Loading...

Table of Content

    25 April 2024, Volume 33 Issue 4
    Theory Analysis and Methodology Study
    Research on Force Assignment in Multipoint Sealing and Controlling Action Based on GA-SA
    WANG Shuqin, HUANG Qian
    2024, 33(4):  1-6.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0104
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1368KB) ( )  
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Sealing and controlling action is an important military action, is often used in diversified tasks by the PAP, and has a very close relationship with the completion of diversified tasks. The force assignment problem in multipoint sealing and controlling action is how to assign force based on these actual situations, and these actual situations often contain the decentralized troop stations, the different force conditions (like equipment, the number and quality of force, etc.) of each station and the different distances from station to control point, etc. And at the same time, it is best to achieve the goal of minimizing the cost of completing the task and getting the maximum sealing and controlling action probability. Because the problem often contains multiple troop stations and task points, it is always a NP difficult problem when the problem scale is large. Finding the optimal force assignment plan for the problem becomes a thought-provoking question. In literature review, it is found that there are many studies about the force assignment problem of other military operations, but they seldom pay attention to the force assignment problem of multipoint sealing and controlling action of PAP. So, in order to find the optimal plan for the sealing and controlling action force assignment quickly and accurately, and improve the accuracy and scientificity of the sealing and controlling action force assignment further, a force assignment model for multipoint sealing and controlling action is established, this model contains two objective functions, one is maximizing the sealing and controlling action probability of each control point, and the other is minimizing the total moving distance of all groups, the model considers the different sealing and controlling action probabilities and moving distances of each group.
    Because the model is a multi-objective mixed integer programming model, and contains maximum-minimum objective function, when the problem scale is large, it will be difficult to obtain its optimal solution by traditional algorithms. So a Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithm is proposed. Based on the genetic algorithm, this GA-SA has been improved in the following five aspects. Firstly, the algorithm uses decimal coding, sets the number of genes of the chromosome to n, The numbers on the chromosome are composed of 1 to m(m is the total number of sealing and controlling points), and the number of sealing and controlling groups of station i occupies ni bits of the chromosome(ni is the number of the groups that can be assigned in station i), from $\sum_{j=0}^{i-1}$ni+1 bit to $\sum_{j=0}^{i}$ni bit of the chromosome. Secondly, the fitness function is constructed by the following formula, where the good solutions and bad solutions are well distinguished.
    $f_i=\min _{j=1,2, \cdots, m}\left\{w_j^a\left(\frac{d_{\min }}{d_i}\right)^b\right\}$,i=1,2,…,popsize.
    Where, wj is the sealing and controlling probability of point j in chromosome i,di is the total distance of chromosome i,dmin is the minimum total distance of all chromosomes, a,b is the weigtht parameter. Thirdly, the algorithm improves the selection, crossover, and mutation operators based on the problem. Fourthly, the ability to find the optimal solution of the algorithm is further enhanced by using simulated annealing operations. Fifthly, the algorithm uses elite strategy, lets the best solution of each generation avoid genetic manipulation and keeps it directly for the next generation, and in this way, the convergence of the algorithm is ensured well. In order to verify the effectiveness and superiority of the GA-SA, this algorithm is implemented using MATLAB language. And the repeated experiments are conducted based on a numerical example with 8 control points and 10 troops stations. At first, the parameters a and b of the fitness function are analyzed in these experiments, and their optimal value is selected. Then, repeated comparative experiments are conducted on the GA-SA, GA and SA by using the same numerical examples under the same conditions. In the experiment, it is found that the running time of GA-SA is slightly longer than the other two algorithms, but its convergence speed is fast, and its optimal solution is better than the other two algorithms, In the 500 iterations, GA-SA get the biggest minimum sealing and controlling probability(0.87595), the maximum fitness function value (0.055888) and the shorter total moving distance(1518.4854),and the optimal force assignment plan is determined by the GA-SA at last. However, due to the randomness of the algorithm, the results are uncertain in each 500 iterations, and because of the many parameters in the algorithm, the coupling design of parameters needs further research.
    Impact of Shipping Order Volume Uncertainty on the Optimal Pricing Decisions of a Freight Sharing Platform
    LI Jianhong, DING Xiuhao, LEI Minghao, LUO Xiaomeng
    2024, 33(4):  7-13.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0105
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1122KB) ( )  
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    The location and regional division of distribution centers play a crucial role in the logistics and distribution process, directly affecting the time and cost of distribution. Especially in the current field of e-commerce, this link is particularly important. Based on the minimum right coverage of domestic e-commerce, this paper discusses the optimization research of distribution center siting and regional coverage. The research significance of this paper is to provide a theoretical basis for pharmaceutical e-commerce logistics management, optimize the logistics management of pharmaceutical e-commerce enterprises, improve customer service and promote the development of pharmaceutical e-commerce market.
    The article establishes a corresponding integer planning model based on the data of a head pharmaceutical e-commerce company in China. By establishing an integer planning model for the distribution center location problem in the pharmaceutical e-commerce industry, the distribution center is restricted to deliver only to adjacent demand areas and incorporates the delivery time. The problem is described by the minimum power vertex covering method, and the model is solved using the priority queue branch limit algorithm to obtain the optimal siting result. Finally, according to the principle of minimum freight cost, the possible repeated coverage of the region is subdivided to obtain the final distribution center location and regional division scheme. In this paper, considering the special characteristics of pharmaceuticals, the improved siting scheme proposes to retain the original distribution center and determine new peripheral siting points to reduce the interference of the existing network and better meet the requirements for rapid distribution of pharmaceuticals. The location of the new site is calculated based on the sales volume and logistics data, combined with the minimum power vertex coverage method. The re-siting scheme proposes to re-site all the nodes of the demand node to rationally plan the whole network and improve the distribution efficiency, and solves the integer planning model using the priority queue branching limit algorithm to obtain the optimization results. In addition, the real data of pharmaceutical e-commerce enterprises are also used to verify the effectiveness of the model, and the results show that this paper effectively saves the efficiency of order delivery time while optimizing the operating cost of the distribution center.
    The empirical study confirms that for the upcoming self-built logistics network of pharmaceutical e-commerce enterprises, re-node distribution center location and regional division in the warehouse leasing and distribution of time-sensitive are a better option. For enterprises that already have a distribution center, on the basis of the original distribution center, a new distribution center for the party to maximize the benefits is added to them. This paper proposes the distribution center site selection and regional division of the program for pharmaceutical e-commerce logistics network planning to provide theoretical and practical guidance to improve the enterprise’s logistics efficiency, service quality and market competitiveness, and also in line with national and local government policy guidance, to achieve the refinement of the management of the important significance. Pharmaceutical e-commerce distribution center site selection and regional coverage optimization issues in the future also need to be in the field of intelligent technology, environmental sustainability, cross-border e-commerce development, the construction of same-city distribution network and other areas of more detailed conditions of application, so as to promote the sustainable development of the entire industry.
    Vehicle Routing Problem of Multi-trips for Perishable Product Delivery with Considering Individual Customer Satisfaction
    WANG Nengmin, LIANG Xinyue, ZHANG Meng, HE Zhengwen
    2024, 33(4):  14-20.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0106
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1116KB) ( )  
    References | Supplementary Material | Related Articles | Metrics
    With a rise in the perishable product e-commerce and upgrading of consumption, the volume of perishable product road traffic is increasing constantly, and its delivery tasks are becoming more and more complex. The distribution of perishable products is the process of delivering certain quantities of perishables from a number of suppliers to the corresponding receivers according to their orders. The Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) is a key part of distribution activity and VRP for perishable products incorporates real-life complexities, which tackles VRP for products that have fixed or loose shelf lives. Compared with non-perishable goods distribution, it is a challenging task because preserving the nutrition value and freshness of perishables during transport is tough. Both the producers and distributors are suffering from substantial losses of perishable goods caused by distribution. Even if we keep perishables under perfect transportation conditions they will deteriorate over time, with obvious potential negative impacts on economy and environment. Moreover, consumers have become more inquisitive and there is growing concern over the quality of perishable products. Combined with the reality that the particularity of perishable products and the gradual higher requirements for product quality from consumers, the transportation activity of perishables should not be limited to the traditional economic way. Improving customer satisfaction is becoming an important goal of perishable product delivery. In the industries, companies nowadays are attaching more importance to customers’ opinion and they are making efforts to prevent the perishables from deteriorating and offer fresher and safer products as much as possible by flexible service. The increasing demand for perishable products and the limited transportation capacity of companies have led to multi-trip deliveries. Faced with this situation, companies need to plan effective multi-trip delivery routes to meet customer demands, achieve cost reduction and improve efficiency in perishable product delivery.
    This paper considers a perishable product supplier with distribution autonomy, aiming at minimizing the vehicle transportation cost and minimizing the maximum perishable product circulation time of each individual customer during the whole planning horizon, which is directly related to the customer satisfaction. The transportation activity is planned in a whole planning horizon containing multiple trips for each operating vehicle, of which the time duration of the planning horizon represents the limit working duration. The latest delivery time specified by each customer is considered and the order packaging is also merged in the optimization problem. Therefore, a bi-objective vehicle routing model for perishable products with time windows and limit working duration is developed. To solve the problem, the bi-objective optimization problem is transformed into a series of single-objective optimization problems by the ε-constraint method first and then a two-stage meta-heuristic algorithm combining variable neighborhood search (VNS) and simulated annealing (SA) is constructed. Three improvement measures are proposed, including obtaining the strict lower bound simply by a property, reducing the search space during the solving process and avoiding dominated solutions by post-processing procedure. In summary, this study differs from previous studies in the following four distinct ways: (1)The bi-objective model for vehicle routing problem of multi-trips with time windows is introduced into the optimization of perishable product distribution. (2)This paper considers the packaging time, and the decision variables are more comprehensive and detailed, avoiding unnecessary waste caused by premature packaging of perishable products. (3)This paper considers customer satisfaction from the individual perspective. (4)A meta-heuristic algorithm based on ε-constraint method is designed to solve the problem, and some improvement strategies are proposed.
    Finally, a series of computational results validate the validity and effectiveness of the model and algorithm. The numerical results obtained by GUROBI and the proposed algorithm are compared by four indexes including the number of solutions covered, the number of optimal solutions covered, the mean deviation between the values of two objectives and the optimal solutions, which proves the effectiveness of the algorithm. In addition, the numerical results suggest that the post-processing method we propose help avoid the dominated solutions and help improve the customer satisfaction. The Pareto frontier obtained reflects the trade-off between transportation cost and customer satisfaction. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis under different customer density scenarios is conducted and some managerial insights are derived. The customer satisfaction is higher with low-density customer for the same number of vehicle trips and the larger the number of the trips the higher the customer satisfaction. It also shows that there will be a variety of delivery plans when the number of vehicle trips remains the same. Decision-makers can make the best choice based on the desired level of customer satisfaction to be achieved in a real-world scenario to achieve better management.
    In future work, several directions can extend our study. Real-time traffic conditions can be considered in the mathematical model. Although split deliveries are not allowed in this paper, VRP with customers allowing split deliveries is a worthy extension. Finally, developing more effective solution approaches is also important.
    Real-time Pick-up and Delivery Problem Based on Customer Satisfaction
    WU Tengyu, ZHANG Jinglu, YU Haiyan
    2024, 33(4):  21-27.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0107
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1049KB) ( )  
    References | Supplementary Material | Related Articles | Metrics
    With the rapid development of takeout industry, the time and scale of distribution are continuously improved, which makes the traffic violations such as retrograde motion and over speed increase sharply. The rapid development of takeout industry also makes takeout platforms and restaurateurs pay more and more attention to customer satisfaction, further reduces the distribution time which directly relates to customer satisfaction. O2O takeout platforms use the straight-line distance to estimate the delivery time, but the transportation network of urban business district actually has an asymmetric structure. Therefore, the distribution problem considering customer satisfaction and actual distribution network has become an important research problem of terminal real-time distribution. Based on the actual distribution network, the paper explores the optimization of real-time pick-up and delivery path considering customer satisfaction. In view of the real-time and difference of customers’ orders, distribution vehicles are required to adjust the distribution path and determine whether to return to the origin.
    The real-time pick-up and delivery path optimization problem considering customer satisfaction is studied. Softtime window constraints are added to characterize customer satisfaction and a real-time pick-up and delivery path optimization model considering customer satisfaction is established. By defining and adjusting the asymmetric network coefficients, the asymmetric distribution network is constructed; the Ignore strategy and Real-time strategy are proposed. The Ignore strategy requires the deliveryman to ignore all new orders before returning to the distribution starting point. The Real-time strategy requires the deliveryman to judge in real-time whether to return to the starting point to pick up goods and re-plan the distribution route when new orders appear. Using the numerical simulation software and calling the genetic algorithm, the applicability of the two strategies is analyzed under different network sizes, rolling time domain duration, asymmetric coefficient, time windows and order quantity. The numerical example analysis shows that the Real-time strategy is more suitable for the case of larger network, while the Ignore strategy will be more suitable when the network is smaller and the number of orders is fewer. When the network is large, as the asymmetric coefficient increases, the number of times the cost mean of the Real-time strategy is lower than the cost mean of the Ignore strategy will gradually decrease. As the number of orders increases, the number of times the average cost of the Real-time strategy is lower than the average cost of the Ignore strategy will gradually increase. When the network is small, this trend will be exactly the opposite as the asymmetry coefficient and order quantity increase.Will the dynamic release characteristics of orders have a significant impact on actual delivery costs? Will the asymmetry of distribution networks, which has a significant impact on distribution costs, be considered? On the premise of not affecting customer purchasing behavior, different delivery times can be promised to customers when there are significant differences in order distribution.
    This paper is based on asymmetric networks and studies the real-time pickup and delivery path optimization problem based on customer time windows. Online algorithms are designed and mathematical models are built to study the problem. In the future, further optimization of the research object and background can be achieved. The scenario considered in this article is bicycles, a single type of customer. Future research can classify customer types based on customer value or the value of delivered goods, and use multiple vehicles for delivery, making it more relevant to the real background. The setting of asymmetric network coefficients in the case analysis is too singular. In the future, random functions can be used to set different parameter value.
    Multi-objective Optimization Design of VSI-EWMA-NPX Chart Based on Simple Measurement
    WANG Haiyu
    2024, 33(4):  28-34.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0108
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1122KB) ( )  
    References | Supplementary Material | Related Articles | Metrics
    As an effective statistical quality management tool, control charts have been widely used in production and service processes. In recent years, there have been many studies on optimization and reconstruction of control charts to improve monitoring performance or reduce application costs. Control charts can generally be divided into two types: metric and count. The metric type is for continuous variables and requires more accurate measurements, while the count type is for discrete variables and only requires statistics on the number of pieces or points, so the measurement cost is often lower. Therefore, when the measurement cost of a quality characteristic is high or the time required is long, applying count control chart to monitor continuous variables can be an effective method to reduce costs. npx chart is a method of monitoring continuous quality characteristics using a non-conforming product quantity control chart. Compared to traditional Shewhart control charts, it has lower quality monitoring costs but poorer detection effects on abnormal shifts.
    In order to transform the measurement of continuous variables into simple and fast count type measurements, a simple measurement device with upper and lower warning limits is constructed. Based on the number of samples passing through the measurement device in a set of samples, a count type statistic following a binomial distribution is constructed. In order to improve control chart monitoring efficiency of process abnormal shifts, a variable sampling interval exponential weighted moving average npx (VSI-EWMA-NPX)control chart is constructed by combining the design ideas of dynamic control chart and exponential weighted moving average control chart, which can achieve high detection ability for abnormal shifts at a lower quality cost. On this basis, the statistical performance and economic performance of the control chart are evaluated using relatively accurate average product length(APL) and unit product average quality cost. The calculation methods of these two indicators are studied, and an economic-statistical multi-objective optimization design model of this chart is constructed using both as objective functions. A specific example is used to illustrate the calculation steps of the optimized design model, and compared and analyzed with several existing control chart methods. The results show that, regardless of the abnormal changes in process mean or standard deviation, the optimized design scheme proposed in this paper has significant advantages in monitoring efficiency and quality cost compared to other control chart methods.
    Due to the fact that the design model in this article has multiple non inferior solutions, quality management personnel can choose any one of them as the design solution based on practical application needs or their own preferences. In addition, due to the requirement of npx chart for the sample size that remains unchanged, the sampling strategy in this article only dynamically adjusts the sampling interval, so future research will consider breaking this limitation and constructing an EWMA-NPX chart design method where multiple control chart parameters can be adaptively adjusted based on the sampling results.
    Route and Speed Multi-objective Optimization for Green Intermodal Transportation with Service Time Window
    WU Peng, JI Haitao, LIN Feng, CHENG Junheng
    2024, 33(4):  35-41.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0109
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1027KB) ( )  
    References | Supplementary Material | Related Articles | Metrics
    The vigorous development of the economy is driving the construction of a strong transportation country in China. With the continuous promotion of the “the Belt and Road” and “Regional Economic Belt” strategies, such as the opening of container transport channels such as “China Europe Express” and “Yangtze River Economic Belt”, China’s intermodal transport also has ushered in a historic development opportunity. At the same time, the continuous intensification of the global greenhouse effect and the increasing awareness of low-carbon environmental protection among people have also prompted China to accelerate the construction of a green transportation system and reduce its impact on the environment, which puts forward higher requirements for reducing the carbon emissions generated by intermodal transportation. However, the current market share of intermodal container transportation in China is still relatively small and the development speed is slow. The main reason is that shippers do not have an enough understanding of the relevant situation of intermodal container transportation, and the marketing work of intermodal transportation operators is not yet in place. Therefore, people are increasingly interested in developing intermodal transportation solutions, which requires a shift towards railway or sea transportation modes. This is particularly true of China, which has navigable waterways including vast coastal and inland waterways. Coastal and short distance sea transportation can be utilized for cargo transportation, with a focus on alleviating congestion in existing road and railway infrastructure. Therefore, how to plan transportation plans reasonably to improve freight efficiency, effectively integrate resources, and achieve low-cost and green transportation while meeting the diverse needs of shippers, time window constraints, and multi cargo logistics is an in-depth research question of this article.
    With regard to freight transportation and in addition to optimizing traditional cost objective, minimizing the negative impact on the environment is also of great significance. This paper studies a new multi-objective green road-sea intermodal transportation problem with service time windows, which aims to determine the freight transport route and speed in the intermodal transportation network to meet transport demands. The objective is to simultaneously minimize the total cost and carbon emissions. For this problem, a multi-objective mixed integer programming model is first developed. To effectively and efficiently solve this problem, a new ε-constraint method combined with a fuzzy-logic method is proposed. Then, the effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm is verified by a typical green intermodal transport problem in China. The computational results show that the proposed model and algorithm can efficiently and effectively solve the proposed multi-objective optimization problem of green intermodal transport with service time windows. Compared with truck transport, the use of intermodal transport can reduce the cost by 33.91%, which is of great significance for the conversion from road transport to road-sea intermodal transport. In addition, The cases are analyzed, where decision-makers have different preferences and there are changes in fuel prices, to provide a reference for decision-makers when optimizing route and speed in green intermodal.
    This article conducts some research on the optimization of green intermodal transportation paths and speeds with service time windows. However, due to time constraints and limitation of our own knowledge, there are still some shortcomings in some aspects. Therefore, considering the future development of green intermodal transportation, the following aspects are still worth further research, including excluding other negative factors that may exist in transportation, such as traffic congestion, weather conditions during ship navigation, and terrain. Therefore, in the future, it is necessary to deeply analyze the impact of various factors on shipping plans in green intermodal transportation issues.
    Synchronized Scheduling Optimization for Mobile Vaccination Vehicles and Replenishment Vehicles with Separable Demand
    LYU Yayun, HU Zhihua, WANG Yaozong
    2024, 33(4):  42-49.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0110
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1250KB) ( )  
    References | Supplementary Material | Related Articles | Metrics
    In recent years, public health events have gained people’s focus and continuous attention, sudden epidemic disasters have affected national economy and national health,and the successful research and development of vaccines has become a key measure to curb the continuous spread of the epidemic. In order to alleviate the congestion of vaccination stations and reduce residents’ travel costs for vaccination, a new smart mobile vaccination vehicle has been put into shopping malls, communities and other places with heavy traffic for mobile vaccination services since April 2021. According to the appointment information of vaccinators on the vaccination platform and the service time window of vaccination points, CDC assigned vaccination tasks to vaccination points, dispatched mobile vaccination vehicles to vaccination points for vaccination services, and in order to solve the inventory limitation problem of mobile vaccination vehicles, dispatched supply vehicles for inventory replenishment, to ensure the sustainability of the service. Under this background, this paper studies the synchronized scheduling optimization for mobile vaccination vehicles and replenishment vehicles with separable demand.
    Aiming at the problem of mobile vaccination synchronous scheduling, the existing literature is reviewed from the aspects of public health event decision method, vehicle scheduling optimization problem, synchronization problem, etc., and the reference research ideas and research methods are summarized and refined. For solving the problem, the precise solution of CPLEX and genetic algorithm and their improved methods are studied.
    Based on the demand certainty, the spatio-temporal synchronization characteristics of the operation of the inoculation vehicle and the supply vehicle are made clear, that is, the service sequence of the two vehicles is coupled with each other and the inoculation and supply decisions are interdependent. Secondly, the replenishment operation considers the detachable characteristics of replenishment demand and adopts different replenishment strategies. A single objective mixed integer linear programming model is established to determine the service path and service time of the mobile vaccination vehicle, the supply strategy and the supply quantity of the supply vehicle. Since the inoculation vehicle scheduling problem with multiple inoculation points is a NP difficult problem, the precise algorithm is difficult to solve the large-scale example. An evolution algorithm based on greedy strategy is designed to solve the large-scale example. Meanwhile, the experimental comparison with CPLEX precise solution method verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the model and algorithm. The Solomon dataset is extended to generate examples of different sizes, and the experimental results show that increasing the vaccine consumption speed could significantly reduce the maximum vaccination time, and the flexible replenishment strategy is better than the maximum replenishment strategy, which is more beneficial to saving cost and keeping the stock level stable. Finally, we solve a case on the flow vaccination data of the Shanghai Pudong New Area by which the practical application value of the study has been proved.
    The shortcomings of this paper are that it does not fully consider the suddenness and uncertainty of vaccine demand, and the performance of the algorithm designed for the complexity of the model needs to be optimized. The above problems are the directions for future research.
    Research on the Probability Group Test Bi-objective Optimization Model Considering Group Test Cost and Time Value
    MA Qianli, GAO Zihui, JIA Peng, MA Baiyu, ZHANG Mingzhen
    2024, 33(4):  50-55.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0111
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1286KB) ( )  
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Since the twentieth century, regional public health events have occurred frequently around the globe, directly threatening the safety of human life and hindering socio-economic development. In 2020, COVID-19 broke out and ravaged the globe, resulting in severe impacts on many regions. The nucleic acid detection is an important means for the normalization of epidemic prevention and control. By expanding the scope of detection, we have targeted sporadic cases and concentrated on epidemics in areas where important entry ports such as Beijing, Tianjin, Heilongjiang, and Liaoning are located. Relevant departments organized multiple rounds of large-scale nucleic acid detection in relevant areas. Multiple rounds of large-scale nucleic acid detection in various regions cost a lot of money, and the group test can greatly improve efficiency and reduce cost. Therefore, it is of great significance for epidemic prevention and control and government public health management to study how to determine the reasonable mixed number of nucleic acid detection samples to improve the detection efficiency and reduce the cost of regional virus nucleic acid detection.
    First, the conditional probability model is used to calculate the expected value of the newly infected numbers every day by using the mutual calculation relationship between the newly diagnosed numbers and the newly infected numbers. The bootstrap method is introduced to give the corresponding confidence interval to further calculate the number of existing infections (undiagnosed) and predict the changing trend of the number of newly diagnosed infections. The number of positive samples and the probability of positive samples are estimated, and the optimal mixing number of probability group trials is calculated.
    Secondly, we should complete the nucleic acid detection of all personnel in relevant areas in the shortest possible time, which is conducive to preventing the spread of the epidemic and restoring regional development and residents’ daily life as soon as possible;we should complete the nucleic acid detection of all personnel in relevant areas at the lowest possible cost, which is conducive to saving government expenditure and reducing the financial burden. Therefore, a probability group trial bi-objective optimization model based on group test cost and time value is established to minimize the detection completion time and group test cost under the specification of nucleic acid detection, and the optimal number of mixed samples under the bi-objective optimization can be obtained.
    Finally, in order to verify the applicability of the model, the detection of COVID-19 nucleic acid is analyzed, calculating Pareto optimal solution by priority method and the Pareto optimal curve under the minimum cost, and the shortest detection completion time is obtained. The results show that the reasonable mixed number of nucleic acid detection samples is about 10. In order to facilitate organization, arrangement, and statistics, 10 is often taken, except for special requirements for detection cost and detection completion time. For example, nucleic acid testing is carried out in medium and high-risk areas in underdeveloped areas and standardized nucleic acid testing is carried out regularly in areas at risk of epidemic introduction.
    To sum up, the probabilistic group test model based on the consideration of group test cost and time value can improve the detection efficiency and reduce the cost of virus nucleic acid detection, which is conducive to the cost reduction and efficiency increase in public health management under the normal epidemic situation. It is of great significance for relevant departments to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control and promote the resumption of work and production.
    Optimization Model and Algorithm of Two-dimensional Plate Guillotine Cutting Stock Problem Based on Multiple-block Layout
    PAN Weiping, FAN Zhiping, HUANG Min, JI Mingjun
    2024, 33(4):  56-62.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0112
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1357KB) ( )  
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    The two-dimensional cutting problem of rectangular plates refers to cutting several types of rectangular parts from a set of plates, and minimizing the number of plates used while ensuring that the demand for each type of rectangular part is met. This problem has a wide range of applications in the industrial field. A good cutting plan can improve the utilization rate of plate metal, reduce production costs, and enhance the competitiveness of enterprises. The cutting plan generally consists of multiple layouts, each of which provides the layout of rectangular parts on a single plate of material. Therefore, the two-dimensional cutting problem of rectangular plates includes two combinatorial optimization problems: the one is determining the layout by combining rectangular parts on a single plate; the other is combining the feasible layouts in the set to determine the cutting plan.
    The commonly used methods for solving the cutting problem of two-dimensional rectangular plates can be divided into three types. The first type is the integer programming method. The second type is the sequential heuristic method. This method generates a layout using the remaining rectangular parts to meet the partial demand for the rectangular parts, and repeats the process until all the demands for the rectangular parts are met. The third type is the linear programming method. Due to a large number of decision variables in the model, it is difficult for the integer programming method to calculate solutions for medium to large-scale cutting problems in a reasonable time. Sequential heuristic algorithms are generally used for cutting problems with low demand for rectangular parts. For cutting problems with high demand for rectangular parts, the calculation time is too long and it is difficult to meet practical application requirements. The utilization rate of the cutting plan generated by the linear programming method and the complexity of the cutting process depend on the layout used.
    The two-dimensional plate cutting stock problem of rectangular parts is discussed in this study. A two-dimensional plate cutting stock optimization model and solution algorithm of multiple-block layout are proposed. In order to balance the computational complexity and plate utilization of multiple-block layout, the number of blocks of multiple-block layout is set as eight. The eight-block layout first divides the plate into eight rectangular blocks through three times as many as one-in-two cutting operations, and then cut each block into the same rectangular parts with the same direction. Firstly, an eight-block layout algorithm is constructed to determine the optimal layout of rectangular parts and the optimal eight-block partition of plates in all possible sizes according to the principle of maximum layout value. Then, the column generation algorithm is used to iteratively call the above eight-block layout algorithms to generate a series of cutting plans, and the cutting plan with the least plate consumption is selected as the final solution.
    We compare the layout algorithm and cutting algorithm in this study with the literature layout algorithm and cutting stock algorithm using benchmark examples and actual production examples. By using 10 literature layout instances, the eight-block layout algorithm is compared with three literature layout algorithms. The experimental results show that the layout value of only one instance of the eight-block layout algorithm is lower than two literature layout algorithms, and the layout value of the other nine instances is higher than three literature layout algorithms. Using the actual cutting instance in the literature, the eight-block cutting stock algorithm is compared with the cutting stock algorithm in the literature. The experimental results show that the cutting plan of the eight-block cutting stock algorithm consumes 2269 plates and the utilization rate of plates is 99.88%. The cutting plan generated by the literature cutting stock algorithm consumes 2285 plates, and the utilization rate of plates is 99.18%. It can be seen that the plate utilization rate of the cutting plan generated by the eight-block cutting stock algorithm is 0.7% higher than that of the cutting stock algorithm in the literature, and the number of plates consumed is very close to the theoretical lower bound. The calculation time of the eight-block layout algorithm and eight-block cutting stock algorithm in this study can meet the needs of practical application.
    The method proposed in this article has the following characteristics. Each plate of the cutting scheme only contains a maximum of 8 types of rectangular parts, which is conducive to the sorting of rectangular parts in the plate cutting process. After the board is cut into blocks, each block only needs to be cut into a rectangular part with the same direction, and the cutting process is relatively simple. It is suitable for solving the cutting and cutting problem of large-scale rectangular two-dimensional plate metal. The utilization rate of the cutting plan is high, and the calculation time can meet the practical application needs. Future research work can consider using a multi-block layout to solve the cutting and punching problem of two-dimensional circular plate metal.
    Optimization Strategies of Remanufacturing System Considering Consumers’Environmental Awareness under Carbon Tax Policy
    ZHANG Huichen, HAN Xiaoya
    2024, 33(4):  63-69.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0113
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1223KB) ( )  
    References | Supplementary Material | Related Articles | Metrics
    In recent years, climate change has been a topic of common concern in the world, and in order to cope with climate change, low-carbon development has become a common trend in the development of countries around the world. With the development of society, consumers’ awareness of environmental protection is increasing. In order to capture the market and promote product sales, many manufacturing companies provide “trade-in” services. The “trade-in” and government subsidy policies promote the recycling of old products, which further provides the basis for the development of the remanufacturing industry. As a kind of green products, the performance and quality of remanufactured products are no worse than those of the original new products, and the acceptance of remanufactured products by consumers is also increasing. However, due to the inherent concept of consumers, the acceptance of remanufactured products is relatively low compared with green innovative products, which also provides an incentive for manufacturers to develop green innovative products. Then, how manufacturers should respond to the competition of remanufactured products and promote the development of the remanufacturing supply chain under the low-carbon policy is an issue worth studying.
    This study takes new products produced by manufacturers and remanufactured products produced by remanufacturers under the carbon tax policy as an object for study. Considering the erosion of remanufactured products on new products, royalties are introduced to mitigate the erosion of the products, and in order to cope with the increasing environmental protection consciousness of consumers, emission reduction design is carried out for new products. The game models between manufacturers and remanufacturers are developed and optimized under three scenarios: no emission reduction strategy, emission reduction strategy and supply chain coordination. The government promotes low-carbon production through carbon tax policy, while producers and remanufacturers maximize profits by optimizing pricing and production strategies. The interactive decision-making between remanufacturers and producers is analyzed using the Stackelberg game model framework. Finally, by coordinating the supply chain, a contract is proposed to achieve a “win-win” situation for both producers and remanufacturers.
    The main conclusions are as follows: (1)When producers do not adopt emission reduction strategies, the increase in consumers’ environmental awareness can motivate producers to reduce the price of new products and royalties; when the unit production cost of new products is low, remanufacturers should try to increase the acceptance of remanufactured products to cope with the competition of new products. (2)When manufacturers adopt emission reduction strategies, the optimal emission reduction rate of new products will not always increase with the increase in consumers’ environmental awareness, and the gap between the unit carbon emission of new products and that of remanufactured products needs to be considered. (3)Cooperation among supply chain members is a necessary means to promote the healthy development of the market. In conclusion, when facing the issues of carbon tax policy, consumer environmental awareness and product erosion, manufacturers should judge the size of the corresponding thresholds according to the market situation and formulate effective strategies to promote the healthy development of the market.
    Future research can conduct in-depth discussions in the following directions: (1)Research on the interaction between emission reduction strategies and supply chain coordination should further explore the interaction between emission reduction strategies and supply chain coordination, and analyze how to achieve benefit sharing and risk sharing among supply chain members under the emission reduction target. It should study the impact of different coordination mechanisms (e.g., contract design, information sharing, etc.) on the implementation effect of emission reduction strategies, and explore how to optimize the coordination mechanism to improve the emission reduction effect and supply chain performance. (2)Research on the impact of carbon tax policy on the remanufacturing system should further analyze the specific mechanism of carbon tax policy in the remanufacturing system, including its impact on producers, remanufacturers and the whole supply chain. It can explore the operation strategies and performance changes of the supply chain under different carbon tax rates, and provide decision support for the government to formulate reasonable carbon tax policies.
    Approach to Group Decision Making with Interval Complementary Preference Relations Based on Consistency and Consensus Analysis
    MENG Fanyong, WANG Yiwen
    2024, 33(4):  70-76.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0114
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (982KB) ( )  
    References | Supplementary Material | Related Articles | Metrics
    Interval fuzzy preference relations have the advantages of intervals and preference relations, which have been widely concerned. Interval is one type of the simplest fuzzy evaluation information, which can easily represent the upper and lower bounds of the decision makers’ uncertain judgment. Preference relation reduces the requirement for the decision makers that only needs decision makers to provide the pairwise comparative value of objects. However, the current consistency research on interval fuzzy preference relationships still has some shortcomings. For example, the complementarity and order invariance cannot be guaranteed.
    This paper first summarizes the limitations of previous additive consistency concepts of interval complementary preference relations. Then, a new group decision making method is developed based on the additive consistency and consensus analysis. The main contributions are as follows: a new additive consistency concept based on the median and deviation of the interval judgment matrix is proposed and its properties are discussed. For the incomplete interval complementary preference relations, a programming model is built to determine the missing value. or the inconsistent interval complementary preference relations, this paper establishes several models to judge and adjust its inconsistency. Based on the interval distance measure, a consensus index is proposed and the consensus analysis of additive consistent interval complementary preference relations is carried out.
    The new approach is implemented in a practical scenario: assessing and choosing suppliers of spare parts. Upon conducting a sensitivity analysis of decision outcomes, the new method shows good robustness. Moreover, the effectiveness and superiority of the new method are demonstrated, compared with other decision-making methods. Notably, the new method eliminates their theoretical limitations.
    The new method is based on complete additive consistency, which is difficult to achieve in practical decision making. Thus, the subsequent research can be based on satisfactory additive consistency. Considering the difference in the characteristics of decision makers, the preference relationship with heterogeneous information is worth further study. It is worth noting that the theoretical results of this paper can be extended to other types of preference relationships, such as triangular complementary preference relationship, intuitive complementary preference relationship, hesitant complementary preference relationship, and double-hierarchical linguistic preference relationship.
    Retailer’s Pricing Strategy and Inventory Decision Considering Strategic Consumers’ Overconfidence and Risk Aversion
    SONG Yanan, YUE Zexin, XIE Dong
    2024, 33(4):  77-84.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0115
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1174KB) ( )  
    References | Supplementary Material | Related Articles | Metrics
    Strategic consumers are those who make deliberate decisions about when to make purchases in order to take advantage of possible discounts or promotions. Extensive research has been conducted on several facets of strategic consumer behavior. Research on risk-averse behavior among strategic consumers has advanced significantly, with several researchers providing empirical evidence of the presence of risk-averse behavior among strategic consumers. Nevertheless, there has been a limited amount of study available on strategic customers who exhibit overconfidence.
    Overconfidence conduct arises from the discoveries of cognitive psychology and is a prevalent cognitive bias seen in individuals. Recently, several researchers in the area of operations management have shown interest in it. Consumers may have cognitive biases towards random needs owing to overconfidence while making strategic decisions, as a result of the uncertainty surrounding market demand. Overconfidence among strategic consumers is the inclination for consumers to have excessive faith in their ability to accurately predict demand, even in situations when the consequences are unclear. This demonstrates a propensity for consumers to overestimate their accuracy in anticipating random events. Existing research clearly indicates that overconfidence behavior might cause customers to inaccurately assess the probability of acquiring things, hence impacting consumer decision-making and shop revenues. Hence, we will consider the strategic behavior of consumers by focusing on overconfidence and risk-aversion.
    This research examines the phenomenon of overconfidence and risk-averse behavior among strategic customers. We develop a retailer inventory choice model that examines the impact of customer preferences for fixed pricing and discounted pricing on the selection of retailer pricing strategies and inventory decisions. Additionally, we investigate the correlation between (overconfidence and risk-averse behavior) excessive self-assurance and cautious decision-making.
    The primary outcomes of this investigation are: 1)Retailers see a loss in inventory levels and earnings when they use a discounting strategy. This decrease is more pronounced when consumers are too confident, but it is mitigated when consumers are more risk averse. 2)When customer overconfidence levels are low, the retailer’s optimum profit is greatly influenced by risk aversion, and the retailer’s choice of discounting technique results in increased profits. 3)When consumers are too confident, the influence of risk aversion on the retailer’s maximum profit is negligible, and the retailer’s decision to use a fixed pricing approach results in increased profits.
    This research has advanced our knowledge of how customer overconfidence and risk aversion affect store pricing tactics and inventory selections. Nevertheless, this research has not included price as a choice variable for the retailer and assumed that the market size remains constant. This conclusion is reached after conducting sensitivity analysis on the impact of pricing and inventory selection mistakes on retailer profits. Exploring the potential benefits of loosening market size restrictions and examining the effects of pricing choices would be worthwhile areas of future investigation.
    Pricing and Decision Making of Venture Capital Based on Funding Policies
    ZHANG Yindong, DING Chuan
    2024, 33(4):  85-91.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0116
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1126KB) ( )  
    References | Supplementary Material | Related Articles | Metrics
    Innovation is a source power of a country’s economic development and an important force to push forward the economy and society. Compared with the huge investment in R&D funds, China’s actual industrial technology level and key core competitiveness have not achieved sufficient development yet. Although the government attaches unprecedented importance to the innovation capability of enterprises, due to the limitation of external factors and objective laws, it is impossible for the investment of national financial funds to grow rapidly without boundaries. Therefore, both the government and enterprises should gradually change the focus of their work and pay more attention to the efficiency of subsidizing units.
    As far as the current mainstream subsidy policies around the world are concerned, there are no more than three main forms of subsidy. That is, the subsidy policy for start-ups represented by the Small Business Administration (SBA) of the United States, the subsidy policy for venture capital institutions by the YOZMA program of Israel, and the subsidy policy for both start-ups and venture capital institutions by the German Central Government Guidance Fund. However, there is still no accurate conclusion on what form of subsidy policy can promote the development of start-ups to the greatest extent. Therefore, the optimal subsidy policy and pricing for start-ups with the government have become the focus issues that need to be solved in the process of promoting the development of innovative economy.
    Different from previous studies, this paper summarizes and puts forward three different types of subsidy policies on the basis of previous studies and cases. Taking the venture capital project valuation as an opportunity, this paper focuses on the government subsidy and equity negotiation process in the venture capital process, takes the difference of the negotiation ability between the enterprise and the capital into account and uses the real option pricing theory in the continuous time framework to model and solve the above problems. This paper holds a meaningful discussion on the influence of different subsidy types and equity negotiation process on the critical value of both enterprises and investors and the investment value of projects, which to some extent fills a theoretical gap between subsidy policy and entrepreneurial project pricing.
    The findings of this paper are as follows: (1)The investment value of the same investment project varies greatly due to different subsidy policies. (2)The critical value of both enterprises and investors is negatively correlated with their respective equity shares. The ideal equity negotiation of both parties can satisfy the participation constraints of their respective critical values under certain conditions, so as to maintain the overall process of venture capital investment. However, the difference in negotiating ability of both parties will lead to the artificial distortion of the original subsidy target. (3)For start-ups, project investment value is positively correlated with equity share. For venture capitalists, the project investment value presents an inverted U shape with an increase in equity share, which means that there is an optimal equity allocation scheme between the enterprise and the capital in the process of venture capital, which maximizes the project investment value.
    Evolutionary Game Analysis of Smart Community Construction Considering Local Government Departments’ Collaboration and Residents’ Information Privacy Concern
    TAN Zhe, SHEN Yanmei, LI Fusheng, CAO Huizhen
    2024, 33(4):  92-98.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0117
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1112KB) ( )  
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    The rapid development of information technology and intelligent systems has led to the emergence of smart communities as a new direction for modernizing grassroots governance in China. These communities provide intelligent public services to residents, primarily in the areas of public safety, security, and administrative affairs, by collecting and utilizing residents’ personal information data. Currently, smart communities are in the initial stages of development, primarily encountering challenges related to intergovernmental collaboration and residents’ privacy concerns. Throughout the construction process, local governments and community residents will continually adjust their strategies by learning and imitating, given the risks associated with interdepartmental collaboration and information privacy. When the public security department leads the construction, the smart community will focus on providing law and order services to residents. On the other hand, when the civil affairs department leads the construction, the smart community will focus on handling public affairs for residents. Residents can choose whether or not to share personal information with the government in exchange for smart community services. Alternatively, they can refuse to protect their personal information. The aim of this paper is to summarise the decision-making laws of the government and residents during the construction of smart communities. Theconclusions of this paper provide optimisation suggestions for policy design and guide practice with theory.
    The article presents a Stackelberg model to illustrate the level-of-effort decisions made by the dominant and auxiliary sectors at a specific point in time. Additionally, an evolutionary game model is used to depict the strategy evolution of local government and community residents over time. By solving and analyzing the game model, evolutionary stable strategies (ESS) can be obtained under four scenarios. The theoretical results indicate that the level of collaboration between government departments and the level of information privacy concerns among residents are key factors influencing the evolutionary stabilisation strategies.After a comprehensive analysis of the conditions corresponding to the evolutionary stabilization strategy, the following conclusions can be drawn: Firstly, the completion of a smart community is contingent on the level of residents’ perception of public service and the department’s ability to collaborate, and the level of residents’ information privacy concern must be below a specific threshold. Secondly, the government tends to select departments with high synergistic abilities rather than those with high working levels to lead the development of smart communities in the long term. This is because the advantages of efficient and cost-effective auxiliary departments can be integrated and amplified by the synergistic abilities of dominant departments. Thirdly, government departments with higher coefficients of return, that is, those with higher administrative benefits or lower administrative costs will exert greater effort. This, in turn, will provide greater utility to local governments and community residents.
    To verify the theoretical results, the article combines numerical experiments to analyse two types of typical practice cases. Case I considers the different average levels of information privacy concerns among residents in communities where different occupational groups are the main residents. The experiments demonstrate the results and speed changes of evolutionary convergence under different levels of information privacy concerns. Case II focuses on residents’ perception of services before and after the implementation of a smart community. The study aims to determine the impact of different perception levels on the experiment’s evolutionary speed. The numerical results indicate that higher levels of information privacy concerns result in slower convergence speeds of residents’ information sharing, and may even lead to the adoption of a “no-sharing” strategy. When residents’ perception of public services improves, the speed of convergence of their shared information will increase. This means that a smart community can collect residents’ information in a shorter period of time.
    The conclusions of this paper are not perfect and can be improved in the future. Two possible research directions are: including the central government or third-party enterprises as participants in the discussion, and considering changes in construction costs.
    Research on the Impact of RCEP on Transnational Scientific and Technological Cooperation Based on Dynamic Evolutionary Game
    LONG Lijuan, WANG Yuanchang
    2024, 33(4):  99-104.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0118
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (948KB) ( )  
    References | Supplementary Material | Related Articles | Metrics
    At present, the world is experiencing profound shifts unseen in a century,and human development is facing more and more major challenges. In the context of globalization, scientific and technological innovation is an important means to respond to global challenges, win-win cooperation is the goal of forming a new type of international relations, and international scientific and technological cooperation is an important measure to respond to the global challenges facing mankind. To distinguish the impact of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) on transnational scientific and technological cooperation, study how to promote international scientific and technological cooperation, accelerate the process of scientific and technological innovation, and enable RCEP member states to benefit from the experience and technological advantages from other member states to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results, work together to build a global scientific and technological community are crucial.
    Under the assumption of bounded rationality, a three-strategy scientific and technological cooperation evolutionary game model is constructed and a dynamic replication equation is established. Moreover, this paper uses real data from each RCEP member state in 2019 to conduct a comparative study on the evolution paths and stabilization strategies of scientific and technological cooperation between China and other RCEP member states with or without RCEP, analyzes the impact of RCEP on transnational scientific and technological cooperation, explores the main factors affecting behavior, and then provides policy suggestions to promote RCEP to maximize its effect.
    The research results show that RCEP can promote scientific and technological cooperation between China and other countries, but for countries with a higher degree of cooperation, its signing means more “free-riding” opportunities, in terms of the impact of RCEP on China, It is said that after signing RCEP, due to the deepening of cooperation and the reduction in monitoring costs, China and other member states will transform their full cooperation strategy into a bullying strategy to obtain “free-riding” benefits. Therefore, this paper recommends the introduction of a third-party regulatory agency to strictly supervise the cooperation between member states, to strongly combat opportunism in the game process, to introduce punishment factors, to increase the crackdown on “free-riding” behavior, and to crack down on “free-riding” behavior. Different countries adopt different penalties and control the intensity of punishment. Based on not affecting the willingness of member states to cooperate in science and technology, the maximum intensity of punishment to warn other countries is chosen.
    Parallel Machine Scheduling Problem Considering Mold Constraints and Machine Opening Cost
    LI Jinlin, YIN Chenglong
    2024, 33(4):  105-111.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0119
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (958KB) ( )  
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    This study is driven by an industrial case concerning the scheduling of plastic injection machines in a switch factory. The injection workshop produces plastic parts for about 300 types of switches, and every two weeks it needs to deliver thousands of batches of parts to the assembly workshop, where a part may be delivered in multiple batches. Each batch of a part is treated as an indivisible job, characterized by a due date and mold requirements. Whenever two consecutive jobs involve different types of parts, a mold change is necessary, incurring setup time and cost. The decision-maker must determine the optimal number of operational machines, the job assignment and job sequence for each machine, considering the mold constraints and setup time/cost. The objective is to minimize the total cost, i.e., the sum of weighted tardiness cost, setup cost, and machine opening cost. Comparable scheduling problems are prevalent in small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises in China, yet this particular problem has not been addressed in existing literature.
    The problem is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming. It is proven that an optimal solution always exists without any machine idle time, meaning that a machine will never be idle unless all the jobs assigned to it have been completed. To ensure the absence of machine idle time, a new dispatching rule is proposed. The underlying principle is very similar to the ATCS (Apparent Tardiness Cost with Setups)dispatching rule introduced by CHEN and WU (2006): whenever a machine is available, we evaluate the priority index of all unassigned jobs, and select the job with the highest priority for assignment. The process continues until all jobs are assigned. However, our rule differs from the ATCS rule in that the selected job should be assigned to the machine where it can be completed the earliest, rather than to the machine just available. The distinction becomes significant when every part is delivered in many batches and the number of molds for a part is very limited. Based on this rule, a heuristic (named the ATCS-MOD heuristic) and a genetic algorithm incorporating a list scheduling heuristic (named the GA-LS algorithm) are designed to solve the problem. The GA-LS algorithm includes scheduling generated by the ATCS-MOD rule for various numbers of operational machines in its initial population, while the ATCS-MOD heuristic simply selects the best scheduling as the solution. The computational experiments conducted on a dataset comprising 640 randomly generated instances validate the effectiveness of the proposed dispatch rule and algorithms.
    The performance of the proposed algorithms is firstly compared with the CPLEX solver in 160 small-sized instances. The CPLEX solver finds optimal solutions to 51 instances, while providing feasible solutions to the remaining instances, with an average runtime of 498 seconds. In contrast, the GA-LS algorithm achieves comparable or slightly superior solutions to the CPLEX solver in less than 1 second. On average, the GA-LS solution is 0.15% better than the CPLEX solution. In some instances, the GA-LS solution is worse than the CPLEX solution, but the cost increase never exceeds 2.49%. The computational results in 480 large-sized instances further reinforce the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms. The CPLEX solver fails to find any feasible solutions in most large-sized instances within 600 seconds, whereas the ATCS-MOD heuristic and the GA-LS algorithm require less than 0.01 and 36 seconds, respectively, to solve an instance.
    Both the ATCS-MOD heuristic and GA-LS algorithm outperform the traditional ATCS heuristic in literature. By simply replacing the traditional ATCS rule with our dispatching rule, the ATCS-MOD heuristic gets an average of 22.23% cost reduction over the traditional ATCS heuristic. This result clearly proves the superiority of our dispatching rule. The GA-LS algorithm consistently outperforms both heuristics in all instances, achieving solutions with an average cost that is 31.56% lower than that of the traditional ATCS heuristic.
    Simulation and Reliability Analysis of Cascading Failure Model for Complex Financial Networks
    ZHANG Quan, MO Zhenxiang, YANG Lurui
    2024, 33(4):  112-117.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0120
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1241KB) ( )  
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Nowadays, with the continuous development of science and technology, society becomes more prosperous, but at the same time, systems in society become more complex. The complex network theory plays an important role in many kinds of network research. With the rapid development of the economy, the development of China’s financial network changes each day. The types of financial institutions and financial products are becoming more diversified, and the relations among financial institutions are becoming more complex, and the structure of the financial network has also become more intricate.In order to reduce the cascading failure of complex financial network and prevent the major systemic financial risks and enhance the invulnerability of complex financial networks, it is necessary to clarify the structural relationship between financial networks, analyze the mechanism of cascading failure of financial networks, and study the reliability of financial networks based on cascading failure model, and then explore the methods to avoid cascading failure of financial networks. Based on the dynamic characteristics and cascade failure mechanism of complex network, financial network and its cascade failure model are established, and the initial loads and capacities of nodes and connecting edges are defined.Then, the reliability of cascade failure model of financial network under different conditions is quantitatively analyzed by simulation, and the result shows that the model is effective, which is helpful for the prevention from the failure of complex financial network and further research into it.
    Cascading failures have attracted considerable attention due to their widespread occurrence in various real world systems and their highly destructive effect on network robustness. Although the current research on cascading failures in complex networks is relatively in-depth, it still faces many challenges as the structural and dynamic heterogeneity of real financial systems . This paper focuses on the model of complex financial networks with respect to cascading failures. Cascading failures in complex financial networks can lead to large-scale network collapse and a series of disastrous consequences, but cascading failures can be effectively prevented and solved by modeling, simulation, and quantitative analysis.Based on the complex network theory, this paper establishes the financial network model by using the graph theory language, and then applies the cascade failure model to the study of complex financial network for the first time.Finally, based on this model, we analyze the reliability of financial network and draw the following two conclusions:
    (1)In the process of cascading failure simulation of financial networks, increasing the number of iterations will lead to the decrease in network efficiency and the increase in node failure efficiency. When the network is deliberately attacked, the network efficiency will decrease rapidly, the node failure rate will increase rapidly, the network will be greatly impacted, and the impact will be much greater than that in the case of random attack.
    (2)Under the same attack mode, improving the risk tolerance coefficient will help to improve the network efficiency, reduce the failure rate, improve the network reliability, and even avoid the occurrence of network cascade failure, but it will pay the corresponding cost.
    In addition, the relationship between cost and risk tolerance coefficient is discussed, and it is found that the relative change relationship between α and relative increased cost e is as follows: e=1+α. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to optimize the reliability of financial network from two aspects: strengthening the protection of key institutions and taking emergency measures after failure.
    Application Research
    Strategy-oriented Model for Selecting Risk Response Strategies for Project Portfolios
    ZHANG Xu, BAI Sijun, WANG Zonghan, GUO Yuntao
    2024, 33(4):  118-124.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0121
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1420KB) ( )  
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Project portfolio management has become an important method for enterprises to realize strategic goals. However, project portfolio risks can reduce the probability of project portfolio success, thus seriously hindering the achievement of the strategical goals. Therefore, enterprises need to choose appropriate risk response strategies to weaken the negative impacts of risks. However, there are fewer studies on project portfolio risk response decisions in the existing literature, and there is an even greater lack of strategy-oriented decision models. In addition, there are multiple relationships among portfolio risks, project portfolios, and strategic goals, which makes risk response decision-making more complex. Hence, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the decision-making model of project portfolio risk response to reduce the negative impacts brought by risks, and thus help enterprises realize strategies successfully.
    To solve this problem scientifically, this paper constructs a three-layer network of strategical goals, project portfolios, and risks to qualitatively analyze the relationships among them, builds a two-layer quality house to quantitatively analyze the above relationship, and constructs a risk response strategy selection model to maximize the realization of strategies. First, we analyze the synergistic relationship among strategic goals, the interactive relationship among projects, and the associated relationship among project portfolio risks, and construct a three-layer network of strategical goals, project portfolios, and risks through complex network theory, qualitatively describing the above three relationships.Second, the QFD method is introduced to construct a two-layer quality house based on strategy-oriented project portfolio risk analysis, which realizes the transformation of the above three relationships. The relationships are quantitatively analyzed by SFS.Third, a model of project portfolio risk response strategy selection for maximizing the realization of strategic goals is established. Finally, the practicality of the proposed model is verified and the impact of different risk response budgets on decision-making is analyzed by taking the project portfolio of an enterprise as an example.
    This study shows that 1)the level of strategy achievement improves as the risk response budget increases, but the increase gradually decreases; 2)the contribution of the selected risk response strategies to the lowest successful above-average projects increases, and the contribution to the realization of strategic goals with weights greater than the mean tends to increase and then decrease; and 3)the success of the most heavily weighted project in the portfolio is more affected by the response budget changes.
    In summary, the strategy-oriented project portfolio risk response strategy selection model proposed in this paper can enrich the existing literature on project risk response strategy selection and provide theoretical and methodological guidance for actual project portfolio risk response decision-making.
    Dynamic Mechanism of New Energy Vehicle Policy on Key Technology Innovation Based on Big Data Driven
    LIU Qin, WEN Xiaonan, HAN Xiao
    2024, 33(4):  125-132.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0122
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1328KB) ( )  
    References | Supplementary Material | Related Articles | Metrics
    New energy vehicle (NEV) market in China has developed rapidly, but there are still bottlenecks in key technology innovation of NEV. It is urgent to explore how various multi-policies play a more effective role in promoting key technological innovation in a complex and uncertain environment. Recent studies mostly use traditional quantitative method to analyze static utility of a certain policy, which is insufficient to analyze the dynamic effect of multiple policies under the complex causal effect. Therefore, on the basis of combing policy informatics and policy complexity theory, this study constructs a dynamic model of policy effect under an uncertain environment based on a big data-driven research paradigm. And then we collect multi-source heterogeneous policy data and build a PSR-Bayesian network model, in order to predict the impact results of multiple policies, and carry out cause diagnosis. This study enriches the quantitative research of policy information under the background of big data, and the research conclusion is of great significance for optimizing the combination structure, the rules and standards of policy measures, and improving the promotion effect of policies on key technological innovations.
    This study is designed with three parts: The first part is data collection. External embedded multi-source heterogeneous data includes 12 types of policy document data, enterprise innovation process data and innovation result data, and central policy documents from 2014 to 2020 are collected from the official websites of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the National Development and Reform Commission and other central ministries and commissions. The financial report data are collected of 16 listed NEV companies from CSMAR database during 2014-2020. The patent data of the above companies are collected from the Incopat patent information platform. The second part is model construction. A policy knowledge discovery model is designed based on PSR theory and Bayesian network model, which clarifies the theoretical logic among policy response, enterprise R&D status and breakthrough pressure of key core technologies. By adjusting the probability of policy nodes and key technology innovation nodes, we explore the dynamic mechanism of policy on key technology innovation. The third part is analysis and discussion. This section is about decision optimization: we firstly adjust the policy response end and the key core technology pressure end respectively. And then we predict the results and diagnose the causes with reference to the initial solution of PSR-Bayesian network, analyze the dynamic changes of policy intensity, and finally find out the leading policies that affect the innovation performance of key technologies and the bottleneck policies that need to be optimized.
    The study results show that: (1)The policy dynamics change in each stage, the demand-side policy gradually weakens, the supply-side policy gradually strengthens, the environmental regulation policy gradually strengthens, and the environmental support policy shows a trend of first strengthening and then weakening. (2)The results show that there are different policy paths to promote key core technology innovation in each stage. The first stage is the indirect financial market, the second stage is the infrastructure construction, and the third stage is the multi-policy coordination and guidance path. (3)The cause diagnosis shows that there are different policy bottlenecks that restrict the innovation and promotion of key core technologies in each stage. We should identify policies with small positive changes or negative values, and improve the detailed rules and support.
    This innovation of this paper lies in improving various policy dynamic mechanisms of key technology innovation in a complex and uncertain environment, but it also has some limitations, which are mainly reflected in the fact that the intermediate state after the policy action includes not only R&D investment, but also tax rebate and enterprise income, etc., so in-depth research can be conducted in the future from the aspects of improving the node information of intermediate state to explore the complex mechanism of policy.
    Transaction or Cooperation? Research on the Credits Strategy of Automakers under the Dual-credit Policy
    HUO Hong, LUO Dan, YAN Zhanghua
    2024, 33(4):  133-139.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0123
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1290KB) ( )  
    References | Supplementary Material | Related Articles | Metrics
    As the global climate warms, many countries are beginning to take steps to reduce air pollution using legal means. The European Union plans to reduce 40% of carbon emissions by 2030 compared to 1990, and Canada began a carbon tax on companies that emitted carbon dioxide in 2019. In 2020, the Chinese government set an emission reduction target by 40% in carbon dioxide emission intensity per unit of GDP in 2005. To fulfill their responsibilities to reduce carbon emissions, countries around the world are taking action to contribute to solving severe environmental problems. China also promoted the purchase of new energy vehicles through government subsidies to consumers. With the arrival of the dual-credit policy, the subsidy policy has stopped since then. Since implementing the dual-credit policy, some companies that produce new energy vehicles have reportedly earned thousands of dollars in profits on just one new energy vehicle. Implementing the policy has increased hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue for some companies. However, some car manufacturing companies that produce traditional fuel vehicles have suffered severe losses under the dual-credit policy. In the dual-credit policy context, developing appropriate credit strategies and establishing relationships with dealers have become a central issue for companies. In this paper, we study an automakers’ credit strategy selection problem, and explore the optimal decision problem of automakers and dealers based on the policy. This paper provides a corresponding theoretical basis and practical foundation for automobile manufacturers to respond to the policy in time and the national call, and fulfill their corporate responsibilities, which can promote the rapid development of the automotive industry.
    In this paper, the credit trading strategy is set as a direct transaction between automobile manufacturers to obtain or sell new energy credits. The cooperation strategy is a credit strategy selection problem for automobile manufacturers to obtain or sell new energy credits at a particular discount by setting different investment amounts. The transaction strategy is for some automobile manufacturers to purchase credits directly from other automobile manufacturers. When different investment amounts are set, the strategy selection problem of automobile manufacturers is analyzed. The credit trading and cooperation strategies of automobile manufacturers are constructed. We focus on an automobile manufacturer and a dealer and explore the optimal pricing decisions of the automobile manufacturer and dealer based on Stackelberg theory. We obtain the corresponding results by the inverse solution method.In addition, we use a comparative analysis to identify the optimal credit strategy of the automaker and the optimal pricing decision of the supply chain members. We also verify the correctness of our conclusions. Finally, we draw relevant conclusions and lay the foundation for future research.
    In the context of dual-credit policy, we study an automobile supply chain that consists of an automobile manufacturer and a dealer. This paper classifies automakers’ access to credit into credit transaction strategies and cooperative strategies based on their different credit strategy choices. In addition we examine how automakers should make decisions with dealers under different credit strategies. The strategies of automakers and dealers are decentralized and centralized strategies, and the optimal decisions for both are explored. The study results show that: (1)Regardless of the automaker’s credit strategy choice, its centralized strategy with dealers is better than the decentralized strategy. (2)When the automaker’s fuel consumption exceeds the standard, obtaining credits will be better for the credit cooperative strategy. An advantage will be more obvious when the company only needs to invest a small amount of money. When the automaker’s fuel consumption does not exceed the standard,selling excess new energy credits will be better for the credit cooperative strategy. An advantage will be more obvious when the company accepts a more considerable amount of investment. (3)Regardless of an automaker’s chosen strategy, the revenue-sharing contract facilitates supply chain coordination.
    The credit prices of new energy vehicles affect their sales prices and volumes. In order to better meet carbon reduction targets, the government should establish reasonable credit prices to encourage automakers to produce new energy vehicles, improve consumers’ low-carbon preferences, and encourage consumers to develop a green and environmentally friendly lifestyle. In addition, a strong partnership between automakers and dealers will help to increase sales and achieve a win-win situation for both sides.
    Vehicles On-ramp Cellular Automata Simulation in the Internet of Vehicles
    CHEN Qun, YANG Shiyao, XUE Xingjian
    2024, 33(4):  140-146.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0124
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1835KB) ( )  
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    With the rapid development of the social economy, the optimized driving mode of vehicle X interconnection has improved traffic efficiency, maintained traffic safety, and become a future trend. With the introduction of the Internet of Vehicles (IoV), traffic flow simulation under the IoV has become a hot topic. As one of the bottleneck scenarios, the ramp is a classic scenario for studying the solution of traffic congestion and safety problems. However, few scholars choose to study it after the emergence of the Internet of vehicles. This paper takes the ramp as the research object and simulates the vehicle running state under the IoV environment by improving some rules.
    A cellular automaton model of the upper ramp with the main road as a double lane, considering the safe distance and the interconnection of the IoV, is established, and the corresponding simulation experiments are carried out. In view of the on-ramp scenario where the main road is two-lane, the cooperative lane change rule is proposed. A virtual monitoring point is set up between the end cell of ramp section and the beginning cell of acceleration lane. The forced lane change rule is also improved. For the HVs, the HV on the acceleration lane changes lanes after independent judgment when it joins the main road. If the lane change is not possible, to continue until the lane changes is successful. If you reach the end of the acceleration lane and still do not change the lane successfully, wait for a suitable lane change opportunity at the end to change the lane. For the CAVs, the CAV on the ramp finds the location of the vehicle on the slow lane at the next time through pre-judgement, and finds the farthest position within its accessible speed range. At this time, adjust the speed of the vehicle down time, accurately reach the position and change lanes. If the appropriate point is not found, it is judged and predicted until the end of the acceleration lane is reached and the rules for changing lanes are formulated.
    In order to verify the traffic efficiency and safety level under the IoV, a cellular automaton simulation is conducted for the vehicle on ramp process under the high-level IoV, simulating the traffic efficiency and safety situation under the mixed arrangement of CAVs and HVs. When the traffic density is large, the index values of different vehicle arrangements are significantly different.
    In terms of traffic efficiency, the impact of different vehicle arrangements on traffic flow is relatively small at low densities, but significant at medium or high densities. When the density is medium or high, if the penetration rate of CAVs is high in the arrangement, the traffic efficiency is also high. The introduction of CAVs has a promoting effect on the growth of traffic efficiency, while the high penetration of HVs in the arrangement will inhibit the growth of traffic efficiency.
    In terms of traffic safety, in the case of medium density, the possibility of collision between a CAV and a HV is higher but the collision damage is small. HV pure flow will be safe because of low speed. The rest have low collision probability but high damage. In the case of high density, the possibility of collision between three CAVs and three HVs is greater, and the degree of damage is large, which is more dangerous. In the case of high density and dense vehicles, CAVs have a significant positive effect on traffic safety. When the traffic flow is the pure flow of CAVs, the traffic situation is not only efficient, but also safe. In the case of mixed traffic, when the lane change of vehicles can be selected to arrange, the long queue of CAVs should be formed as far as possible to reduce the aggregation of HVs.
    Bounding the Efficiency Loss of Multi-class Stochastic User Equilibrium under ATIS and Road Tolling
    ZHANG Junting, ZHU Wenlong, YE Shunqiang, CHEN Huayou
    2024, 33(4):  147-152.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0125
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1027KB) ( )  
    References | Supplementary Material | Related Articles | Metrics
    With the dramatical increasement of the motor vehicles, many complex traffic problems have emerged. Information induction and congestion tolling strategy are two common and effective traffic management and control methods, guiding or inducing travelers’ route choices to improve system efficiency. Traffic managers often combine the Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) with the congestion tolling strategy, fully utilizing the advantages of both to form an integrated demand management model. As an important part of Intelligent Transportation Systems, ATIS enables the sharing and utilization of traffic information, guiding travelers to make correct route choices. Congestion tolling strategy influences travelers’ decisions by charging road tolls. Regarding the efficiency loss of the heterogeneous traffic network under ATIS, relevant research only considers the impact of the ATIS penetration rate. However, the influence of the information compliance rate is often ignored on the efficiency loss of ATIS. Scholars have already examined the efficiency loss of road tolling strategy. How the efficiency loss of the traffic network changes under the combined effect of ATIS and tolling strategy is an important issue for traffic managers. Therefore, it is necessary to theoretically explore the impact of ATIS and tolling strategy on the efficiency of the traffic network. In this paper, based on different heterogeneities, the efficiency loss of heterogeneous traffic network under ATIS and tolling strategy is discussed.
    Considering that users are heterogeneous in the value of time (VOT) under the road tolling strategy, users have heterogeneity in terms of different information received in a transportation network under ATIS. Based on the two heterogeneities, the efficiency loss of the heterogeneous network is investigated. Firstly, all users are classified into different groups based on the VOT heterogeneity. Then, considering that ATIS essentially depends on the travelers’ response to the traffic information, the information compliance rate is introduced. Taking into account the impact of the ATIS penetration rate and the information compliance rate, users are divided into three classes in each group, i.e., users with ATIS and in compliance with ATIS advice, users with ATIS but not in compliance with ATIS advice, and users without ATIS.Due to the high complexity of heterogeneous traffic networks under ATIS, travelers only have imperfect information about the network and often choose their travel routes with stochastic uncertainty. Therefore, all users are assumed to follow the stochastic user equilibrium (SUE). Under the assumptions of the logit path choice model, a multi-class SUE model and its equivalent variational inequalities based on the time units and monetary units under ATIS and road tolling strategy are presented. While tolls are considered as part of the total system cost, multi-class system optimum (SO) models under two criteria are constructed. Then the efficiency loss of multi-class SUE against the multi-class SO under both criteria is investigated, and then the upper bounds are presented. Furthermore, for the polynomial travel time function, considering the effect of free flow travel time, the analytic expressions of the tighter upper bound of efficiency loss are derived, and further analysis is made on the parameters influencing the upper bounds, focusing on the influence of the ATIS penetration rate and the information compliance rate on the upper bounds of efficiency loss.
    The results show that the upper bounds of the efficiency loss decrease with an increase of ATIS penetration rate and the information compliance rate. Besides, the upper bounds are also related to the link cost functions, the users’ VOT and familiarity with the network, and the complexity of the network. Finally, the conclusions are validated through a numerical example. The results provide theoretical and technical supports for ATIS and road tolling strategy design, and then achieves optimal control of traffic system. The next step will extend our research from a deterministic network to a stochastic network, aiming to investigate the efficiency loss of multi-class equilibrium in a stochastic heterogeneous network.
    Design and Competitive Analysis of Online Selection Strategy for Real-time Orders of Car-hailing Drivers
    WU Xiaoping, LAN Mengyue
    2024, 33(4):  153-158.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0126
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1054KB) ( )  
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    With the rapid development of Internet technology, the online car-hailing industry is also growing, gradually becoming the primary choice for urban residents to travel. However, with the gradual expansion of the scale of online car-hailing, online car-hailing platforms need to effectively match a large number of random orders, and it is difficult for the current scheme to meet the requirements for effective order scheduling. In reality, in order to pursue higher order profits, the phenomenon of “rejecting orders” emerges constantly, which reduces the satisfaction of passengers and the efficiency of vehicle scheduling. In order to improve the response rate of online car-hailing orders and optimize the vehicle scheduling scheme of online car-hailing platforms, this paper uses online algorithms and competition analysis methods to design online strategies to optimize the order decision-making of online car-hailing drivers and improve the income of drivers.
    Most online car-hailing platforms in the market now have two basic order matching systems: Assigning Mode and Grabbing Mode, and the corresponding order services are Real-time Order Service and Reservation Order Service.
    According to the billing rules of the car-hailing companies, when the travel distance of the order exceeds a certain distance, an additional unit price will be charged according to the original billing rules according to the excess distance. This distance is named as the Empty Drive Distance, and the charge is called the Empty Drive Fee.
    This paper discusses the situation where drivers receive real-time orders under assigning mode, and the driving distance of the order is less than the empty drive distance, that is, no empty drive fee will be charged. For drivers, whether they use assigning mode or grabbing mode for order service, only when the online car-hailing platform transmits the passenger order information to the driver and will they know the corresponding service information: the service time of the order, the starting place and destination, the driving distance of order, the driving time of order and the estimated revenue available for serving the order.And they need to immediately decide whether to serve the order based on the above service information. This type of decision maker needs to make decisions about the current state when the future information is partially known or unknown, which is suitable for solving by using online algorithms and competitive analysis methods.
    Online algorithms and competitive analysis methods are mainly used in the field of optimization. The essence of optimization theory is the optimization theory, which is an effective algorithm for solving decision problems under incomplete information. The theory of online algorithms and competitive strategy was first used to solve problems related to machine scheduling, and then ones in the field of computer and finance. As uncertain decision-making problems, online ones are widely used in various fields in real life, such as leasing, procurement, scheduling and so on.Many researches on vehicle scheduling problems are carried out on the basis of in-depth researches on traveling salesman problems.
    According to the method of online algorithm and strategy analysis, after describing the problem of online real-time order selection for online car-hailing drivers and making environmental assumptions, the lower bound of the competitive ratio of this problem is analyzed by analyzing the ratio of the minimum order revenue of online drivers and the maximum revenue of offline drivers. Then, the Profit Threshold strategy (PT strategy) is designed, and by analyzing the competitive ratio lower bound of the strategy, it is proved that online drivers could avoid getting the worst returns by using the PT strategy. Finally, a simple arithmetic case analysis is conducted through Python to demonstrate the practical effect of the designed PT strategy by comparing the total value of the driver’s work gain and the competitive ratio with the lower bound of the competitive ratio.
    The research results of this paper have certain management implications for improving the benefits and work efficiency of car-hailing drivers, platforms and governments. It not only provides suggestions and guidance for improving the benefits of real-time order decision-making for drivers, but also reduces the safety risks of distracted order selection by drivers while driving. Moreover, by reducing the driver’s rejection rate, the scheduling efficiency of the car-hailing platform is improved. Residents’ satisfaction with online car travel has increased, which has also increased the probability of choosing online car travel, and alleviated the environmental governance problems caused by a large number of private cars. Further research from more types of orders may be considered in the future.
    Research on Extended Warranty Service Strategy of Green Supply Chain under Information Asymmetry
    LIN Zhibing, ZHANG Junchao
    2024, 33(4):  159-166.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0127
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1281KB) ( )  
    References | Supplementary Material | Related Articles | Metrics
    Extended warranty service refers to the fact that consumers pay an additional fee to enjoy a period of free repair service after the original warranty period of the product expires, which is an extension of the original warranty of the product. Although the adoption of extended warranty service in China has been relatively recent, the market potential for such service is significant, driven by shifting consumer attitudes and the growth of e-commerce. Particularly in the green product market, due to the immaturity of green materials and green technologies, quality issues with green products frequently occur; the existence of extended warranty service may alleviate consumer concerns about the quality of green products, and has a substantial impact on market demand. In addition, considering the significant uncertainty of demand for green products, channel members often collect information independently to forecast market demand, which may lead to asymmetric market demand information among channel members. In this context, extended warranty service may indirectly influence information sharing among channel members by impacting market demand. However, the specific mechanism of influence of extended warranty service on channel members’ decisions and profits is not yet clear, and issues such as setting extended warranty service prices and selecting extended warranty service modes still need to be urgently studied.
    In the context of information asymmetry in market demand in green supply chains, this study constructs three models: no extended warranty service provided by a retailer, extended warranty service provided by a retailer, and extended warranty service provided by a retailer in cooperation with a third-party enterprise, to explore the impact of extended warranty service on the decisions and information sharing of green supply chain members. The following conclusions are obtained. (1)A retailer can effectively improve the greenness of products and the profits of channel members by providing extended warranty service. Compared to not providing extended warranty service and cooperating with a third-party enterprise to provide extended warranty service, a retailer providing extended warranty service alone has the most optimal positive impact on the greenness of products and the profits of channel members. (2)Under the scenario where a retailer provides extended warranty service alone, information sharing by the retailer benefits the manufacturer but may not necessarily benefit itself and the greenness of products. When the manufacturer predicts lower market demand, the extended warranty service of the retailer will be beneficial for the information sharing of channel members, and vice versa. (3)When the conditions of the extended warranty period are met, the greenness of products and the profits of supply chain members will increase with the extension of the warranty period. However, the extended warranty service price does not always increase with the extension of the warranty period. (4)The impact of the relevance of information forecasting on the profits of channel members will be more significant when the retailer provides extended warranty service.
    The innovations of this paper are mainly reflected in the following aspects. (1)Most studies have explored the impact of different channel modes and extended warranty quality on the price of extended warranty service, while this paper considers the impact of product greenness on the price of extended warranty service based on the particularity of green product repair technology and raw materials. (2)Most existing research on extended warranty service is carried out under the condition of information symmetry, and the influence of information asymmetry is rarely considered. Considering that the green consumer market is not mature and the product demand has a significant uncertainty, this paper considers the extended warranty service strategy under the background of asymmetric demand information.
    Although this paper has obtained some refined conclusions, there are still some expansibility. For example, (1)this study only considers the extended warranty service provided by retailers, and further research is needed to distinguish the difference between the extended warranty service provided by retailers and manufacturers. (2)This study only focuses on a single channel, but the extended warranty service under dual channels is also worthy of further study. (3)In future research, the impact of free extended warranty service on the supply chain can be explored from the perspective of risk aversion.
    Selection and Influencing Factor Analysis of the Digital Upgrade of Capacity-sharing Enterprises Empowered by Digital Technology
    GONG Wenwei, GUO Zixiang, DING Fan, PENG Yongtao
    2024, 33(4):  167-173.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0128
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1565KB) ( )  
    References | Supplementary Material | Related Articles | Metrics
    With the rapid development of modern sharing economy, platform economy and digital economy, the integration of digital technology into manufacturing enterprises is deepening. Based on the perspective of digital technology empowerment, digital upgrading of manufacturing enterprises around the capacity sharing platform has become a new mode of digital upgrading of manufacturing enterprises. In this mode, manufacturing enterprises will access their capacity information to the online platform in real time, provide capacity for the demander, realize capacity sharing, use digital technology to carry out digital upgrading (establish enterprise digital ID cards, upgrade enterprise online management capabilities, and guarantee enterprise digital transactions, etc.), and obtain additional orders through the platform, so as to improve revenue, expand network externality, and enhance enterprise core competitiveness. However, many enterprises are hesitant to implement digital upgrading due to the pressure of cost input and income uncertainty. Manufacturing enterprises are usually cautious about the impact of digital upgrading on their core competitiveness.
     This paper discusses the basic concept of digital upgrading of manufacturing enterprises around the capacity sharing platform, which is different from the mode of digital upgrading of manufacturing enterprises alone. The digital upgrading of manufacturing enterprises based on the capacity sharing platform is an evolutionary game process in which all stakeholders interact through the capacity sharing platform. In order to analyze the digital upgrading process of manufacturing enterprises around the capacity sharing platform, we build an evolutionary game model for capacity sharing enterprises to implement digital upgrading, explore the evolution and stability strategy set of enterprises under the two situations of implementing digital upgrading and not implementing digital upgrading, infer the dynamic evolution path and main influencing factors of implementing digital upgrading, use Matlab to simulate the evolutionary game model, compare and analyze the impact of parameter changes on the evolution results, so as to provide effective theoretical support for the digital upgrading of manufacturing enterprises.
     The results show that potential order return, platform subsidy coefficient, expected return coefficient, upgrade investment risk coefficient, equipment technology similarity and order loss cost have a significant impact on the strategic evolution results of both sides of the game. Among them, increasing potential order return, platform subsidy, and expected return, enhancing equipment technology similarity, reducing upgrade investment risk and order loss cost can all promote the digital upgrading of manufacturing enterprises. When the initial probability of one side of the game choosing the strategy of “implementing digital upgrading” is high, all stakeholders will eventually show a stable evolutionary state (1,1) through continuous learning and adjustment of their own behavior strategies, which is the equilibrium state between manufacturing enterprises and homogeneous enterprises (implementing digital upgrading, implementing digital upgrading). For manufacturing enterprises around the platform, before implementing digital upgrading, enterprises need to conduct prior research on the equipment environment and personnel technology of other homogeneous enterprises on the platform to understand the production capacity and equipment technology similarity of homogeneous enterprises around the platform. With the evolution of the digital upgrading process, enterprises should learn from the digital upgrading process of homogeneous enterprises in the digital upgrading process, enhance enterprise confidence, ultimately achieve win-win, and promote the digital upgrading of enterprises.
    Innovation Efficiency Evaluation of China’s Provincial High-tech Industry Based on Bi-objective DEA Model
    WEI Fangqing, CHU Junfei, YANG Feng
    2024, 33(4):  174-180.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0129
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1212KB) ( )  
    References | Supplementary Material | Related Articles | Metrics
    Innovation is a core driving force of economic growth and a critical factor to promote national competitiveness. High-tech industry, based on knowledge-intensive technologies and the integration of multi-disciplinary technological achievements, is a main source of innovation, an important pillar industry for China’s economic development, and an important force to enhance national scientific and technological competitiveness and industrial core competitiveness. To scientifically and reasonably evaluate the innovation efficiency of high-tech industry is of great significance for optimizing the allocation of innovation resources of high-tech industry, enhancing its innovation competitiveness, and promoting its position in the global industrial chain and supply chain.
    Based on the innovation value chain theory, the high-tech industry innovation activity is generally divided into two successive sub-processes: R&D process and commercialization process. To be specific, R&D process measures the ability to transform R&D inputs into scientific and technological outputs, and commercialization process measures the ability to marketize the scientific and technological achievements.The two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) model has been widely used in innovation efficiency evaluation of high-tech industry. Previous studies usually portray the relationship between the two sub-processes of R&D and commercialization according to the assumption of “leader-following”, and then evaluate the innovation efficiency and sub-process efficiency of high-tech industry, ignoring the cooperative relationship between the R&D and commercialization sub-processes. Strengthening the mutual cooperation between the two sub-processes of R&D and commercialization is important to enhance the innovation efficiency and innovation capacity of high-tech industry, and maintain its sustainable and efficient development. Incorporating the idea of win-win cooperation, this study extends the traditional two-stage DEA model and develops a bi-objective DEA model from the perspective of the cooperation between the R&D process and commercialization process. The proposed bi-objective DEA model treats the two sub-processes equally and equitably, that is, it maximizes each sub-process’s efficiency simultaneously and autonomously and determines the optimal stage weight corresponding to each sub-process. By traversing the Pareto optimal efficiency of two sub-processes, the optimal solution of the bi-objective DEA model can be obtained. Then, taking 29 provincial-level high-tech industries in mainland China as the research object (Qinghai and Tibet are excluded because of data missing), the proposed model is used to evaluate and analyze their overall innovation efficiency, R&D efficiency, and commercialization efficiency of 29 provincial-level high-tech industries in mainland China from 2013 to 2015, which corresponds to three consecutive innovation periods i.e., 2013 represents 2013—2015; 2014 represents 2014—2016; 2015 represents 2015—2017.
    The empirical results show that: First, the overall innovation efficiency of China’s high-tech industry is low, and the innovation efficiency of high-tech industries in half of the provinces is lower than the national average, which indicates much room for improvement. Second, for the vast majority of provinces, the R&D efficiency is greater than the commercialization efficiency, and the low commercialization efficiency is the main reason for the low overall innovation efficiency. Third, there exists a difference in the overall innovation efficiency, R&D efficiency, and commercialization efficiency of high-tech industries between provinces as well as regions. Specifically, the eastern area has the best overall innovation efficiency and sub-process efficiency, while the northeastern one performs the worst in terms of overall and sub-process efficiency. The central area has better overall innovation efficiency and commercialization efficiency than the western one, but performs worse in R&D efficiency than the western one. Last, we divide 29 provincial-level high-tech industries into four categories according to R&D efficiency and commercialization efficiency: high R&D efficiency and high commercialization efficiency, low R&D efficiency and high commercialization efficiency, low R&D efficiency and low commercialization efficiency, and high R&D efficiency and low commercialization efficiency. And then we propose specific strategies for improving the innovation efficiency of each provincial high-tech industry. This study enriches the theory and method of innovation evaluation, and provides a new perspective for the evaluation of innovation efficiency of high-tech industries, which has an important theoretical value and practical significance.
    Joint Emission Reduction Strategies and Coordination Mechanism Disturbed by Dynamic Demand in a Dual-channel Chain
    ZHOU Huini, ZHANG Bin, TAN Yong, WU Peng
    2024, 33(4):  181-187.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0130
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1327KB) ( )  
    References | Supplementary Material | Related Articles | Metrics
    As the quality of the environment decreases, enterprises and consumers’ awareness of environmental protection constantly improves. More and more enterprises begin to increase their investment in carbon emission reduction and attract environmentally friendly consumers to buy low-carbon products through advertising. The results can provide a theoretical basis for the joint emission strategy of supply chain members in a low-carbon environment.
    In this paper, a dual-channel low-carbon supply chain composed of a manufacturer and a retailer is taken as a research object. Firstly, an uncertain market demand is assumed to be dynamically influenced by product emission reduction and retailers’ low-carbon advertising, and the demand model is extended. Secondly, based on the differential game theory, the optimal solution of the dual-channel supply chain under strategic alliance, decentralization and cooperation are analyzed. Thirdly, the Shapley value method is used to realize the coordination of dual-channel low-carbon supply chain. Finally, the related properties are analyzed and verified by simulation.
    The main results show that: 1)The joint emission reduction strategy has played a positive role in the dual-channel supply chain, making the profits of its members and the whole continuously rise. 2)Strategic alliance is the best strategy, realizing the Pareto optimality of low-carbon supply chain. At the same time, under certain conditions, the cooperative advertising and cost-sharing contract for emission reduction are more effective than the cooperative advertising contract. The stronger the consumers’ preference for direct sales channels and low-carbon products is, the greater the possibility of supply chain members adopting the cooperative contract is. 3)The wholesale price and customer’s channel loyalty have a significant influence on the retailer’s optimal strategy. 4)The application of the Shapley value method can effectively distribute the excess profits under the strategic alliance according to the contribution rate of manufacturers and retailers, and realize the system coordination.
    This paper will focus on the analysis of the optimal strategy when the manufacturer is the game leader. However, in management practice, with the continuous growth of retailers, they will also become the leader of the secondary supply chain, such as e-commerce giants like Suning and Jingdong. Therefore, whether this situation will change is a question that needs to be further discussed. Secondly, this paper suggests that consumers are active advocates of low-carbon products. However, in real life, for some price sensitive people, the price of low-carbon products is generally high, so they will not choose to buy them. Therefore, for enterprises, how to consider consumer heterogeneity in pricing strategies and advertising and marketing strategies is also the direction of future research.
    Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance on Individual Occupation Choice
    WANG Yu, HU Teng, JIANG Jieshu
    2024, 33(4):  188-193.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0131
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (944KB) ( )  
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Affected by the downward pressure on the economy and the epidemic, the employment situation in China is relatively severe. Digital inclusive finance in the form of mobile payment, online investment, digital insurance, and online lending has unique advantages of high efficiency, elimination of information asymmetry and low cost by virtue of its online advantages, which not only effectively avoids the phenomenon of people gathering, but also highly matches the needs of small and medium-sized enterprises. At the same time, encouraging the public to start their own businesses also requires financial support, so in the post epidemic era, whether our government can alleviate the severe employment situation and restore economic development, digital inclusive finance will play a crucial role. Therefore, the study on the impact of digital inclusive finance on career choice is crucial.
    Employment is the most basic livelihood issue, affecting production, consumption, income, import and export and so on, and is the basis for the realization of economic prosperity and development. One of the important micro-expressions of the employment issue is the individual’s career choice. (1)As a supplement to traditional finance, digital inclusive finance can provide convenient and fast financial services for remote and backward places, reduce the cost of local financial services, and thus have a certain impact on the career choice of individuals in remote and backward areas. (2)Digital inclusive finance can assess the risk of small and micro-entrepreneurial enterprises at a lower cost, significantly reducing the financing cost of small and micro-enterprises. (3)Digital inclusive finance, an emerging form of finance, injects fresh blood into innovative activities, thus affecting individuals’ career choices.
    The development of digital finance has become an indispensable component of alleviating the severe employment situation in our country. This article explores the impact of digital finance development on individual occupation choices by the Probit model, combined with the micro data of the CFPS China Social Family Tracking Survey. The results finds that: (1)The empirical test finds that the development of digital inclusive finance has a significant role in promoting entrepreneurial decision-making and employment decision-making, but it has a greater role in promoting entrepreneurial decision-making and has a greater positive impact on non-agricultural employment decision-making. (2)Through the analysis of heterogeneous impact, it can be seen that the development of digital inclusive finance has a greater role in promoting the employment of rural and urban individuals; it has a greater role in promoting female employees and entrepreneurs than male ones; it has a greater role in promoting young employees and entrepreneurs than old ones; it has a greater role in promoting employees with high human capital than with low one; it has a greater role in promoting employees and entrepreneurs who are not Party members than those who are Party members. The research conclusions of this article show that the development of digital inclusive finance is conducive to the recovery of economic development after the epidemic.
    This study further tries to construct a mathematical model to deeply investigate the theoretical mechanism of digital inclusive finance on career choice. In addition, in terms of empirical analysis, the issues of mediating and moderating effects of digital inclusive finance on career choice can be tested to make this study richer and more complete.
    Can Carbon Emission Trading Improve Regional Environmental Pollution? ——Based on the Test of Synthetic Control Method in Seven Pilot Provinces and Cities
    GAO Kai, ZHAO Yi, HU Bin
    2024, 33(4):  194-199.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0132
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1234KB) ( )  
    References | Supplementary Material | Related Articles | Metrics
    Integrating low-carbon development into environmental protection is not only an important issue for today’s societal development, but also a crucial aspect of achieving sustainable development. Facing the challenges of global climate change, the carbon emission trading policy, as an essential market mechanism, plays a significant role in promoting low-carbon development and environmental protection. To delve deeper into the synergistic governance effect of the carbon emission trading policy on environmental pollution, this paper conducts a comprehensive evaluation of regional environmental pollution based on provincial panel data from 2000 to 2017. It further employs synthetic control and difference-in-differences methods to thoroughly analyze the effects and mechanisms of the carbon emission trading policy.
    In the comprehensive evaluation of regional environmental pollution, this article takes into account multiple factors such as water pollution, carbon emissions, and sulfur dioxide emissions, conducting a comprehensive assessment of the degree and trends of environmental pollution. In the analysis of the impact of carbon emission trading policy, this article adopts the synthetic control method, which constructs a counterfactual framework to compare changes in environmental pollution before and after the implementation of carbon emission trading policy. The research finds that carbon emission trading policy can significantly reduce regional environmental pollution, and this policy effect exhibits a certain degree of heterogeneity among different regions. At the same time, this article further explores the impact mechanism of carbon emission trading policy. Through the analysis of the double difference method, it is found that the policy mainly improves regional environmental pollution through two paths: enhancing technological levels and optimizing energy structures.
    Based on the research conclusions, this article proposes the following policy recommendations: (1)China should establish a carbon emission trading mechanism tailored to local conditions nationwide to fully leverage its role in reducing environmental pollution. Different regions and industries should formulate differentiated carbon emission trading policies and standards based on their own characteristics and development needs. (2)We should further improve and optimize the energy structure, to promote the development and application of clean energy. By increasing the research and development and promotion of clean energy technologies, and improving energy utilization efficiency, we can effectively reduce carbon emission and environmental pollution. (3)We should enhance technological vitality, encourage and support the research and application of environmental protection technologies. By increasing investment in technological innovation, promoting breakthroughs and transformational applications in environmental protection technologies, and improving the level of industrial environmental protection, we can provide strong support for the continuous improvement of environmental pollution.
    This article provides useful references and insights for the formulation and implementation of environmental policies in China through an in-depth research and discussion on the synergistic governance effect of carbon emission trading policy on environmental pollution. This article takes into account the synergistic governance effect of policies, but the limitation lies in the insufficient comprehensiveness of the indicator system for describing environmental pollution. Future research can consider more factors such as air pollution, water pollution, and soil pollution to more objectively describe the degree of environmental pollution. Furthermore, we can further explore the synergistic effect between carbon emission trading policy and other environmental policies such as environmental taxes, emission trading, etc., and how they jointly contribute to the governance of environmental pollution.
    Research on Forecast Model of Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Logistics Demand Based on BA-SVR Hybrid Model
    WANG Yunfang, SHI Yi, CHEN Lihua
    2024, 33(4):  200-205.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0133
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (955KB) ( )  
    References | Supplementary Material | Related Articles | Metrics
    Changes in logistics demand information in the fresh fruit and vegetable market belong to a very complex nonlinear process, with numerous influencing variables that are difficult to quantify. This article attempts to construct the Fruit & Vegetable Logistics Index (FVLI), which is mainly used to reflect demand level of local fruit and vegetable market and is also an important indicator to reflect changes in regional logistics market information. In theory, this study can predict demand for logistics and improve overall efficiency of the fruit and vegetable fresh supply chain. In practice, it can avoid bullwhip effect caused by imbalance of supply and demand, which can lead to price spikes in fruit and vegetable fresh markets, providing reference for government and business decision-makers.
    The first step of research process is to use Internet big data search technology to select influencing factors through online search, find six major influencing factors such as logistics, economy, supply, demand, policies and regulations, and level of scientific and technological development, and then build a network keyword lexicon related to the index. 36 secondary indicators are obtained from six major primary indicators. The second step is to avoid multicollinearity caused by high correlation between variables that cannot pass the significance test. Pearson correlation analysis and stepwise regression are used to select the final predictor for correlation between variables, and significance levels can be used. The third step is to combine penalty coefficient, insensitivity, and kernel parameters determined by bat algorithm, normalize crawler data, and construct an evaluation system for measuring prediction accuracy. The fourth step is to evaluate the fitness of parameters determined by bat algorithm, compare results before and after optimization. The fifth step is to use data for eight years as actual values to obtain estimated predicted values. The results are then reversed to obtain test result data, which preliminarily indicates that theBA-SVR hybrid prediction model has strong robustness, fast convergence speed, and high prediction accuracy. Finally, BA-SVR hybrid model will be used as benchmark model for comparison with traditional models and neural networks.
    The article attempts to construct a demand index for fresh fruit and vegetable logistics, and combines machine learning and statistical knowledge to provide an improved method that can be used for predicting demand for fresh fruit and vegetable logistics. The optimization model has good generalization abilities, among which innovation is mainly reflected in the following three points: Firstly, to construct a prediction index for the demand for fresh fruits and vegetables, and propose applicable scope and assumed conditions. The second point is to combine network big data and Python software for data crawler collection and processing. The third point is to use classical machine learning method of support vector machine to optimize free parameters that exist in support vector regression using the bat algorithm. By updating and iterating, the optimization value of free parameters is finally determined, and a BA-SVR hybrid prediction model is constructed. By taking advantage of Bat Algorithm (BA) in automatically updating iterative parameters, it is introduced into the Support Vector Regression model to optimize the free parameter values in the SVR model, simulate and empirically predict demand change trend of fresh fruit and vegetable in Beijing, which has a good theoretical value and practical application significance.
    Natural Gas Consumption Prediction of High-order Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Based on Double Concave Convex Transformation
    WANG Qingqing, LUO Zhengshan, GAO Yiqiong, WANG Xiaomin
    2024, 33(4):  206-211.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0134
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1023KB) ( )  
    References | Supplementary Material | Related Articles | Metrics
    The consumption of natural gas is an important indicator reflecting a country’s energy utilization and demand. If it can be scientifically and reasonably predicted, this will be of great significance for the formulation of natural gas pricing strategies, national economic accounting, and optimization of pipeline network design. However, existing methods for predicting natural gas consumption have insufficient performance in describing causal relationships and modeling dynamic systems. Therefore, this paper proposes to use high-order fuzzy cognitive maps for predicting natural gas consumption. This method combines the advantages of cognitive map models and fuzzy theory, and has many advantages in adaptability and fuzzy reasoning.
    Regarding the problem of one-dimensional time series prediction, some scholars have proposed a wavelet high-order fuzzy cognitive map, which uses redundant Hale wavelet transformation to transform one-dimensional time series data into multi-dimensional for prediction. However, the limitation of this algorithm is that it requires prior knowledge of training, validation, and prediction data, which is unreasonable. The high-order fuzzy cognitive map prediction based on biconvex transformation proposed in this article only requires knowledge of the data to be processed, namely training and validation data, and can be directly predicted without the need to know the specific values of the original prediction data. That is to say, wavelet high-order fuzzy cognitive map prediction is more about solving a fitting problem than a prediction problem. The method proposed in this article is more in line with the true meaning of prediction.
    This article proposes a high-order fuzzy cognitive map based on biconvex transformation to solve the problem of difficult processing of one-dimensional natural gas consumption time series prediction using high-order fuzzy cognitive maps. Firstly, when inputting data, the high-order fuzzy cognitive graph learning algorithm requires the input data to be a time series larger than one dimension, while the obtained data is only one dimension. To increase the data dimension, it is proposed to perform corresponding mathematical transformation on the obtained one-dimensional time series to meet the input requirements of the high-order fuzzy cognitive graph learning algorithm. There are many functions for transforming data, but considering practicality and the simplicity of subsequent inverse calculations, it is proposed to perform different forms of nonlinear transformation on one-dimensional time series data.
    Secondly, the transfer function is an important component of high-order fuzzy cognitive maps, controlling the range of output. This article aims to improve the nonlinear expression ability of the transfer function for numerical transformation between small cells. A new transfer function with concave convex features is obtained by redesigning it using a non-linear quadratic function fitting method. It should be noted that the concept of concavity convex design here is different from the data dimensionality enhancement technique of concavity convex transformation on one-dimensional time series, and only because both have concavity convex characteristics, they are called double concavity convex transformation.
    Finally, an empirical analysis is conducted based on natural gas consumption data from 2000 to 2019 across the country and 30 provinces. The empirical process of prediction mainly includes three modules: data preprocessing, model construction, and data prediction. (1)Data preprocessing module: Firstly, we divide the input data into three parts: training set, validation set, and testing set. Next, the obtained one-dimensional time series data with a length of M is subjected to concavity convex transformation to increase its dimensionality, converting the one-dimensional data into three-dimensional data. Finally, the three-dimensional data is normalized. (2)Model construction module: it mainly includes weight matrix solving and cross validation. The solution of weight matrix involves using a newly designed g(x)-transfer function to solve the weight vector wn of high-order fuzzy cognitive maps, thereby further constructing the weight matrix of K-order fuzzy cognitive maps. Cross validation: it mainly utilizes cross validation of the validation set to optimize the order K and regularization parameter α of the ridge regression problem. (3)Data prediction module: we obtain corresponding values through a high-order fuzzy cognitive map model, and perform normalization and non-linear data concavity convex transformation to obtain the final predicted value.
    The empirical results show that, firstly, on the basis of increasing the dimensionality of the data through concavity convex transformation, the prediction results of the high-order fuzzy cognitive map using the newly designed transfer function are better than those based on the traditional transfer function. The applicability rate of the new transfer function is as high as 96.4%. Secondly, comparing the predicted results of both methods with ARIMA and GM(1,1), it is found that the applicability of the proposed method can reach 87.1%, further verifying the effectiveness of the proposed method.
    This article mainly focuses on the prediction of one-dimensional time series using high-order fuzzy cognitive maps. Future research directions will consider the modeling and prediction of multi-dimensional time series using high-order fuzzy cognitive maps, as well as the prediction of one-dimensional and multidimensional time series using different fuzzy cognitive maps.
    How Does Short Selling Influence Performance Target Setting: Perspective from Heterogeneous Ownership
    XUAN Yang, CHENG Bo, LIU Shujun
    2024, 33(4):  212-217.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0135
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (950KB) ( )  
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Performance targets form a critical foundation for various internal and external activities for a firm, including budgeting, resource allocation, compensation incentives, and evaluation. By setting performance targets, firms integrate their vision and strategy into day-to-day operations. Performance target setting should not only consider economic factors such as market conditions but also align with the firm’s strategic and operational objectives. Firms with heterogeneous ownership structures have distinct operational objectives: private firms are primarily driven by profit motives, while state-owned enterprises (SOE) bear social responsibilities for maintaining the stability of the real economy and capital markets in addition to profitability. Focusing on China’s gradual deregulation of short-selling restrictions, our study employs a difference-in-differences model to examine how short selling influences the performance targets setting behavior for firms with different ownership structures. The short-selling deregulation allows negative information to be incorporated more timely into stock prices, leading to a decline in overvalued stock prices and an increase in stock price crash risk. On the other hand, short selling constrains the earnings management behaviors. In this scenario, would firms strategically adjust their performance targets? Are performance targets different between SOE and private firms with distinct responsibilities and motives?
    This paper measures performance targets using budgeting data on sales revenue disclosed in the “Management Discussion and Analysis” section of listed companies’ annual reports. Based on the natural experiment of the gradual short-selling deregulation in China, this study employs a difference-in-differences model with a sample of A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2016, and finds that SOE lower their performance targets after short-selling deregulation, while no such effect is observed in private firms. A series of robustness tests, such as parallel trending tests, PSM-DID, and Heckman two-stage regression tests, indicate the robustness of our findings. Our further analysis reveals that our primary effect is more salient in SOE with limited future revenue manipulation space. Moreover, lowering performance targets promote the probability of beating the targets, further improving stock price crash risk for SOE. Overall, the research findings indicate that, after short-selling deregulation SOE set lower performance targets to increase the probability of meeting such targets and, consequently, alleviate stock price crash risk. Our findings suggest that SOE consider the need to maintain the stability of the capital market when setting performance targets.
    Our research findings contribute to the existing literature on performance target setting, broaden the understanding of economic consequences of short selling, and facilitate a deeper understanding of the differentiated behaviors for firms with different ownership. Our research findings offer insights into the role of SOE in the capital market. Besides profit objectives, SOE also need to consider social responsibilities such as maintaining capital market stability. Abnormal stock price fluctuations hurt capital market stability, and thus, SOE need to take the lead in mitigating stock price fluctuations to safeguard capital market stability and prevent the outbreak of financial risks. On the other hand, although easier performance targets can prevent stock price crash risk, setting lower targets makes firms difficult to tap into its deeper potential, fails to reflect the genuine resource demands and consequently hinders the improvement of profitability. Therefore, SOE should balance profit and social demands in future reforms, stimulate their potential through incentive and governance mechanisms, and better serve the development of both the capital market and real economy.
    Management Science
    Research on High Quality Encroachment Strategy of Contract Manufacturers under Asymmetric Information of Consumer Preference
    MIN Jie, XU Xiaoyu, OU Jian, CAO Zonghong
    2024, 33(4):  218-225.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0136
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1305KB) ( )  
    References | Supplementary Material | Related Articles | Metrics
    In the past decades, many Contract Manufacturers (CMs) manufactured products for Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs). Since CMs have mastered the knowledge and technology of OEMs in the production process, they have the ability to develop products by themselves. Therefore, many CMs encroach the market by establishing their own brands, which are called private brands. Most of the previous studies have assumed the quality of encroached products to be lower than that of OEM’s products. However, in reality, there are quite a few CMs that encroach the market with high quality products. In addition, since manufacturer encroachment is affected by supply chain information structure, some researches have studied the encroachment problem under the combination of information asymmetry and quality factors. They can be roughly divided into two aspects: one is the information asymmetry between consumers and enterprises about product quality level; the other is the information asymmetry between enterprises about market demand. However, they do not consider the information asymmetry of consumers’ quality preference.
    Based on the above background, this paper designs a two-level supply chain consisting of a CM and an OEM, in which a CM not only provides the OEM services, but also may introduce high-quality private products to compete with an OEM. Simultaneously, because the OEM has a better understanding of consumers, this paper also constructs an information asymmetry model of consumer quality preference. That is, heterogeneous consumers have different quality preferences for the same product, in which the OEM can obtain the specific distribution of consumer quality preference and know whether consumers prefer high quality or low quality overall. The CM only knows the probability of high or low distribution of consumer quality preference. In addition, since the CM can infer the true preference information by observing the OEM pricing, there is a signal game between the two sides. Based on this, we analyze the influences of different information structures and the CM high-quality encroachment decisions on the pricing and profit of supply chain members.
    In the following paper, four supply chain decision models of the CM encroachment or non-encroachment under two kinds of information structure are established by using the game theory, and the equilibrium pricing and optimal profit of each member are deduced by backward induction. After obtaining the equilibrium result, we first compare the profits of the CM and OEM in four cases to get the CM’s decision to encroach. At the same time, we also discuss the influence of information structure on profits of both sides. Then, in order to obtain the conditions of consumer market clearing, we compare the price of the OEM’s product with market clearing price. Subsequently, we explore the impact of the OEM product quality level on the CM profit under different costs of sales differences. Finally,in the extension model, we discuss the role of having an information advantage for the OEM.
    Through the above analysis, our research shows that: (1)The CM’s encroachment is always beneficial to itself, but not to the OEM. (2)Information asymmetry always harms the CM’s interests, but only will harm the OEM’s profits when the CM encroaches and the difference between high and low preference markets is large. (3)If the preference of the real market is relatively high, and the CM without information has weak confidence in the market,the equilibrium pricing of the OEM’s products can satisfy the needs of all consumers. (4)If the CM does not encroach or encroach under information symmetry, improving the quality of the OEM’s products can improve both manufacturers’ profits. However, if the CM encroaches under asymmetric information, the impact of the OEM’s product quality on the CM revenue will be related to the cost of the CM’s products sold. We further discuss the role of consumer preference information, and find that in most cases the OEM benefits itself more without access to consumer information.
    Mixed Ownership Reform, Transnational Technology Licensing and Social Welfare ——A Research Based on Mixed Oligopoly Model
    LI Panyi, HU Dan
    2024, 33(4):  226-232.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0137
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (1183KB) ( )  
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Transnational technology licensing is of great significance for developing countries to accelerate technological innovation and leverage their latecomer advantages to achieve economic catch-up. Transnational technology licensing may have an impact on domestic market competition and social welfare. Many Chinese industries are in a mixed oligopoly competition pattern, and the different business objectives of enterprises with different ownership types may affect the licensing decisions, thereby affecting the level of social welfare. Furthermore, will the mixed ownership reform currently being promoted in China change the licensing strategy of foreign technology holders? And what impact will it have on the effectiveness of technology dissemination and overall social welfare? So far, there is little literature that provides answers to the above questions.
    Combining mixed ownership reform with technology licensing, this article constructs a mixed oligopoly model for a foreign technology holder who does not participate in market competition to engage in transnational technology licensing. It analyzes the optimal licensing objects and scope for the technology holder in both mixed monopoly and private monopoly markets, and compares the changes in the technology holder’s licensing strategies before and after mixed ownership reform. At the same time, by comparing the domestic welfare levels in two markets, this study explores whether mixed ownership reform is conducive to unleashing the domestic social welfare effects of transnational technology licensing.
    Through analyzling the model, it is found that the optimal licensing range for the technology holder under any market structure depends on the cost gap between the public firm and the private firm, and degree of technological innovation. There is an uncertainty about whether the privatization of public enterprises can improve the level of social welfare in a country during transnational technology licensing. Only when there is a significant cost gap or degree of technological innovation, privatization is conducive to improving the social welfare brought by transnational technology licensing.
    The research findings have certain practical implications for guiding the transnational technology licensing decisions of enterprises at the micro level, as well as for the formulation of technology introduction policies by the Chinese government and the promotion of mixed ownership reform at the macro level. Especially in combination of the current mixed ownership reform being promoted in China, this study shows that the reform does not necessarily bring about an improvement in the efficiency of innovative resource allocation. Therefore, the development of mixed ownership economy should comprehensively analyze the production technology environment of different industries and efficiency of enterprises, and prudently promote mixed ownership reform in order to promote the dissemination and application of advanced technology.
    In the future research, this paper can be expanded from the following two aspects. The first is to introduce the parameter reflecting the degree of privatization of public enterprises, further analyzing the impact of different degrees of mixed ownership reforms on the domestic welfare effects of transnational technology licensing. The second is to relax the assumption that discriminatory technology licensing is not allowed in the country, and compare the possible impacts of mixed ownership reform on social welfare when implementing different competition policies in the field of intellectual property.
    Executives’ Science & Engineering and Humanities & Social Science Education Background and Firm Innovation
    PENG Fangping, HE Jin’an, LIAO Jingxian
    2024, 33(4):  233-239.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2024.0138
    Asbtract ( )   PDF (962KB) ( )  
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    At present, China’s economy is facing transformation and upgrading, and how to drive growth through innovation has attracted wide attention from the academic circles. This paper aims to provide some empirical evidence for the above view from the perspective of the impact of CEO education background differences in science & engineering and humanities & social science on firm innovation.
    This paper constructs a CEO educational background database by means of database information matching and manual collection and collation, and uses double/debiased machine learning (DML) method to empirically analyze the impact of CEO professional educational background on enterprise innovation and its mechanism. The research in this paper finds that a CEO with the education background in science & engineering has a positive effect on firm innovation, compared with one with the education background in the humanities & social sciences. A CEO with the education background in science & engineering can significantly improve firm innovation. Compared with high-tech firms, the above-mentioned differences in general firms are more significant. Meanwhile, a CEO with higher education background in science & engineering has a more obvious positive impact on quality of innovation output of firms. Mechanism research further shows that a CEO with professional education background in science and engineering promote firm innovation by strengthening enterprise innovation team building, increasing the intensity of innovation investment, and improving the efficiency of innovative research and development.
    The main contributions of this paper are as follows. (1)At the present stage, the impact of CEO human capital on firm innovation is being widely paid attention to from industry and academia. Some research mainly focuses on the impact of CEO education degree, personality, tenure, education background and various experiences on firm innovation. This paper systematically examines the influence of a CEO with the education background in science & engineering and one in humanities & social science on the firm innovation output quantity and output quality, and the research perspective is more comprehensive and in-depth. Meanwhile, this paper further puts forward and empirically tests the three action mechanisms, that is, a CEO with the education background in science & engineering promotes firm innovation by strengthening enterprise innovation team construction, improving the intensity of innovation investment in technology, and improving the efficiency of research and development innovation. (2)Unlike the existing literature, which usually uses traditional metrology regression models, this paper makes empirical studies using a more cutting-edge DML method. In recent years, measurement policy evaluation models in the context of machine learning drive have achieved rapid development, which is the cutting-edge approach in which the DML method was born. The DML method can effectively overcome the shortcomings of traditional linear methods. Therefore, the conclusions of this paper will be more reliable and robust.
    This paper transfers the influence of professional talents from national macro level to the micro level of firm, and deeply discusses the influence of CEO education background on firm innovation and its mechanism of action. On the one hand, our findings provide new basis for the recruitment for high-level talents, to build the recruitment mechanism of executives especially CEO. On the other hand, our findings help firms to standardize the corporate governance system, improve the innovation ability of firms, and effectively promote the rapid and steady growth of the whole national economy.
[an error occurred while processing this directive]