Table of Content

25 July 2019, Volume 28 Issue 7

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

The large Group Emergency Decision Making Method Based onLarge Data Analysis of Risk Preference of Decision-makers

XU Xuan-hua, YANG Yu-shan, CHEN Xiao-hong

2019, 28(7):  1-10.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0145

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According to the complex and unpredictable risk-preference of emergency decision group members, a new large group emergency decision method based on large data analysis of risk preference of decision-makers is proposed in this paper. First, the expert group responds quickly to the emergency, and generates some contingency plans and their risk attributes information. Secondly, through the network and other channels the public participates in emergency decision-making and form a large group of decision-making, giving different preplans preference values. Then, this paper uses evidential reasoning algorithm to get the public's risk utility value for each plan, and combines the preplan risk utility value with the preplan preference value to get the risk preference of large group decision makers of each plan. Finally, based on the risk preference value, this paper uses the big data analysis technology to identify the risk preferences of large groups, and selects the risk neutral group to form a new emergency decision-making group. The structure of the members of the emergency decision group can be obtained by reclustering and on this basis, the decision maker's weight and the final utility value of the emergency plan are calculated, and thus the order results of emergency plan also are obtained. Finally, the effectiveness and feasibility of the method are verified by an example analysis.

Multiple Attribute Decision-making Method of Intuitionistic LinguisticConsidering Psychological Behavior of Decision-maker

LIU Ning-yuan

2019, 28(7):  11-16.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0146

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Aiming at the linguistic multi-attribute decision making problem in which intuitive linguistic sets are used to express decision information, a decision-making method is proposed on the basis of considering the decision maker’s bounded rational psychological behavior. The method constructs the benefit-loss analysis matrix of the scheme by comparing the score function and the exact function between the schemes under each attribute. Considering the decision-maker’s psychological behavior of dependence and loss avoidance, the priority of benefit-loss value of each alternative is calculated relative to that of other alternatives under each attribute. On this basis, the comprehensive priority of alternatives is calculated, and the alternatives are ranked according to their size. Finally, an example is given to verify the validity and rationality of the proposed method.

Evolutionary Game Research into Indefensible ProductHarm Crisis in Social Media Environment

JIANG Jin-gui, ZHANG Qi, SHEN Dan-wei, SONG Yan

2019, 28(7):  17-25.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0147

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The popularity of social media changes the information dissemination model, and makes the evolution of product harm crisis change. This paper builds the evolutionary game model for the indefensible product harm crisis in social media environment, and integrates it into prospect theory to construct benefit matrix. It makes an analysis of evolutionary stability strategy for the indefensible product harm crisis in social media environment. Through the numerical simulation, it is found that the evolution of indefensible product harm crisis in social media environment exists: the change of loss aversion has an asymmetric impact on enterprise and consumer benefit loss; reasonable government compensation can guide both enterprise and consumer in the strategy adjustment, which is conducive to the rapid appeasement of crisis; the external intervention has an asymmetric impact on enterprise-consumer responsibility, and the intervention of public opinion has a responsibility restraint effect on enterprise behavior.

Multiple Attribute Decision Making Method for HesitantTriangular Fuzzy Based on Prospect Theory

WANG Juan, JIN Zhi-xin, DENG Cun-bao, FANG Bo

2019, 28(7):  26-33.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0148

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For multiple attribute decision making problems, in which the attribute weights are unknown completely and attribute values are in the form of hesitant triangular fuzzy element, the decision making method based on the prospect theory and fuzzy structured element is proposed. Firstly, according to the fuzzy structured element theory, the structured element form and Hamming distance formula of hesitant triangular fuzzy element are defined. Then, an optimization model based on the distance deviation of attribute values is constructed and the weight vector of attributes is obtained through solving the model. Furthermore, based on the main idea of prospect theory, the positive-ideal point and negative-ideal point are regarded as the reference points. And the income matrix and loss matrix are constructed respectively. Moreover, according to the method of TOPSIS, the relative closeness of each scheme is calculated to rank the alternatives. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the validity and feasibility of the proposed method.

Quality Defect Guarantee Decision in Logistics ServiceSupply Chain with Fairness Concern

DU Ni, ZHOU Sheng-chao

2019, 28(7):  34-43.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0149

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This paper incorporates the supply chain members’ behavior characteristics with fairness concern into logistics service supply chain. The Nash bargaining solution is regarded as the fairness reference point of the supply chain members. A model for service quality defect guarantee decision is established in the logistics service supply chain with Nash bargaining fairness concern. We analyze the impact of fairness concern on the optimal strategies, profits and utilities. The results show that the logistics service quality defect rate guarantee decreases in the fairness concern coefficient of the logistics service integrator, and increases in the fairness concern coefficient of functional logistics service provider; the logistics service quantity decreases with the fairness concern coefficients of logistics services integrator and functional logistics service provider; as the logistics service provider’s fairness concern increases, the expected profits and utilities of two members and the whole supply chain decrease; but given that the fairness concern of functional logistics service provider is at a certain degree, the expected profits and utilities of two members and the whole supply chain increase as the fairness concern of logistics services integrator coefficient increases.

Online Supply Chain Coordination of Credit pay and Revenue Sharing Contract

BAI Sh-izhen, TAO Yang-hong, YAN Zhang-hua

2019, 28(7):  44-54.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0150

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In order to analyze the impact of free credit pay on online supply chain, this paper studies a supply chain consisting of a supplier and an online retailer under e-commerce . The supplier provides a free credit term for the online retailer. Then the credit term would have an impact on retailer’s order quantity. But the retailer may have two different choices to pay for the product he orders. The first choice is to pay before the credit term and the second is to pay beyond the credit term although the retailer should pay extra fee for the expected payment. Under two different conditions, then we separately compare the models of decentralized decision and centralized decision and conclude that the system cannot achieve the optimal order quantity. So a model of revenue-sharing contract is designed to improve the order quantity of the retailer based on credit pay.And the optimized order quantity based on the contract is given. It is concluded that the optimal order quantity increases with the delay time of payment but it is not the case when the actual time of paying exceeds the free credit term. Furthermore, a revenue-sharing mechanism based on the model for distributing the profit and improving the operational performance of entire supply chain is analyzed. Finally we develop a detailed numerical example to illustrate the model and some meaningful management implications.

Research on Closed-loop Supply Chain Modeling of LCV-HEI Class EOL Products

CHENG Dong-bo, HUO Jia-zhen

2019, 28(7):  55-63.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0151

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This paper takes end of life(EOL)product recycling as the research object, quantitatively analyzes the decision making problem of low commercial value and high environmental impact EOL products. Through the construction of EOL product dual closed-loop supply chain and multi closed-loop supply chain model, the EOL product recovery strategy of each model is solved and compared with the traditional single closed-loop supply chain, which proves that the closed-loop supply chain is superior to the traditional single closed-loop supply chain. It is found that, under the conditions of government supervision and subsidy intensity, and the same external market variables, the EOL product recovery of the multi closed-loop supply chain is greater and the recycling is more fully utilized. And with the increase of the number of external circulation of the multiple closed-loop supply chain, both the recovery of EOL products and the profits of the recyclers increase, and the profits of the internal circulation manufacturers are also in the same way. In addition, the profit of the seller is not affected. Finally, an example analysis of the multi closed-loop supply chain is carried out, and the above conclusions are verified. It provides a reference for the government to make a better use of supervision and subsidy to allocate market resources.

Evolution Game of Logistics Alliance withConsidering Input Elements and Market Power

CHEN Xin-tong, LI Bang-yi, WANG Zhe, MA Xiao-ping, ZHOU Yang

2019, 28(7):  64-71.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0152

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In view of the differentiation among the members of the logistics alliance, this paper studies the evolution and stability of the logistics alliance. According to enterprise’s input elements and market power, the alliance members can be divided into three categories. And the evolutionary game model between the three is constructed. This paper analyzes the factors that influence the strategy choice of game players, and establishes the conditions for the stability of the three parties’ strategies through model analysis. The results show that the punishment of alliance, the transaction cost among members and the profit of speculation have significant influence on the selection of alliance members and the stability of the logistics alliance. The incentive and preferential policies among the alliance members can promote more active cooperation of the alliance members than theunilateral alliance punishment.

Using System Dynamics to Assess the Impact of Object Identifier-UnifiedDegree on Logistics Resource Integration

ZHU Hui-qi, HOU Han-ping

2019, 28(7):  72-80.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0153

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To study the impact of object identifier-unified degree on logistics resource integration, a system dynamics feedback mechanism model is built based on system dynamics theory. The data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China and “Report of China Logistics Development” since 2002 is used to design model variables. Through regression analyse, equations representing the relationship between variables are determined. Logistics resource utilization, logistics industry total revenue and the ratio of cooperation between enterprises are used as indexes to measure logistics resource integration level in this model. Then an analysis of their relationship with object identifier-unified degree is made through the dynamic simulation software Vensim. The simulation results show that object identifier-unified degree has a positive influence on logistics resource utilization, logistics industry total revenue and the ratio of cooperation between enterprises. The study finds that improving the situation of object identifier-unified degree can effectively make communication among enterprises better and promote the logistics resource integration level to increase the role of the logistics industry in achieving sustainable economic growth.

Location-distribution Integrated Optimization considering CarbonEmissions under the Congested Road Condition

REN Hui, WANG Dong-yu

2019, 28(7):  81-90.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0154

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The transport process of the supply chain network is one of the main sources of carbon emissions. Road congestion, distribution distance, vehicle load and other factors will affect the carbon emissions. This paper studies the location-distribution integrated optimization considering carbon emissions under congested road conditions. The road congestion is defined according to the vehicle running state. Taking the congestion probability and the expected congestion distance at different time periods as the determinants of road conditions, we construct a two objective model with minimum economic cost and carbon emissions. Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) is designed to obtain the Pareto solution set. We build a supply chain network centered on Beijing and Tianjin with heavy environmental problems to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the model and algorithm. The results of the experiment give the construction scheme of the supply chain network under different preferences. The sensitivity analysis is made for the congestion probability and the expected congestion distance under different time periods as well as the vehicle load. The experiment results show that the impact of urban road on carbon emissions is more sensitive than that of expressway at different time periods.

Identifying Influential Nodes Based on Network Topology

DENG Xiao-yi, YANG Yang, JIN Chun

2019, 28(7):  91-99.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0155

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Identifying influential nodes in complex networks has been widely applied in reality. Conventional methods consist of local metrics and global metrics, and Eigenvector Centrality(EC)algorithm is the most representative method in global metrics. EC algorithm regards all nodes in network as one community and calculates the influence of nodes by considering the node influence of their neighbors. However, EC algorithm ignores the topology structure of community networks in reality, where nodes’ neighbors may come from different communities with different clustering coefficient. To address this issue, this paper proposes an Accessibility Centrality(AC)model based on the network topology. Firstly, the adjacency matrix is considered as the feedback path, and nodeinfluence is computed through different pathswith different length. Then, node influence from every step is revised, due to existing noise in the paths. At last, every nodes’ influence (AC value)is calculated via the revised result in the previous procedure. To evaluate the performance of our method, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered(SIR)model and Susceptible-Infected(SI)model are employed to simulate the process of influence propagation on four real networks. Comparing with Eigenvector Centrality, Betweenness Centrality, Degree Centrality and LeaderRank algorithms, the results show that our method obtains the highest accuracy.

Analysis of Spatial-temporal Pattern Evolution of EcologicalEnergy Efficiency in China and Its Influencing Factors

MENG Fan-sheng, ZOU Yun

2019, 28(7):  100-107.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0156

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Based on the statistical data from 2006 to 2017, the paper analyzes the eco-energy efficiency, its influencing factors with the static evaluation model constructed by the PP-SFA combination model and the evolution of spatial-temporal pattern with-Converge approach and speed incentive model. The results show that there is a positive correlation among urbanization level, economic openness, population size, R&D investment, and eco-energy efficiency. China’s eco-energy efficiency pattern has spatial distribution and accumulation characteristics, but the distribution is not balanced. The time fluctuation pattern is complex, showing a trend of a decrease and then an increase.

Application Research

Optimal Ordering and Issuing Policy for Platelet Inventory ControlProblem Based on Markov Decision Process

LI Cai, GENG Na, WANG Chun-ming

2019, 28(7):  108-117.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0157

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Blood is a special and rare resource, and transfusion of blood can be used clinically to treat patients for some blood diseases and may even save lives. Since blood cannot be manufactured, and can only be donated, effective inventory management is needed to make efficient use of the limited blood resource. Recent researches show that the shelf life of platelets is limited and the utility of transfusion platelet declines with the increasing of storage time. This paper studies the inventory control problem of the platelets. To balance the shortage, the wastage and the freshness of the transfused platelets, this paper proposes a finite horizon Markov Decision Process(MDP)model with the objective of maximizing the total utility. By solving and observing the optimal ordering and issuing policy, this paper proposes a heuristic policy, and numerical results show that this heuristic policy is close to the optimal policy and superior to the traditional policy.

Spatial Spillover Effect Analysis of Inter-regional Technology Innovation in China

PAN Xiong-feng, AI Bo-wei, MING Yang

2019, 28(7):  118-124.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0158

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This paper sets up an external overflow index model of technological innovation based on spatial geographic distance, and conducts a decomposition research on the spillover effect of China’s regional technology innovation, using the panel data of 30 provinces from 2006 to 2014. The results indicate that: (1)National technology innovation spillover effect is mainly led by the east of China, which means that the provinces in the east have spillover effects of technological innovation on the other provinces in the eastern, central and western areas; however, the central and western ones have no spillover effects of technology innovation on other areas; there is also a competition effect between central and western regions. (2)As for the whole China and the eastern, central or western regions, R&D funds, R&D personnel and knowledge stocks show positive effects on technological innovation; technology innovation outputs are at the decreasing stage of the scale return, whose difference is that R&D personnel of eastern and central regions make greater contribution to the technology innovation than R&D funds, while the R&D funds of western provinces make greater contribution to the technology innovation than the R&D personnel.

Research on Spatial-Temporal Distribution Evolution of ScientificResearch Institutes Cooperation Innovation Activity

LI Bai-zhou, DONG Heng-min, ZENG Jing-wei

2019, 28(7):  125-132.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0159

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Based on statistical data from Chinese Academy of Sciences between 2008 and 2013, this paper first applies theconvergence andconvergence to objectively describing the spatial distribution characteristic and change trends of scientific research institutes cooperation innovation activity from the space dimension. From the time dimension, using the acceleration excitation model to make the empirical study, this paper analyzes the speed characteristic, which fuses the evolution speed state and evolution speed tendency of the scientific research institutes cooperation innovation activity. The empirical results show agglomeration features in scientific research institutes cooperation innovation activity in spatial distribution: cooperation innovation activity is relatively active in the eastern regions, less active in the central region and relatively inactive in the western region. From the trend of changes in the non-equilibrium of scientific research institutes cooperation innovation activity, the whole Chinese Academy of Sciences showsconvergence andconvergence. From the angle of cooperation innovation activity’s evolution speed, each Branch of Chinese Academy of Sciences shows apparent disparity in development trend. Some scientific research institutes which have strong cooperation innovation activity show growth saturated and growth speed changes present state of decline.

Study on the Evolution of the Servicizing Strategy of Bounded Rational ManufacturingCluster under the Condition of Government Various Incentives

ZHANG Jian, LIAO Meng-jie, QI Lin

2019, 28(7):  133-143.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0160

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As an important boost for traditional manufacturing enterprises to realize the promotion to both ends of the value chain, manufacturing servitization is hindered by high servicizing costs and great difficulty in transformation. The rationality of servitization transferring policy-making has played an important role in manufacturing industrial upgrading. Focusing on the oligopoly and general enterprise in manufacturing cluster, an evolutionary game model is established based on the evolutionary game theory which explains the servicizing strategy of bounded rational manufacturing cluster under the condition of government various incentives. Besides, visual system simulation is carried on concerning the path of the servicizing strategy of oligopoly and general enterprise in manufacturing cluster. The results show that the rationality of government incentives directly affects the manufacturing cluster servitization transferring. Policy-makers should avoid a policy dilemma: manufacturers are not able to choose a service strategy. This study provides a theoretical foundation and a feasible solution for setting the incentives levels of the manufacturing servitization.

A Model of Media’s Effect on Reported Stocks’ Market Performance:from the Investor Attention Perspective

ZENG Xian-ju, ZHANG Ya-hui, FENG Geng-zhong

2019, 28(7):  144-152.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0161

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Based on the fact that in the Chinese stock market individual investors constitute the majority of the market, who have relatively lower rationality, this paper constructs a theoretical model to discuss the two aspects of media’s effect on stocks: easing the information asymmetry and causing investor’s attention effect. The results show: first, the price of reported stock is affected by attention effect and shows an attention premium; second, the trading volume of attention investors is enlarged after the media report and buy-sell-imbalance exists; last, as compensation to limited rationality, the higher investors’ attention is affected by media report, and their trading profit is lower. This paper looked into how media eases information asymmetry and causes attention effect under a unified framework, helped to further explore how media affect stock market, and provided inspirations for regulators to make full use of the media to promote the healthy development of the stock market.

Credit Expansion, Production Structure, and Cyclical Economic Fluctuation

GUO Xin-shuai, LI Qi-fang, LI Xiao-dong

2019, 28(7):  153-159.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0162

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This study draws credit expansion as the cause of economic fluctuations, and explains the cyclical fluctuations of the Chinese economy from 2001 to 2015 through the distortion effect of the production structure in the economy. The WIOD and WIND databases are used to construct an econometric model to test the proposed hypotheses. The results show that credit expansion leads to an unsustainable extension of the entire production structure and is shortened during the recession; in terms of output fluctuations, both the high and low stages are larger than the intermediate stage; but in terms of price indices, the volatility increases in turn as the stage increases. Overall, the results validate the applicability of the framework to explain China's economic fluctuation.

Research on the Traffic Congestion Charging Fee Model inUrban Areas Based on SD-GM Approach

JIA Shu-wei, YAN Guang-le

2019, 28(7):  160-168.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0163

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With the accelerating pace of China’s urbanization construction, traffic congestion is in constant increase. At the same time, it produces a large amount of NOx every year due to vehicle exhaust emission. Hence, it gives rise to serious air pollution (such as “haze pollution”). To solve the problem, from the perspective of environment and society, this article uses the approach of integrating system dynamics and grey model theory (SD-GM) to construct an urban traffic congestion charging model, through the simulation and decision analysis to seek the feasible strategy for reducing traffic congestion and vehicle exhaust emission. Through the realistic and sensitivity test, we find that the traffic congestion charging fee shouldn’t go beyond 100 yuan/day*vehicle. The main findings are summarized as following: (1)When the traffic congestion charging fee ranges between 25~45, the amount of NO_x, attraction degree of car trips and degree of traffic congestion decrease with the increase of the traffic congestion charging fee, while the per vehicle area of road has a rising trend. (2)But it doesn’t mean that the traffic congestion charging fee is the bigger, the better, for it has an opposite effect when traffic congestion charging fee is higher than 40 yuan/day*vehicle. Finally, compared with base run simulation, we can obtain that the amount of NO_x, amount of car trips, attraction degree of car trips and degree of traffic congestion are reduced by about 33.76%, 39.64%, 43.26%, 82.25%, respectively, and the per vehicle area of road increases by around 65.68%, which verifies the validity and practicability of the model.

Pricing Research of Ride-hailing Platform:From the View of Inter-Group Network Externality

LU Ke, ZHOU Jing, LIN Xiao-wei

2019, 28(7):  169-178.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0164

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With the development of mobile Internet, a variety of new travel modes with characteristics of two-sided market are emerging and new transportation management problems also arise. Based on the theory of two-sided market and considering the inter-group network externality, the pricing problem of ride-hailing platform is studied from two aspects, i.e. both travelers and drivers are single-homing and travelers multi-homing while drivers single-homing. Moreover, the factors of time sensitive parameter and driver’s commission rate are introduced to characterize the feature of ride-hailing industry. Finally, the pricing structure, the scale of consumer and profit of platforms are obtained. The results indicate that the relationship between price, profit and inter-group network externality, time sensitive factor depends on the user structure. Further, the price and profit are negatively related to service differentiation, which also leads to lower user scale on the situation of travelers multi-homing. Finally, the increase of driver’s commission rate leads to a lower price charged to travelers, higher price charged to drivers and lower profit when both sides are single-homing. However, when travelers are multi-homing, the relationship between price charged to drivers and driver’s commission rate also depends on the relative strength of inter-group network externality from both sides.

Dual-channel Pricing Strategy Based on Choice Preference ofTime and Channel Sensitive Customer

ZHANG Xue-mei, LI Ying-ying

2019, 28(7):  179-186.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0165

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With the development of network technology, the network marketing model has been rapidly developed. Network channel provides the convenience for customers, while it also provides a chance for manufacturers to expand market share and increase profits. Rational pricing strategy has significant impact on a firm’s competitive edge. By considering the time sensitivity of network delivery time and the acceptance degree of network channel by customers, the manufacturer’s pricing strategy problem of the single-channel and dual-channel is investigated. The research results indicate that, the pricing of the retail channel is the same in the two kinds of sales mode, and the pricing of the network channel is lower than that of the retail channel. Meanwhile, manufacturers can increase the market share by introducing the network channel, reduce customer time sensitivity and increase network channel acceptance degree, so as to improve the profit. Through numerical experiments, the effects of delivery time sensitivity and network channel acceptance degree on enterprise decision are analyzed, and the optimal decision of single channel and dual channel is compared.

Management Science

Investigating the Property of Feasible Solution Hybrid Flow ShopRobotic Cell Scheduling Problem with Blocking

ZHAO Xiao-fei, GUO Xiu-ping

2019, 28(7):  187-191.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0166

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Property of feasible solution hybrid flow shop robotic cells scheduling problem with blocking is researched. Firstly, robotic activity is defined to transfer robotic move sequence and part input sequence into robotic activity schedule, thus, two dimensions scheduling problem can be transferred to one dimension scheduling problem; secondly, feasible robotic activity schedule is proposed, and a few properties which are the same as feasible robotic activity schedule is addressed; finally, a number of properties of feasible solution is developed. According to these properties, theoretical foundations are provided for solving hybrid flow shop robotic cells scheduling problem with blocking.

Research on Semiconductor Batching Scheduling Problemswith Learning and Forgetting Effects

YE Chun-ming, HOU Feng-long, ZHAO Jing

2019, 28(7):  192-199.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0167

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Semiconductor manufacturing system has significant characteristics such as large scale, multifarious craft, randomness and reentrant. Based on the processing batch scheduling, which is the final testing phase of semiconductors, we apply the learning and forgetting effects to the semiconductor scheduling which is the typical batch scheduling problem, and build a batch scheduling model with the learning and forgetting effects. Combining with the scheduling problem and scheduling model respectively, we propose a two-level algorithm(particle swarm optimization algorithm & firefly algorithm), and through the simulation experiments we verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the two-level algorithm in solving the model of the batch scheduling with the learning and forgetting effects. And we discuss the influence of the learning and forgetting effects on semiconductor batch scheduling comparing with the results of the optimal makespan in the experiment, which is of important guiding significance for actual semiconductor production.