Table of Content

25 September 2022, Volume 31 Issue 9

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Double Conference Servers Location Problem

XU Yi, CHEN Ying

2022, 31(9):  1-6.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0277

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The median location problem is always a hot issue in management science. In this paper, we consider the double conference servers location problem. Let P be a set of n points in the plane. The double conference servers location problem is to find a dipolar spanning tree spans P and minimize the sum of the distance among all pairs of leaves on this tree. In this paper, we show the key geometry structure and propose the exact algorithm which solves this problem in time.

Research on Location Selection of Multi-level Emergency Logistics Facilities under Uncertain Conditions

YAN Sen, QI Jin-ping

2022, 31(9):  7-13.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0278

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In order to conduct on the location of emergency logistics facilities, a multi-level emergency logistics network including distribution centers, distribution points and demand points is established. Based on the characteristics of the uncertainty of emergency material demand, triangular fuzzy numbers are used to express the uncertainty of emergency material demand, and the emergency rescue cost and time are considered at the same time, and then the location model of emergency logistics facilities is established. The triangular fuzzy number transforms into a certain number by defuzzification method, multiple goals convert into relative values by using the optimal result of the single goal of cost and time, and then time and cost goals are weighted, which eliminates the unit and quantity differences of different targets and can also be adjusted dynamically. A genetic algorithm is designed to solve the model. The actual calculation example shows that the model and algorithm can effectively solve the problem of emergency logistics facility location.

Stackelberg Game Model and Strategy Research between the Platform and Passengers under the New Rules of Ride-hailing Services

LEI Li-cai, GAO Shang

2022, 31(9):  14-20.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0279

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For the past years, ride-hailing services, consisting of Didi and Uber, have brought a new choice to the travel of urban residents. However, with the promulgation of new policies and the emergence of industrial monopoly giants in China, whether ride-hailing platform will drop subsides and improve prices becomes the most concern for consumers and the hot problem discussed at present. The Stackelberg model between platform and passengers is established to analyze the impact of platform's strategy(subsidy and commission)on market equilibrium and the optimal trip decision behaviors of passengers. The theoretical research and simulation results indicate that the reasonable subsidy and commission mechanism can effectively avoid the risk of administrative cost increasing and the loss of passenger resources, and can increase revenue of the whole system and further achieve the Pareto optimal of society.

Evolutionary Game Analysis of Government Data Quality Management in Digital Economy Era

ZHU Ling-yao, ZHOU Li, LIU Hu-wei

2022, 31(9):  21-27.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0280

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The development of government digitalization produces a large amount of government data, and the increase of data volume brings data quality management problems. It is urgent to establish and improve the management and control mechanism of government data quality. Based on the game theory, this paper constructs the evolutionary game model of the central government, local government 1 and local government 2 on the government data quality management, investigates the behavior and stability analysisof the three participants on the government data quality management, and uses numerical simulation to explore the evolutionary trajectory and stable state of the game system. The result shows that the government data quality management of local governments cannot be self-developed to a balanced state, and the central government's participation in supervision and management is an important factor to promote the local governments to make a difference, and it is also an effective way to promote the local governments to carry out government data quality management. Finally, from the perspective of mechanism design, this paper analyzes the role of central government participation in promotinglocal government data management, and puts forward corresponding policy suggestions.

The Weighted Position Value for HypergraphGames

SHAN Er-fang, XIE Na-na, WANG Guang-ming

2022, 31(9):  28-33.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0281

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In the general model of cooperative game, it is always assumed that all coalitions can be formed. However, in practice, due to the constraints of some factors, some coalitions can not be formed. Based on this, Myerson proposed a cooperative game with graph communication structures. The Myerson value and position value are two important allocation rules in hypergraph games. In 2005, Slikker gave an axiomatic characterization of position values on graph games. However, the axiomatic characterization of position values in hypergraph games is still up in the air. In this paper, by introducing the axiom of weighted balanced conference contributions, and combining with the classical component efficiency, the axiomatic characterization of weighted positioning values on hypergraph games is proposed. As a corollary, the problem of axiomatic characterization of position values on hypergraph games is solved.

A Game Study of the Patent Strategy of Standardized Participating Enterprises from the Perspective of Rent-seeking Preference

ZHAI Dong-sheng, JIN Yuan-yuan, HUANG Yi, HE Xi-jun, XU Shuo, HU Han-qing

2022, 31(9):  34-40.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0282

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Patent inclusion criteria make the conflict between the public welfare of criteria and the self-interest of patents more obvious. Some enterprises' rent-seeking behavior for their low-value patents in the process of patent standardization will inevitably affect the enthusiasm of other enterprises for continuous research and development, which is not conducive to the construction of standards and the development of innovation. Based on the perspective of rent-seeking preference, we us enterprise patent portfolio theory to build the patent behavior game model, analyze the enterprises intrinsic motivation in standardization with numerical simulation of the evolution of enterprise patent behavior, and to explore the influence factors of enterprise of standard essential patents rent-seeking. The results show that the enterprises that apply for timely patents have certain characteristics. When the intensity of the patent portfolio of participating enterprises is large enough, enterprises tend to seek rent for SEP patents. For the exclusive patent standardization competition, the success of patent rent-seeking depends on the ratio of the strength of the patent portfolio between the competitors and the enterprise itself. The results of this study are expected to provide support for Chinese enterprises to participate in international standardized patent decision-making.

Platform Dynamic Incentive, Consumer Adoption and Digital Content Innovation-A Three-party Evolutionary Game Analysis

HE Qi, HU Bin, WANG Ru-yi

2022, 31(9):  41-48.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0283

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In order to explore the influence mechanism of multiple participants on the process of digital content innovation, by defining the stakeholders of digital content innovation activities and analyzing their respective behavior logic, this study constructs a three-party evolutionary game model of digital content platform, digital content provider and digital content consumer. By solving the replication dynamic equation and using MATLAB software simulation analysis, the strategy evolution path of the three-party game in digital content innovation is simulated. The research results show that the digital content innovation mechanism is a process of continuous collaborative evolution in the tripartite dynamic game of leading innovation incentive by the digital content platform, selective innovation by the digital content provider and adoption by the digital consumer to support innovation, The compensation of the digital content platform for the innovation and adoption decision-making of the digital content consumer and the revenue sharing proportion of the digital content provider have a decisive impact on the digital content innovation. The research conclusions provide relevant countermeasures and suggestions for improving the digital content innovation mechanism from the perspective of platform economy.

Dynamic Admission Decision Model Considering Patient Balking Behavior

JIANG Yan-ping, YANG Fei-fei, SUN Can

2022, 31(9):  49-55.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0284

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The contradiction between supply and demand of beds in large public hospitals is increasingly prominent. As a service system, it is necessary for hospitals to consider the patient's strategic behavior caused by untimely response speed of the hospital bed demand. In this paper, a dynamic admission decision problem considering patient balking behavior is proposed, and an admission decision method suitable for waiting patients with chronic diseases is developed. The purpose is to improve the patients' satisfaction, and effectively weigh the number of multiple patients received, and reduce the frequency of patient balking behavior caused by the slow response speed in the department. Firstly, this paper gives the mathematical description of the dynamic admission decision problem considering balking behavior and defines the symbol. Then we analyze the influence factors of the patient balking behavior and construct the balking probability function. Further, we establish the Markov decision process (MDP) model of the dynamic admission decision considering patient balking behavior and design value iteration algorithm to solve it according to the characteristics of this model. Finally, we design a numerical example to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.

Research of Consumers and the Retailer Optimization Decisions Based on BOPS with Return Policy

ZUO Xiao-de, LAN Xian-gang, HUANG Qin

2022, 31(9):  56-62.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0285

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In this paper, under the BOPS model of omni-channel retail, we consider allowing returns to study the problem of consumer channel selection. First, the consumer and retailer decision-making under traditional dual-channel and dual-channel implementation of BOPS is investigated. Then we add the return setting, and re-study and compare the decision-making of the two. The study finds: the introduction of the BOPS model can improve the attractiveness of physical stores to retailers and consumers without considering returns;In the case of returns, the introduction of BOPS makes consumers more willing to choose offline purchases and sales, but it may not always lead to an increase in total sales; When BOPS is implemented, returns allow retailers to be more willing to sell in brick-and-mortar stores, while also complicating consumer purchase channel choices.

A Method of Multi-attribute Decision Making with Intervals Based on Double-reference Points

HUANG Hao-ran, Liu Yang, FANG Kai

2022, 31(9):  63-68.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0286

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To better solve the MADM problem with interval numbers and without weight information, a MADM method based on double reference points (DRPs) is proposed. At first, it describes universality of decision making problems with DRPs, and analyzes characteristics of DRPs and its influence on decision making. Secondly, the utility value is calculated by loss/gain value and attitude value, and used to judge the feasibility of alternatives. Thirdly, the attribute weighting method based on loss/gain values is given. Then, the interval TOPSIS is used to aggregate utility values and rank alternatives. At last, an example is given to prove the scientific of the proposed decision making method.

Adaptability Evaluation and Optimization Method for General Industrial and Commercial Retail Electricity Price Packages

YOU Fei, LIU Shang-ke, JU Xin, WANG Zheng, WANG Bao-you

2022, 31(9):  69-74.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0287

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In the context of the reform of the power system, a reasonable assessment of the adaptability of retail electricity price packages is of great significance for controlling grid operation risks and advancing reforms on the electricity sales side. Aiming at the characteristics of China's electricity market and general industry and commerce, firstly we set up an evaluation index system for general industrial and commercial retail electricity price packages from the perspectives of competition, users, and market environment; Secondly, we combine the AHP and the improved gray whitening weight function to carry out electricity price packages adaptive evaluation; Finally, an optimization model based on the ant colony algorithm is established for this evaluation method, and the optimization scheme for increasing the adaptability level of the electricity price package is obtained at the minimum cost, and it is verified that the method has good robustness and has certain reference significance.

Optimal Subsidy Strategy for Green Products under the Influence of Demand Uncertainty

HAI jiang-tao, LI xu, LI zheng-yi

2022, 31(9):  75-83.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0288

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Considering the impact of demand uncertainty, the paper analyzes how the government should provide subsidies to consumers or suppliers in order to mitigate environmental externalities in green technology innovation by newsvendor model. The results show that from the perspective of minimizing government subsidy expenditure, government departments should choose to provide consumers with a fixed amount of subsidies when demand is uncertain. The optimal subsidy amount should take into account the demand uncertainty and the government's desired adoption target level. If governments expect enterprises to increase the output of green products, price discount is the best choice. We demonstrate that an increase in demand uncertainty leads to higher production quantities and lower prices, resulting in lower profits for the supplier. With this in mind, one could expect consumer surplus to increase with uncertainty, and thus it is more advantageous for consumers to buy green products with high demand uncertainty.

Introduction and Pricing Strategy of a Third-party Retail Channel for Self-supporting Brand Firms under E-supply Chain Competition

YU Jing, ZHOU Chi, LUO Zhi-yuan

2022, 31(9):  84-90.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0289

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Based on the channel modes of e-commerce platform, it is an important E-supply chain competition problem for self-supporting brand firms to decide whether to introduce a third-party retail channel or not. Under the environment of multi-channel competition, an E-supply chain system is constructed composed of two self-supporting brand firms and one e-commerce platform. The Stackelberg game models are established and solved considering three cases, i.e., two third-party retail channels are not introduced, a single channel is introduced and two channels are introduced. The results show that different cross-price elasticity coefficients and consumers' self-supporting retail channel preferences have different effects on the introduction strategies of third-party retail channel. Under the case that two channels are introduced, e-commerce platforms can make higher profits. Additionally, the platform commission, the consumers' self-supporting retail channel preference and the cross-price elasticity coefficient have important effects on the optimal prices of self-supporting and third-party products, the optimal profits of e-commerce platform and brand firms.

Research on Quality Effort Strategies ofVideo Service Supply Chain Considering Derived Demand and Fans Effect

XING Peng, ZHAO Xiang-ru

2022, 31(9):  91-98.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0290

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In the era of “Internet+”, video service as a new cultural industry model has attracted more and more attention. The paper investigates a video service supply chain composed of a video service platform and a video service provider who provides basic services and two-stagederived services to users. Considering the influence of video service supply chain members' four kinds of behavior factors on service demand, we establish the profit functions of service supply chain members under platform pricing mode and provider pricing mode respectively. By using game theory, we can get the optimal quality effort strategy and optimal profit of service supply chain members under the two modes. Finally, through numerical simulation to analyze the correlation between fans effect and share of proceeds ratio and optimal quality effort strategy and profit, and the relevant conclusions are drawn to give management enlightenment.

Decision Research on Closed-loop Supply Chain Based on the Effect of Quality Constraint

MENG Li-jun, HUANG Zu-qing, ZHANG Bao-you, YANG Yu-xiang, CHEN Hong-ya, HU Yu-qing

2022, 31(9):  99-106.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0291

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This paper considers a closed-loop supply chain(CLSC)with an Original Equipment Manufacturer(OEM)and an independent remanufacturer (IR). OEM is a traditional manufacturing producing new product, while IR operates a reverse channel producing remanufactured product from used product recycling from customer directly. In fact, the quality of new product brought by OEM can effectively restricts the collection quantity of used product. Based on the “quality-price” dual-competition between the new products and remanufactured ones, and the quality constrainment effect, considering the three different market dominant structures(OEM-leader, IR-leader, No-leader), game models are proposed to derive the optimal quality and pricing decisions for chain members respectively, and the effect of the quality constraint on the operation of CLSC is analyzed. The results show that: (1)under the three different market structures, remanufactured products should be differentiated from new ones from the perspective of price and quality, and the chain with a leader is conductive to the improvement of product quality, whether products are new ones or remanufactured ones; (2)the existence of the quality constraint effect has an impact on the price and quality strategies simultaneously; (3)the quality of remanufactured product is inferior to that of new ones. At the same time, the enhancement of quality constraint effect leads to the quality weakness of remanufactured products greater, leaving new products to the trend of higher quality and higher price, remanufactured ones to the trend of lower quality and higher price that is harmful to the market promotion of remanufactured ones; (4)the change of market structure and the quality constraint effect have no impact on the total demand, but only the market share of chain members. Customer demand of new product is usually higher than that of remanufactured one. However, when OEM is the market leader and the quality constraint effect is lower than a threshold level, the demand of remanufactured products is higher than that of new ones; (5)the supply chain dominated by OEM is most effective from the perspective of chain member's profit and the whole supply chain's profit. The quality constraint effect has no impact on the whole supply chain's profit, but only affect the profit share between the chain members.

Research on Aquatic Product Supply Chain Coordination Considering Transport Time and Consumer Preference

WU Da-qing, LIU Yan-li

2022, 31(9):  107-112.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0292

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This paper studies the coordination problem of two levels of fresh produce supply chain composed of supply chain member. We take into account such factors as consumers' preference for fresh aquatic products, time of transportation, and level of preservation efforts. A Stackelberg game model between retailer and supplier's supply chain members under integrated decision and dispersed decision is structured. The theoretical demonstration and numerical simulation indicate that the overall profit of the supply chain is greater than the common retaining freshness cost-recovery policy contract, and the retaining freshness cost-recovery policy&benefit-sharing contract can increase the retaining freshness efforts of cold chain store.

Impact of Money Back Guarantee on Competitive Supply Chain: from the Perspective of Customer Returns Behavior

JIN Liang

2022, 31(9):  113-119.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0293

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In order to study the impact of refund on competitive supply chain, this paper focuses on the supply chain composed of quality differentiated manufacturers and online retailer. The utility function of quality differentiated products is constructed from the perspective of customer return behavior and the two-stage game model with or without money back guarantee is established respectively.On this basis, the impact of money back guarantee on the product demand of the pricing strategy of both parties and the profit of each enterprise is analyzed. The results show that, the optimal wholesale prices and optimal retail prices of the high quality product are higher than those of the low quality product. The higher high quality product's price leads to the change of demand. Whether or not a money-back guarantee is offered, the difference in profit between competing manufacturers depends on the cost of producing high-quality products. Money-back guarantees encourage more consumers to buy lower-quality products, thus increasing the demand for lower-quality products and decreasing the demand for higher-quality products. Moreover, from the perspective of profit maximization, the impact of money-back guarantee on the profit of each manufacturer depends on the salvage value of returned products, while online retailer can make more profits only when the loss of returned products is low.

Recovery and Patent Authorization Strategy for Closed-loop Supply Chain Considering Low Carbon Preference and Carbon Emission Reduction

SUN Jia-yi, YANG Lu, YAO Feng-min

2022, 31(9):  120-127.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0294

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The issues of closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) recovery, carbon emission reduction and patent authorization decision considering consumers' low carbon preference are studied in this paper. The CLSC models of manufacturer recycling and remanufacturing, retailer recycling and remanufacturing with fixed technology authorization fees and retailer recycling and remanufacturing with unit technology authorization fee are constructed respectively. The influence of the proportion of low-carbon consumers, ordinary consumers' acceptance for remanufactured products and carbon trading price on recycling strategies, carbon emission reduction and pricing decisions are analyzed. The profits of enterprises and CLSC under the three models are compared. It shows that with the increase of the proportion of low-carbon consumers and the acceptance of remanufactured products by ordinary consumers, the recovery rate and the carbon emission reduction rate of manufacturer will always increase. At the same time, the increase of carbon trading price will also promote carbon emission reduction. For the manufacturer, when the retailer remanufactures and pays fixed technology authorization fees, the manufacturer's profit is optimal. From this point of view, as a leader, the manufacturer will always choose the mode of retailer recycling and remanufacturing with fixed patent fees.

Research on Selection of Process and Product Innovation Modes in Supply Chains under Asymmetric Demand Information

ZHANG Liang-liang, ZHANG Pan

2022, 31(9):  128-134.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0295

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In the supply chains with process innovation or product innovation, when the demand forecasting information is asymmetric, this paper studies the retailer's demand information sharing strategy and the manufacturer's optimal innovation mode. Using refined Bayesian theory and Stackelberg game models, this paper firstly derives the value of information sharing of each mode, and then investigates an incentive mechanism that induces the retailer to share demand information and equilibrium information sharing strategies. Secondly, this paper compares the profits under the two kinds of innovation model. The research shows that in both models, when innovation efficiency is high and low, retailers' voluntary sharing and non-sharing of demand information are respectively equilibrium strategies. When innovation efficiency is in the middle level, a bargaining mechanism can be designed to enable retailers to share demand information. In addition, when consumers are more sensitive to products' quality (price), manufacturers can benefit all members of the supply chain by choosing the product innovation (process innovation) model.

Application Research

Research on Forecasting and Optimizing Mathematical Model of Oilfield Development Indexes Based on Changes in Reserve Structure

JI Bing-yu, MENG Xin

2022, 31(9):  135-139.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0296

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During the development of large oilfields, the geological reserves structure has changed with the continuous investment of different types of new reserves, and the key indicators that characterize the overall development technology and economic effect of the oilfield, such as production, recoverable reserves, recovery ratio, and reserve-production ratio, development costs, operating costs, etc. have also changed, and the law of change can be described with a set of mathematical models. Based on the forecast of development indicators, the optimization of new production blocks is conducted using the multi-attribute decision-making methods. The application example shows that the method is practical and highly maneuverable, and can provide an important method for the prediction of technical and economic indicators, the optimization of used reserves, and the development and investment decision-making. Finally, we give suggestions of giving priority to the development of integrated, fault-block and special lithological reservoirs, developing low-permeability tight reservoirs low-cost development technology, and promoting water flooding and heavy oil reservoir management and technological innovation are given.

Quality Monitoring EWMA Model Based on Penalized Likelihood Ratio in High-dimensional Correlated Process

ZHANG Shuai, YANG Jian-feng, LIU Yu-min, JIN Lin-lin

2022, 31(9):  140-146.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0297

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In traditional variable selection control chart domain, the spatial correlation problem among high-dimensional process is rarely considered. For solving this problem, a high-dimensional spatially correlated process monitoring model based on Fused LASSO algorithm is proposed. First, the Fused LASSO method is applied to optimize the likelihood ratio test. Then, the control limit of proposed model is obtained from Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, the performance of proposed model is compared with VS-MEWMA control chart through both simulations and real example. The results show that the proposed monitoring model outperforms the alternative method in high-dimensional process when the adjacent variables are spatially correlated, since the potential abnormal variables can be captured accurately by proposed method.

DEA-BWMModels with Preference Information

YU Yu, ZHU Wei-wei, SHI Qin-fen

2022, 31(9):  147-152.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0298

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Traditional DEA model fails to take into account decision makers' attitude toward the preferences information about the weights of inputs and outputs. EmbeddingBest Worst Method (BWM) into the DEA model, and DEA-BWM model is proposed which is based on the pairwise comparison vectors with decision maker's preference information. First, maintaining the advantages of traditional DEA method, CCR-BWM model is proposed to measure the performance of DMUs. Then, in order to compare the DMUs on common weights, CSW-BWM model is constructed. Moreover, considering the concept of self-evaluation and peer-evaluation, NCE-BWM model is proposed. Second, the min-max method is employed to transferred the three multi-objective programming models into and a linear programming with single objective. Finally, we also apply our model for a real-life example to verify the validation of proposed models.

Can Digital Financial Inclusion Stimulate Rural Residents' Entrepreneurial ——An Empirical Study based on CHFS data

GENG Xu-ling, GAO Ge, LI Xiu-ting, DONG Ji-chang

2022, 31(9):  153-160.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0299

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This research find that the digital financial inclusion can stimulate the entrepreneurship of rural residents. The improvement of the depth of digital financial inclusion can promote entrepreneurship motivated by speculation; the breadth of digital financial inclusion can promote entrepreneurship motivated by speculation motivated by survival; and the depth of its use can further stimulate entrepreneurship motivated by speculation. Asforthe impact mechanism, we find that residents' financial knowledge, investment behavior and high-risk preference play a positive moderating role between digital financial inclusion and residents' entrepreneurial intention, and digital financial inclusion promotes residents' entrepreneurial intention by improving their household income, subjective happiness and the use of media. Additionally, heterogeneity test results show that the impact of digital financial inclusion varies across different regions and in different industrial structures. Thisstudy provides a theoretical basis for China's current development of digital inclusive finance to stimulate the endogenous motivation of rural residents' entrepreneurship, and provides policy suggestions on how digital inclusive finance can effectively serve farmers' entrepreneurship.

The Development Level of China's Digital Economy: Characteristics of Time and Space, Dynamic Evolution and Influencing Factors

SU Bing-jie, LU Fang-yuan, ZHU Feng, LI Yan-long

2022, 31(9):  161-168.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0300

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Based on the constructed digital economy development level evaluation index system and panel data of 30 provinces and cities across the country (except Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2010 to 2018, the temporal and spatial characteristics, dynamic evolution and regional differences of China's digital economy development level are explored. The study fInds that the level of digital economy development in the country and the three major regions has shown a steady upward trend, accompanied by obvious spatial correlation, spatial agglomeration and regional differences. Compared with the central and western regions, the eastern region is more different and has a greater state of speed change. The early digital foundation of the region, the first-order lag in economic development, and government investment in science and technology will all promote the development of the regional digital economy. The level of opening up will inhibit the development of the digital economy, and the impact of regional scale on the digital economy is nonlinear. Different linear influencing factors have different influences on the development level of the digital economy in different regions.

What Kind of Market Information Does the Turnover Carry? ——Analysis Based on Limits of Arbitrage

CUI Xin, WANG Chun-feng, FANG Zhen-ming, YAO Shou-yu

2022, 31(9):  169-175.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0301

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As one of the most important media of information transmission in stock market, turnover plays an important role in measuring the degree of stock trading activity. However, the existing literature has not yet reached a consensus on what market information is carried by turnover, that is, what is the essence of the negative premium of turnover. From the perspective of limits of arbitrage, this paper constructs a unique comprehensive index of arbitrage restriction, and uses portfolio analysis and Fama-Macbeth regression to compare the explanatory power of two mainstream hypotheses—the risk compensation hypothesis and the mispricing hypothesis for the anomaly of turnover. We find that the negative premium of turnover is more pronounced and sustained in stocks with higher limits of arbitrage, which indicates the negative premium of turnover may come from the mispricing caused by investors' heterogeneous beliefs. Besides, we adopt the introduction of margin trading system as a unique “exogenous policy shock”, using the DID method to increase the credibility of the above conclusion.

Research Of Executive Compensation Supervision Game and Independent Director Effectiveness

GAO Yuan, MA Lian-fu

2022, 31(9):  176-182.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0302

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This study focuses on the internal communication network of the board, and discusses the monitoring effectiveness of executive compensation, based on the information sharing mechanism from independent directors. It is found that independent directors share information with each other to enhance their ability to restrain the self-interested behaviors of executives and effectively reduce their compensation. At the same time, management power has a moderate effect on the monitoring process of independent directors with shared information. More specifically, as management power increases, the the restriction in executive pay by information sharing of independence director is weakened, which shows that the supervision effectiveness of information sharing mechanism is limited by management power. This study establishes a model of information sharing process, and the constraint of information sharing on managers' self-interest behavior is analyzed based on the game process of board supervision, and finally the data of a-share listed companies are used to verify the hypothesis. The study expands the understanding of the supervision mechanism of independent directors, and provides a new perspective for opening the “black box” of the board and improving the board performance, which promotes the corporate governance from static structure study to dynamic process study.

The Multi-period Empirical Research on Performance Attribution of Bond Portfolio

TANG Jia-sui, FANG Wen-li

2022, 31(9):  183-188.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0303

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Currently, the domestic researches on performance attribution mainly start from management level, and the source of excess return would be attributed to the ability of timing and selection. However, this method isn't suitable for bond portfolio. Based on the Campisi model, this paper analyzes the bond pricing formula, studies the excess return of the portfolio from the characteristics of the bond itself, and combines with the GRAP inter-temporal approach to form multi-period attribution model. Then we use this new model to analyze the performance attribution of long-term bond portfolio. Compared to a single-period attribution model, the inter-temporal attribution model can be used for any time during one period. The excess returns of the portfolio during the time are not the simple sum of the single-period attributions. This paper uses the CSI Aggregate Bond Index as a benchmark to conduct an empirical study of the portfolio of 32 bonds. The results show that the model is in line with market conditions and actual operating conditions. Therefore, the multi-period performance attribution research proposed in this paper is practical.

Operational Risk Measurement of Insurance Industry Based on Multiple Types of Dependence

LI Bin, CHANG Yan-peng, WANG Ying-hui, ZHU Xiao-qian, LI Jian-ping

2022, 31(9):  189-195.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0304

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In recent years, with the frequent occurrence of major operational risk events in insurance companies, operational risk has become one of the important risks that cannot be ignored in the insurance industry. However, most of the researches ignores the correlation among risk events, which significantly affects the accuracy of operational risk measurement results. In this paper, we consider the correlation in the operational risk measurement model, and embed the correlation structures into the framework of the loss distribution approach, and study the measurement of operational risk on the basis of considering the frequency dependence, severity dependence, and loss dependence. Moreover, in view of the fact that the lack of operational risk data in the insurance industry seriously hinders the empirical research, we propose a data collection standard for operational risk in the Chinese insurance industry and collect 922 operational risk data of the Chinese insurance industry from 1995 to 2019 collected from public media. The empirical results based on this database show that: there are indeed complex correlations among operational risk events in the insurance industry, and ignoring these correlations may seriously underestimate the measurement value of operational risk; Considering different types of correlation will also lead to significant differences in measurement results. When measuring the operational risk of the insurance industry, we also need to consider the types of correlation among risk events carefully. The results of this paper can provide an important basis for the rational allocation of operational risk capital in the Chinese insurance industry.

Research on Cut-off Point of Profit-driven Default Judgment Based on Mixed Model

CHI guo-tai, DENG Bing-ji

2022, 31(9):  196-201.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0305

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The cut-off point of default judgment is an important reference standard for whether financial institutions accept customer loan applications. An inappropriate cut-off point of default judgment may cause financial institutions to mistakenly accept a large number of loan applications from potential default customers, which in turn will cause huge losses and find a suitable one. The cut-off point of default judgment is of great significance to the stable operation of financial institutions. The problem of this research is how to find the cut-off point of the default judgment of profit maximization under the premise of ensuring the accuracy of calculating the default probability of customers. The innovation and characteristics of this article: First, the weighted average of the default probability of customers calculated by multiple different types of default prediction models ensures the overall accuracy of calculating the default probability of customers, and avoiding the inaccurate calculation of the default probability of customers using a single model. The second is to define the calculation formula of the income, loss and profit obtained by the financial institution from the loan, based on the construction principle of the ROC curve, traverse all the critical points to draw the relationship curve between the critical point and the profit, and find the judgment of the cut-off point of the default with the highest profit so as to avoid the cut-off point profit obtained by the existing methods of calculating the critical point, such as the Yordon index, generalized symmetric point estimation and empirical likelihood method. The study finds that the mixed model proposed in this paper has higher accuracy than the single model; in the Renren loan data set, the profit-driven default judgment critical point of the loan profit is much higher than that of other methods; and the virtual data, the comparative analysis of the set, shows that the default prediction model with high overall accuracy helps to mitigate the loss caused by the inappropriate selection of the default point of the default judgment in the loan process.

Critical Chain Project Buffer Differential Monitoring and Control Based on Fault Tolerance Mechanism

ZHANG Jun-guang, WANG Mei-hua

2022, 31(9):  202-209.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0306

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The performance of critical chain project buffer monitoring and control is affected by the characteristics of the activity itself and the activity executor. The project manager should monitor the activities differently according to different activity executors. However, the research has not fully considered the heterogeneity of the activity executors. Firstly, this paper allocates buffer according to the network complexity, risk perception and the comprehensive trust of the activity executor. Secondly, it introduces fault tolerance mechanism to set different trigger points for different activities, and divides the buffer monitoring and control into trust based and supervision based buffer monitoringand control. Finally, according to the buffer consumption of activity, different methods of dynamic rolling monitoringand control are applied to different activities. The Monte Carlo simulation results show that this method can effectively reduce the error warning, ensure the completion of the project and realize the comprehensive optimization of the project.

Management Science

Prediction of Employee Turnover in Power Enterprises in Qinghai Electric Power Company on IVRF Algorithm

ZHENG Jian, LIU Ren-jing

2022, 31(9):  210-216.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0307

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Under the background of the deepening of the reform of electric power system, the electric power companies in the remote areas of western China are faced with more serious personnel loss. Employee turnover prediction has attracted more and more attention in power companies. However, traditional prediction algorithms cannot effectively solve the imbalance problem of employee turnover data set in power companies. Based on this, this paper proposes a random forest algorithm based on interval variables, using the human resources data set of Qinghai Electric Power Company from 2009 to 2017 for empirical analysis, and comparing it with the prediction results of decision trees, support vector machines, and random forest algorithms. The results show that the algorithm is more suitable for solving the problem of imbalance data and has higher prediction accuracy. At the same time, the important characteristics of employee turnover are analyzed; and it can provide decision-making basis for the human resource management of related power companies.

Price Estimation and Determinants Research of Airbnb with Machine Learning: Based on Data from Beijing

BI Wen-jie, FU Chun-juan

2022, 31(9):  217-224.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0308

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Airbnb is one of the largest accommodation rental platforms. This paper comprehensively uses a variety of machine learning methods to predict Airbnb price in Beijing and examine the impacts of six groups of explanatory variables: characteristics of listings, location of listings, amenities and services, rentalrules, attributes of hosts,and reputation of listings. Findings find that: (a)Characteristics of listings have the greatest impact on the Airbnb price. (b)The performance of the nonlinear method is significantly better than the linear method. (c)Contrary to previous findings, instant booking and high price are related. (d)Among all variables, capacity of listings, room type, and the distance between listings and the city center are the most important variables. This paper provides new perspectives for the study of Airbnb pricing, and can help hosts to set price for their listings more accurately. The authors have made possible explanations from the theoretical and practical perspective.

The Supervision and Control of Rent-Seeking Behavior of Carbon Verification Business Rights Based on Multi-Party Participation

WANG Dan-dan, JIAN Li-rong, FU Shuai-shuai

2022, 31(9):  225-231.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0309

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For the rent-seeking problem of “carbon verification” business rights, we consider the supervision and influence of the government, emission control companies, and third-party verification companies. An evolutionary game model is established to explore the evolutionary equilibrium of the governance of “carbon verification” business rights rent-seeking behavior in different situations strategies. The results show that the rent-seeking behavior of carbon verification business rights is affected by the different decision-making behaviors of various entities. How to restrain and control the behavior of enterprises is the key to solving the problem of “carbon verification” business rights rent-seeking. The recheck and random inspection rate cannot effectively restrict the rent-seeking behavior of the emission control companies, while the high re-check random inspection rate can effectively restrict the rent-seeking behavior of the emission control companies. Due to the different rent-seeking costs, the sensitivity of the emission control enterprises, and the third-party verification enterprises to the government's punishment is different. Medium and high-intensity review rates and punishment intensity are helpful to reduce the possibility of power rent-seeking by emission control enterprises and third-party verification enterprises.

The Degree, Model and Revenue of Manufacturing Servitization

WANG Hao, CHEN Ju-hong, ZHANG Ya-qi, YAO shu-jun

2022, 31(9):  232-239.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0310

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The decline in performance and deservitization in the process of servitization has aroused widespread concern in the academic, and spawned the relevant research of service paradox. From the perspective of demand-side, the problem has been transformed into the influence of degree and model on the revenue under different demand-side characteristics. In this paper, a decision-making model of servitization-degree considering demand-side characteristics is constructed to illustrate the relationship between the degree and revenue under different servitization-models. Combined with the simulation results, the servitization-path of manufacturing enterprises is determined. The research shows that: (1)Servitization is a two-way dynamic reversible process, and not all enterprises are suitable to carry out servitization activities. The enterprises should choose the corresponding path according to the service state. (2)In addition to the independent model, the degree of service under the two modes of cooperative model and outsourcing model is more affected by the attributes of partners, so it isn't very easy for enterprises to determine the degree of service independently. (3)The change of demand-side characteristics will have a significant impact on revenue. Different models correspond to different demand-side characteristics. The research of this paper provides a new research perspective on service paradox, and also provides a reference to enterprises to promote the service strategy.