Table of Content

25 May 2021, Volume 30 Issue 5

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Model and Algorithm of Removable Online Mobile Knapsack Problem

SU Bing, REN Hong-guang, ZHOU Jia-qi, CHEN Guang-hui, LIN Guo-hui

2021, 30(5):  1-5.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0137

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This paper proposes a removable online mobile knapsack problem, in which a knapsack with some goods needs to serve designated demand points from the starting point. The knapsack should unload the demands and load the goods which need to bring back to the starting point at each demand point, in which the demands are known and the number of good to be loaded are unpredictable. The goal is to find the order of service of demand points and whether to load the goods at each demand point to maximizing the quantity of goods that knapsack brings back to the starting point. By using the online theory and method, this paper establishes the model and designs the online algorithm . By analyzing the difference between the quantity of goods to be loaded and the residual capacity of the knapsack at the demand points, this paper proves the competition ratio and analyses the influencing factors of the competition ratio. The results show that the more of minimize good loading limit, the number of demand points and the amount of good to be loaded at the demand points, the better of the algorithm effectiveness.

Model on Location Optimization of VTS Radar Station

HUANG Chuan, LU Jing

2021, 30(5):  6-14.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0138

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The results of radar station location and configuration have an important impact on improving the operational performance of the vessel traffic service(abbreviated as VTS). The dominant location optimization models of VTS radar station is difficult to be applied because the factors of waterway risk and environmental occlusion are less considered in models. To resolve these problems, a optimization method of VTS radar station location and configuration based on water unit risk assessment is proposed. In this method a bi-objective model is proposed after the division, risk assessment and visibility analysis of the water area considering the risk and environmental occlusion factors around the water area by use of ArcGIS software, and a multi-objective particle swarm optimization is designed to solve the model. Finally, an example in Zhaoqing City shows that the final solution can satisfy the constraints in the model, so that the coverage performance of VTS radar station can be improved under the condition that the location result considers the waterway risk and the environmental occlusion, and the practical application of the VTS radar station location is promoted meanwhile.

The Study on New Facility Location Strategy under Minmax Regret Criterion

YU Jiang-xia, ZHAO Yang, LUO Tai-bo, LI Hong-mei

2021, 30(5):  15-20.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0139

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In this paper, we consider the new facility location problem in a general network with positive edge lengths and interval vertex weights. There are some facilities in the network already, and a new facility should be located so that the maximum load of all the facilities is minimized. When the vertex weights are determined, the network graph can be discretized into finite facility candidate points, and a polynomial algorithm with a time complexity of is designed. When the vertex weights are given as interval values, a particular assignment of a weight to each vertex is called a scenario. The problem requires that a point should be determined as the new facility location on the graph, such that the maximum regret of the objective function for all possible scenarios is minimized. By analyzing the structure of the worst scenarios corresponding to the maximum regret value, an algorithm with a time complexity of is proposed to solve the problem. Finally, a numerical example is given.

Post-disruption Restoration Model for Enhancing Resilience of Interdependent Critical Infrastructure Networks

YAN Ke-sheng, RONG Li-li

2021, 30(5):  21-30.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0140

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The reasonable post-disruption restoration plan of damaged components in interdependent critical infrastructure networks(ICINs)is the key issue of its safety management. Firstly, in this paper, the resilience metric of ICINs is defined and the post-disaster restoration strategy is analyzed. Then, aiming at maximizing the resilience of ICINs, a mixed integer programming model is formulated based on network flow theory for selection and sequencing of post-disaster restoration tasks of ICINs under the constraint of limited post-disaster restoration resources, and a genetic algorithm is developed to solve the problem. Finally, the proposed model and genetic algorithm are tested by applications with different sizes. The results show that: (1)the proposed model is feasible and effective; (2)the developed genetic algorithm can obtain high-quality solution, and the solution time and results are better than that of Cplex software for large size problems; (3)integrating the functional and spatial interdependencies between CINs into the proposed model can get higher resilience of ICINs. Our model can provide decision support for post-disaster restoration of ICINs.

Vehicle and Drone Joint Distribution Routing Problem with Multiple Drone Hubs

WANG Xin, WANG Zheng, XU Wei

2021, 30(5):  31-37.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0141

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The joint distribution mode of vehicle and drone is popular in the industry. This mode effectively reduces the distribution cost, but it has great scheduling difficulty, and the solution of the problem is also very complex. In this paper, the problem is clearly defined and the model is established. According to the characteristics of the problem, an adaptive large neighborhood search (ALNS) algorithm is designed. The results show that, compared with Gurobi, ALNS algorithm has obvious advantages in running time, and the results are the same or even better; the joint distribution mode of vehicle and drone also saves the cost compared with the only truck distribution mode.

Research on the Complementarity Model of Closed-Loop Supply Chain Network Equilibrium with Environmental Indicators

LI Peng-yu, XU Shi-qin, HAN Ji-ye

2021, 30(5):  38-45.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0142

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In this paper, we propose a closed-loop supply chain network equilibrium model with environmentalindicators through nonlinear complementarity theory, which is composed of raw material suppliers, manufacturers, retailers, demand markets and recovery centers. In view of sustainable development, the Ministry of Environmental Protection legislates by imposing emission penalties to prevent the manufacturers from violating laws and regulations but offering premiums to stimulate the recovery centers to recycle used products. The penalties and premiums should be greater than the corresponding shadow prices as environmental indicators determined by the model, which is constructive for decision making of the authorities. We describe their behavior, derive optimality conditions and establish the corresponding nonlinear complementarity model in accordance with the closed-loop supply chain network equilibrium conditions. Based on the existence of solution to the model under reasonable assumptions, a numerical example is provided for illustration.

Research on Robust Control of Inventory System in Kitchen Electric Appliance Supply Chain Network Considering Multiple Lead-Times

ZHANG Jian-tong, JIA Hui-feng, ZHAO Xiao-wei

2021, 30(5):  46-51.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0143

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In the practice of kitchen electric appliance supply chain management, the stability of the supply chain system could be disturbed by uncertain factors such as marketing, technology and consumer demands, leading to instability and loss. For the purpose of enhancing the robust performance of the supply chain network, firstly, a fuzzy model of the kitchen electric appliance supply chain with multiple lead times and uncertain demand is established according to Takagi-Sugeno theory. Secondly, according to the different inventory statuses of each manufacturer for different periods, the manufacturer's production strategy is designed. Then a fuzzy robust control strategy is proposed to restrain the impacts of lead times and uncertain demand on the kitchen electric appliance supply chain. At last, based on a real case of kitchen electric appliance supply chain, a simulation model is established to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the fuzzy robust control strategy.

Dynamic Quality Improvement Strategy of “Connecting Agriculture with Supermarkets” Supply Chain Considering Reference Quality Effect

LI Bao-yong, MA De-qing, DAI Geng-xin, HU Jin-song

2021, 30(5):  52-59.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0144

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Taking the secondary supply chain composed of “rural cooperative+supermarket” as the research object under the background of “connecting agriculture with supermarkets”, considering the effect of consumer reference quality on demand, based on the differential game theory, we obtain the optimal strategy and profit of the equilibrium parties under the three cases of cost sharing contract, non-cooperation and centralized decision respectively. The analysis shows that: the reference quality effect behavior of consumers can encourage rural cooperatives to improve the quality level of agricultural products, at the same time it alleviates the advertising pressure of supermarkets, and reduces the advertising level of supermarkets; When the conversion degree of goodwill to reference quality is large, decision makers will choose low goodwill strategy to maintain consumers' reasonable expected value of agricultural product quality, which forms a bad business environment with low quality of agricultural products and low income of members; The cost sharing contract not only improves the quality of agricultural products, but also realizes the Pareto improvement of the profits of supermarkets and rural cooperatives, which can change the bad situation where supermarkets are helpless in the face of inferior agricultural products.

Study on Stability of Bicycle Sharing System Based on Reducing the Ratio of Invalid Bicycle Parking Areas

ZHAO Dao-zhi, WANG Di

2021, 30(5):  60-65.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0145

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The operating stability of Bicycle Sharing System(BSS)could be affected by the existing invalid bicycle parking areas which make users unable to pick up or return bicycles. This work establishes the mean field equations for steady state of BBS based on the Queuing theory and Markov chain to solve the stable state, and finds that the interaction between parking areas makes the invalid parking area produce demand overflow effect on adjacent parking area. In this situation, the ratio of invalid parking areas would be increased and the operating stability of BBS could also be affected. This paper introduces the(M,S)interaction strategy to adjust the interaction between invalid parking areas and adjacent parking areas, with the aim of reducing the invalid parking area ration of BSS. Furthermore, the interactions between parking areas with the same and different types and the invalid parking area ration of BSS under(M,S)interaction strategy are compared based on the analysis of numerical examples. The results show that the(M,S)interaction strategy can effectively reduce the ratio of invalid parking area and in turn enhance the operating stability of BSS. In general, this the research could provide valuable references for the operating stability decisions of bicycle sharing enterprise.

Reliability Analysis of Logic Gates Based on Semi-Markov Process

DUI Hong-yan, ZHENG Xiao-qian, CHEN Li-wei, YANG Nan

2021, 30(5):  66-72.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0146

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Dynamic fault tree is a top-down deductive technique, which extends from traditional static fault tree analysis. It is usually used to model systems with complex failure behaviors and interactions in the system reliability. For the reliability modeling and analysis of logic gates of the dynamic fault tree, this paper combines the semi-Markov process principle to transform dynamic logic gates into semi-Markov chains. Firstly, a universal semi-Markov chain is proposed for many static and dynamic logic gates. Then a general equation of all gates is given to solve dynamic fault tree with semi-Markov model. Finally, it proposes a solution thought for typical logic gates to simplify the computational complexity based on semi-Markov model.

Improvement of FMEA Method Based on Hesitative Fuzzy Preference Relation

ZHANG Meng-fei, WANG Tie-dan, PENG Ding-hong, REN Zi-rui

2021, 30(5):  73-78.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0147

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In order to effectively solve a series of quality reliability problems in product development process, an improved FMEA method based on hesitant fuzzy preference relation is proposed. Considering that the expert group mainly relies on relevant criteria and its own experience when evaluating different failure modes, there are problems of hesitation, ambiguity and uncertainty or self-preference. Firstly, the evaluation criteria of risk factors are fuzzified by hesitation, and the relative risk matrix of failure modes is processed by hesitation fuzzy preference relation. Secondly, the comprehensive preference value with hesitation fuzzy preference relation is combined with hesitation fuzzy evaluation information to obtain the improved risk priority number. A new failure mode risk assessment sequence is proposed to improve FMEA. Finally, the improved FMEA model is used to analyze and verify the risk in the process of product development, which makes the risk results closer to the actual situation, and then improves the success rate of R&D. It shows that the method is feasible and effective.

Nonparametric Profile Monitoring Using B-spline and Clustering Analysis

NIE Bin, YE Wen-jing, LIU Di-qing, LIU Xiao-hui

2021, 30(5):  79-87.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0148

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When process or product data follow a particular curve in quality control, profile monitoring is suitable and appropriate for assessing and diagnosing quality status. If the functional form of the profile is known, parametric methods could be used to monitor the profile. However, when the profilehas complex shape, parametric methods may result in the problem that the outliers cannot be correctly detected due to the misspecified model. Therefore, this article proposes a novel approach based on nonparametric regression to monitor the phase I process for complex profiles. This approach combines the B-spline based on nonparametric regression with the modified cluster analysis process, and does not require restrictive assumptions on the form of the profile in the application. Our simulation study analyzes the performance of the proposed approach under different circumstances, and the effectiveness and applicability of the approach are verified by comparison with the existing approaches. Finally, a classic case in the field of profile T² monitoring is used to illustrate the practical application of the novel approach in this article.

Manufacturer's Production Strategies for Two Substitutable Products under Capital Constraints and Cap-and-Trade Regulation of Carbon Emissions

QIN Juan-juan, LI Jing

2021, 30(5):  88-94.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0149

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The cap-and-trade regulation and capital constraints influence the firms' production strategies greatly. However, few studies have been focused on the manufacturer's production strategies for substitute products with ordinary and environment-friendly products under carbon emission constraints and capital constraints. Thus, this paper discusses a capital-constrained manufacturer's production decisions under a cap-and-trade regulation. This study discusses four cases consideringwithout/with cap-and-trade regulation of carbon emissions and without/with bank financing. This paper adopts the newsvendor model to analyze the manufacturer's optimal production decisions and profits. Also, this paper analyzes the influence of some key parameters on the manufacturer's optimal decisions. We find that: (1)Without bank financing, if the manufacturer's limited initial capital is lower, it will produce more ordinary products; if the manufacturer's limited initial capital is high, it will produce more environmental-friendly products. (2)With bank financing, when the loan interest rate is lower, the manufacturer will produce more environment-friendly products; otherwise, it will produce more ordinary products. (3)With bank financing, if the carbon emission cap is high, the financing amount and financing cost without a cap-and-trade regulation are higher than those with a cap-and-trade regulation; otherwise, the opposite conclusion is obtained.

Analysis of the Evolution of Emergency Management of Public Engineering Projects Considering Public Participation

YANG Su, LIN Hao-dong

2021, 30(5):  95-101.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0150

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In the current emergency management of public engineering projects, public participation plays an increasingly important role. Based on the assumption of bounded rationality, the article considers the impact of public participation in the emergency management of public construction projects, subdivides the role of the government into two decision-making bodies, central government and local government, and establishes a non-cooperative evolution of the central government-local government-public tripartite The game model analyzes the evolutionary and stable strategies of different decision-making entities, simulates the decision-making process, and verifies the conclusions of the model through simulation. The research results show that public participation has become an important force in the decision-making process of public engineering emergency management. If the central government of the three parties effectively regulates the irregular behavior of local governments, public participation will have a better “side-by-side” supervision effect, so as to promote the ideal evolution of the system toward a stable equilibrium state of “effective supervision by the central government, effective regulation by local governments, and active public participation”.

The Applications of Utility function and Entropy of Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Set in Risk Decision-Making

LI Ru-xia, HU Wen-xiu, QI Xiao-liang

2021, 30(5):  102-109.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0151

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Aiming at the problem of Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM) with Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Set (IT2FS) as the information environment, the IT2FS utility function is introduced, and the risk decision model based on IT2FS utility function, entropy and risk factor is proposed. Firstly, based on the idea of cut set, two kinds of IT2FS utility function formulas are proposed, which effectively extracts all the information of IT2FS, which is more scientific and effective than the previous ranking-valued formulae. Secondly, based on the proposed three uncertainty measures of IT2FS, three new uncertain measures are proposed. Based on these three uncertain measures, the IT2FS entropy formula is put forward for the deficiency of the original entropy metric. Thirdly, the introduction of risk preference factors reflects the different risk attitudes of decision makers and improves the range of risk preference factors. We construct a risk decision model based on utility function, entropy and risk preference factor. Finally, the results of an example analysis shows that the risk preference of decision makers in the risk decision model has an impact on the attribute weight and the ranking of the alternatives. The decision-making idea has certain reference functions for risk investment decision-making and risk management decision-making.

Evolutionary Game on Trust among Local Governments in Collaborative Governance of Regional Air Pollution

JING Yi, DU Peng-qi, CAO Liu

2021, 30(5):  110-115.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0152

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The degree of trust among local governments in the air basin is a key factor affecting the stability of the collaborative governance relationship of air pollution. Based on the bounded rationality of local governments, an asymmetric trust evolutionary game model of three local governments participating in the collaborative governance of regional air pollution is constructed. On the basis of solving the equilibrium point of the model and analyzing its stability, the evolutionary path of trust in different situations and the influence of the variations of each parameter on trust probability are discussed. This research shows that improving the direct governance benefit, collaborative addition benefit, collaborative indirect benefit, reducing governance risk cost, revealing potential loss, and reasonably determining the amount of ecological compensation can enhance the possibility that the collaborative governance relationship ultimately reaches the state of trust equilibrium.

A Study on Integrating DEA and TOPSIS Based upon Shephard Distance Function

LI Yong-jun, CAI Hua-quan

2021, 30(5):  116-121.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0153

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Traditional DEA models measure DMU's efficiency using a set of specific weights which is most beneficial to that DMU's efficiency score. Some scholars point out that it can't guarantee the accuracy of efficiency measure. TOPSIS provides a good idea to solve this problem because it considers both ideal and anti-ideal situations. By introducing Shephard distance function, this paper formally develops a general framework of integrating DEA and TOPSIS for ranking. The paper first defines ideal (anti-ideal) DMUs and corresponding (anti-) production possibility set, then based upon the ideal (anti-ideal) DMUs, elicits the efficiency measurement models and Shephard distance function for each DMU, and shows a complete rank by a comprehensive index called the relative closeness to the ideal DMU. At the end, the numerical experiment has shown that proposed method is relatively valid and practicable. This paper combines advantages of DEA and TOPSIS, considers ideal DMUs and anti-ideal DMUs, generates fairer results, and improves 2 defects of WL's model.

Method for Ranking Hotels Based on Online Ratings and Considering Consumer Types

TAO Ling-ling, YOU Tian-hui

2021, 30(5):  122-128.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0154

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Three factors, namely, the time of online rating published, the number of “useful” votes and whether rating is labeled as “ZhuanJia Rating”, have a significant impact on the credibility of online rating and consumer purchasing decision. Considering the different needs of different consumers' groups, a method for ranking hotels is proposed based on the online ratings considering the credibility of online ratings and consumer types. First, the online rating information given by different types of consumer groups is converted into interval-valued neutrosophic considering the credibility of online rating. Second, the weight of each consumer group for target group is calculated according to the method for measuring the distance of interval-valued neutrosophic, and then the hotel-attribute decision matrix for the target consumer group is determined according to the INLNPA integration operator. Third, the weight of each attribute is calculated according to the entropy measure method of interval-valued neutrosophic set, and then the hotel ranking results for the target groups are obtained based on the VIKOR method. Finally, a case study shows the validity and feasibility of the proposed method.

An Approximation Algorithm for Two-machine scheduling Problem with Flexible Maintenance to Minimize Makespan

LI Gang-gang, LU Xi-wen

2021, 30(5):  129-133.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0155

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This paper considers a two-machine scheduling problem with flexible maintenance with the objective to minimize makespan. In the scheduling model, the first machine needs maintenance during a fixed period, while the other one is available all the time. Preemption is not allowed. We provide an approximation algorithm with worst-case ratio ofand show that the worst-case ratio is tight.

Application Research

Pricing and Ordering Decisions in a Capital Constraint Supply Chain with Trade Credit Financing and Demand Information Updating

YANG Hong-lin, XIE Zheng, WANG Jing-ru, YUAN Ji-jun

2021, 30(5):  134-139.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0156

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This paper investigates the pricing and ordering decisionsof a two-echelon supply chain with a single manufacturer and a single capital-constrained retailer under demand information updating. We find that for the retailer's less initial capital level and larger updated estimated demand, the manufacturer would adopt a more aggressive pricingstrategy. The retailer's order quantity decreases in the initial capital level. Only when the updated estimated demand is below a certain threshold,the retailer's order quantity increases in the updated estimated demand. In addition, the numerical simulations show that demand information updating is more likely to bring additional value to the retailer than the manufacturer, and creates additional value for both members under certain conditions.

Research on Sales Channel Selection and Pricing Strategy of Cruise Supply Chain

ZENG Qing-cheng, XIANG Hui, QU Chen-rui

2021, 30(5):  140-146.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0157

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China's cruise industry has entered the adjustment period since 2017, and the distribution channel has become one of the bottlenecks restricting its development. Under these circumstances, this paper considers the difference of customers' willingness to pay in different channels, and constructs a decision-making model of cruise ticket sales channels and sales strategies. By comparing the three sales modes of single cruise direct channel, double-channel under charter model and double-channel under agency model, this paper analyses the influence of travel agencies on expanding the market share of cruise companies and enhancing the competitiveness of cruise supply chain. We demonstrate that the choice of sales channel is affected by many factors, such as cruise's cabin capacity, the increase in market size with the travel agency channel and the ability of travel agencies to sell cruise products. When the cruise market is in the incubation stage, cruise companies tend to develop the market through the single cruise direct channel. As the market gradually matures demand grows, cooperation between cruise companies and travel agencies becomes an inevitable trend. And the choice of cooperation strategy is affected by the commission rate.

The Impacts of Government Regulation on Due Diligence Patterns of Producer under Differentiated Pricing Strategies

CHEN Yu-yu, LI Bang-yi, WANG Zhe, WANG Yue

2021, 30(5):  147-153.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0158

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The monopolistic producer manufactures both new and remanufactured products, while the government regulates the behavior of the producer by setting a minimum recycling rate. First, by considering the distribution of consumer types, the impact of the regulatory level on the producer due diligence patterns is explored, i.e., the realization of the producer responsibility. Consequently, we explore the way to achieve due diligence under different pricing strategies. Finally, we analyze how the producer should choose the pricing strategy. The results show that the producer has three kinds of due diligence patterns, and thresholds between them are also obtained. With the increase of the regulation level, the producer will achieve due diligence by expanding production scale of both new and remanufactured products under low pricing strategy. While under the high pricing strategy, the producer achieves due diligence by reducing the output of new products and increasing the output of remanufactured products. Furthermore, when green consumers account for a larger proportion of the market, the producer should adopt high pricing strategy, otherwise, he should adopt low pricing strategy.

Product Innovation and Pricing Strategies in the Presence of Strategic Consumers

NIU Wen-ju, XIA Jing

2021, 30(5):  154-160.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0159

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This paper investigates the optimal product innovation and pricing strategies of a monopoly manufacturer facing strategic consumers. Methods such as consumer utility theory and game theory are used to develop models over two periods under the dynamic-and static-pricing strategies. The results show that strategic consumers make purchase decisions based on some price thresholds of the upgraded products. Compared to the static-pricing strategy, the dynamic-pricing strategy enables the manufacturer to get more expected profit, but results in less consumer surplus and innovation incentive particularly when the discount factor of product value is high. In addition, the effects of strategic consumers' purchase behavior on product innovation, the manufacturer's expected profit, and consumer surplus depend not only on the pricing strategy but also on the discount factor of product value. Our findings offer consumers theoretical proposals of purchasing and upgrading products, as well as provide firms with decision-making reference about the adoption of the product innovation and pricing strategies.

Research on Asset Allocation Strategy Based on Risk Network Structure

ZHANG Wei-ping, ZHUANG Xin-tian, WU Dong-mei

2021, 30(5):  161-167.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0160

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The stock market is a high-risk market, and how to carry out effective asset allocation is a hot issue in the frequent extreme fluctuation environment. This paper first uses VaR (value at risk) model to build stock market risk network, and conducts selection of optimal portfolio by risk network structure. The paper empirically analyzes the time-varying relationship between the optimal asset allocation weight and the risk network centrality under different volatility markets, then proposes a new dynamic portfolio strategy (φ investment strategy) which fuses time-varying central and individual performance. The results show that: there is a positive correlation between the network centrality and the optimal portfolio weight in bull and stable market, and the network centrality and the optimal portfolio weight are negatively correlated in decline market; When φ>0.05, the investor's reasonable investment area moves to the high-central node, otherwise. Finally, the portfolio performance of φ strategy proves that risk network structure can improve the portfolio selection process. This study is of great significance for optimizing allocation of assets, improving the return of investment and diversifying the risk of investment.

Benefit Distribution Model of “The Belt and Road”PPP Project Based on Modified Interval Fuzzy Shapley Value

WANG Yi-hong, TIAN Ping-ye, DENG Bin-chao, RONG Na-na

2021, 30(5):  168-175.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0161

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“The Belt and Road” infrastructure PPP projects under multi-party cooperation are the foundation of connectivity. To ensure effective implementation ofprojects requires a scientific distribution of benefits. To build a reasonable profit distribution model, we argue that the expected benefits of the cooperative alliance established by the project participants are fuzzy and affected by many factors. Firstly, this paper builds an initial benefit distribution model which is constructed based on interval fuzzy Shapley value,then the influence factors of benefit distribution are identified and the input sharing degree of participants is quantified to introduce the initial model for correction, and based on this, the benefit distribution model based on the modified interval fuzzy Shapley value is further obtained. Finally, thispaperapplies this model to examples. The results show this model can accurately measure the influence factor, which has significant advantages as a whole.

Industrial Spatial Dual Network for Regional Undertaking of Industrial Transfer between Financial Development and Resource Endowment

CAO Wei, LIU Chun-hu, MIAO Jian-jun

2021, 30(5):  176-181.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0162

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In our study, the social network analysis method is used to analyze the industrial spatial dual network based on the factors of financial development and resource endowment. The results show that financial development and resource endowment have a positive impact on the industrial space network. Our country's various regions have met the requirement of undertaking industrial transfer. Further, after the QAP test, the two networks can promote each other. Finally, this paper determines the core nodes (provinces and cities) and the reasonable path of undertaking industrial transfer in our country through the construction of industrial space 2-model network, which indicates that the rational distribution of resource endowments in developed regions and stronger financial development support are both the key to building a modern industrial system in underdeveloped regions. The results of this paper can provide the corresponding theoretical reference for the regional undertaking of industrial transfer in China.

Study on the Optimal Path of Mineral Resources Exploitation under the Uncertainty of Discount Rate

CANG Ding-bang, WEI Xiao-ping, CAO Ming

2021, 30(5):  182-187.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0163

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The discount rate is quite important for determining the inter-generational allocation of a mineral resource. First, the optimal exploitation problem of mineral resources is studied under the uncertainty of discount rate and the expected rate of change of the price is also given; Next, the optimal resource tax is discussed under the monopoly and uncertainty of discount rate.The results show that the uncertainty reduces the expectations of price change path and has no effect on the ad valorem tax. But there exists a reverse relationship between the uncertainty and specific tax.

The Optimal Investment Strategy with Stochastic Inflation Risk Based on Semimartingale Theory

LI Juan, XIA Deng-feng, FEI Wei-yin

2021, 30(5):  188-192.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0164

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This paper constructs a financial investment model including tradable risk assets,nontradable risk assets and contingent claims under the framework of semimartingale theory. We conduct a study of the exponential utility maximization problem of investment managers' terminal real wealth. The optimal investment strategy and the exact solution of value process with stochastic inflation risk are solved with filter theory, semimartingaleand backward stochastic differential equation theory. According to the results of numerical analysis,the optimal investment amount of tradable risk assets decreases with the increase of expected inflation rate,and the investment value first increases and then decreases. Especially, when the inflation volatility is infinitely close to the nominal price volatility of tradable risk assets,the inflation risk can be fully hedged, and investors will continue to increase the investment in tradable risk assets, in order to maximize the exponential utility of the terminal real wealth. The research results provide a more scientific theoretical reference for the investment decision-making of the financial market.

Research on the Synergy Development of Regional Industrial Technology Supply and Demand Based on Vague Sets Distance and Grey Incidence Theory

LUO Qi, HE Xi-jun

2021, 30(5):  193-199.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0165

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Effective synergy of technology supply and demand (TSD) is an important driving force for the high-end development of industry. The paper considers the development level, coupling and synergistic effect of industrial TSD subsystem, combining vague set similarity measure with distance cooperative model, measures relative degree of development of TSD subsystem in high-tech industry, application of grey incidence analysis to calculate the grey incidence between TSD Subsystems, and constructs the synergy development model of regional industrial TSD based on vague set distance and grey incidence theory. Empirical analysis is made by using the data of TSD synergy level of high-tech industries in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(Jing-Jin-Ji) region from 2009 to 2016.The empirical analysis results show that: the synergy development of the three regions is in the stage of low developed and high synergy, and the comprehensive synergy development level is in slow growth. The interaction between supply and demand subsystem is significant. The technology demand development of Beijing and Tianjin is faster and the demand is insufficient, but the demand of Hebei is strong and the supply is insufficient. Therefore, it is an effective way to lead the industrial development by taking into account the high quality development and synergy matching of the regional TSD.

Analysis of the Difference and Coordination of the Green Development of Jing-Jin-Ji's Industry Based on the Theory of Rough Set and Unascertained Measure

WANG Shao-hua, LIU Ye, ZHANG Wei, HE Mei-xuan

2021, 30(5):  200-207.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0166

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For the coordinated development among Jing-Jin-Ji, the green development of industry is the key breakthrough. This paper constructs the evaluating index system of regional green development of industry, including four criteria, namely, industrial resource utilization, industrial environmental quality, industrial environmental management, industrial economic growth, as well as 16 specific indices, based on the connotation of green development and referenced to The Green Development Index System of the four ministries. The theory of rough set and unascertained measure are used to reduce the index, calculate the weight of each index and set the grading standards, and the green development of Jing-Jin-Ji's industry is comprehensive measured by multi-indexes. Based on this, the coordination is quantified by constructing a coupling coordination degree model. The results show that: (1)There are great differences in the green development of Jing-Jin-Ji's industry. The fluctuation of Beijing and Tianjin is frequent,and Hebei province has an obvious rising trend, but all of them have reached the medium or higher level. (2)The green development of industry in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is affected most significantly by industrial environmental management, industrial resource utilization and industrial environmental quality. (3)Jing-Jin-Ji's industrial resource utilization, industrial environmental management and industrial economic growth and are in endangered area, industrial environmental quality is in reluctant coordination zone, and the green development of industry is in quality coordination zone. Therefore, on the one hand, the green development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei industry should focus on industrial environmental management, industrial resource utilization, industrial environmental quality, and must pay attention to the coordinated green development among Jing-Jin-Ji's industry.

Management Science

Hasse Graph Analysis of Employee Performance Ranking Robustness under Variable Weight Condition

GAO Ya, YUE Li-zhu, ZHOU Zhi-qiang

2021, 30(5):  208-213.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0167

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Performance ranking is the most concerned part of the performance appraisal process, which is also an “active volcano” causing controversy. Therefore, this paper uses the Hasse graph of partial order set method to identify ranking disputes and control ranking risks, so as to improve the sense of organizational justice and employee satisfaction. First, this paper takes the uncertain weight as the starting point, and reconstructs the performance appraisal model using the theory of partial order set method to obtain the Hasse graph of employee performance ranking which can visually show the hierarchical clustering and unrobust ranking of employees. And in addition, this paper discusses the layering methods and properties of Hasse graphs. The results show that the ranking of comparable employees in Hasse graph is stable. For non-comparable employees, performance ranking is unstable. The example analysis shows that the performance appraisal model constructed by partial order set method can help control the risk points in the evaluation ranking and improve the quality of employee performance evaluation.

Founder Control, the Length of Control Chain and Real Earnings Management

LI Bing-xiang, ZHANG Tao, TAO Rui

2021, 30(5):  214-220.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0168

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From the perspective of the length of the control chain, to explore the impact of pyramid structure on the real earnings management of family business is helpful to further enrich the understanding of pyramid structure, which has important research value. Based on the data of family listed companies with pyramid shareholding structure in China's a-share market from 2012 to 2016, this paper empirically tests the relationship between the change of control chain length and the family's real earnings management. The results show that the length of the control chain is positively correlated with the degree of real earnings management. After grouping the samples according to whether the ultimate controller is the founder or not, this positive correlation still holds in the sample of family business controlled by non-founders, but does not hold in the sample of family business controlled by founders. Using the propensity score matching(PSM)method, further analysis finds that the degree of earnings management of family businesses controlled by founders is significantly lower than that of family businesses controlled by non-founders.

Research on the Impact of Webcast on Customer Trust in O2O Takeaway

DING Jia-min, CHEN Jun-fei

2021, 30(5):  221-226.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0169

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Webcast is a real-time video mode based on the rapid development of the Internet. Its content cannot be tampered with and has a good positive effect. O2O Takeaway is a kind of catering O2O thattakes the internet as the medium, customers order online and enjoy offline distribute service. However, the problems of food safety happened frequently in recent years, which has led to the decline of customer trust. This paperconstructs a structural equation model of the influence of webcast on customer trust in O2O takeaway. And then it makes an empirical studythrough the questionnaire survey. The results show that the content, main body, mode, time and number of live broadcasts have significant positive impacts on customer trust. Finally, according to the conclusions,suggestions are put forward to improve the customer trust of O2O takeaway and the development of webcast.

Research on industrial Structure Upgrading and Green Total Factor Productivity in The Yangtze River Economic Belt

LI Gen-zhong, ZHU Hong-liang

2021, 30(5):  227-231.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0170

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The upgrading of industrial structure in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is conducive to the improvement of green total factor productivity. This article selects nine provinces of the Yangtze river economic belt in the sample data from 2008 to 2019, using the expected output of SBM directional distance function and Malmqusit index, does a research on the upgrade of industrial structure and energy efficiency interaction dynamics. From regression coefficient, the influence of green TFP on upgrading industrial structure to promote the green role of total factor productivity in the upstream and downstream performance is significant, but not in the middle stream. Therefore, we should start from the industrial development policy that adapts to local conditions, actively cultivate the cooperation mechanism of “government administration, enterprise and society”, and improve green total factor productivity.

Research on Multi-agent and Multi-level Equilibrium Problem of Industrial Core TechnologyBreakthrough

PENG Ying, GUO Ben-hai, CAO Xiao-xiao

2021, 30(5):  232-239.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0171

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The research and development of industrial core technology has the characteristics with large investment, long period, and difficult breakthrough. It needs to take the path of multi-subject participation, multi-level interest balance and step-by-step technology breakthrough. Based on this, the principal-agent game model between “government-enterprise” and the multi-party cooperative game model between “government-enterprise-academic research institution” are constructed respectively based on the different stages of industrial peripheral technology development and core technology breakthrough. By solving the model and making use of numerical simulation, the profit-loss relationship between the players and the key factors affecting their behaviors are analyzed. Thispaper demonstrates that the main factors affecting the development of peripheral technology include the level of innovation efforts of enterprises, government incentives, risk aversion of enterprises and the degree of information asymmetry between government and enterprises, while the main factors affectingcoretechnology breakthroughs include government incentives, innovation costs ofindustry-university-researchcooperation, the probability of technology to achieve breakthrough methods, etc. Correspondingly, the strategies at different stages should also be designed around the above factors.