Table of Content

25 August 2019, Volume 28 Issue 8

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multi-attribute Decision Model Based onEvidence Perspective and Multi-reference Points

CHEN Xiao-hong, MA Zhi-yong, LI Xi-hua

2019, 28(8):  1-9.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0168

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For the problem of multiple independent reference points and the correlation between attributes in intuitionistic fuzzy multiple attribute decision making, we consider the decision support function of intelligent sensing devices further and propose an intuitionistic fuzzy multiple attribute decision making model based on multiple independent reference points and evidence perspective. The proposed model firstly uses the evidence theory to fuse multiple sensor data and get the mass function of multiple decision states. Secondly, given multiple independent reference points, we use value function to get the value matrix based on multiple reference points in multiple decision states. Further, for the correlation between attributes, we use fuzzy integral to get the comprehensive evaluation value of alternatives in multiple decision states. Thirdly, in order to sort all the alternatives and select the best one, we use DS-IFIOWA operator to get the overall value based on the comprehensive evaluation value of alternatives in multiple decision states. Finally, numerical examples are used to verify the validity and feasibility of the model.

A Method for Dynamic Multi-Attribute Decision Making ofInterval Number Based on Error Propagation and Connection Number

CHEN Wei, LI Jin-qiu

2019, 28(8):  10-18.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0169

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A method for dynamic multi-attribute decision making of interval number based on error propagation and connection number is presented. In this method, the attribute interval weight is determined by using the error propagation model, and taking into account both the accumulation and growth rate of decision information in the multi time period, the time varying weight is determined; using the UDWA operator to gather all the decision time periods of attribute interval weights obtaining the comprehensive attribute interval weight, and the IWAA operator to gather the decision-making information under different attributes, we get the comprehensive decision matrix. According to the theory of set pair analysis, the ranking of alternatives is obtained by using the connection number and projection membership degree. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by the example of R&D partner selection of a high patent intensive enterprise.

Study on Evolutionary Game of the Central and Local GovernmentsEnvironmental Protection Behavior under Public Participation

LIU Xin, MENG Wei-dong

2019, 28(8):  19-26.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0170

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Based on the public’s participation, this paper constructs an environmental protection evolutionary game model of environmental protection between the central government and local governments based on bounded rationality theory, to analyse the strategy choice of local and the central governments about environmental protection. The results show that the central government regulation income, regulatory costs, the negative impact on the reputation of local governments caused by environmental inaction, local environmental protection investment and returns, and the possibility of the environmental inaction found by the public are all important factors affecting the behavior of both sides. Regulatory revenue’s increase and the decrease of cost will help to improve the enthusiasm of the central government. The public’s political evaluation of local environmental inaction is an effective way to improve local government’s efforts. The participation of the public is an important method of cracking information asymmetry and urging the central and local government to take active environmental measures. Finally, combining theoretical analysis and practice, we put forward the incentive measures to protect local government’s efforts to carry out environmental protection work.

Evolutionary Game and Simulation Study on the Act of ControllingAir Pollution between the Local Governments

LI JUN-jie, ZHANG Hong

2019, 28(8):  27-34.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0171

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The implementation of local government’s control of air pollution is a direct factor affecting regional air quality. The paper studies the factors affecting local government's behaviors of air pollution control. From the perspective of evolutionary game, the content of the paper explores the evolutionary process of making decisions that curb air pollution by local government itself and local governments from different regions. The research shows that such behaviors do help to enhance the effectiveness of local governments’ efforts to control air pollution: the central government's spot checks, the subsidies for local governments’ control cost,the increase of rewards and penalties for local governments and regional joint governance actions among them. The research results show that multi-dimensional governance, interactive monitoring, and interest compensation are of great significance for improving the effectiveness of local air pollution control.

A Game Analysis Among Public transport, Shared cars andPrivate Cars Based on Evolutionary Game Theory

XIAO Hai-yan

2019, 28(8):  35-40.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0172

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Traveler choice behavior analysis is an important part of the transport system. With the development of the city, the mode of travel can be divided into three categories: public transport, auxiliary public transport and private transport.On the basis of previous studies, we use the evolutionary game method to study the game relationship among public transport, shared cars and private cars, simulate travelers’ choice behavior, and analyze the stability of equilibrium point and parameter conditions .Through the model simulation experiment, we get the result that the proportion of the evolution results depends on the benefits, subsidies, losses and additional benefits. It is necessary to increase public transport facilities, congestion charges and subsidies for shared cars and ancillary services.

An Unified Method for Determining Index Weight Based on IntervalEvidence Random Sampling under Hybrid Uncertainties

YAN Ying, BIN Suo, GAN Mi

2019, 28(8):  41-47.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0173

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As the complexity of evaluation problem and limitation of experts’ knowledge and experiments, there are various types of uncertainties in group decision making information. The method of translating hybrid uncertain information for interval evidence body uniformly is studied, which includes epistemic uncertain information, multi-interval probabilities, and incomplete information. Hybrid uncertainties quantify the remark grades, and the probability distribution function of index importance is constructed with fused information. Last, Monte Carlo sampling is used to determine the index weight. The numerical examples show the effectiveness of proposed method.

Supply Chain Combined Contract Design under Supply andDemand Uncertainty Considering Bilateral Efforts

LI Xiao-mei, ZHANG Guang-jun, LIU Ren-jing, XU Qing-chuan

2019, 28(8):  48-58.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0174

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This paper studies the supply chain combined contract design under supply and demand uncertainty with bilateral efforts. We consider a secondary supply chain system consisting of a supplier and a retailer, in which the supplier’s efforts influence the uncertainty of production and the retailer’s efforts influence the uncertainty of market demand. Firstly, by means of the Stackerberg Game Model, the optimal profit of the retailer and supplier is calculated under decentralized decision making and compared with the optimal profit of supply chain under centralized decision-making.Because of the dual marginal effect, the overall profit of the decentralized supply chain is less than that of the centralized. Based on that, this paper designs the buy-back and cost-sharing combined contract to coordinate the supply chain, derives the expression of repurchase price and cost-sharing coefficient and obtains the optimal expected profit of suppliers and retailers. The results show that the combined contract can not only coordinate the supply chain, but also can distribute the supply chain profit arbitrarily under certain conditions. Finally, the decision variables and expected profit of both parties are analyzed through numerical calculation.

Research on Supply Chain Scheduling Optimization under TMC Mode Basedon Multistage Fuzzy Scale Effect Quantification

LI Min, SUO Li-sai, YAO Jian-ming

2019, 28(8):  59-68.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0175

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The key of the implementation of Tourism Mass Customization is to deal with the contradiction between the “scale effect” of tourism activities and the “personalized demand” of tourists through the scheduling of tourism supply chain. Based on the theory of economics and fuzzy mathematics, we analyse and deal with the multistage fuzzy scale effect under TMC mode. The multi-objective supply chain scheduling optimization model is built under TMC mode, which includes the minimization of service cost based on scale effect quantification, the maximization of the customer satisfaction based on the fuzzy time window and the maximization of the supply chain synergy. Finally, ant colony algorithm is applied to solve the problem of multi-objective scheduling optimization under TMC mode, and the optimization effect is compared. The research results show that there exists multistage fuzzy scale effect in TMC scheduling, and it can be quantified; The scale effect of TMC mode has a reasonable interval range. Tourism enterprises should pay attention to the balance between scale effect and other goals; Ant algorithm not only has fast convergence speed in solving the multi-objective optimization problem in TMC mode, but also shows that the algorithm can quickly achieve multi-objective optimization and excellent performance.

Study on “Slotting Allowance+Revenue Sharing” Contractfor Supply Chain Coordination

ZHAO Ju, WANG Yan, HU Xiao-jian, SUN Cui-ying

2019, 28(8):  69-75.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0176

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In self-service retail environments such as supermarkets, the product’s perceived quality often affects sales’. Product perceived quality depends on not only the objective product quality, but also the amount of allocated shelf space. Based on the demand function of price and perceived quality, this paper establishes a centralized decision model of supply chain and aretailes-dominant Stackelberg game conaidewing whethet to change a statting allowanctor not under consignment contracts, and study the product pricing and shelf space display strategies of manufacturers and retailers. We provide a supply chain coordination strategy of slotting allowance+revenue sharing. The research results show that: the optimal retail price of products under a decentralized supply chain environment is not always higher than that of the centralized environment. That is to say, improving perceived quality can modesate the double marginal effect to some extent under the decentralized supply chain environment. In aeld on the revenue sharing model of the slotting allowance can realize the perfect coordination of the supply chain, which theoretically shows that the slotting allowance model is reasonable in a certain market environment.

Study on Supply Chain Network Equilibrium ConsideringQuality Control and Loss Aversion

WANG Dao-ping, ZHAO Chao, CHENG Yan-ping

2019, 28(8):  76-85.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0177

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This paper considers supply chain network equilibrium based on quality control and loss aversion. The optimal economic behavior of players in the supply chain network is portrayed by way of variational inequalities theory, and a supply chain network equilibrium model is constructed. Then, the equilibrium pattern in terms of existence and uniqueness results is provided. Further, the Quasi-Newton method is built to solve the equilibrium model. Finally, a numerical example is given to conduct sensitivity analysis of parameters of the proposed model and the parameters include loss aversion, the qualified rate of products, compensation and so on. Through the analysis, the impact of quality control and loss aversion on the solution of the equilibrium model and player’s profit can be revealed. The study shows that as the loss aversion of retailers increases, the expected utility of the retailer will increase, and the more loss aversion the more utility increase. On the other hand, manufacturers can reduce the loss from loss-averse retailers through increasing product qualification rate. While the degree of loss avoidance reaches a certain value, the manufacturer’s profit is hardly affected by it. Improving the level of product qualification rate can increase the manufacturer’s profit and the retailer’s desired utility. The loss-averse behavior of retailers reduces the incremental utility that results from a higher qualification rate. It’s helpful for manufacturers to improve product quality by receiving compensation.

Combined Strategy Based on Clustering and Dynamic Programmingfor Picking Routing in warehouse

FENG Ai-lan, ZHANG Xiao-qing, KONG Ji-li

2019, 28(8):  86-92.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0178

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In order to improve the efficiency of picking, this paper puts forward a new guidance strategy based on clustering and dynamic Programming for the picking routing in multi-block warehouse, which achieves the balance of the time for generating path and the length of path, and applies it to multi-block warehouse successfully. The strategy can be divided into four steps: Firstly, classify the picking bits by cluster analysis. Then, take the first and last points of each class as nodes, and use the dynamic programming method to sort the obtained classifications to get the corresponding class order. Next, determine the internal routing per class. Finally, pick the items in turn and get the picking routing length. After presenting the new routing strategy, this paper compares the new strategy with the previous heuristic strategies such as S-shape, Largest Gap, and Combined and ACO algorithm through simulation, getting the result: The newly proposed routing strategy has a good feasibility, applicability and practicability.

Collaborative Scheduling Optimization Model for Community Evacuation under Demand Uncertainty Condition

ZHANG Bai-shang, FU Wen-biao, TANG Pan, SHAN Si-qing, YIN Ru-fa

2019, 28(8):  93-99.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0179

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For recent years, incidents have hit communities frequently. How to complete the task of resident evacuation is an important problem in public administration. Besides the requirement of varieties of transport tools for collaborative transportation, community evacuation is often characterized by the uncertainty of resident quantity. However, the current studies neither pay much attention to collaboration mode of evacuation with varieties of transportation tools nor consider the uncertainty of resident quantity. Considering the uncertainty caused by resident quantity, this paper constructs fuzzy chance constrained programming model for community evacuation through the coordination of varieties of transportation tools, aiming to accomplish the targets of evacuated victims maximized and evacuation cost minimized. Importantly, this paper designs adaptive genetic operators to improve multi-objective genetic algorithms to enhance the optimization efficiency. Lastly, this paper takes an example to test the proposed model, which proves the proposed model and method have high efficiency in the collaborative scheduling optimization for community evacuation under the condition of uncertainty demand.

Strategy of Imperfect Maintenance Replacement Based on Censored Shock Model

HE Lan, MENG Xian-yun

2019, 28(8):  100-106.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0180

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In this paper, a new censored shock model is proposed based on traditional censored shock model, which takes into account the failure of extension state for the change of the failure threshold value and the maintenance time caused by the deterioration of the system. Taking the minimum cost as the goal and the steady-state availability as the constraint condition, a model of imperfect replacement strategy for replacement strategy N is established, and three kinds of common lifetime expectation of shock arrival interval distribution are given. Finally, the validity of the model is verified by an example, and the sensitivity analysis of the parameters is carried out.

Application Research

Improving the Efficiency of Port State Control Using Bayesian Network

FAN Li-xian, ZHANG Zi-meng, YIN Jing-bo

2019, 28(8):  107-115.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0181

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To improve the efficiency of port state control(PSC), this study investigates the impact of various factors on ship accident along with the port state’s detected deficiency items. Very importantly, it manages to identify the structural connections between the checked deficiency items. The data used in this study are mainly from Lloyd's register of shipping(LR), International Maritime Organization(IMO)and Tokyo Memorandum of Understanding (Tokyo MOU), with a total of 5478 observations obtained for the bulker vessels. The Bayesian Network(BN)model is employed and the Greedy thick thinning(GTT)algorithm and Bayesian search(BS)algorithms are used to learn the structural networks. It then employs K-fold, Loglikelihood, AIC and BIC validation methods to choose the optimal model for structure explanation. In addition to the impacts of the deficiency items and the ship inherent attributes on ship accident, this study identifies some key deficiency items for port states. It also analyzes the intense connections between the key deficiency items with others. This helps simplify the port state’s inspection procedure and improve operational efficiency.

Optimal Internet-based Real Estate Financial Contract Based on Bayesian Learning

ZHENG Jun, HU Rong

2019, 28(8):  116-125.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0182

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The development of Internet finance innovation in real estate finance is an important direction for the current financial market innovation. This paper uses dynamic moral hazard theory to study the optimality and economic characteristics of Internet real estate financial contracts. At the same time, considering the dynamic characteristics of contracts, the article considers the influence of participants' Bayesian learning on the optimality of Internet real estate finance. It is found that, in order to encourage good credit financiers to work hard while excluding bad credit financiers, Internet real estate financial contracts need tonot only tradeoff the incentive costs and benefits to choose the appropriate incentive intensity, but also consider the information rent brought by the information advantages of the financiers.

Research on Financing Mode for Capital ConstraintedManufacturer in Green Supply Chain

YANG Hao-xiong, DUAN Wei-yu

2019, 28(8):  126-133.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0183

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In order to solve the problem of financial constraints imposed by manufacturers due to increased investment in green products, this paper considers whether retailers should participate in financing in the production of green product supply chains.Using the Stackelbery game method, the effects of retailer's advance payment financing model and bank loan financing model with price discount on the optimal pricing decision in the supply chain under decentralized decision-making and centralized decision-making are studied respectively. The best decision for both manufacturers and retailers in different financing models is given.The studies have shown that in the case of centralized or decentralized decision-making, in the green product supply chain where manufacturers are constrained by funds, retailers should adopt a financing model with an advance payment discount of 0 to the participating manufacturers.At the same time, for the supply chain of green products, retailers should adopt incentives for manufacturers to promote green technology innovation to produce greener products, thereby expanding the market to enhance competitiveness.Finally, the conclusions are further verified by numerical analysis.

Research on Revenue Sharing Contract Coordination for a Risk-averse andPromotional of Retailer under Second Order at the End of the Period

LIU Cai-yun, YANG Zhi-lin

2019, 28(8):  134-140.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0184

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Under the second order at the end of sales season, the decision-making for a risk-averse and promotional retailer under revenue sharing contract is studied by using CVaR risk measurement criterion, and some managerial insights are developed. The production decision of risk neutral manufacturer under two production modes is discussed. It explores the coordination of revenue sharing contract, analyses the relationship between parameters, and draws the following management enlightenment: The more risk-averse the retailer is, the less the first order quantity is; the manufacturer’s first production quantity is not necessarily the first order quantity, and speculative production can be made to gain additional profits in the case of second order. under the revenue-sharing contract, when the wholesale price is fixed and the retailers with different risk attitudes order the equal amount of commodities, the more risk-averse the retailers are, the less the proportion of revenue-sharing is. If the manufacturer wants to increase the share of revenue, the first wholesale price will be reduced.

Service Pricing Formation Mechanismof PPP Project Under the Fixed Concessionary Period

HE Shou-kui

2019, 28(8):  141-149.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0185

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In this paper, a model is built to research the pricing formation mechanism , compensation mechanism and social efficiency in public project in public private partnership. Firstly, this paper analyzes the service price bidding price principle under the fixed concessionary period and its shortcomings. Secondly, since government constitutes public project controlled price feasibility gap subsidy according to the cost and operational performance of project company,we establish a model to analyze the pricing level and the feasibility gap subsidy standard when implementing agencies can observe the service cost of PPP projects, induce social investors to report the real operating cost and operating performance through system design to obtain the maximum net present value when the implementing agency cannot accurately grasp the operating cost of the project company. The analysis shows that the net present value of a project is higher than that when the government does not regulate price; when the demand for project services is flexible, the contract stipulates to subsidize the feasibility gap of the project company. Some conclusions on PPP mode service price, operational performance, consumer surplus, private enterprise’s profits and social efficiency in different cost information and controlled condition are analyzed and verified. For the sake of avoiding the decrease of operational performance and loss of social welfare, government should establish scientific monitoring prompting mechanism,determine the service price and feasibility gap subsidy amount based on the information of supply cost and operational performance.

Study on Relationship among Equity Structure、Quality Level and VFM:Based on Highway PPP Project

HU Zhen, CAO Ying, LIU Hua

2019, 28(8):  150-155.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0186

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The government formulates the effective incentive measures that could encourage the project company to develop professional construction and operation capabilities effectively, for the PPP project of Highway is a quasi-operating project with operating income. In this paper, we take VFM as government performance evaluation index, construct a complete information static state game model and study the relationship among ownership structure, quality level and VFM of PPP project .The results show that although it is beneficial that the social capital controlling more shares of the project company can help raise the VFM level, the government still needs to control the shareholding ratio of the social capital in a certain range to ensure projects’ quality as well as VFM can be maximized to reduce government risks and improve social benefits as the proportion of the social capital party increases and the quality of the project continuously decreases. In the highway PPP project, the government should stimulate the project company to improve the project quality and bring good performance level to both public and private parties by optimizing equity decision-making.

Regulation of Trilateral Moral Hazard of Crowd Innovation Platform Basedon Overconfidence and Default Compensation

WU Shi-jian, SUN Xiang-yan, ZHOU Zhong-bao

2019, 28(8):  156-163.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0187

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Based on complex principal-agent relation among crowd innovation platforms, venture investment organization and venture company in the operation of investment-oriented maker space, a trilateral moral hazard analysis model is constructed. By introducing the overconfidence tendency of crowd innovation platform and default compensation mechanism of venture investment organizations into model design, the behavioral selection of moral risk regulation of all interest subjects are explored. The results show that overconfidence tendency has a dual influence on trilateral financing structure, not only reducing the moral risk of venture companies, but also favoring the default tendency of investment platform and increasing agent cost and moral risk of venture investment organizations. Default compensation mechanism can effectively regulate trilateral moral hazard, not only reducing noncompliance of venture investment organizations, but also mitigating the moral risks of investment platform and venture companies.

Research on Selecting Equity Incentive Mode Based on ANP Method

HU Wen-xiu, LI Miao, ZHANG Jian-feng

2019, 28(8):  164-173.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0188

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This paper discusses the issue of how to select equity incentive mode scientifically and rationally. It not only takes into account the factors of enterprise features in previous literature, but also considers the other two factors of incentive object and external environment at the same time. This paper puts forward the index system of equity incentive mode selection, analyzes the dependencies among these indexes, and establishes the ANP network model based on these. It selects two representative sample enterprises to verify and apply the method. Finally it makes different enterprises select the equity incentive mode according to their own actual situation, and verifies the rationality and feasibility of the model.

Operational Risk Aggregation Measurement of Banks Basedon PSD-LDA and Copula Function

CHEN Qian, LIANG Li-jun

2019, 28(8):  174-181.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0189

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The aggregated modeling and measuring multidimensional operational risk is a crucial step for operational risk management. Based on the characters of “heavy tail” and “truncation” of operational risk, the model and numerical method of integrated measurement of operational risk are discussed. Firstly, the very popular univariate loss distribution approach is extended to piecewise-defined severity distribution approach(PSD-LDA), doubly-truncated distribution is used for severity distribution fitting of high severity low frequency losses instead of traditional full distributions, and POT model is applied to capture “fat tail” feature of low severity high frequency losses. Secondly, based on PSD-LDA, Copula function is utilized to describe the dependence structure while the single and complete marginal severity distribution of risk cell is replaced by the separated and truncated distribution, and the Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is studied. Last, all the models and methods are tested with 246 operational losses. The results show that the PSD-LDA performs more effectively and stably, and the application of the Copula function has the advantage in capturing dependency structure of multiple risk cells, which allows the allocation of capital and hedge operational risk in a more efficient way than the standard approach.

Management Science

Effects of Knowledge Sharing Strategies on Organizational Learningfrom the Perspective of Status Difference

DONG Jia-min, LIU Ren-jing, YAN Jie, YANG Jing-yu

2019, 28(8):  182-189.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0190

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Organizational learning has been regarded as an important way to improve the competitiveness of enterprises, where interpersonal learning is a critical part of the organizational learning. It is pervasive that there are status differences among organization members, which directly influence individuals’ knowledge sharing and lead to an indirect effect on the organizational learning eventually. However, previous research models in organizational learning usually ignored the status differences among members, assuming they have the same status implicitly. Therefore, this study expands the classic model of organizational learning by introducing the feature of the status. The effects of positive differentiation strategy (where higher status members have higher intentions to share knowledge), negative differentiation strategy (where lower status members have higher intentions to share knowledge), and homogeneous strategy (where members of different statuses have the same intentions to share knowledge) on organizational learning are systematically investigated. The results indicate that effects of different strategies are significantly divergent. In general, only when the status is highly recognized by the members, and the level of knowledge sharing intention is low, the homogeneous strategy would be the most conducive strategy for organizational learning. In other situations, the negative differentiation strategy is the most conducive strategy for improving organizational learning performance.

Solving Bi-objective Reentrant Hybrid Flow Shop Scheduling Problemsby a Hybrid Discrete Grey Wolf Optimizer

YAO Yuan-yuan, YE Chun-ming, YANG Feng

2019, 28(8):  190-199.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0191

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Reentrant hybrid flow shop (RHFS) scheduling problems have extensive applications in high-tech manufacturing industries such as semiconductor wafers and thin film transistor-liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD) panels, but appear under-studied in the literature. Firstly, a bi-objective mixed-integer programming model for the RHFS scheduling problems with the makespan and total tardiness criteria is formulated. Then an improved multi-objective grey wolf optimizer (IMOGWO) that hybridize with the fast nondominated sorting strategy, crowding distance technique and elitism is proposed to solve this problem. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed IMOGWO, which is compared with two existing evolutionary multi-objective algorithms such as NSGA-II and MOGWO based on some small-sized benchmarking instances. The results have shown the validity of this approach. The numerical test results indicate that the proposed IMOGWO algorithm is significantly superior to the NSGA-II and MOGWO in terms of the convergence to optimal solutions and the dominance of solutions, but the spread of the nondominated solutions explored by the three algorithms are almost at the same level.