Table of Content

25 September 2019, Volume 28 Issue 9

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Research on Comprehensive Protection Model for Protective Engineering

MA Feng, ZHU Wan-hong, NI Ming-fang

2019, 28(9):  1-5.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0192

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The research on comprehensive protection technologies for protective engineering has emerged as an important issue for strengthening the role of protective engineering and improving the survival probability. By employing the optimization model of comprehensive protection, different comprehensive resources can be well used, thus any scientific decision-making supports for construction and renovation of the project can be provided properly. This paper studies the reasonable setting of the comprehensive protection for protective engineering. An optimization model of comprehensive protection is formulated. To solve the model easily, theoretical analysis on equivalent conversion of the model is conducted. Finally, we provide an application example to illustrate the validity of the model.

Emergency Shelter Location Problem Considering Residents’ Choice Behavior

CHEN Gang, FU Jiang-yue, HE Mei-ling

2019, 28(9):  6-14.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0193

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The emergency management department should decide which emergency shelters would be opened when emergency events occur. Unlike other facility location problems, residents with bounded rationality could choose whether to take refuge or not and which open shelter to go. In order to minimize the number of people who are not being served, it is important to consider the bounded rationality of the residents. To this end, a utility function is constructed based on the competition location theory considering the factors such as the refuge distance and the attraction of shelters. Under this circumstance, the multinomial logit model is used to describe the bounded rational choice behavior of residents, and an emergency shelter location model is established based on the bounded rational choice. Another two location models are proposed based on utility optimal choice and system optimal principle respectively to verify the reasonability of the bounded rational choice model. To solve the problems efficiently, two heuristic algorithms, simulated annealing algorithm and genetic algorithm are designed based on the characteristics of the model. The numerical results verify the feasibility and practicability of the model and algorithms, and show that residents’ rational degree, the number of open shelters and the budget have a significant impact on the emergency shelter location decisions.

Cooperative Stability Analysis of the Collaborative Innovation of Civil-Military Integration Based on the Perspective of Evolutionary Game Theory

FANG Wei, WANG Chan, LI Zheng-feng

2019, 28(9):  15-26.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0194

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Collaborative innovation is an important foundation and internal impetus for civil-military integration strategy. For exploring the stability of the collaborative innovation of civil-military integration across the military filed and , by using evolutionary game theory we set up the evolutionary game model for military and civilian firms based on the limited rationality. We analyze the long term evolutionary results and the factors that affect the stability, based on Matlab simulation. The results show that the stability analysis between the two sides of the game is positively related to the cooperation revenue, breach of contract and government incentives, and negatively related to the basic income, R&D cost, information communication cost, technical secondary conversion cost, risk cost & betrayal benefit. There is a reasonable distribution factor of revenue that contributes to the stability of cooperation, and we offer the basic standard of government incentives. At last, we come up with some pieces of practicable advice to boost the stability of process.

Group Decision Making Method with Hesitant Intuitionistic Fuzzy Linguistic Information Based on Archimedean t-norm

YU Jin-tao, WANG Jin-shan

2019, 28(9):  27-32.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0195

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In order to solve the problem of unclosed subscript operation of linguistic term set, the closed operation system under the hesitant intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic information based on Archimedean t-norm is discussed. Firstly, the hesitant intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic set based on the Archimedean t-norm is proposed. Then the corresponding score function, accuracy function, rules of collation and aggregation operators are given. Based on the set above, a method of group decision making is presented to solve real problems. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the effectiveness and the superiority of the method.

Research on Green Supply Chain Pricing Decision Considering Risk Aversion under Government Subsidies

FU Duan-xiang, ZHANG Zi-yuan, YUAN Bai-yun

2019, 28(9):  33-40.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0196

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In the context of government subsidies, the game models are established to study the impact of government subsidies, the manufacturer’s and retailer’s risk aversion on green supply chain pricing decision, product green degree, profits of channel members and total channel profit. The results show that: The unilateral risk aversion of the manufacturer or the retailer is beneficial to the other party, but the difference is that product green degree, wholesale price, retail price and its own profit will be lower, while the total channel profit will have both an increase and a decline cases when only the manufacturer is risk aversion. When only the retailer is risk aversion, the product green degree and the total channel profit will rise, and the wholesale price, retail price and its own profit will have both an increase and a decline cases. The increase of government subsidies will aggravate the damage of the manufacturer’s risk aversion to its own profit and product green degree to a certain extent, but will weaken the damage of the retailer’s risk aversion to its own profit, and enhance the lifting effect of the retailer’s risk aversion to the product green degree to a certain extent.

Shapley Value for the Intuitionistic Fuzzy Coalition Cooperative Games with Choquet Integral

NAN Jiang-xia, GUAN Jing, WANG Pan-pan

2019, 28(9):  41-46.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0197

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In this paper, Shapley value of the intuitionistic fuzzy coalition cooperative games is studied. Based on the fuzzy interval Choquet integral, the interval characteristic function of the intuitionistic fuzzy coalition cooperative games is obtained, and its properties are studied. Extending the method of Shapley value of fuzzy coalition cooperative game, the formula of Shapley value of intuitionistic fuzzy coalition cooperative game is given. The proposed formula avoids the subtraction of interval numbers and satisfies the axioms of classical cooperative game. Finally, the validity and applicability of the proposed method are illustrated with the numerical example.

Pythagorean Group Decision Making Method and Its Application in Green Supplier Selection

SHI Ming-hua, XIAO Qing-xian

2019, 28(9):  47-56.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0198

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In view of multi attribute group decision making problems in which the attribute valuesare Pythagorean fuzzy numbers and the criteria weights are unknown, a method based on D-S theory and PFHWMSM operator is proposed. Firstly, the expert’s fuzzy measures and weights are obtained from decision information matrix. Then, a Pythagorean fuzzy hybrid weight MSM operator is introduced to aggregate the attribute information, and obtain the comprehensive evaluation information of expert. Then, using the evidence combination method to infuse the comprehensive evaluation information, the comprehensive evidential information is obtained. Moreover, the trust interval of alternatives can be built, which is used for decision making. Finally, the green supply chain selection case analysis and comparison illustrate the feasibility and rationality of the proposed group decision method.

Study on the Long-term Equilibrium and Causality of the Influencing Factors of China’s Per Capita Carbon-Based on Structural Break ARDL Model and VECM Model

LIU Jin-pei, SONNG Xiao-xia, CHEN Hua-you, WANG Guan-zhen, WANG Zhen

2019, 28(9):  57-65.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0199

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To explore the low-carbon economic development path of China, this paper profoundly analyzes the long-term equilibrium, short-term dynamic relationship and Granger causality among economic growth, urbanization, technical innovation, foreign trade and per capita carbon emissions by collecting time series data in China over the period from 1985 to 2014, in which the BP endogenous structural breaks test, the autoregressive distributed lag modeling(ARDL)with structural break points and the Granger causality test based on vector error correction model(VECM)are employed. The empirical results show that there is a long term co-integration relationship between per capita carbon emissions and explanatory variables in China. There is an inverted-U relationship between the economic growth and carbon emissions in the long-term. The improvement of urbanization can effectively reduce per capita carbon emissions. There is a significant negative correlation between technical innovation and per capita carbon emissions. However, trade openness will cause environmental degradation. In the short-term, trade openness has a positive impact on per capita carbon emissions, and the impacts of other variables on per capita carbon emission are not significant. In addition, Granger causality test indicates that there are causal relationships between all explanatory variables and per capita carbon emissions. In the meantime, there is a two-way causal relationship between economic growth, trade openness and per capita carbon emission.

Trilateral Game Research into Carbon Emission Verification under the Conditions of C&T

PAN Yan-chun, YANG Wen, MA Jian-hua, MA Nan, CHEN Zhi-min, ZHOU Ming

2019, 28(9):  66-74.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0200

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A trilateral game model is built to analyze the behavior among generating company, third-party of carbon emission verification and government under the conditions of cap-and-trade(C&T). The equilibrium of this trilateral game is then obtained. Given current re-verification mechanism of government, the optimal emission intensity reported for generating company is also analyzed. Our research reveals the following results. Firstly, the current re-verification mechanism of government, i.e. the re-verification probability increases with the difference between the emission intensity reported and the emission intensity for reference, is unreasonable to some extent. Especially when the real emission intensity is larger than the emission intensity for reference, it may lead to the collusion between generating company and third-party verification organization. Secondly, if relative emission allowance is allocated, the increase of emission intensity is more likely to result in collusion behavior than the increase of total carbon emission. Furthermore, higher collusion risk exists in large generating companies with high industrial added value. Finally, when the re-verification probability of government increases to some specific extent, the collusion between generating company and third-party verification organization can be effectively controlled. The research results of this paper are beneficial to the policy making of carbon emission re-verification for government.

Evolutionary Game Analysis of Business and E-commerce Platform in Two-sided Market

LI Sen-biao, XING Wen-jie

2019, 28(9):  75-84.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0201

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The phenomena of “Two Choices One” and “Many Choices One” in the Internet economy havearoused widespread concern in many sectors of society at home and abroad. Under the above real context, this paper sets up some related parameters and variables hypothesis based on actual conditions, and establishes an evolutionary game model of business and e-commerce platform involving exclusive competition in two-sided market. The evolutionary equilibrium strategies of business and e-commerce platform under different conditions are obtained, and we also analyze the influence of parameter variation on evolutionary equilibrium strategy. Finally, the numerical experiment verifies equilibrium results of system evolution. The research results have practical significance for managers’ decision-making of businesses and e-commerce platforms, as well as the effective supervision of government departments on unfair competition.

Order Consistency Test and Adjustment of Fuzzy Complementary Matrices Based on Partial Ordered Set

WU Wei, GU Dan

2019, 28(9):  85-90.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0202

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A new representation method based on the partial ordered set is proposed to solve the controversial and complicated problem of ordinal consistency test and adjustment of fuzzy complementary matrices. Based on the definitions of partial ordered set, fuzzy complementary matrices, truncated set matrix and other related concepts, the truncated set matrix with the level of 0.5 is obtained. The ordinal consistency of fuzzy complementary judgment matrix and the equivalence of the truncated set matrix with the level of 0.5 as partial order relation matrix are proved. The sufficient and necessary condition for the complete ordinal consistency of fuzzy complementary judgment matrix is that any truncated set satisfies transitivity, and any truncated set satisfies transitivity and the equivalence of partial order relation matrix. The results show that the ordinal consistency of the fuzzy complementary matrix can be checked by transforming the truncated set matrix with the level of 0.5 into the Hasse matrix. The complete ordinal consistency of fuzzy complementary matrix can be achieved by adjusting each truncated set matrix to satisfy transitivity and assignment. Finally, two examples are given to verify the rationality and feasibility of the test and adjustment method.

Optimization of Multi-mode Cash Flow Balanced Project Scheduling Based on Random Duration of Activities

NING Min-jing, HE Zheng-wen, LIU Ren-jing

2019, 28(9):  91-98.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0203

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The balance of cash flow of the contractor during project execution is a key factor in ensuring the success of the project. This paper studies the multi-model cash flow balanced project scheduling problem based on stochastic activity duration. The purpose is to rationally arrange the activity execution mode and start time under the constraints of project duration and robustness threshold to achieve contractor cash flow balance. The optimization model of the problem is constructed to describe the study problem. Then the simulated annealing algorithm is designed to solve the problem. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the research. The conclusions are drawn as follows: Although the robustness threshold can guarantee the stability of the baseline schedule, increasing the robustness threshold level is not conducive to the contractor’s cash flow balance, and even if the value is too high, there is no feasible solution. This paper provides quantitative decision support for contractors’ cash flow control in uncertain environments.

Influence of Psychological and Emotional Factors on the RDEU Game Model of Urban Demolition and System’s Brittleness Analysis

XIONG Guo-qiang, ZHANG Yi

2019, 28(9):  99-106.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0204

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Considering the limitation of rational man hypothesis on the classical game theory, this paper studies the evolution of urban demolition conflict by combining the RDEU game model with complex system’s brittleness theory. Firstly, based on the new RDEU theory, it gives the RDEU excepted income function of the local government and the relocated household respectively and builds the RDEU game model of the urban demolition by incorporating player’s emotional factors into the expected utility function; and discusses the behavior evolution laws of the relocated household taking confrontational strategy and the local government taking forced demolition strategy under the influence of emotion. Then, on the basis of entropy and cellular automata, it builds the system’s brittleness evolution rule of urban demolition and simulates the brittleness excitation process of demolition disputes evolving to confrontation and conflict. The findings demonstrate that either for the relocated household or the local government, when they have pessimistic emotion, it is much more possible for them to take hardball tactics with the pessimistic emotion deepening, which shortens the time for urban demolition system collapsing, and demolition disputes will evolve to confrontation and conflict quickly. Lastly, the paper puts forward the countermeasures.

Application Research

Traffic Congestion and Air Quality: Evidence from Driving Restrictions

JI Lin, ZHANG Wei-qiang, HOU Ying

2019, 28(9):  107-116.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0205

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Because there are lots of sources of air pollution, it is difficult to define and distinguish pollution sources in general. For example, whether traffic jams aggravate the deterioration of air quality isnotclear. In this paper, a special instrumental variable is used to solve this problem. The peak hours of Beijing working day, cars are prohibited by the tail number., which provides some more rigorous evidence. Since Beijing carried out driving-restriction-policy, there has been an end-number-four phenomenon: whenever end number four of license plate is restricted, traffic congestion arises. This Chinese-culture-driven-phenomenon provides a novel approach to identifying traffic congestion. We collect hourly PM2.5 data from 35 monitoring stations and exploit difference-in-difference method to filter out potential contamination. The results show weekdays restricting end-number-four experience relatively 9.46%more increase from non-traffic-busy to traffic-busy hours. Traffic congestion has significantly reduced the quality of air.

Information Aggregation Method with Incentive Function Based on Distribution of Values

XU Shi-cun, YI Ping-tao, GUO Ya-jun, GONG Cheng-ju

2019, 28(9):  117-121.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0206

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Aiming at ranks division in incentive evaluation, a rank division method based on distribution of values is suggested in this paper. Compared with current rank division method, the situation of distribution of values is involved in this method, and then based on this method this paper extends traditional density operator and presents an information aggregation method with incentive function based on distribution of values. First, a novel rank division method is given from the point of distribution of values, and then cutting point of each rank is determined. Secondly rank factors are given, and we determine the attribute weights with values, ranks factors and cutting points, and then a method determining rank weight vector which does not need normalization is given. It can solve unfairness of normalization, so the final result is gotten by aggregating value. Finally, an example is used to check the method, and the result proves the method can have incentive objects scientifically and reasonably. The method can be used for a way of an incentive to staff in company, evaluation of provinces and cities, and selection of talents in school and so on.

Component Maintenance Cost in Multi-state Systems

DUI Hong-yan, CHEN Li-wei, BAI Guang-han

2019, 28(9):  122-127.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0207

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In multi-state systems, all components and system have multiple states. With the component degradation, the system performance decreases. In order to improve the system performance, component will be maintained. In this paper, based on the relationship between transition rates and sojourn time of component states, the importance measure is used to analyze the variation of the system maintenance cost. The important component influencing the system maintenance cost most can be got. Firstly, the calculation method of the importance measure based on the function of maintenance costs is described. Secondly, with the change of maintenance cost, the importance measure of different component is analyzed in the typical series systems and parallel systems. Finally, a numerical example is simulated to verify the correctness and validity of the proposed method.

Research on the Mechanism of Spillover of Asset Information in China ——Network Topology Analysis Based on Variance Decomposition

ZHOU Liang

2019, 28(9):  128-136.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0208

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The generalized spillover index method is used to discuss the information spillover mechanism between the three markets of China’s stock market, futures market and bond market from 2011 to 2017. The result shows that: the stock spill over to both the futures and the bond, while the stock and the futures have volatility spillover effect on the bonds; the overall spillover index value of the three markets is low, indicating that the impact between different capital markets in our country is relatively small. The time-varying characteristics also indicate that, in most years the stocks are in an overflow state, and futures direction is not clear, and the bond in most cases are being spilled. After analyzing the volatility spillover of the three markets before and after the stock market crash in June 2015, this paper finds that: the risk of the stock market is more likely to be transmitted to the futures market; the bond market is not easily infected by extreme risks.

Evolution of Livelihood in the Pearl River Delta Region Based on VagueSet

WU Hao-ran, WANG Er-wei, QI Yan-xin

2019, 28(9):  137-141.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0209

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Through a selected set of evaluation indicators, which include social development, economic development, ecological environment and improvement of livelihood,the livelihood of nine cities in the Pearl River Delta regionis evaluated by using ”real value as the standard evaluation”method. According to the results of the evaluation, the nine cities are divided into the outstanding development style, that is, the balanced development style, the non-balanced development style and the edge development style.

Financial Function Promotion and Dynamic Endogenous Club Convergence in Regional Financial Development

WANG Yu, CHENG Li-wei, WANG Xiao-na

2019, 28(9):  142-156.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0210

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Integrating the core idea of financial development into regional financial convergence research and constructing financial function promotion deciding financial convergence analysis framework, using financial scale and structure indicators and efficiency indicator computed by three stage DEA, combining dynamic spatial convergence model with endogenous convergence model to explore the convergence and hierarchy characteristic, we find that the financial scale presents convergence trend in the East, and the financial structure shows difference within the group, but realizes the match with economic structure; further the financial efficiency presents convergence trend, and the financial scale tends to converge in the West, but presents a poor matching degree with economic structure. Financial efficiency shows great difference within the group, neither has convergence trend; the Middle suffers the difficulty of scale expanding, structure optimization and efficiency promotion, presenting a diverging trend and low hierarchy characteristic. The within group heterogenicity causes a break of regional setting, performing a trans-regional dynamic endogenous club convergence path, reflecting the different hierarchy characteristic in regional financial development.

Research on Liquidity Risk of Financial Leasing Company

HUA Ting, SONG Ying-da

2019, 28(9):  157-166.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0211

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In order to study the liquidity risk of financial leasing companies, this paper firstly establishes a multi-period dynamic model of the cash flow process of leasing companies, and applies this model to quantitatively analyze the impact of the initial reserve fund, the renewing rate of maturity loan, and the rent on the liquidity risk. Then the default probability is used to measure the liquidity risk, and the problem is transformed into solving the probability distribution of the non-homogeneous Markov chain with increasing state space. And default algorithms(DA)and Monte Carlo method(MC)are designed to solve the first-time distribution. The example shows that increasing the initial reserve fund,the renewing rate of maturity loan, and the rent can effectively reduce the liquidity risk. Finally, the banks’ interest rates and different rent pricing methods are integrated into the basic model, and the impact of thelessee’s credit risk on the liquidity risk of the leasing company is further analyzed through three different rent pricing methods.

Exchange Rate Risk Hedging of Global Supply Chain under Demand and Exchange Rate Risks

DU Juan

2019, 28(9):  167-172.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0212

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Based on a global supply chain where the downstream retailer is faced with the demand risk and the exchange rate risk, this paper investigates the effect of the exchange rate risk-hedging (the foreign exchange futures hedging) on the global supply chain’s operations and risk management. Corresponding to whether or not the retailer buys the foreign exchange futures to hedge the exchange rate risk, two dynamic game models are established, and then the corresponding equilibrium is calculated. The equilibrium shows that the exchange rate risk-hedging increases the supply chain’s order quantity, raises the retailer’s expected revenue and certainty equivalent, and increases the supply chain’s total revenue. Furthermore, this paper investigates how these two risks influence the supply chain’s equilibrium decision variables and profitability in the case of the hedging. The results show that the exchange rate risk-hedging hinders the transmission of the exchange rate risk between the supply chain node firms, and achieves a tradeoff between returns and risks.

Management Science

Study on Chinese Industry Connectedness Based on Information Spillover Network

WANG Dan, HUANG Wei-qiang

2019, 28(9):  173-180.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0213

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Information spillover network is a channel of risk connectedness among different industries. The direction and strength of information spillover are closely related to the industries’ risk contagion characteristics. Using the generalized variance decomposition to establish industry return spillover networks and industry volatility spillover networks for the industry-level index of Shenyin & Wanguo Industries, this paper analyzes the total connectedness and dynamic evolution of China’s industry information spillovers from static and dynamic perspectives. The results show that the information spillover among Chinese industries is higher and stronger connectedness. However, the information spillover fluctuates and shows uncertainty with time. In the long run, it is highly consistent for return spillover networks and volatility spillover networks to identify and rank the systemically important industries. Nevertheless, in the short run there is a difference between them. Specifically, in the long term, bank and non-bank financial industry are the systemically important (information) accepted industries and the machinery and equipment industry is the systemically important (information) transmitted industries. In the short term, banks, non-bank finance, defense industry, food and beverage and household electrical appliances are systemically important industries, but their specific roles (accepted or transmitted information) are uncertain. Our findings have important implications for government industrial policy-makers and industrial regulators.

Product Pricing and Optimization Strategy of SMPEs with Customer Prepayment and Returns

CHENG Shuo, CAO Ming, CHENG Min-bao, ZHANG Gong-liang

2019, 28(9):  181-191.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0214

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Based on advance booking online of Small and Medium-sized producing Enterprises(SMPEs)with customers(prepaid and non prepaid), this paper researches the optimal pricing for maximizing the profit of the manufacturer under the demand function of certainty and randomness considering returns. Comparing the profits of the two sales modes, the criteria for manufacturers to choose different strategies are obtained. The quantity of products, the proportion of prepaid and the return which is sensitive to the price discount are further considered. The Lagrange multiplier is used to study the pricing and optimization of the manufacturer's products, and the approximate optimal solutions(pricing and discount)of manufacturer are obtained. Finally, a numerical is given to verify above conclusions and economic explanations are shown.

Research onPayment Scheduling Problems with Different Quality ——Take a Software Project as Example

CAO Ping, ZHANG Jian, XIONG Yan

2019, 28(9):  192-199.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0215

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Currently,project payment schedules with penalty structure model usually take time or cost as motivating factors, to restrain the contractor to ensure progress and cost savings. These schedules ignore the influence of project quality on the payment schedule, while quality of project is the main goal of the project management and the key factors influencing project success. Studying the influence of the project quality on payment schedule can help motivate the contractor to improve performance and ensure the quality of project. With software project as an example, the paper studies the project payment schedule problem taking quality of software products as incentive factor under certain capital constraint , and constructs two pay schedule optimization models to maximize the net present value of cash flow, from perspectives of contractors and clients, respectively. The two proposed models try to find optimized payment schedule by adopting bonus-penalty structure to balance profits between client and contractor. The two models analyse the influence of different performance levels by the contractor on benefits of both parties. Considering the characteristics of models, then, a hybrid algorithm of genetic algorithm and Tabu search algorithm are designed for solving the proposed models. Finally, a numerical example is given. The results show that the payment schedules of the project involving quality motivating factors have great influence on benefits of both parties, and provide them with decision-making support for payment schedule.