefficient is moderate, the installment strategy will be the best. Otherwise, the minimum repayment strategy will be the best. The minimum repayment strategy will be the best if the processing fee rate is low and the credit period is small, otherwise the immediate payment strategy will be the best. On this basis, a combination contract of cost sharing and revenue sharing is designed for two credit payment models to coordinate the supply chain.

Zoning Design and ABC Classification Analysis of Grid-Based Compact Storage System

MA Yun-feng, WU Bei-ping, JIN Yu-qing

2022, 31(4):  91-97.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0118

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The grid-based compact storage system can store goods intensively; it can maintain a fine accessibility of goods while achieving high space utilization. The existing researches on this problem focus on basic issues such as the algorithm design for minimizing the retrieval time, but how to make better use of these research’s outcomes to improve the design of the system has not been unfolded yet. This paper employs the existing algorithm research results to analyze the performance of the different layouts of the grid compact storage system. We design an open queuing network consisting of two parts: a storage zoning subsystem based on the retrieval time, and an ABC classification subsystem based on the frequency of demand for goods in each zone, respectively. Take 10×10 grid as an example, computational experiments show that compared with random storage allocation rules, the expected retrieval time achieved by zoning a grid-based storage system can be reduced by 53.8%; on this basis ABC classification can further improve the system performance by up to 46.5%, and can also greatly reduce the waiting time due to queuing.

Facilities Configuration Optimization of Robotic Mobile Fulfillment Systems ——Based on Closed Queuing Network Model

FENG Ai-lan, YANG Teng, MA Li-kun, KONG Ji-li

2022, 31(4):  98-103.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0119

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The fulfillment process of the shelf scheduling task in the Robotic Mobile Fulfillment Systems is analyzed. A closed queue network model is established according to the operation processes of robots,including shelf loading, transportation, picking and unloading. The approximate mean value analysis algorithm is used to solve the problem and can evaluate system performance rapidly. The comparison with the simulation experiment proves that the experimental error does not exceed 5%. Finally, the closed queueing network model is used to evaluate the selection station, robot utilization and fulfillment ability, to optimize system facility configuration. The experiments show that the uniform distribution of the picking stations on the longer sides of the warehouse can improve the performance of the system; the optimal number of robots in the system makes the system have the higher comprehensive utilization.

Research on Software Reliability Model Considering Multiple Types of Faults

QIU Hui, YAN Xiang-bin, PENG Rui

2022, 31(4):  104-108.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0120

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This paper proposes a software reliability model that considers multiple types of defects, and proposes a model for the two processes of defect detection and elimination. The specific classification situation can be specifically determined according to the model's test method (fitting criteria and predictive validity measurement) and model complexity. If there is a tester's classification suggestion or classification data, it can be determined jointly with the model. In order to illustrate the problem, specific models of four types of defects are given, and actual data sets are fitted. Through model comparison, the validity of multiple types of defect models is verified. Finally, the model is applied by constructing the optimal software release time strategy. The research results provide a theoretical reference for software development and testing.

Application Research

Evaluation of Technological Innovation and Sustainable Development Capability Based on Cloud Model and Evidence Theory

ZHANG Kai, ZHANG Ming-hui

2022, 31(4):  109-115.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0121

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In order to scientifically and reasonably evaluate technological innovation and sustainable development capabilities of enterprises, the article starts with establishment of an index system for evaluation of enterprise technological innovation and sustainable development from three aspects: the foundation and current situation of technological innovation, technological innovation organization and management capabilities, and technological innovation sustainable development capabilities, and then build an evaluation model of technological innovation and sustainable development capability based on cloud model and evidence theory with regard to the uncertainty of indicators. First, the cloud model is used to transform the evaluation index into interval numbers and the interval entropy weight method is used to determine the index weight. Second, the evidence theory is used to calculate the confidence of the index to obtain the evaluation result of the evaluation object. Finally, taking a provincial company of State Grid as an example, the evaluation model based on cloud model and evidence theory and the interval evidence reasoning method are used to conduct evaluation research to verify the feasibility, accuracy, scientificity and rationality of the evaluation model. It is concluded that the construction of sustainable development capabilities of technological innovation should be strengthened in the technological innovation and sustainable development of enterprises.

Research on Evaluation of Major Complex Projects Based on Multiple Value Goals

GAO Ji-bing, SONG Kui, JIAO Jian-ling

2022, 31(4):  116-122.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0122

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Major complex projects are the priority to promote high-quality development.Combining with the current new situation of high-quality development in China, this paper proposes a sextuple value target system for the life cycle evaluation of major complex projects, including economic, social, natural, scientific and technological, cultural, and talent aspects. Its generation mechanism and the relationships with stakeholders and the life cycle are theoretically analyzed.Based on the complex system theory, the theoretical framework of multiple value goals evaluation for the whole life cycle of a major complex project is constructed from the perspective of operating system layer, the system layer, and the supersystem layer incorporating external environment. Finally, a preliminary application study of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge project is carried out under the framework. This study enriches the theoretical evaluation system of major complex projects and provides theoretical guidance and reference for management practice.

Fuzzy Effective Measurement Method Based on DEA Cross-evaluation

SI Qin, MA Zhan-xin

2022, 31(4):  123-128.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0123

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For the evaluation problem of a multi-attribute fuzzy event with fuzzy indexes and efficiency indexes, a fuzzy effective measurement method based on DEA cross-evaluation is proposed. First, the method uses the DEA cross-efficiency evaluation method to evaluate the efficiency indexes, and the result is transformed into fuzzy membership by the fuzzy treatment. Then, the fuzzy evaluation results possible set is constructedby the above resultsand the fuzzy membership of the fuzzy indexes, the concept of fuzzy effectiveness is given, and the corresponding mathematical model is constructed. Compared with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the model can not only find out the effectiveness of fuzzy objects, but alsothe gap between the lower object and the effective object, and provide useful information based on the fuzzy possible set.

Policy Effects Concerning the Coexistence of Renewable Portfolio Standards and Emissions Trading

BAO Xiong-jinatao, ZHAO Wen-hui, SONG Ya-jun, WANG Xiao-mei

2022, 31(4):  129-135.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0124

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The Chinese government will implement renewable portfolio standards (RPS) and emissions trading (ET) in the power industry. The retailer will be required to comply with the quota obligation. This paper constructs the two-echelon supply chain to study interactions between RPS and ET and their policy effects. The results indicate the following conclusions. When RPS has operated, introducing ET causes in an increase in the wholesale price of thermal power and the retail electricity price, whereas the wholesale price of electricity from the renewable energy source (RES-E) decreases. Thus, the introduction of ET is beneficial for realizing a level competition field between two types of power. However, ET also gives rise to an increase in the retail price, which dampens the consumer’s demand for power, which can be strengthened by the rising carbon permit price and carbon abatement cost. On the other side, when the quota obligation and the difference between retailers increase, the cost that the retailer passes on the retailer will decrease. As a result, the decreasing range of renewable power prices and growing retail prices drop, but the internalization of the environment is not affected. Besides, a higher quota obligation and a larger difference between retailers also attenuate the fluctuation of the power price and the demand for the power caused by the rise of carbon permit price and the cost of carbon abatement.

Financial Distress Prediction for Listed SME Based on the Text Information

CHEN Yi-yun

2022, 31(4):  136-143.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0125

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Massive textual information about the listed small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) has been obtained from the Internet with the web crawler, including information disclosure by the enterprises and online news media reports. All the textual information has been quantified with the bag of words method, and added to the financial distress prediction model based on financial variables. The empirical results show the management tone based on the information disclosure, the media sentiment and the proportion of negative reports based on the online news media reports can be used to improve the fitness and predictive power of the financial distress prediction model. Additionally, different sources of textual information should be analyzed with different lists of words. Although only focusing on listed SME, no market information has been included in the analysis, so that the results can be extended to non-listed SME.

Can Foreign Rating Agencies Play a“Catfish Effect” in Entering China?

AN Xiao-xue

2022, 31(4):  144-148.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0126

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In recent years, China’s credit rating industry has gradually opened to the outside world. China’s regulatory authorities have successively approved foreign rating agencies with international influence such as S&P and Fitch to enter China’s rating market. In this context, this paper uses the game model to analyze the impact of foreign rating agencies entering the Chinese market on the rating quality of local rating agencies. The study finds that the entry of foreign rating agencies with high reputation into the Chinese market can stimulate the fair rating of local rating agencies and promote the formation of a virtuous circle in the rating industry. The conclusion of this paper provides theoretical support for the opening of China’s credit rating industry and the introduction of more foreign rating agencies with international influence.

Competitive Strategies of Manufacturer and Copycat under Network Effects

LI Bo, ZHEN Zi-yan, HOU Peng-wen

2022, 31(4):  149-155.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0127

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Recently, copycat has attracted a great social attention. In this paper, we construct a two-period game model between a brand manufacturer and a copycat, where customers are strategic. The manufacturer acts the market monopolist in the first period, while if the copycat enters the market at the beginning of the second period, it will become a duopoly market. Except for the competition effects caused by the entry of copycat, the similar design of the two products will also cause network effects, thereby increasing the market acceptance of the branded product. Thus, faced with the potential entry of the copycat, the manufacturer should balance the trade-off between negative competition effects and positive network effects at the same time. Our results show that: (1)network effects may not always have positive effects on the price and demand of the manufacturer and the copycat. (2)the quality of the copycat’s products cannot be over-improved. When the quality of copycat’s product is sufficiently close to that of the manufacturer, both two firms may be worse off. (3)when the network effects is higher or the quality of copycat’s product is lower, the brand manufacturer’s demand under monopoly market may be lower than that under the duopoly market.

Multiple Performances of A-P-S Combination Strategy and Its Bleaching Effect

JIA Shu-wei

2022, 31(4):  156-162.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0128

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In order to reduce the degree of urban traffic congestion and air pollution, this paper introduces a penalty policy on the basis of existing research, and constructs a vehicle pollutant emission reduction control model using the principle of system dynamics. Through simulation and comparative analysis, the effects of air pollution charging fee (APCF), penalty and subsidy policies (A-P-S strategy) are explored. The results show that, on the one hand, the combination strategy has multiple performance, which can not only reduce pollution loss (economic-environmental benefits), the life value (social-economic benefits), traffic congestion (social benefits), and the total amount of motor vehicle pollutants (environmental benefits), but also greatly improve the environmental ecological carrying capacity (environmental performance). On the other hand, the policy will also encounter some limitations in the implementation process, such as the initial lag, the later bleaching and rebound effects. Therefore, in the long run, it is necessary to adjust the combination plan in time. Finally, according to the simulation results, the following policy recommendations are put forward: in view of the limitation of single policy, the combination of three policies should be fully considered in order to play its multiple performances. In view of the lag effect in the early stage, publicity should be strengthened to make citizens realize the responsibility and significance of air pollution and traffic congestion control, so as to improve the support of the policy. In view of the bleaching effect of portfolio policy, the combination scheme should be adjusted in time according to the actual situation to achieve the purpose of optimization. These policy recommendations can provide decision-making reference for the relevant departments such as urban transportation and environmental protection.

Ecommerce Platform Sales Strategy Based on Return Policy

WANG Yu-ting, CHEN Ke-hong, WANG Lan-ting, DONG Ke

2022, 31(4):  163-168.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0129

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This paper studies how an e-commerce platform chooses the appropriate sales model with false failure returns. Based on the impact of selling price and return price on market demand and return, platform can strategically choose reseller model and agency model. We formulate a Stackelberg game where the e-commerce platform leads by first choosing sales model while the manufacturer follows by making decisions under the corresponding sales model. This study finds that the platform should provide an agency model when demand is less sensitive to sales price or more sensitive to the return price, or the amount of returned goods is less sensitive to the return price, otherwise it should provide a reseller model. Then we explore the effect of the platform’s optimal sales strategy on the manufacturer’s profit.Therefore, this study can serve as a guidance for the platform and the manufacturer’s sales model selection.

Research on Associated Credit Risk Contagion Model of Cross-border Innovation Alliance

GAO Chang-yuan, ZHANG Yi-lin, WANG Jing

2022, 31(4):  169-175.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0130

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Cross-border innovation alliance is an effective form of resource integration and sharing in the process of enterprise innovation. However, while bringing benefits of enterprise innovation resource sharing, the complex association relationship in the alliance also constitutes a new channel to the credit risk contagion of alliance. This paper combines the complex network theory with the model of infectious disease, according to the characteristics of cross-border innovation alliance, and on the basis of the original asset correlation study, comprehensively considers three correlation relationships of industry correlation, asset correlation and innovation cooperation correlation, improves the infectious disease model of risk transmission, and carries out numerical simulation experiments. The results show that industry correlation, asset correlation and innovation cooperation correlation have a comprehensive impact on the threshold of associated credit risk contagion with cross-border innovation alliance. Increasing the factors of industry correlation and innovation cooperation correlation is conducive to improving the accuracy of the threshold of associated credit risk contagion. In addition, the lower the industry correlation degree, the higher the innovation cooperation correlation degree, the smaller the density of infected members.

Impact and Heterogeneity of National Audit on Government Health Expenditure ——Based on Bayesian Quantile Regression Model

LU Wei-xue, WU He-cheng, WANG Li-wen

2022, 31(4):  176-183.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0131

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This paper uses the 2007~2016 provincial~level data to explore the impact of national audit governance on government health expenditure and the heterogeneous effect of various influencing factors at different levels of government health expenditure via the Bayesian quantile regression. The results show that the national audit has a significant governance function with respect to corruption in government health expenditure. The greater the investment in national audit, the better its ability to monitor, prevent, reveal, and resist, and the more helpful it is to increase government health expenditure. Besides, under different levels of government health expenditures, the impact of national audit governance is heterogeneous. Therefore, to strengthen the governance of corruption and promote government health expenditure, we need to focus on the implementation of the top~level design of national audits and strengthen cooperation between multiple departments to promote collaborative audits. Furthermore, we should also make corresponding policy adjustments based on specific government health expenditure level to avoid the disadvantages caused by local “policy convergence”.

Research on the Classified Measurement and Promotion Modes of Regional Green Technology Innovation Efficiency in China ——SBM-SupSBM Model Based on Unexpected Output

LI Hao, FAN De-cheng, ZHANG Shu-hua, MA Li-hong

2022, 31(4):  184-189.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0132

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In this paper, SBM-SupSBM model considering unexpected output is used to estimate and classify the green technology innovation efficiency of provinces and cities in China: stable rising, stable, large fluctuation and falling categories. Then, from the internal and external aspects of the enterprise, the paper puts forward the hypothesis on the influencing factors of green technology innovation efficiency improvement, focusing on the efficiency improvement of provinces with large fluctuations. We use panel data model to verify the influencing factors. The results show that: the scale of enterprises has a significant inhibitory effect on the provinces where the efficiency of green technology innovation fluctuates greatly, while the environmental regulations and technological progress have no significant effect on the provinces where the efficiency of green technology innovation fluctuates greatly. The paper puts forward the conclusion: in the process of improving the efficiency of green technology innovation, we should pay attention to the synergy of enterprise scale and technology progress, as well as the degree of technology openness.

A Study on Financial Capacity under the PPP Mode: A Case on Sichuan Province

TIAN Fa, LIU Meng-yao

2022, 31(4):  190-196.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0133

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Employing the data of Sichuan province that has entered the China Public Private Partnerships Center Management Database of the Ministry of Finance, this paper forecasts the general public budget expenditure of prefecture-level cities (autonomous prefectures) and cities (prefectures) in 2020~2025 by using the autoregressive integrated moving average model, and then evaluates whether the fiscal capacity of cities and states will touch the “10%” line with the existing PPP projects. The results show that there are two prefecture-level cities exceeding the “red line” of 10%, seven surpassing the “warning line” of 7%, and other twelve (includingautonomous prefectures) possessing good fiscal spending capacity. The industries and fields of PPP project are relatively concentrated, and various industrial investment structures are presented in different cities. Finally, some suggestions are put forward from three aspects: promoting the PPP projects according to the different fiscal capacity of the local economy, evaluating PPP projects considering distributions of the industries and fields, and optimizing monitoring as well as the early warning system of fiscal expenditure responsibility of PPP projects. This study helps to justify the argument about the financial affordability of PPP projects, and helps the government screen and determine the PPP projects and evaluate their scale scientifically and reasonably.

Private Funds Size, Subscription-Redemption Mechanism and Dynamic Moral Hazard

HU Rong, ZHENG Jun

2022, 31(4):  197-203.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0134

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This paper uses the dynamic contract theory and the real option theory to study the general characteristics of the optimal incentive compatibility contract of private funds, and then examines the role of the private fund size and the subscription-redemption mechanism to alleviate the moral hazard. The conclusion shows that the optimal incentive compatibility contract of private funds is determined by the maximum expected return of the investor and the maximum expected payoff of the manager, and the purchase of private funds is similar to going long on a special option whose underlying asset price is measured by the manager’s continuationpayoff. The incentive cost of an investor to motivate managers to work hard increases with the initial size of the funds or the ratio of repurchase, and the optimal fund size is determined by its marginal incentive cost and expected marginal performance. The cost of redemption affects the maximum expected return of the investor, but has no significant effect on relieving moral hazard. Appropriate performanceincentives can reduce the moral hazard, and the performance incentives can be replaced with the initial size or repurchase ratio of private funds in relieving moral hazard.

Online Strategies of Stock Investment Considerin Investors’ Overconfidence Preference

DING Lili, LIU Meng-xi, KANG Wang-lin

2022, 31(4):  204-210.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0135

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When the stock prices or stock returns has no exact probability distribution or insufficient statistics, the online stock investment problem has obtained widespread concern. That is, investors are able to adopt online algorithm and competitive analysis to design better online investment strategies when dealing with various uncertain stock prices. This paper introduces the cognitive bias of investor's overconfidence preference into the issue of stock online investment, constructs the game models of both off-line opponents and stock online investors, and gives the optimal mixed strategies and mixed strategies Nash equilibrium under the general situation and the situation of momentum effect, respectively. The results finds that, the optimal mixed strategies under both situations not only overcome the over-dependence of traditional stock investment strategies on the assumption of stock price or probability distribution of stock returns, but also better abstract the characteristics of online investors, i.e. overconfidence and blindly gamble. This research is a useful supplement to the existing researches on behavioural finance and financial busy transactions.

Simulation Research on Recipients’ Gratitude and Blackmail Behaviors from the Perspective of Social Evolution

ZHANG Wen-ming, XU Jie, YANG Wen-xiu

2022, 31(4):  211-216.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0136

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Starting from an indirect reciprocity model considering mutation, this paper simulates the helping behavior in society by using agent-based modeling technology, and then introduces gratitude and blackmail into the model to explore the impact of these two behaviors from the perspective of social evolution. Only if the gratitude behavior is taken into account, it is found that gratitude can promote a society considering mutation to evolve into a friendly society. However, if the blackmail behavior of the recipients is further introduced, it is found that blackmail has caused the indifference of the whole society, and blindly emphasizing gratitude can not completely eliminate the impact of the blackmail event. Only by ensuring that the victim’s friendliness to the society is not affected by the blackmail event is the key to making the society evolve into a friendly society again.

Management Science

Research on the Impact of Shadow Banking on the Upgrading of Manufacturing Enterprises

WANG Yu, WANG Xiao-na, SANG Tong-tong

2022, 31(4):  217-223.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0137

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Based on the micro-data of listed manufacturing companies from 2011 to 2018 and the non-parametric quantile model based on B-spline expansion, this paper describes the nonlinear heterogeneous influence of shadow banking on enterprise upgrading. The results show that: (1)The fitting curve of the impact of enterprise shadow banking on enterprise upgrading has nonlinear characteristics, roughly showing an “inverted U-shape”, indicating that there is the most effective scale of enterprise shadow banking activities; (2)There is significant heterogeneity in the shadow banking of enterprises located at different quantiles, as follows: the higher the level of enterprise level, the greater the curvature of the fitting curve, that is, the higher the sensitivity, the lower the most effective scale of shadow banking activities; (3)The optimal scale of shadow banking of enterprises with different property rights also has heterogeneity. The best advantage of non-state-owned enterprises is greater than that of state-owned enterprises, and the low quantile non-state-owned enterprises mainly play a promoting role; (4)Moderate shadow banking activities will ease the financing constraints faced by enterprises and promote enterprise innovation and investment, which is conducive to enterprise upgrading, while excessive shadow banking activities will strengthen financing constraints, which is not conducive to enterprise upgrading.

Identification of Key Influencing Factors and Transmission Network Diagram of Performance Differentiation of Chinese Manufacturing Enterprises

HUANG Bing-jie, ZHANG Tong-bin

2022, 31(4):  224-231.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0138

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Big data related research and machine learning methods provide a new way to find the key factors of performance differentiation in China's manufacturing industry and explore the transmission path of key factors to performance differentiation. Based on the ridge regression and LASSO algorithm, we screen out the important influencing factors of Chinese manufacturing performance differentiation, and then construct Bayesian networks to determine the dependence of manufacturing performance differentiation on key factors. The results show that the most important factor affecting the performance differentiation of Chinese manufacturing enterprise is capital productivity. The manufacturing industry in China follows a performance growth model of “capital efficiency-driven” rather than “capital quantity-driven”. The leverage ratio is relatively less important among the factors influencing the performance differentiation of enterprises in the raw materials industry. The capital-intensive characteristics of equipment manufacturing industry determine the important role of capital cost and asset liquidity in the performance differentiation of enterprises. As to consumer goods industrial enterprises, whether they can achieve economies of scale is also a significant factor affecting their performance level.

Enterprises’ Low Carbon Production Behavior in the Case of Market Autonomy and Low Carbon Certification

LIU Wen-wen, HU Zhen-hua

2022, 31(4):  232-239.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0139

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The willingness to pay low carbon products of consumers and the government environmental policies drive enterprises to examine their low-carbon production decisions. Based on evolutionary game theory, this paper analyzes the behavior of low carbon production of enterprise groups under the situation of market autonomy and government involvement in low carbon certification by incorporating the factors that affect enterprises’ decision-making on low carbon production into the game framework of bounded rationality. The results show that the low carbon productiondecisions of enterprises are influenced by the low carbon income and fair utility. In the initial stage of the market, low carbon costs are relatively high, and there are few rational consumers with low carbon knowledge. The asymmetry of low carbon information between enterprises and consumers leads to the failure of enterprises to obtain appropriate low carbon premium income. In a completely autonomous market, it is difficult for enterprises to take the initiative in low carbon production only by their own decisions. Low carbon certification can accelerate the benign transformation of the market to enterprises’ low carbon production when the market reaches a certain proportion of products with low carbon certification.