Table of Content

25 June 2021, Volume 30 Issue 6

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Logistics Scheduling with Two Transportation Modes

WANG Lei, BAI Qing-guo, REN Jian-feng

2021, 30(6):  1-5.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0172

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This paper studies an integrated production and distribution scheduling problem with two transportation modes. The jobs are first processed in a single machine, then delivered in batches to their customer. There are two transportation modes available: regular transportation and express transportation. The manufacturer needs to arrange process sequence of jobs, and decide transportation mode and departure time for every job, in order to minimize weighted time objective and transportation cost. We consider two objective functions in scheduling theory, analyze the problem complexity and give optimal algorithms to solve the problems .

Dynamic Stochastic Algorithm Based on Incomplete Data and Its Application

YI Ping-tao, DONG Qian-kun, LI Wei-wei

2021, 30(6):  6-11.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0173

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To the dynamic evaluation problem with incomplete data, this paper proposes a dynamic stochastic algorithm based on incomplete data. Firstly, the missing data are classified into two types, the discrete missing data and the continuous missing data.According to their distribution in time dimension, the relative filling methods are proposed in this paper. Then, based on complete data, the winning probability matrix representing the relative performance among alternatives is calculated, combining with the stochastic simulation, from which the probability sort between the alternatives is induced. The algorithm avoids the absolute sort results among alternatives and has more advantages in explanations for real-world applications. Lastly, the algorithm is illustrated in an example in detail.


Research on Traffic Flow Equilibrium Based on Road Choice Behavior of New and Old Drivers

WANG Chao-fa, WANG Wen-long, CAI Xin

2021, 30(6):  12-18.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0174

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For the new driver brought by the explosive growth in the number of road traffic flow is balanced, classifying drivers and road is presented in this paper based on the analysis of the choice behavior. A decision tree method is applied to build the path choice behavior based on the new and old driver equilibrium model of traffic flow and through an actual case the sensitivity of main parameters is studied. The study finds: the road through the joint system, the speed of the distribution of traffic forecast and the driver's learning process factors such as the common affect driver ratio; when a certain road reaches equilibrium, the sensitivity of traffic flow to the proportion of drivers is affected by the difference of road conditions. Drivers differ in driving experience, road familiarity and learning ability, but this difference only exists in the perception of traffic information. This research is helpful to deepen the understanding of the law of urban traffic flow change, and has a positive theoretical value and practical significance for the development of effective traffic control measures.

Warranty Policy Design Considering Condition-based Maintenance

DAI Anshu, LI Ting, ZHANG Shu-hua, HE Zhen, HE Shu-guang

2021, 30(6):  19-25.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0175

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With the increasing homogeneity of products, attractive warranty has become a useful tool for enhancing brand image, stimulating demand and gathering market feedback. Firstly, the Wiener process associated with condition-based maintenance is established to model the performance degradation. Then we consider the effects of product price, warranty length and pro-rata proportion on demand function, and determine the optimal warranty length and pro-rata proportion with an aim to maximize the supplier's expected profit. Through data experiments under two conditions, namely with and without condition-based maintenance, the total profits under the two conditions are compared. Additionally, we investigate the impact of the speed of the product's deterioration process, cost parameters and product price on the supplier's profit. The results show that providing warranty policy incorporating condition-based maintenance contributes to maintaining product reliability at a relatively high level, but also effectively improving the supplier's profit.

Yard Crane Scheduling and Storage Space Allocation Considering Container Storage, Retrieval, and Pre-marshalling

FAN Hou-ming, KONG Liang, YUE Li-jun

2021, 30(6):  26-34.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0176

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The efficiency of the outbound container storage allocation and yard crane scheduling has an important impact on terminal yard operation. In order to improve the yard wndes uneertain envivonment, a bi-level programming model is proposed considering the relationship between the outbound container stacking and loading work. The upper level model whose object is to minimize the working time of the loading and stacking operation aims to find a plan of the outbound containers storage allocation. According to the plan, the lower level model, serving upper level model, improves the pre-marshalling work first and then the stacking work. The final result is obtained through continuous balance between the loading and stacking work. To solve the model, Imrsoved gebetuc sunykaeed abbeakubg akgirutgn is designed. Through numerical experiments, the validity of the model and IGSAA is verified. The research is conducive to improving the efficiency of yard operations.

Portfolio Optimization Based on Dynamic Adjustment Copula-Nonlinear Quantile Regression

CHI Guo-tai, LI Zhe

2021, 30(6):  35-41.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0177

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In order to optimize the asset portfolio scheme, considering the characteristics of single asset distribution such as asymmetry, heteroscedasticity, leptokurtosis and fat-tail, and the time-varying nonlinear correlation between assets, the Copula-nonlinear quantile regression model is established. The contributions are as follows. Firstly, the objective function is established by constructing the VaR ratio function that considers the return rate and the effect of dynamic loss aversion, which changes the traditional models measuring the risk using the standard deviation of the excess return, while the empirical research pays more attention to the loss of assets rather than all risks, and failure to consider the lack of investor asymmetry in preferences for gains and losses. Secondly, the quantile regression model based on the support vector machine model is established, and expression of the edge distribution function is obtained, which solves the problem with which that the traditional model can't deal well with asymmetry and nonlinearity and depends on the distribution hypothesis. Thirdly, a mixture Copula function is established, which can effectively capture the tail correlation and asymmetry in the financial market. Fourthly, an overall risk assessment model based on the non-linear superposition of assets risk is established, which makes up for the existing risk assessment model without considering the correlation between assets, and the total risk of the assets is the simple linear addition of the individual asset. Through comparative analysis, it is found that the prediction performance of the model established in this paper is higher than that of other models. The model can have higher VaR ratio value.

Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic TOPSIS Decision Making Method Based on Multi-objective Attribute Weight Optimization

WU Peng, WU Qun, ZHOU Li-gang, CHEN Hua-you

2021, 30(6):  42-47.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0178

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Hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set (HFLTS)as an useful information expression form can well reflect qualitative and hesitant decision-making information of people. Traditional distance measures may cause loss of information of hesitant fuzzy linguistic. Therefore, this paper first proposes a new distance measure between HFLTSs and discusses some relevant properties. Then, for hesitant fuzzy linguistic multi-attribute decision-making with unknow attribute weights, aiming at the two aspects of alternative and attribute, the multi-objective optimization attribute weight determination model is proposed to obtain the weights of attributes. Furthermore, an improved TOPSIS method is developed based on the multi-objective weight optimization model and the new distance measure. In the end, a practical example is provided to verify the practicability and effectiveness of the proposed method, sensitive and comparative analysis are provided as well.

Research on Decision-making for Joint Distribution of Emergency Materials

HUANG Hui, LIANG Xing, LI Meng-xiang, ZHANG Juan

2021, 30(6):  48-54.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0179

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The efficient delivery of relief supplies is one of the key activities of emergency logistics. From the perspective of military-civilian integration, this article designs a scientific and reasonable vehicle allocation plan and transportation route based on the characteristics of military and civilian transportation vehicles. In addition, factors such as the irrational psychology of the affected people and impact of road conditions on the speed of different vehicles will be considered. In a word, the paper constructs an “allocation-transportation” integrated decision-making model based on vehicle allocation fairness and emergency dispatching timeliness. And a NSGA-II algorithm is improved to solve the problem. Finally, an example is used to verify the effectiveness and rationality of the algorithm. By adjusting the number of military and civilian transport vehicles, the optimal ratio of military and local vehicles in the emergency rescue process is found, which provides reference for vehicle dispatching decisions of distribution centers after the disaster.


Vertical Integration of Shipping Supply Chain Under Service Competition

LIU Jia-guo, XU Wen-li, SUN Rui

2021, 30(6):  55-62.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0180

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Under port service competition, two parallel three-tier shipping supply chains, each of which is composed of a port, a carrier and a freight forwarder, are constructed to study the carrier's vertical integration decision and identify the feasible conditions and equilibrium characteristics of different integration strategies combining with the shipper's benefit. We find that the rival chain's integration strategy only has an impact on whether the carrier adopt integration or not, but makes no difference on its specific integration selection. Carrier's forward integration depends on the degree of port service competition , while the forward backward integration depends on the port service cost coefficient. Under the different integration strategies of the rival chain, there exists an optimal condition where carrier choosing backward integration can maximize its profit meanwhile achieve the shipper's benefit expectations.


Interval-valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multi-attribute Decision Making Based on New Entropy and Scoring Function

YANG Min, ZHANG Shi-bin, ZHANG Hang

2021, 30(6):  63-68.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0181

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The two most critical points in multi-attribute decision making problems are the determination of attribute weights, and the sort of interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy numbers so as to obtain the final decision result. This paper is aimed at researching multi-attribute decision making in which attribute weights are completely unknown. The problem of interval intuitionistic fuzzy entropy is studied and the limitation of most existing score function is analyzed. Then the fuzzy entropy and the score function considering both uncertainty and hesitation are proposed. Finally, an example is given to verify the validity and rationality of the studied entropy and score function in the application of multi-attribute decision making.


Recycling and Pricing Decisions for Closed-loop Supply Chain Considering Corporate Social Responsibility Investment under Government's Subsidy

YAO Feng-min, YAN Ying-luo, LIU shan, TENG Chun-xian

2021, 30(6):  69-76.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0182

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We research the reverse recycling channel selection and pricing decision of closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) with a dominant retailer under the consideration of government's recycling subsidy and retailer's CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility) investment. The effect of government's recycling subsidy mechanism and retailer's CSR investment on the pricing of new products and recycling of waste products are analyzed under three different recycling channel structures. It shows that under any recycling mode, government's recycling subsidy can not only effectively reduce the wholesale and retail price of new products and enhance the recycling enthusiasm of all collectors for recycling waste products, but also increase the profits of CLSC members and whole system. The CSR investment of retailer is always conducive to expanding the market demand for new products and improving the recycling rate of waste products. From the perspective of increasing the CSR investment level of retailer and improving the overall performance of CLSC, the government's recycling subsidy mechanism has the best effect when the manufacturer is responsible for the recycling of waste products.

QUALIFLEX and LINMAP-based Approach for Multi-attribute Decision Making Problems with Simplified Neutrosophic Hesitant Fuzzy Sets

YU Qian, LIAO Ya, CAO Jun, HOU Fu-jun

2021, 30(6):  77-82.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0183

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QUALIFLEX (Qualitative Flexible Multiple Criteria Method) is a useful outranking method for multiple attribute decision analysis. The SNHFS-QUALIFLEX approach is proposed for solving multiple attribute decision making (MADM) problems where the evaluation values are in the form of simplified neutrosophic hesitant fuzzy sets (SNHFS). And considering the situation that the information of attributes is uncertain, we extend LINMAP method to determine the attributes'weights based on the defined signed distance. Furthermore, a SNHFS-QUALIFLEX approach is applied to supplier selection to validate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Evolutionary Game Analysis of Cross-organizational Knowledge Sharing Behavior in Enterprise Innovation Network

ZHOU Zhi-gang, RUAN Li-juan, DING Qiu-kai

2021, 30(6):  83-90.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0184

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Cross-organizational knowledge sharing in enterprise innovation network in the new period is an important way to effectively utilize knowledge resources among organizations. By constructing an evolutionary game model of cross-organizational knowledge sharing between subject and object organizations under the condition of bounded rationality and knowledge potential, this paper studies and analyzes the strategic choice of cross-organizational knowledge sharing between the two parties in the innovation network. The results show that cooperation willingness, cooperation benefit distribution, knowledge stock and knowledge structure difference, knowledge protection and social connection are all important factors affecting cooperation efficiency. Among them, the optimal scope of benefit distribution, the knowledge stock and structure of subject and object organizations, and the intensity of knowledge protection play a key role in the success of cross-organizational knowledge sharing cooperation in enterprise innovation network.

Game Analysis of Surplus Allocation of Joint Purchasing Cooperation Considering Alliance Structure

YANG Jie, LAI Li-bang

2021, 30(6):  91-95.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0185

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The essence of cooperative surplus allocation in joint purchasing is the negotiation process between the maximum alliance surplus values and the minimum expected values. The current research on surplus distribution in joint purchasing mainly based on players' statuses is the same, which ignores the significant effect of the alliance structure. Based on the hierarchical structure of the alliance, we find that players can improve the bargaining power in the distribution negotiation if they take part in the bigger joint purchasing alliance by forming a small alliance in advance. By an example, it is shown that the cooperation surplus allocation in joint purchasing considering alliance structure is fairer and more reasonable than the allocation scheme that does not consider the alliance structure.

Game Analysis of Cooperation Mechanism between Farmers and E-commerce Enterprises of Agricultural productsfrom the Perspective of Relational Contract

LIU Xiao-li, YANG Hong

2021, 30(6):  96-102.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0186

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Based on the perspective of relationship contract and using evolutionary game theory, this paper constructs an evolutionary game model of cooperation between farmers and E-commerce enterprises of agricultural products under the characteristics of bounded rationality, and analyzes the evolution process, stability strategy and influencing factors of cooperation strategies, and the factors that affect the choice of cooperation strategies by Matlab simulation to verify the correctness of the game results. The results show that the cooperation strategy chosen by farmers and E-commerce enterprises of agricultural products is closely related to the input cost and the excess income realized by both parties. The initial state of the game, the cost of re-transaction, the benefits of unilateral non-cooperation and the penalty for breach of contract affect the evolutionary and stable results of the system. Therefore, to improve the cooperation mechanism between farmers and E-commerce enterprises of agricultural products, we need to build a reasonable interest distribution mechanism, good relationship governance mechanism, effective supervision and punishment mechanism and information sharing, communication and coordination mechanism.

Research on Evolutionary Game and Diffusion Mechanism of Responsible Innovation from the Perspective of Life Cycle

YANG Kun, WANG Wan, HU Bin

2021, 30(6):  103-110.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0187

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The negative externality of innovation has caused all circles to pay close attention to the implementation and diffusion of responsible innovation, and it is urgent to further clarify the mechanism of its development and diffusion in the whole life cycle in order to achieve a more comprehensive and full realization of the coordinated development of technology and society. Therefore, this paper constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model of government, enterprise and the public, and introduces the Lotka-Volterra model to explore the behavior strategies evolution and interaction mechanism of stakeholder in the life cycle of responsible innovation, as well as the influence of their different responsiveness means on the diffusion of responsible innovation. The research results show that in the initial, growth and mature internalization phases of the life cycle of responsible innovation, the government plays the role of “advocator”, “promoter” and “night watchman” respectively, and the initial promotion of responsible innovation affects its subsequent diffusion status. In the growth and mature internalization phases, high penalty, low governance cost and public participation have the frontage influence on responsible innovation of enterprise,while reasonable incentives will prevent enterprise from generating “deceptive subsidy”. The appropriate responsiveness measures of the government and public jointly promote responsible innovation from symbiosis to full diffusion, while the excessive promotion of government will lead to a decline in diffusion efficiency.

Application Research

Research on Government Regulation Strategy of Internet Food Safety on Platform Participation

CAO Yu, WANG Xian-bo, WAN Guang-yu

2021, 30(6):  111-117.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0188

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In view of the more serious food safety problems arising from the emerging Internet plus food business, this paper studies the optimal supervision strategy under the direct supervision of the government on network food safety, and the government's optimal indirect supervision strategy when the network platform participates in supervision. And it considers the impact of the network platform and food companies collusion on the efficiency of supervision. The results show that when the probability of food safety problems is found to be greater or the food safety problem has a greater impact on the government, the choice of direct supervision strategy will be better, but the increase of supervision costs will reduce the probability of direct government supervision, prompting the government to choose indirect regulatory strategy.Compared with the two strategies, the indirect supervision mode can more effectively inhibit the collusion between the platform and enterprise. In addition, the results also show that under the direct supervision strategy, increasing the punishment on food enterprises reduces the government's supervision intensity, so increasing punishment will not always improve the government's efficiency,but under the indirect supervision strategy, increasing the punishment on network platform will increase the supervision probability of the network platform, thereby improving the efficiency of the government.

Multiple Index Evaluation of Regional Green Economic Development Level Based on Prospect Theory

LI Qing-shui, LI Deng-feng, LI Hui, YU Gao-feng

2021, 30(6):  118-123.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0189

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Aiming at the problems of fuzzy and heterogeneity in the evaluation index of green economy development, a standardized information and multiple index evaluation method is proposed based on prospect theory. First, an evaluation index system of regional green economic development level is built. Second, the heterogeneous information is normalized and the prospect function of the scheme to be compared is calculated. Furthermore, by defining the degree of consistency and inconsistency between the ranking of prospect value and the decision preference of experts, the decision optimization model is establishedand the prospect value of each scheme is calculated to rank and optimize the scheme. Finally, taking the evaluation of the level of green economic development in Sanming city as an example, the validity, rationality and practicability of this method are explained.

Robust Portfolio Models Based on Dynamic Reference Point and Their Extensions

WANG Zong-run, HE Tang-tang

2021, 30(6):  124-131.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0190

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The robust portfolio model is a method for seeking the optimal decision under the condition of uncertainty. First, considering the investor's emphasis on the minimum requirement, we establish a dynamic reference point model based on the different attitudes of the aggressive and conservative investors when the return touches the minimum requirement. Next, on the one hand, the existing Worst-case Omega(WOmega)model is improved by using the dynamic reference point as a threshold for dividing the gain and loss. On the other hand, combined with the investor's characteristics of the downside risk aversion, the existing Relative Robust Portfolio Optimization(RRPO)model is improved by using the dynamic reference point as the benchmark for the downside risk. In the empirical study, for the class of WOmega models, the results show that the aggressive model performs best during the in-sample periods, while the conservative model performs best during the out-of-sample periods. For the class of RRPO models, the results show that the aggressive behavior yields relatively high return, while the conservative behavior controls the standard deviation and the maximum loss relatively better. With the relaxation of constraints, the return obtained by all models can be significantly improved.

Measuring Expected Shortfall of Industry Portfolio Using High-Frequency Volatility Models and R-vine copula

YU Wen-hua, YANG Kun, WEI Yu

2021, 30(6):  132-138.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0191

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Compared with low-frequency volatility models, high-frequency volatility models can achieve moreaccurate volatility and risk forecasts of single assets, thus how to introduce high-frequency volatility models into portfolio risk analysis has a theoretical and practical significance. Taking the high frequency data of six various industries in CSI 300 index as an example, we construct nine HAR-RV-type models to depict industry index volatility using the out-of-sample rolling time window technique. At the same time, R-vine model is built to describe the dependence structure between industry indexes. On that basis, combining the optimized weight of industry assets from Mean-CVaR method, the expected shortfall models of industry portfolio are constructed and the backtesting method is used to compare the accuracy of different risk models. The results prove that the HAR-type models which are the crucial proxies of high-frequency volatility models can effectively forecast the expected shortfall of industry portfolio. Then, the high-frequency volatility forecasts can further affect the accuracy of portfolio risk forecasts. The jump, signed jump variation and signed negative and positive jump variation are helpful to forecast industry portfolio risk more accurately.

Research on Financial Market Model Based on Different Roles of Market Maker

WANG Jing, YANG Zhi

2021, 30(6):  139-143.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0192

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In this paper, we establish the financial market model of market maker under the two roles of market maker as investors and suppliers. By using the stability and bifurcation theory of discrete dynamical system, the existence of fixed points and the influence of important parameters on the stability of the system are considered. In particular, the effect of market maker's role change on system stability is considered, and it is concluded that the appropriate adjustment of inventory adjustment rate plays a certain role in preventing the sharp fluctuation of market price.

Research on the Impact of The Herd Effect in Online Video Program

TAN De-qing, WU Hao

2021, 30(6):  144-149.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0193

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This paper constructs a two-stage decision model from the perspective of herding effect and obtains the optimal pricing and advertising.The research shows that the impact of herd effect in fee-based model on the optimal pricing is related to the consumer scale, and will further reduce optimal advertising. If the herd effect in payment is higher, the firm can increase profit by extending fee-based model time. The herd effect in fee-based model leads to an increase in the total scale of consumers,but fee-based model has a cannibalization effect on free-based model. In the case of a low herd effect in free-based model, only a higher herd effect in fee-based model results in an increase in the total profit of the video program, otherwise the total profit decreases.

Fitting Term Structure of Bond Credit Spread Based on Joint Estimation Method and Its Application

ZHOU Rong-xi, SUN Zhen, WANG Zhen

2021, 30(6):  150-158.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0194

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Based onmonthly frequency data from 2016 to 2018, this paper fits the term structure of credit spreads by four methods: single-curve spline model and SV model of independent estimation, multi-curve spline model and SV model of joint estimation,and compares the applicability of the model, anddiscusses the practical application of fitting model in macroeconomic forecasting. Three empirical conclusions are drawn. Firstly, the function form of model is the cause of the reversal of the term structure curve of theoretical credit spreads. The shape of the credit spreads curve fitted by spline model and SV model is totally different. The fitting curve is largely determined by the function of models. Secondly, the joint estimation model can modify the artificial distortion of the independent estimation model. The results of the multi-curve model are closer to the actual credit spreads, with a significantly reduced error volatility. Thirdly, the term structure of corporate bond credit spreads implies some information about the future macro-economy. And in the short term, the forecast results become better with the extension of the advance period. Therefore, macroeconomic policymakers should pay attention to the credit spreads and the information implied by it.

Study on Tourist Bus Pricing Based on Tourist Age Characteristics

LI Yan-feng, GONG Gui-lin

2021, 30(6):  159-165.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0195

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Designing reasonable pricing for tourist buses has a positive impact on the development of tourist public transport. Through the analysis of tourists' travel preferences, considering that tourists of different ages have different choosing behaviors, a bi-level programming model of Tourism Bus pricing is established, the upper level is the most profitable model for bus enterprises, and the lower level is the stochastic user equilibrium of multi-population elastic demand. An improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is designed for model solving. The results of numerical experiments show that age characteristics will affect the optimal pricing strategy. Comfort sensitivity coefficient affects pricing, and tourist buses are more comfortable than conventional buses, which improves the competitiveness of enterprises. Compared with the standard particle swarm optimization, the improved particle swarm optimization algorithm has better solutionperformance and quality.


Pricing and Coordination of Supplier Shareholding Manufacturers under Linear DemandSupply Chain

SONG Zhao-yu, SUN Bing-zhen, ZHAO Ke-tong

2021, 30(6):  166-171.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0196

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The formation of equity alliances between enterprises through mutual shareholding to improve performance andcompetitivenessand respond to an increasingly complex environment has become the trend of corporate equity reform. Actually, each node of the supply chain improvesits performance and efficiencythrough the shareholding strategy. We introduce the Stackelberg game model to discuss the optimal decision of each node enterprise under decentralized and centralized conditions. The Stackelberg game model is introduced to discuss the optimal order quantity and price decision of each enterprise underdecentralized and centralized situations. The research shows that supplier A's participation in manufacturer B cannot eliminate the double marginal effect of the supply chain. Based on this, a coordination contract for revenue sharing and linear transfer payment is designed. The contract allows supplier A and manufacturer B to distribute system profits in any proportion by adjusting the wholesale price, so that the supply chain is perfectly coordinated.

A Movie Daily Demand Prediction Model Considering Consumption Motivation and Dynamic Competition

TANG Zhong-Jun, ZHOU Ya-Li

2021, 30(6):  172-180.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0197

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This paper proposes and illustrates a daily movie demand prediction model considering consumption motivation and dynamic competition. A two-stage process model on movie consumption is advanced by taking account of consumption motivation of non-fans and fans consumers. The prediction model is proposed by integrating the two-stage process model and Bass model. The prediction model takes impacts of attention to movie before being released, word of mouth, and holiday on demand into consideration. The prediction model is illustrated with data of movies released from 2016 to 2017 in China, and compared with the Bass model. The results show that forecast accuracy of the prediction model is better than Bass model. Considering the dynamic market potential caused by competition and the increase of dynamic market potential by sequel effect and adaptation effect of fans consumers, this model can significantly improve the forecast accuracy. By considering attention to movie before being released and word of mouth, the prediction model may be useful for early prediction of movie daily demand. This model can be extended to other short life cycle experience products with dynamic competition and different consumption motivation, which is a supplement to Bass model.

Dynamic Quality Improvement Input and Marketing Effort Coordination Strategies Considering Delay Phenomenon

MA De-qing, HU Jin-song

2021, 30(6):  181-190.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0198

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This paper uses delay differential equation to describe the delay phenomenon of quality improvement investment on brand goodwill promotion, and the differential game models under five decision-making modes are constructed, which are non-cooperative game mode, cooperative game mode and partial cooperative game modes of cost sharing(one-way partial cooperative game of manufacturer participating in marketing, one-way partial cooperative game of retailer participating in production, two-way partial cooperative game of manufacturer participating in marketing and retailer participating in production). With the help of Hamilton maximum principle, the optimal quality improvement input strategy of manufacturer, the optimal marketing effort strategy of retailer and supply chain profit are obtained in five cases. Comparing the results of five game models, we find that: 1)Delay phenomenon can reduce manufacturers' enthusiasm for quality improvement investment, but it has no effect on retailers' marketing efforts. Under the influence of delay phenomenon, brand goodwill decays first and then improves. 2)Cooperative game is always the best choice for supply chain performance. Although three kinds of cost-sharing partial cooperative game contracts can not achieve complete coordination of supply chain, they can improve non-cooperative game. 3)Of the three kinds of cost-sharing contracts, two-way cooperative partial cooperative game is the best choice for supply chain, but its Pareto improvement effect increases with the delay time. The results will no longer be obvious.

Government Compensation Mechanism for PPP Based on Risk Preference and Fairness Preference

GAO Hua, HOU Xiao-xuan, ZHANG Xin-xin

2021, 30(6):  191-197.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0199

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Based on the comprehensive consideration of the risk preference and fairness preference of social capital, this paper constructs a Stackelberg game model between government and social capital, to analyzes the optimum design of government compensation mechanism under the influence of risk preference and fairness preference. The research shows that the optimal investment level of social capital is negatively correlated with risk preference and positively correlated with the degree of fairness preference. The optimal design of the government compensation mechanism should be based on the consideration of the single-phase the risk and the fair premium cost, and the government should estimate the relative operating profit of the single-phase, and then coordinate the annual construction cost compensation and the operating period compensation coefficient to design optimal annual construction cost compensation and the optimal operating period compensation coefficient.

Research on New Evaluation Method of Enterprise's Technology Innovation Ability

WANG Sheng-lan, WEI Feng, MOU Qian-hui

2021, 30(6):  198-204.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0200

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The core competitiveness of an enterprise's development is the ability of technological innovation. It is necessary to evaluate the technological innovation ability of the enterprise in a fair and objective manner. The research method of the new type of technological innovation ability of the enterprise is helpful to the growth and sustainable development of the enterprise. This article has comprehensively analyzed the technological innovation capabilities of enterprises and compared and analyzed the definition, content, classification and evaluation methods of the enterprise's technological innovation capabilities. When putting forward the evaluation and analysis of technological innovation ability of enterprises, the continuous innovation ability and economic benefit of the enterprise should be taken as the important content of evaluation. The research and construction of new enterprise technology innovation capability evaluation index system include two secondary indicators of innovation support and innovation subject. And,the indicator system includes seven three-level indicators: innovation management capabilities, innovation input capabilities, innovative production capabilities, innovative marketing capabilities, research and development capabilities, innovation output capabilities and continuous innovation capabilities, and 29 four-level indicators. The new evaluation index system for enterprise technology innovation capability hopes to provide reference for enterprises to improve their technological innovation capabilities.

The Effectiveness Evaluation of “World-class” Discipline Construction Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets

ZHANG Xiao-wen, ZHAO Pu, JI Ai-bing

2021, 30(6):  205-210.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0201

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Aiming at the subjective and objective preferences of the evaluation of China's “world-class” discipline construction effectiveness, the mathematical model of intuitionistic fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is established. Based on the intuitionistic fuzzy sets, two kinds of intuitionistic fuzzy synthetic operators, namely intuitionistic fuzzy weighted average(IFWA)operator and intuitionistic fuzzy principal factors prominent(IFPFP)operator, are proposed and applied to the evaluation of “world-class” discipline construction effectiveness. The application example shows that this method can effectively solve some outstanding problems such as quantitative evaluation and poor representativeness of some evaluation indicators in the current discipline evaluation field, and can give more scientific and accurate evaluation results.

Management Science

The Impact and Potential Mechanism of Corporate Strategy on M&A Behavior

HU Wen-xiu, ZHU Guan-ping, ZHANG Wei-guo, MU Qing-bang

2021, 30(6):  211-217.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0202

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In order to explore the impact of the corporate strategic risk and deviation on the M&A behavior, this paper uses Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2017 as sample data, to empirically test the impact mechanism based on Logit and Position model: both the corporate strategy and M&A behavior. The results show that the strategic risk dimension of corporate is significantly positively correlated with the M&A behavior, which indicates that the more the corporate strategy is risk-oriented, the higher the M&A tendency is, the more the M&A times there will be. Meanwhile,the strategic deviation dimension of corporate is significantly negatively correlated with M&A behavior, which indicates that the more the corporate strategy deviates from the conventional strategy of the peers, the lower the M&A tendency is, the smaller the number of the M&A there will be. Further research shows that the complete internal control, the incentive of higher salary and the hiring of high-level executives can effectively restrain both the excessive M&A and M&A deficient caused by the corporate strategy, and promote the rationalization of the M&A. This paper studies the tendency as well as the number of M&A from the perspective of corporate strategy, which will help to understand the internal mechanism of M&A. At the same time, it also provides new clues and evidences for the listed companies to bring the M&A behavior under control and to well manage its risks.

Research on Customer Knowledge Balance and Effective Boundary Recognition for Hybrid Offerings Generation

LUO Jian-qiang, HU Bing-kun, LI Hong-bo

2021, 30(6):  218-225.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0203

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The substitution effect between customer knowledge makes it easy for manufacturing enterprise to distort the absorption of customer knowledge, which will be detrimental to hybrid offerings generation. According to the customer's two types of knowledge and the mapping characteristics of physical products and derivative services in hybrid offerings, two types of knowledge equilibrium models for hybrid offerings generation are constructed. The result shows that in the process of hybrid offerings generation, if the two types of knowledge acquired by the manufacturing enterprise are substitution effects, the knowledge transfer between the supply and demand sides has an effective boundary characterized by the knowledge substitution coefficient, and the absorption of the “Matthew effect” is polarized. If the two types of knowledge absorbed by the manufacturing enterprise are complementary, the manufacturing enterprise can achieve sustainable knowledge innovation, so that the knowledge transfer between the supply and demand sides will show a positive trend of synergistic growth.

The Choice of a E-retailer's Operation Modes under Network Platform Service Environment

WANG Gan-fu, AI Xing-zheng, ZHONG Li

2021, 30(6):  226-233.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0204

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This paper studies operation modes in which two suppliers supply substitute product to a e-retailer who owns online platform and sets platform service level. The paper develops endogenous platform service model, and identifies conditions that the e-retailer chooses platform modes (or reselling modes), and examines the characteristics of revenue sharing that realizes win-win. The results show: when the competitive intensity of suppliers is low, the parameter of service cost is high, and if a proportion of revenue sharing is less than a threshold, the e-retailer prefers the platform modes; moreover, the service level is high and the retailing price is low; when the competitive intensity of suppliers is strong, the e-retailer always prefers reselling modes; when potential market size is small and the proportion of revenue sharing locates some region, the e-retailer and suppliers both prefer platform modes, otherwise the suppliers prefer reselling modes.

Incentive Contract Design Considering Consumer Loyalty

ZHANG Yan-lin, DOU Xiang-sheng

2021, 30(6):  234-239.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0205

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Under the condition of information asymmetry, how to achieve optimal performance of employers in the absence of employee behavior can be an important issue that needs to be solved at the upper level of the enterprise. In this context, different from the existing literature, this paper, based on the consumer-centered characteristics of service-oriented enterprises, incorporates consumer loyalty into the principal-agent model, and discusses the best ways for companies to hire employees by designing the incentive contract mechanism. The results show that: (1)employees who work stably for a long time will choose the wage system. These employees tend to use the effort level to improve consumer loyalty, and the result of their choice can bring profits to the enterprise; (2)short-term instability The employees of the work choose a fixed salary system. The zero pay of such employees will cause losses to the enterprise, and the loss is the fixed salary of the short-term unsteady employees; (3)The employees who choose the commission system will bring the service enterprises Positive benefits, while employees who choose a fixed wage system bring a fixed salary loss to the company. From the perspective of the way companies employ employees, this paper adopts a wage system for service employees who are more inclined to directly create performance for consumers, and a fixed salary system for non-service employees who do not directly face consumers. An explanation helps to grasp the focus of enterprise management, and thus enhance the impetus of corporate performance improvement on economic development.