Table of Content

25 February 2022, Volume 31 Issue 2

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Sludy

Modelling Mode Choice Behavior Based on Regret Theory

YU Xiao-juan, ZOU Zheng-xing, ZHANG Qian-fan

2022, 31(2):  1-7.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0035

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This paper studies commuters' travel behavior between carpooling and solo driving in morning rush hours. We first use the equilibrium condition in the bottleneck model to derive commuters' generalized travel cost under no-toll and first-best tolling schemes. Then we use the regret theory and the method of successive average (MSA) to study commuters' mode choice. The numerical results show that regret aversion is indeed a key parameter influencing the travelers' mode choice behavior. With the increasing of regret aversion, more travelers choose the cheaper mode, and less choose the other one.

Traffic Flow Allocation and Optimization Decision Based on Unblocked Reliability of Open Community

CUI Hong-jun, SUN Wan-ru, ZHU Min-qing, LI Xia

2022, 31(2):  8-14.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0036

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The opening of internal roads in residential areas can increase the density and accessibility of urban road network, and alleviate urban road congestion. In order to obtain a traffic assignment model suitable for an open community, a survey with questionnaire for travelers is conducted. It is found that the traveler mainly considers the two factors of travel time and time volatility. Based on this, the CONTRAM cost function is improved to obtain the generalized travel cost applicable to the opening of the community, which takes the influence of unblocked reliability on route choice into account. Combined with the traveler selection criterion after the opening of the community, the stochastic user optimal model (SUO)considering generalized travel cost is established, and the method of successive averages (MSA) algorithm is used to solve the model, so as to obtain more accurate traffic flow. Through investigation and analysis, suggestions for internal planning after the opening of the community are proposed from the aspects of cross-section of the open road, the radius and widening of the entrance and exit, and the traffic organization of the entrance and exit.

Coordinated Optimization of Push Production and Distribution Based on Improved Simulated Annealing Algorithm

HU Hui, LIU Fu-xin, WANG Yu-qin, FENG Zhi-yu, WANG Rui

2022, 31(2):  15-22.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0037

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In order to reduce the cost and the waste of production resources caused by uncoordinated production and distribution, an optimization model of distribution considering push production scheduling is established. Aiming at the disadvantage that the conventional simulated annealing algorithm is prone to fall into the local optimum under the influence of random factors, an improved simulated annealing algorithm with tempering and slow cooling operation is designed. This improved algorithm is used to solve the model and determine the reasonable vehicle distribution route and supplies production plan. The contrast experimental results show that compared with the single distribution optimization model, the proposed model considering the push production scheduling can effectively reduce the material retention time caused by the premature production and the delivery delay cost caused by the late production. Compared with the standard simulated annealing algorithm, the improved algorithm can find a better solution, the standard deviation of the calculated results is reduced by 93.42%, showing better stability. And the improved simulated annealing algorithm has lower deviation rate and higher quality in the low-frequency calculation, and the average deviation rate is within 0.5%.

Probabilistic Dual Hesitant Fuzzy Multi-attribute Decision Making Method Based on Entropy and Correlation Coefficient

SU Bing-jie, LU Fang-yuan, ZHU Feng

2022, 31(2):  23-28.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0038

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A multi-attribute decision making method based on entropy and correlation coefficient is proposed for multi-attribute decision making with completely unknown attribute weights under probabilistic dual hesitant fuzzy environment. First, the axiomatic definition and formula of probabilistic dual hesitant fuzzy entropy are defined. Then, based on the feature information set and entropy measure of probabilistic dual hesitant fuzzy set, the correlation coefficient of probabilistic dual hesitant fuzzy set is defined. Finally, the multi-attribute decision-making model is constructed based on the entropy and correlation coefficient of the probabilistic dual hesitant fuzzy set. And the validity and rationality of the model are verified by an example.

Vehicle Routing Problem with Outsourced Services

GE Xian-long, SONG Chun-bing

2022, 31(2):  29-35.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0039

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Reducing the end distribution cost of retail enterprises is the key to controlling logistics costs, and the development of the sharing economy provides new ideas for this. Therefore, in view of the high cost of door-to-door delivery services for retail companies, a vehicle service strategy that considers outsourcing is proposed, and offline customers who are willing to make a single delivery are used as cooperative vehicles to cooperate with ordinary vehicles to complete the delivery of online customer orders. A mathematical model is established to minimize common vehicle routing cost, common vehicle use cost, time window penalty cost and cooperative vehicle compensation cost as the objective function, and a matching algorithm and a hybrid genetic operator simulated annealing algorithm are designed to solve the model. Finally, an example is given to verify and analyze the proposed algorithm.

Earthquake Emergency Material Transportation Decision Making Problem Based on the Improved VIKOR Method

DING Xue-feng, ZHONG Jun-hui

2022, 31(2):  36-41.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0040

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The rational selection of emergency relief materials for earthquake disaster has a very important impact on reducing casualties and reducing the loss of property of the victims. To solve the earthquake emergency material transportation decision-making problem under unknown weights of attributes circumstance, an improved VIKOR method which combines with the Pythagorean fuzzy uncertain linguistic variables (PFULVs) and prospect theory, called PFUL-PT-VIKOR method, is proposed. Firstly, the Pythagorean fuzzy uncertain language is applied to describe and aggregate the expert's perception information of earthquake emergency materials transportation schemes considering the influence of multiple attributes. And then, the weights of attributes are calculated by the subjective and objective fusion method. After that, based on the prospect theory, an improved VIKOR method is introduced to ranking the emergency material transporting solutions. Finally, an illustrate example is given to verify the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed PFUL-PT-VIKOR model is helpful to enhance the knowledge representation ability of decision-makers on the information perception of uncertain emergency situations, solve the problem that attribute weighting is too subjective or too dependent on samples, and break through the mindset that the implicit psychological behavior of emergency decision-makers is difficult to quantitatively apply, which enhance the practical applicability of model and provide decision support for the reasonable transportation scheme of earthquake emergency materials.

Hybrid Heuristic Algorithm for the Vehicle Routing Problem with Multiple Deliverymen

SU Xin-xin, WANG Hong-wei, QIN Hu, WANG Kai

2022, 31(2):  42-47.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0041

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To solve the vehicle routing problem with time windows and multiple deliverymen, we adopt a hybrid heuristic algorithm, which is characterized by the hybridization of the integer programming recombination, the local search (LS) algorithm and the simulated annealing (SA) algorithm. In the proposed algorithm, the integer programming recombination is capable of providing better solutions for further improvement, and LS and SA make a good balance between exploration and exploitation. Computational results indicate the proposed algorithm is more effective than CPLEX and the tabu search algorithm.

Evolutionary Game Equilibrium of Earthquake Insurance Market in China ——An analysis of government pre-disaster subsidy and post-disaster relief

LI Jia-hao, WANG Guo-jun

2022, 31(2):  48-53.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0042

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The funding arrangements for responding to earthquake risks in China can be divided into pre-disaster preventive nature and post-disaster payout nature according to ex-ante and ex-post. How should the government allocate disaster relief funds under a certain unanticipated budget? What are the implications for earthquake insurance market equilibrium? This paper constructs a three-way evolutionary game model and finds that moderate post-disaster relief by the government can ensure both efficiency and equity, while excessive post-disaster relief will raise residents' disaster relief expectations in the long run and inhibit the formation and improvement of the commercial earthquake insurance market. Meanwhile, guiding and improving social risk management awareness and risk perception are also key to improving the efficiency of earthquake insurance market.

Analysis of the Evolution of Strategy Choice of Green Product Retail Enterprises and Market Consumers

ZHANG Hao, WANG Ming-yue, SHI Wen-qiang

2022, 31(2):  54-61.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0043

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The combination of online and offline marketing mode effectively alleviates the problems of poor circulation channels and single marketing mode, thus promoting the consumption of green products. On the basis of relevant assumptions, the dynamic evolution process of the game subjects is reproduced by constructing the evolutionary game model of green product retail enterprises and consumers. It shows that there are two possible equilibrium states in the evolutionary game system between retail enterprises and consumers of the green product O2O model: O {maintaining the traditional marketing strategy, using the traditional strategy to purchase products} and C {building the online marketing strategy, using the online strategy to purchase products}. The evolution of evolutionary game system is disturbed by 9 factors, which affect the profit, cost and potential risk loss of the players. On the basis of theoretical deduction, numerical simulation is carried out with A retail enterprises as samples, which verifies the correctness of theoretical deduction, and gives the affect intensity of the above factors.

Green Supply Chain Decision Making and Coordination Considering Big Data Marketing and Risk Avoidance

WU Yu-ping, SHUI Yuan-song, YUAN Bai-yun, WANG Xiao-mei

2022, 31(2):  62-69.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0044

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The paper establishes a game model that considers the big data marketing and the retailer's risk attitude, and makes a comparative analysis of green supply chain pricing, product greenness and profit. It finds that supply chain overall expected and product greenness are higher in the model of considering big data marketing, and the big data marketing efficiency factor has a positive effect on the increase in product greenness, whether it is centralized scenario, decentralized scenario with the risk-neutral retailer and manufacturer or decentralized scenario with risk-neutral manufacturer and risk-averse retailer. When the retailer and manufacturer are both risk neutral, two part tariff contract can effectively coordinate overall supply chain profits and achieve Pareto improvement when certain conditions are met. When only the retailer is risk averse, the risk-averse behavior of the retailer can reduce its investment of big data, and the two part tariff contract can also achieve the Pareto improvement of the overall supply chain expected profit.

Manufacturer Encroachment and Order Timing Strategy with Promotion and Extended Warranty Services

LIU Zhen, JING You-guo, SHEN Shi-yao

2022, 31(2):  70-76.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0045

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Considering the two-echelon supply chain consisting of a manufacturer and retailer, on the one hand, the manufacturer considers whether to open up the e-commerce market and establish direct channel to compete with retailer. On the other hand, the manufacturer carries out promotional activities to stimulate market demand and provide extended warranty services to all consumers. For the two cases of sequential ordering and simultaneous ordering, the optimal strategies of the manufacturer under different entry cost are described, and the manufacturer encroachment strategy on retailers' order decisions and profitability are analyzed. The research shows that channel encroachment can improve the profit of manufacturer when the threshold condition of entry cost is satisfied. Ordering at the same time will reduce manufacturer's encroachment motivation and retailer's profit. When the price sensitive coefficient and promotion cost coefficient meet the relevant constraints, the retailer can gain more profits from the manufacturer encroachment, and can achieve win-win with the manufacturer. Regardless of order timing, the manufacture encroachment will always improve the level of promotion efforts and the price of extended warranty services.

System Resilience Measurement Based on the Reliability Resilience Indices

DUI Hong-yan, CHEN Shuan-shuan, MA Jing, CHEN Li-wei, LIU Yu-min

2022, 31(2):  77-84.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0046

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In this paper, the problem of system resilience is studied based on the reliability resilience indices. Firstly, the reliability resilience indices of different nodes and edges are investigated. Moreover, the relationship between nodes resilience and edges resilience is considered. The influence of the relationship between nodes resilience and edges resilience on system resilience is analyzed. A resilience measurement model is established to reflect the changes of the hierarchical network topology. In the verification link of the resilience measurement method, a hierarchical transportation system is introduced. According to the resilience measurement method, the node resilience and edge resilience in the layered transportation system are analyzed. In addition, it is found that the overall resilience of the layered transportation system is average. Any small disturbance or failure may cause the traffic system to be congested or paralyzed.

A Reliability Solution Method of Tree System Considering the Failure Criterion of Consecutive k-out-of-n

YANG Ao, CUI Li-rong

2022, 31(2):  85-91.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0047

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Tree network system is common in pipeline transportation and network communication. It is very important to evaluate its reliability for system design and optimization. For a tree redundant system, under the k-out-of-n failure criterion, the reliability solution method of tree system is studied by using the finite Markov embedding method and its deformation. In this paper, a tree system modeling is defined, and the tree system representation method based on the three parameters of layer parameters, layer node vector and parent-child node matrix is proposed. The reliability solution method under the failure criterion of consecutive k-out-of-n in tree system of deformation finite Markov embedding method is studied. Three numerical examples are given and the operation complexity of the algorithm is analyzed. Finally, this paper compares and discusses the reliability solution methods of the tree system based on the probability generating function method under the k-out-of-n criterion, and considers that the algorithm in this paper has a wider application range and higher efficiency for the system reliability solution under the failure criterion of consecutive k-out-of-n in tree redundant system.

Deep Learning-Based Determination Method for Membership Degree in Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets

ZHAO Narias, KONG Rong, GAO Huan

2022, 31(2):  92-98.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0048

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The determination of the membership, non-membership, and hesitation degrees is an important issue in intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFS) research since it can directly influence the extendibility and application of relevant researches. However, there are many limitations in existing methods for determining the membership degree in IFS, such as subjectivity and inconsistency of standards. Most experiments are based on simulated data and are unsuitable for practical data. Aimed at the above problems and large-scale unstructured data, a method for determining membership, non-membership and hesitation in IFS based on deep learning is proposed. In this work, a Convolutional Neural Network and Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-LSTM) model is constructed based on text, and it can automatically calculate the membership, non-membership and hesitation degrees of the text after the training process. Besides, the new method can be applied to other fields by modeling and training. The proposed method overcomes the technical and thinking limitations of traditional methods, expands the research ideas of IFS, and provides possibilities for its practical application.

Volatility Prediction Based on Expectile and Realized GARCH Model

GAO Lei-fu , LI Wei-mei

2022, 31(2):  99-103.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0049

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The Realized GARCH model is one of the classical models to predict the volatility, and the expectile based on minimizing asymmetric quadratic loss function is more sensitive to the tail distribution of return rate. We establish Expectile-Realized GARCHmodel based on Realized GARCH and expectile. We model and analyze the high frequency return rate of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index,and compare the volatility prediction results under different models. It is found that the Expectile-Realized GARCHmodel is better than Realized GARCHmodel in forecasting volatility. When the risk level is 95%, the predictive volatility is the best.

A Target-based Approach for Selecting New Product Development Alternatives Considering Hybrid Information Representations and Interacting Attributes

ZHANG Xin-wei, LI Jing, FENG Qiong, TONG Shu-rong

2022, 31(2):  104-110.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0050

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When targets are integrated into selection of new product development alternatives, degree of target achievement of different alternatives can be considered, which is useful to select the most competitive one. Considering hybrid information representations and interacting attributes, an approach based on target-oriented decision analysis (TODA) and k-order additive fuzzy measures is proposed to select new product development alternatives. First, in the case of hybrid information representations of attributes and their targets, such as the forms of interval value, fuzzy number, linguistic value, these forms are transformed into probability density functions. By taking three kinds of preferences on attributes into consideration, probability of target achievement is then calculated based on TODA. Second, with initial preferences of the decision maker, such as sign and strength of interactions among attributes, k-order additive fuzzy measures are identified based on the minimum variance approach. Each attribute's probability of target achievement is then aggregated through Choquet integral, which is used to rank and select alternatives. Finally, the approach is validated through selecting competitive test equipment for large scale integrated circuits.

Economic Design of Variable Sampling Interval and Sample Size EWMA Control Chart under Non-normal Distributions

XUE Li, LI Cong-kai, JIA Yuan-zhong

2022, 31(2):  111-118.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0051

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To reduce the costs of process control and improve the monitoring efficiency of control chart, the economic design of exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart with variable sampling intervals and sample size (VSSI) for monitoring non-normal data is proposed. Firstly, using Burr distribution to approximate various non-normal distributions, EWMA control chart with variable sampling intervals and sample size is proposed. Secondly, economic model of VSSI EWMA control chart under non-normal distributions was developed, the optimal design parameter combination of the control chart is obtained, such that the total expected cost is minimized. Thirdly, the genetic algorithms (GA) will be used to search for the optimal values of parameters of the VSSI EWMA chart for non-normal data, and an example is provided to illustrate influence relationship between the cost parameters of the control chart and the design parameters. Finally, through the optimality analysis, it is concluded that the economy of the established VSS Inon-normal EWMA control chart is better than that of VSI and VSS non-normal EWMA control chart.

Application Research

Research on the Information Matching Efficiency of Bidding Mechanism Under Information Asymmetry

CAI Zu-guo, LIU Lu, FAN Li-li

2022, 31(2):  119-125.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0052

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Focusing on the phenomenon that consumers rely on the keyword retrieval of search engine platform to make purchase decision, this paper introduces consumer search behavior into the bidding mechanism of search engine platform and construct a game model with search engine platform, seller and consumer, to investigate the information matching efficiency of the bidding mechanism of search engine platform under information asymmetry. Based on that, we investigate the theoretical mechanism of product quality as a signal to improve the information matching efficiency of bidding mechanism. Our research findings show that, under information asymmetry and without the signal of product quality, the equilibrium of the bidding mechanism fails to match the purchase decisions of consumers at all, resulting in double losses of consumer welfare due to the adverse selection of sellers. After the signal of product quality is implanted, the search engine platform can improve the matching degree between the equilibrium of the bidding mechanism and the consumer purchase decisions by identifying the product quality signal of sellers, and then partially improve the information matching efficiency of the bidding mechanism.

Research on the Reform of Interconnection Settlement Regulations between Internet Backbone to Promote Network Investment

TANG Qi-ming, LI Mei-juan

2022, 31(2):  126-132.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0053

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The analysis results of this paper show that whether the upstream market is monopolized or there are the competitions of multiple backbone networks, the network investment amount and the social welfare under the interconnectionless settlement regulation are greater than that under the Internet settlement regulation. In order to promote the network investment in the backbone network market, this paper proposes that the regulating role of market mechanism in the interconnection settlement should be fully utilized. At the same time, the competition mechanism should be introduced in the upstream market to allow new competitors to participate in the competition.

Evaluation of Coordination of Regional Logistics Development in Beibu Gulf Based on Rough Set Theory

LI Bo-min, WENG Shi-zhou, LV Yue-jin

2022, 31(2):  133-140.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0054

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By establishing the probability dominance relationship model based on the incomplete ordered decision system, we put forward the concept of coordination degree between condition attributes and decision attributes set. This method is used to evaluate the adaptability and coordination between logistics development and economic development in various regions of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Circle, and the results show that Guilin, Wuzhou, Yulin, Liuzhou, Nanning, Beihai have the backward state in logistics development, Fangchenggang and Guigang have the leading state in logistics development and the rest of the cities have relative coordination state. The relevant conclusions can provide some advice to the government over the balance of economy and logistics development.

Performance Evaluation Method and Application of New R&D Institutions Considering Double Reference Points and Choquet Integral

JIANG Lin, ZHU Jian-jun

2022, 31(2):  141-147.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0055

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Aiming at the performance problems of new R&D institutions, such as the uncertainty of performance evaluation value, the correlation between indicators, the diversification of investors with risk preference, and the unknown weight of indicator set, a performance evaluation method based on double reference points and Choquet integral is proposed. Firstly, combined with the characteristics of new R&D institutions, the performance evaluation index system is constructed; secondly, the double reference points of peers and expectations are designed based on the cumulative prospect theory; then, the direct correlation matrix between the indexes is constructed, and the weight of the index set is optimized according to the k-additive fuzzy measure and the Banzhaf value of the average marginal contribution, which is substituted into the Choquet integral method and the reference point weight formula to calculate the comprehensive performance evaluation value of each new R&D institution, so as to realize the organization ranking and problem analysis. The method considers the characteristics of new R&D institutions, data uncertainty, index relevance, risk preference, weight unknown and other factors, which is more in line with the actual situation. The case verifies the effectiveness and practicability of the method.

Equipment Procurement Supply Chain Quality Performance Evaluation Based on Improved EAHP

HE Du-bo, HUANG Dong

2022, 31(2):  148-154.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0056

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The equipment procurement supply chain quality performance evaluation index system cannot truly reflect the actual quality status of the supply chain and the evaluation method is not reasonable. Therefore, based on the balanced scorecard model framework, the equipment procurement supply chain quality performance evaluation index system is established. An improved analytic hierarchy process (EAHP) is proposed to evaluate the quality performance of the supply chain. This method determines the initial expert weight by the closeness between the individual index weight vector and the group index weight vector, and introduces the modified parameter sequential relationship analysis method (G1) to modify the expert weight distribution in multiple rounds, which overcomes the traditional EAHP in group decision. The calculation example shows that this method can effectively gather group decision-making information and reduce the adverse effects caused by the decision information with large deviation.

Research on the Pricing and Coordination of Supply Chain Heterogeneous Products under the Dual Influence of Carbon Transfer and Consumers' Low Carbon Preference

SUN Li-cheng, YING Meng-huang, ZHANG Ji-jian

2022, 31(2):  155-161.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0057

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Accurately refining the impact of carbon transfer and consumer low-carbon preference on pricing ofheterogeneous products in the supply chain not only helps optimize the carbon emissions transfer behavior among supply chain enterprises, but also helps coordinate the pricing behavior of supply chain entities. This paper builds a supplier-led Stackelberg game model and incorporates carbon emissions transfer and consumer low carbon preference among supply chain firms into the model, analyzing the impact of carbon transfer and consumer low carbon preference supply on the chain-heterogeneous product sales price and wholesale pricein a decentralized and concentrated scenario. The Shapley value is used to coordinate the supply chain for the overall profit loss of the supply chain under the decentralized scenario. The research shows that the carbon emission transfer between supply chain enterprises will positively affect the wholesale price of common products, but for low-carbon products, the wholesale price will decline first and then rise; the existence of carbon emissions transfer between supply chain enterprises will make supply chain products The sales price first decreases and then increases, among which the sales price of common products changes more. The influence of consumers' low carbon preference on the pricing of supply chain products is related to the amount of carbon transfer. The low carbon product pricing is sensitive to consumers' low carbon preference. In general products, when carbon transfer and consumer low carbon preferences reach a certain value, low carbon products will have a market run effect on ordinary products.

Economic Impact of Climate on Anhui Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry: Based on Economic Climate Model

TAI Lei-lei, FENG Zhi-pei, WANG Shan

2022, 31(2):  162-165.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0058

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By considering the climate and economic and social factors, considering and analyzing the climate factors and functions synthetically, the “economic climate” model is constructed, and the influence degree of climate factors on the traditional Chinese medicine industry in Anhui Province is analyzed and obtained. The BP neural network model is used to analyze the data and predict the impact of meteorological factors on the traditional Chinese medicine industry. Through the analysis of the characteristics and direction of climate change in Anhui Province, the influence degree of climate factors on traditional Chinese medicine industry is determined, which provides certain data analysis support for the development of traditional Chinese medicine industry, provides methods and data basis for targeted management of traditional Chinese medicine industry, and has certain theoretical and practical significance for reducing the negative effects of severe meteorological disasters on the production of traditional Chinese medicine.

Risk Dependence Structure, Contagion Network and Spillover Effect among Commercial Banks

LIU Chao, QIAN Cun

2022, 31(2):  166-172.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0059

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To reveal the risk spillover effect among commercial banks in China more scientifically, the research idea of ‘dependent structure-contagion network-risk measurement' is proposed, and the risk spillover effect of 14 commercial banks in China from 2008 to 2018 is systematically analyzed by using the bayesian network and the R-Vine-Copula-CAViaR-CoVaR model. The empirical study shows that the risk-dependent structure of banks has the characteristics of aggregation and distribution of state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock commercial banks respectively, and urban commercial banks are distributed around joint-stock commercial banks, among which joint-stock commercial banks play a pivotal role in connection. It is found that the ability of managing, resisting and spreading risks of state-owned commercial banks is greater than that of joint-stock commercial banks. There is a two-way spillover effect between banks and asymmetry, in which the size of risk spillover of joint-stock banks is larger than that of urban commercial banks than that of state-owned commercial banks, and there is a negative spillover effect between banks.

Portfolio Optimization with Bankruptcy Control: A Two Period MiniMax Model

KANG Zhi-lin, WANG Zhi-huan

2022, 31(2):  173-177.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0060

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Using absolute deviation function as the risk measure, this paper considers the portfolio selection problem based on the minimax criterion when shorting is not allowed. To avoid occurrence of bankruptcy in the whole investment horizon, a risk control constraint is imposed on the proposed model at the same time. By applying dynamic programming and Lagrange multiplier approach, the explicit expression of the optimal portfolio strategy is presented. The proposed strategy can provide decisions basis for investors who need to manage the assets and control bankruptcy.

Research on the Choice of Financing Mode Considering Implicit Equity in E-Commerce Supply Chain Finance

HOU Jian, BAI Xue-bin, HUA Lian-lian

2022, 31(2):  178-183.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0061

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There are twofinancing modes in the supply chain finance system with e-commerce platform, namely bank financing mode and e-commerce platform financing mode. Considering the implicit equity, the financing mode choice of the capital-constrained manufacturer in the system is studied. This paper constructs a financing model of two-stage supply chain withan e-commerce platform as the core enterprise and a capital-constrained upstream manufacturer, uses the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) to quantify the implicit equity, and analyzes the income of the manufacturer and the e-commerce platform under the two financing modes based on Stackelberg game. The research shows thatthe bank interest rate is the main factor of affecting the choice of the manufacturer's financing mode. Furthermore, ifthe capital-constrained manufacturer chooses to finance from bank, whether or not the e-commerce platform considers the implicit equity will not affect its'own income; ifthe capital-constrained manufacturer chooses to financefrom the e-commerce platform, consideringthe implicit equity, the e-commerce platform will have better income.

Influence of Investor Sentiment on the Return Rate of Sci-Tech Innovation Board Based on Text Mining Perspective

GAO Yang, SHEN Yi-ran, XU Jia-xi

2022, 31(2):  184-190.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0062

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Based on the Sci-Tech innovation board listed stocks, this paper focuses on the effect of investor sentiment on the market return before and during the COVID-19. First, we classify the sentiment tendency using daily stock comments in the Eastmoney bar from December of 2019 to March of 2020 using Bi-LSTM deep learning technology and then establish the investor sentiment index. By constructing the two-way fixed effects simultaneous equations model, this paper adopts the 2SLS estimator to investigate the impact of investor sentiment on the return of the Sci-Tech innovation board. Then we verify the difference of this impact between normal market state period and the COVID-19 period. The empirical results and robustness check both reveal that investor sentiment has a significant positive effect on the return, and this positive effect is significantly transmitted through the trading volume at the 1% significance level. The influence of investor sentiment on the market return remains robust in both the normal period and the COVID-19 period. Furthermore, investor sentiment plays a more important role during the outbreak of COVID-19. The results are of important significance not only for the securities market regulators in China to improve the trading mechanism of Sci-Tech innovation board, but also for the small and medium-sized investors to optimize their investment strategy.

Measurement of Conversion Rate of Local Government Implicit Debt and Debt Risk Identification

SU Zhen-xing, HU Wen-xiu, ZHANG Wei-guo

2022, 31(2):  191-197.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0063

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The implicit debt of local government has become the potential inducement of systemic financial risk, but the proportion of implicit debt that requires direct responsibility of government finance is difficult to determine, which leads to the fact that debt risk cannot be accurately measured. This study constructs the KMV model, the ROA-based burden model and the market equilibrium model of credit debt. Focused on two main types of implicit debt, local state-owned enterprise debt and financing platform debt, the conversion rate of them into government financial burden is determined, and the local government debt risk is measured. The results show: between 2011~2018, the conversion rate of local state-owned enterprise debt into local government financial burden is between 5.03% and 9.13%, and the conversion rate of financing platform debt is between 60.29% and 82.31%. Local government implicit debt rose from 2.56 trillion yuan in 2011 to 12.2 trillion yuan in 2018, and the proportion rose from 24.5% to 43.4%. It indicates that implicit debt has become an important part of local government debt and the current regulations of local debt have not effectively stopped the implicit debt expansion. The scale of local government debt is expanding year by year, and the probability of default rose from 0 to 3.07%, meaning that the risk has risen from non-default risk to medium risk range. Furthermore, the result also shows that there are obvious regional characteristics of government debt risk.

Duration Estimation and Financing Optimization of Independent Projects

WANG Jian-wen, XIA Rong-rong

2022, 31(2):  198-204.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0064

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The degree of matching between project investment and financing is not only related to the cost of project capital, but also reflects the hedging of interest rate risk of the project. Based on the concept of bond duration, this paper proposes the concept and calculation method of project duration and financing structure duration. Taking the investment and financing of a specific project as a case study, this paper carries on the investment and financing duration matching, each stage cash flow matching evaluation to the bond financing scheme drawn up by the case company for the independent project, and finds the financing cost optimization space from the market interest rate curve, and finds the optimized financing scheme from the investment and financing duration difference and the investment and financing cash flow difference. This concludes that the matching of project duration and financing structure duration is an important means to reduce the interest rate risk of the project;and the financing structure should be selected by synthesizing the duration of financing structure and the duration of project, and the size of cash flow.

Asian Option Pricing Formulas Based on the Uncertain Exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Model with Floating Interest Rate

LIU Zhao-peng

2022, 31(2):  205-208.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0065

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Uncertain finance is an application of uncertainty theory in the field of modern finance and plays a more and more important role in solving the financial problems. As an important economic indicator, interest rate is always affected by some uncertain factors. It is necessary to consider the floating interest rate when we investigate the option pricing. This paper proposes a new uncertain exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck stock model with floating interest rate, where interest rate is assumed to be the uncertain mean-reverting model. Subsequently, the Asian call option pricing formulas and put option pricing formulas are derived via the α-path method. Besides, some numerical algorithms are designed to compute the prices of these options and some numerical examples are performed.

Management Science

Multi-interest Balance Strategy of Smart Grid Guided by Retailers

LI Jun-xiang, WANG Yu-qian, SUN Quan, DANG Ya-zheng, GAO Yan

2022, 31(2):  209-215.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0066

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This paper proposes a smart grid system operation strategy dominated by power retailers. The power retailers output users' real-time electricity price according to the electricity supply price and generation capacity with the goal of maximizing revenue. On the power supply side, the online order of different types of power suppliers is optimized, and the robustness analysis of the uncertain output of wind power photovoltaic energy is considered to optimize the interests of power suppliers on the basis of maintaining a balance between supply and demand. On the demand side, users are classified according to the scale of power consumption, secondary classification is carried out according to the importance of power supply, and particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to solve the optimal power consumption of users. The simulation results show that the power retailers maintain the balance of interests of all parties in the power system, which has potential benefits for both suppliers and users.

How Competition among Online Shopping Platforms Affects Their Quality Integrity Supervision in Advertising Profit Model

ZHAO Hong-xia, YANG Jiao-ping, RONG Shuai

2022, 31(2):  216-223.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0067

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The counterfeit and shoddy in the online shopping market is widely concerned by the society at present. As the core of the online shopping market, online shopping platform enterprises should undertake some quality integrity supervision obligations. In present literature online shopping platforms in quality supervision have been explored. Based on this, the article explores the impact of competition between two online shopping platforms on their quality supervision when the advertising revenue is the main profit model of online shopping platforms. By establishing a dynamic game model based on the two-sided market theory we obtain the following research conclusions. With the increase of competition between online shopping platforms, or with the increase of advertising substitution between online shopping platforms, or with the increase of the number of online merchants registered on online shopping platforms, platform enterprises will increase their quality control efforts; With the increase of consumers' boredom with advertising, the quality control of platform enterprises shows an inverted U-shaped change trend.

Optimization of Reinforcement Scheme for Old Reinforced Concrete Factory Building

WU Qian, HUANG Tai-xing, SUN Min, WANG Li, WANG Hang

2022, 31(2):  224-230.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0068

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Current people choosing old industrial factory building structure reinforcement scheme is inefficient, and more one-sided in consideration.In order to fully and effectively solve the problem, through the consideration of safety, economy, feasibility and applicability, the influence factors, such as timeliness, from a case of reinforcement effect remarkable engineering standards, for 18 parameters of the comprehensive evaluation index,an optimization model of structural reinforcement scheme based on similar area and shape of spider web is established. In this model, the entropy weight method is used to determine the weight of 18 indicators, and the parameter values are normalized. Then, Python is used to calculate the similarity of spider web structure, and the source example that is most similar to the target example is retrieved. Finally, taking a project with remarkable structural reinforcement effect as an example, the model is proved to be effective in reducing subjective error and has strong practicability, and the structural reinforcement scheme of a steel rolling mill is optimized by using this model.

Crowdsourcing Logistics Service Quality Network Equilibrium Model with Penalty Policy

MENG Xiu-li, WU Yi-fan, LIU Bo

2022, 31(2):  231-239.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0069

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A crowdsourcing logistics service network equilibrium model is developed with three layers' network structure of service demanders, crowdsourcing platforms and service providers. The variational inequality is used to describe the equilibrium state considering the optimal behavior of each member of the crowdsourcing logistics service network, and the impact of fines imposed by crowdsourcing platforms on service providers with substandard service quality on the service network is considered. The result shows that the implementation of the penalty policy on the crowdsourcing platforms will prompt the service providers to improve their own service quality, and the service quality and profits of the crowdsourcing platforms will increase accordingly. However, blindly increasing the fine will reduce not only the profits of service providers, but also the service quality and profits of the crowdsourcing platforms. So an appropriate penalty interval should be chosen. When increasing the competition platform, the transaction volume, transaction price and the profits of the service providers will increase, but the profits of the original crowdsourcing platform will decrease. If the fines imposed by a certain platform are too high, the service quality of the platform will improve in the short term, but the profits will decrease, and the service quality of the original crowdsourcing platforms will decrease, and the profits will increase.