Table of Content

25 July 2022, Volume 31 Issue 7

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Research onEvolutionary Game of Local Government Support and Private Enterprises Joining the Militaryin Civil-military Integration

ZHANG Fang, CAI Jian-feng, CHEN Nan

2022, 31(7):  1-8.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0208

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Civilian military participation is an important component of military-civilian integration, and government support plays a key role in the smooth progress of civilian military participation. The paper establishes an evolutionary game model between local government and private enterprisesin civil-military integration. Based on the evolutionary game model, the evolutionary process ofparticipants’ decision and the evolutionarily stable strategy is analyzed, and the related influencingfactors are also considered. The results show that the private enterprises joining the military can be promotedby reducing the cost of joining the military. It is harmful for local government support to strengthenthe reward andtax preferenceson privateenterprisesandincrease the earning rate of thefunds. Both the private enterprises joining the military and local government support will be promoted by enhancing the reward for local government and reducing the service cost of local government in supporting privateenterprises to join the military. Finally, the numerical simulation analysis verifies the rationality of the conclusions. The research results can provide certain theoretical guidance for the current practice of civilian participation in the army.

Pickup and Delivery Vehicle Routing Problem with Order Release Dates and Flexible Time Windows

SUN Xin-rui, LI Kun-peng, LIU Teng-bo

2022, 31(7):  9-16.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0209

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This paper studies the pickup and delivery with order release dates and flexible time windows in the urban distribution, which consideres the factors such as orders’ pickup positions, orders’ delivery positions, order release dates, flexible time windows and vehicle capacity. A mixed integer linear model is provided to minimize the sum of distribution cost and timeout penalty firstly. Secondly, an improved branch-and-cut algorithm considering a set of valid inequalities and corresponding separation algorithms is designed to solve the model accurately. Finally, we analyze the effect of inequality on the performance of the algorithm, and verify the effectiveness of the algorithm by testing several sets of examples. Moreover, the results also show that appropr; abely reducing the numlet of vehicles and incteasing the loading capacity can effectioely reduce the lost.

Single Vehicle Scheduling Problems with Cluster on a Line/Cycle

BAO Xiao-guang, JIAO Chang-chun

2022, 31(7):  17-21.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0210

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The single vehicle scheduling problems with cluster based on line/cycle networks are studied in this paper. Given a line/cycle network, some customers are distributed on the network. The customers are partitioned into several subsets, each of which is called a cluster. Each customer has a release time and a service time. Given a vehicle, it needs to serve all the customers, and serves the customers in each cluster consecutively. The problem is to compute a schedule that minimizes the time the vehicle returns to its initial location after serving all customers as required. To solve this problem, a 7/4-approximation algorithm for line-shaped network and a 13/7-approximation algorithm for cycle-shaped network are presented, respectively.

Model and Algorithm of Unscheduled Ship Berthing Scheduling Considering Customer Satisfaction

WU Nuan, WANG Nuo, WU Di, WANG Ling

2022, 31(7):  22-27.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0211

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In order to solve the special demand of rescheduling the berth allocation in the port due to the unscheduled arrivals, a bi-objective optimization model is established with the objectives of maximizing customer satisfaction and minimizing extra operation cost and the improved plant growth simulation algorithm is used. In the solve process, the initial growth point is determined by the deterministic-random strategy, the neighborhood is constructed by the mixed method of fixed step size and variable step size, and hierarchical non-dominated sorting method is integrated. To find a scheduling scheme that takes into account the interests of both the shipping company and the port side, the bias degree to the shipping company and the port side is quantified based on the distribution feature of Pareto front, and a scheme with the minimal bias is selected. Finally, a real background of container terminal is taken as an example, and the feasibility of this model and algorithm is verified. By comparing with the NSGA-II algorithm, the improved algorithm is proved to be effective. The results of this paper can provide technical support for improving the efficiency of port management.

An Improved Reactive Scheduling Problem of Multi-mode RCPSP

PENG Wu-liang, LIN Jia-li

2022, 31(7):  28-34.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0212

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The existing project reactive scheduling problems only focus on the stability of the baseline schedule, ignoring the optimal realization of scheduling goals. A two-stage multi-mode resource-constrained projectreactive scheduling problem is proposed in this paper. In the first stage, the new optimal value of the scheduling objectiveis obtainedbyfully reschedulingthe projectin the new project execution environment. In the second stage, a new optimal scheduling schemeachieving the new optimal value of the scheduling objectiveis formulated to maximizethe scheduling stability. According to the characteristics of the problem, a solutionbased on the IBM ILOG Optimization Programming Language OPL and CPLEX V12.8.0 is developed. Finally, based on the benchmark instances, the proposed reactive scheduling method, the existing reactive scheduling method, and the full rescheduling method are fully compared and tested. Theresults show that the reactive scheduling method proposed in this paper has obvious advantages in shortening the project makespan and protecting the stability of the baseline schedule.

Cross-efficiency Aggregation Method Based on Prospect Theory and Entropy Weight Method

MEI Xin-nan, WANG Ying-ming

2022, 31(7):  35-41.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0213

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The traditional cross-efficiency aggregation process usually adopts the arithmetic mean method, which not only underestimates the importance of self-evaluation of decision-making units but also does not take into consideration the decision maker’s risk preferences. Given the above questions, this paper proposes a cross-efficiency aggregation method based on prospect theory and entropy weight method. Firstly, solve the cross efficiency matrix, and the entropy weight method is applied to solve the index weight of each evaluation unit in the peer evaluation process. Then, the prospect theory is introduced to reflect the risk preferences of decision-makers in the cross efficiency aggregation process, and the TOPSIS method is applied to identify positive and negative reference points, and then construct the overall utility function to obtain the prospect cross efficiency matrix. Subsequently, a model for maximizing the prospect value is constructed to solve the aggregation weight of cross efficiencies. This method not only considers the relative importance weights for cross-efficiency aggregation but also incorporates the risk preferences of decision-makers into the efficiency evaluation to realize the overall ranking of decision-making units. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the method proposed.

Optimization of Fresh Produce Retail Inventory Decision with Backroom Effect

LI Lin, GENG Tong, ZHANG Zhen-min

2022, 31(7):  42-49.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0214

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Basedon the definition of Backroom Effect in the existing research, this paper considers the common phenomenon in fresh produce retailing, that is, the backroom is superior to the shelf in corrosion control and preservation ability, and redefines the Backroom Effectof storing excess inventory and providing freshness preservation for fresh products. Based on this, a decision-making model of fresh retail inventory based on order quantity, backroom-shelf replenishment period and reorder point is constructed, and the influence of the difference of deterioration rate between shelf and backroom on retailer’s inventory decision-making and corresponding profit under Backroom Effect is analyzed with numerical examples. The main results of this paper include: fresh retailers should fully consider Backroom Effect in the inventory decision-making, and improve the optimal order quantity of fresh products with the help of Backroom Effect, so as to increase the average profit per unit time;with the improvement of Backroom Effect, the retailer’s optimal order quantity and corresponding average profit also increase; different fresh products have different sensitivity to the Backroom Effect, and retailers should focus on fresh products that are more perishable and have higher marginal profit, which will help to make full use of Backroom Effect and obtain higher profits.

Interval-valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Three-Way Group Decisions Considering The Unknown Weight Information

LIU Jiu-bing, PENG Li-sha, LI Hua-xiong, HUANG Bing, ZHOU Xian-zhong

2022, 31(7):  50-57.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0215

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This paper proposes an approach to interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy three-way group decisions (IVIF3WGDs) under unknown weights of experts from an optimization perspective. We firstut ilize an interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy linear weight average (IVIFLWA) operator to aggregate interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy loss evaluations provided by multiple experts, which leads to collective loss evaluation results on an expert group. According to this principle, a larger similarity of expert individual to group better reflects a collective opinion of the group, and we should assign a higher weight of the individual expert. Corresponding mathematical models for determining the weights are further established in two cases of completely and partly unknown weight information. We further construct a pair of optimization models to determine the thresholds in IVIF3WGDs, and develop an IVIF3WGD approach based on unknown weights of experts. Finally, an illustrative example and its comparisons show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

An Analysis of the Equilibrium of Human and Wildlife Conflicts in the Qinling Region of China: A Dynamic Gaming Process

CHEN Rong-yuan, HU Ming-xing, CHEN Wen-hui

2022, 31(7):  58-63.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0216

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Wildlife conflict compensation is an effective means to protect wildlife resources and balance the interests of all parties. The paper obtains the specific information about the loss of crops caused by wild animals in 2019, based on a semi-structured interview with 225 local families in the Qinling region of Shaanxi Province in China. The involved wildlife uses the extended game theory to explain the conflict between farmers and the government that are destroying and expanding wildlife. The theoretical research finds that the optimal stable equilibrium strategy (protection, compensation) cannot be achieved only through the evolution of farmers and local governments, and the central government’s incentive and constraint mechanism must be introduced to determine the parameter conditions for achieving the optimal stable equilibrium strategy. The empirical research shows that farmers in Shanxi Province should receive compensation of at least 720 Yuan per hectare,so that farmers are willing to adopt protection strategies. At the same time, if the compensation standard is less than 2434.6/(1-β), the local government is willing to adopt a compensation strategy. In order to achieve the balance of the stakeholders in wildlife conflicts, compensation standards should be formulated reasonably,and the cost of breach of compensation for compensation and the existing compensation supervision system should be established.

Pricing and Recycling Mode Selection of Closed-loop Supply Chain Considering the Maintenance Center Participation into Recycling Process

BIAN Wen-liang, PAN Yue, WANG Wen-bin, QUAN Shi-yuan, LIU Xiao-yan

2022, 31(7):  64-70.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0217

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With the proposition of the extended producer responsibility, manufacturing companies are not only responsible for the production of products, but also for the recycling and disposal of waste products. At present, most manufacturing companies recycle waste products through recyclers, and ignore the recycling channel of the maintenance center. The maintenance center can not only recover the waste products for compensation, but also obtain replaced parts during the repair process for free, which can reduce the recycling cost. Taking this situation into account, we first propose two recycling modes: a single recycling channel mode of a recycler, a dual recycling channel mode of a third-party maintenance center and a recycler. The Stackelberg game model is used to obtain the optimal pricing of enterprises in the two modes. Second, we analyze the optimal solution and parameters of the model. Finally, we compare and analyze these two modes. Our research shows some interesting results. Under both modes, the increase in the quantity of parts obtained for free by the official maintenance center will have a positive impact on the manufacturer’s profit, but it will not affect the manufacturer’s repurchase price. Under a dual recycling channel mode, the repurchase price of the manufacturer decreases with the quantity of parts obtained for free by the third-party maintenance center, and the profit of the manufacturer increases with the quantity of parts obtained for free by the third-party maintenance center. From the perspective of maximizing the total quantity of paid recycled products, when the quantity of parts obtained for free by the third-party maintenance center is low and the degree of competition between the two channels is high, the dual recycling channel mode should be selected; otherwise, the single recycling channel mode should be selected. From the perspective of maximizing the profit of the manufacturer, the mode selection is related to the relative size of the quantity of free parts obtained by the official maintenance center under two modes.

Supply Chain Coordination with Option Contracts Based on Expectation-based Loss-aversion

HU Zhong-quan, FENG Ping-ping, WEN Hao-yu,TIAN Jun, FENG Geng-zhong

2022, 31(7):  71-78.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0218

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Based on a two-level supply chain composed of a loss averse retailer and a loss neutral supplier, the optimal purchase strategy of the retailer under an option contract is studied by using the expectation-based loss-aversiontheory, which proves that the theory can effectively overcome the disadvantages caused by the exogenous and fixed assumption of the reference point in the traditional research based on the prospect theory. On this basis, the conditions for the supplierand the retailer to achieve a win-win coordination under the option contract are further given. The effects of the retailer’s loss aversion, the price of the option contract and other parameterson the win-win coordination mechanism are analyzed. The results show that the retailer’s loss aversion does not change the role of the royalty in the distribution of the overall supply chain profits, but it can enhance the retailer’s ability of sharing profits, and change the sensitivity of the profits and utility of both sides to the royalty, retail price and production cost. Moreover, the higher loss aversion preference can hinder the realization of cooperation goals between the supplier and the retailer.

Recycling and Coordination Strategy of Closed-loop Supply Chain Considering Manufacturing Cost Disruptions

CAO Xiao-gang1,3, HUANG Mei, WEN Hui

2022, 31(7):  79-85.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0219

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In this paper, the recovery decision and coordination mechanism of centralized and decentralized closed-loop supply chain is studied for the two-cycle closed-loop supply chain under the condition that the manufacturing cost of new products is disrupted by emergencies, and the optimal recovery price before and after disturbance, the quantity of recovery and the maximum profit saving of the manufacturer and the optimal recovery profit of the retailer are obtained. The results show that both the centralized decision-maker and decentralized decision-maker maintain the original recovery plan and adjust the recovery price appropriately when facing less disruptions; the centralized decision-maker and manufacturer prefer to adjust their recycling decisions whenfacing considerably disruptions, while the retailer hopes to maintain the original recovery plan when facing considerably profitable disruptions, and tends to adjust the recycling decisions when facing considerably harmful disruptions. The two-part tariff contract can coordinate the closed-loop supply chain with/without disruptions, and the fixed costs obtained by the manufacturer increase with the absolute value of disruptions when facing less disruptions; the fixed costs decrease with the value of positive disruptions and increase with the absolute value of negative disruptions when facing considerably disruptions.

The Method for the Inverse Uncapacitated Facility Location Problem Under One Norm

LI Zi-kang, LIU Lin-dong, YU Cheng-cheng

2022, 31(7):  86-92.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0220

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The inverse problem of a general optimization problem is to give a feasible solution by minimizing the change of parameters in the objective function under a fixed norm so that the feasible solution becomes optimal for the original optimization problem after the parameter adjustment. For the uncapacitated facility location problemwhich is NP-hard, we prove that its inverse problem is also NP-hard. In this paper, the classical row generation algorithm is used to calculate the inverse problem of the uncapacitated facility location problem,and then two heuristic methods are developed to get the upper and lower bounds of the inverse problem. These two methods give the upper bound based on the linear relaxation of the subproblem and the lower bound by the local search technique, respectively. The numerical results show that the gap between the upper bound obtained by the linear relaxation method and the optimal value is small, while the efficiency is not improved significantly. However, the gap between the lower bound obtained by the heuristic method and the optimal value is very small, which greatly improves the efficiency of solving the inverse problem.

Competitive Facility Location Problem Considering Customer Convenience Radius and Quality Threshold

YU Wu-yang, JIAN Yue

2022, 31(7):  93-99.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0221

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In competitive facility location problems, customer’s behavior rules play a key role in determining the market share captured by different facilities. They describe how demand is allocated between different facilities. In order to be close to the customer’s patronizing behavior, this paper proposes a customer behavior rule considering the distance limitation with a quality threshold to reflect this kind of customer patronage behavior. With the proposed customer behavior rule, we study the competitive facility location problem for a new entering firm in a market. To solve the problem, we propose a ranking-based genetic algorithm (RGA). The proposed algorithm is compared with the classical genetic algorithm(GA)and the ranking-based discrete optimization algorithm (RDOA). The results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm and the importance of the quality threshold in the model.

Railway Emergency Facility Location Optimization Based on Non-probabilistic Reliability Theory

TANG Zhao-ping, SUN Jian-ping

2022, 31(7):  100-108.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0222

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In order to effectively solve the allocation reliability problem for railway emergency resource reserve under small sample and poor information, innovatively combine the location-routing problem with interval non-probabilistic reliability method, considering the ability and stability of the emergency facilities to respond to the needs of the emergency points within an acceptable time frame after the disaster, by using interval value for road impedance, based on the non-probabilistic reliability theory and interval algorithm, the method of path non-probabilistic reliability measure and selection is put forward. The uncapacitated facility location model based on reliable shortest path of interval impedance is built, and the improved Monte Carlo algorithm under the constraint conditions limit is presented. Also, the optimal scheme of railway resource reserve location is determined. The example shows that the optimization scheme in this paper can better guarantee the time reliability of rescue, and the improved algorithm has smaller time complexity. It effectively shortens the operation time and improves the solution quality. The method and model system in this paper are of important guiding significance for realizing the reliability of railway emergency facilities location, providing decision support for decision makers and improving the emergency response capacity of railway.

Optimization of Background Value and Time Response Function of Grey GM(1,1,k,k²) Model

KONG Xin-hai, CHEN Jia-jia, ZHAO Yong

2022, 31(7):  109-113.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0223

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A new grey GM(1,1,k,k²) model with time power term is proposed in this paper. The basic form of grey differential equation and its corresponding whitening differential equation are given. Based on the least square method, the parameters of the model are estimated and the time response function of the model is deduced. In order to solve the jump relation between the grey differential equation and the whitening differential equation, the background value of the grey differential equation is optimized, and the calculation method of the optimized background value is deduced. In order to overcome the influence of initial value, the time response function is further optimized according to the minimum sum of squares of errors. Finally, the optimized GM(1,1,k,k²) model is applied to predict the settlement of soft soil foundation, and good simulation results are obtained, which shows that the model is feasible.

The Forecasting of the Reliability Based on the Degradation Shock Model of ARMAS(p,q)

ZHANG Quan, MO Zhen-xiang, LI Yan-jun, HAN Yang

2022, 31(7):  114-118.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0224

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In practical engineering applications, many factors of system themselves and of random environments cause systems to suffer from degradation and shocks. The reliability of the system is an important index in the degration model. It is necessary for the prediction of the system to reach early warning system. In this paper, a forecasting model of the degradation shock is presented. Based on the available history of the strength series up to time t, we would forecast the valve of in the minimum mean square error forecasting. The confidence interval for the predicated valve is given in normality assumption. This model will have wide application in many fields and provide theoretical support for the further expansion of the research framework of shock model.

A Three-parameter Discrete Grey Forecasting Model Based on Unified Grey Generation Operator and Its Application

LI Hui, ZENG Bo, GOU Xiao-yi, BAI Yun

2022, 31(7):  119-123.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0225

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The accumulating order of the existing three-parameter discrete grey forecasting model are limited to positive real numbers, which leads to the limitation of modeling ability and action space of the model. In this study, a unified grey generation operator in real number field is introduced. Moreover, a novel three-parameter discrete grey forecasting model based on this unified grey generation operator is constructed, and the expansion and optimization of its order from non-zero positive real number to all real numbers are realized. Therefore, this novel model has the dual function of mining the integral characteristic and difference information of time series data. Finally, the new model is applied to the modeling of maintenance cost of an armored equipment, and the results show that its accuracy is better than other similar grey models. The research results are of great value for improving the basic theory of grey operators and increasing the modeling ability of grey forecasting models.

Application Research

Optimal Investment and Timing of Annuitization Post Retirement with Inflation Risk

WU Hui-ling, WANG Jing, WANG Xiu-guo, LI Chan-juan

2022, 31(7):  124-130.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0226

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In the context of a defined contribution pension plan in the de-cumulation phase, this paper studies the optimal strategies of investment and timing of annuitization with inflation risk. The inflation process is assumed to be stochastic and then the real wealth process is set up. The timing of annuitization is first relatively fixed and the investment targets at each period are pre-determined by adopting the target-based model. By using Bellman’s principle of optimality, the optimal investment strategies from the retirement time to the relatively fixed annuitization time are obtained. Thus, the evaluation criteria of the optimal timing of annuity purchase is established which maximizes the accumulated expectations of the consumption before and after the annuitization time. Under the assumption of a stochastic inflation process, the traditional natural targets are proved not to exist. However, when the stochastic inflation process is reduced to be deterministic, the natural targets are derived. Furthermore, in these two cases, the effects of the inflation on the optimal investment strategies are analyzed. Finally, the effects of the inflation, risk preference and discount rate on the timing of annuity purchase are studied by numerical simulation.

Research on Poverty Alleviation Financing Strategy of Agricultural Supply Chain under Random Output

CAO Yu, DAI Ze-yu, WU Kan

2022, 31(7):  131-138.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0227

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Financial policies play an important role in the cause of poverty alleviation. This paper focuses on the contract farming supply chain composed of a capital-limited cooperative and an enterprise, and constructs four financing modes: internal financing of supply chain, bank financing, financial discount and risk compensation. This paper makes an in-depth analysis of the necessity of poverty alleviation policies, types of receivers and the applicable scenes of different poverty alleviation policies. It is found that if the uncertainty of output and capital cost of enterprise are low, the cooperative will adopt the internal financing mode, where the profits of the cooperative and enterprise, and the social welfare are much higher than the bank financing mode; otherwise, the cooperative will choose to borrow money from banks. For agricultural products featuring “high cost and low output”, government poverty alleviation can increase the profits of the cooperative and enterprise, and social welfare at the same time. As for the latter two modes, taking the poverty aid practice in Sanya and Quanzhou as an example, we find that if the output uncertainty is low, the government expenditure will be higher under the financial discount mode, while the profits of the cooperatives and enterprises, and social welfare will be also higher. The same is true under the risk compensation mode if the output uncertainty is high.

Supply Chain Financing Strategy with the Consideration of Tax

LU Xiang-yuan, WU Zhi-qiao, YIN Yong

2022, 31(7):  139-145.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0228

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With respect to a two-echelon supply chain comprised of a capital-constrained retail division and a manufacturing division with different tax rate, this paper analyzes the impact of taxation factor on the optimal decision-making, financing equilibrium and supply chain coordination of the supply chain under bank credit financing and trader credit financing. By a Stackelberg game model with the consideration of tax savings, the study finds that: when the retail division has tax advantages, the optimal financing strategy is bank credit financing; when the manufacturing division has tax advantages higher than a threshold, the optimal financing strategy is trade credit financing, and vice versa.In addition, the degree of supply chain coordination increases with the tax advantage of manufacturing division. Further, this paper carries out some numerical examples to illustrate the results. The relevant conclusions are fundamental to the financing strategies choice for capital-constrained divisions in supply chain under the background of the profound adjustment of tax policies.

Research on Manufacturer’s Cooperation Strategy in the Closed-loop Supply Chain under Capacity Constraints

XIAO Min, ZHANG Yao

2022, 31(7):  146-151.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0229

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A closed-loop supply chain model consisting of manufacturers, recyclers, and retailers is constructed to study the cooperation strategy of manufacturers under capacity constraints using the Stackelberg game theory, and the study finds the following conclusions: Manufacturers always have the economic motivation to cooperate with recyclers or retailers and the tendency will change with the capacity of manufactures. When the capacity is small, manufactures are more inclined to cooperate with retailers, while cooperating with recyclers will be a better strategy when it is large. Besides, the impact of different cooperation strategies on the recovery rate, overall supply chain profits, environmental impacts, and consumer surplus will also change with the capacity of the manufacturers compared to the non-cooperation model, and the impact of cooperation strategy on environmental impacts has correlations with the level of remanufacturing as well.

Study of Dynamic Network Efficiency of China Ports Considering CO₂ Emission

XUE Kai-li1,2, JIA Peng, KUANG Hai-bo

2022, 31(7):  152-160.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0230

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The existing studies regard the port as a simple system and only consider the operational efficiency or environmental efficiency of the port. However, the port is a dynamic complex network system composed of multiple periods and processes. Therefore, this paper uses the dynamic network SBM model to analyze the dynamic network efficiency of 10 major ports in China from 2013 to 2016. This paper divides the port into production-operation stage and profit-conversion stage by comprehensively considering economic, operational, environmental and other factors. The dynamic network SBM model considers both internal structure and undesired carry-over activities of the port. It not only reflects the dynamic changes of ports efficiency in the time series, but also reveals the weak links in the port. It improves the existing port efficiency evaluation to ignore the carry-over activities and the internal structure. Finally, the empirical results show that the efficiency of the production-operation stage is generally higher than the profit-conversion stage, the overall-efficiency of the port is closely related to the efficiency of the profit-conversion stage, and there is a large space for CO₂ emission reduction.

Comparison of Black-start Decision Making Methods in the Power System Restoration

LENG Ya-jun, WU Zong-yu, SHI Hao, LIU Peng-fei

2022, 31(7):  161-166.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0231

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For restoring the power system fast, reasonable selection of black-start schemes is very important. For recent years, scholars have proposed lots of black-start decision making methods. However, they are not able to compare their methods with the existing methods, and to reveal that their methods perform better. In this article, based on Mean Absolute Error, we propose a comparison strategy between black-start decision making methods, and make the quantitative analysis between different methods possible. Experiments are carried out on the data of black-start path of Guangdong power grid. We compare some commonly used weight determination methods and ranking methods. The results show that the black-start decision making method based on standard deviation weight and TOPSIS is superior to the other methods. The main contributions of this article are as follows: (1)A novel comparison strategy is proposed, all black-start decision making methods can be compared according to this strategy. (2)An optimal black-start decision making method is determined, which provides a evaluation standard for other scholars of black-start decision making.

What is Efficiency and Potential of China’s Power Sustainable Transition? Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Data

LIU Ping-kuo, LIU Qi-qi, LENG Ya-bin

2022, 31(7):  167-172.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0232

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Focusing on the sustainable transition of electric power and considering the energy security (desirable output) and the environmental pollution (undesirable output), we collect and organize the transitional data of both provincial structural factor indicators (input-output indicators) and inter-temporal activity variable indicators (policy indicators) from 2009 to 2018 by using the dynamic DEA model of bad output and the entropy method with TOPSIS model. This analysis is aimed at calculating, ranking and optimizing the efficiency, the potential as well as the efficiency-potential space of China’s electric power sustainable transition. The results show that: (1)China’s electric power transition process is still in the stage of relatively slow quantitative change, while the qualitative change inflection point is still unpredictable; (2)With respect to the transition efficiency of China’s electric power sustainable transition, there are still obvious unbalanced-insufficient phenomena among different provinces; (3)As far as the transition potential is concerned, the current transition inducement is not only the guarantee for the transition potential, but also the limit for it.

Fuzzy Pricing of European option Based on Mixed Fractional Brownian Motion

LIN Xian-wei, QIN Xue-zhi, SHANG Qin

2022, 31(7):  173-178.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0233

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In this paper, the mixed fractional Brownian motion is used to describe the dynamic change of the underlying stock price, so as to capture the long-term memory property of the financial market. On the basis of mixed fractional Black-Scholes model, assuming that the underlying stock price, risk-free interest rate and volatility are all fuzzy numbers, a fuzzy pricing model of European options based on mixed fractional Brownian motion is established. Secondly, the influence of Hurst index H, a measure of long-term memory in financial market, on European option pricing is analyzed. Finally, the numerical experimental results show that the fuzzy pricing model of European options based on long memory is more practical.

Research on Pricing Strategies of Omni-channel Service Providers under the Background of Online Self-service Technology

ZHENG Xia-bing, XU Hang, LI Xue, YANG Feng

2022, 31(7):  179-185.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0234

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In this paper, we study the omni-channel pricing strategies for the service providers using online self-service technology. We summarize three types of channels for providing services (offline queuing, online queuing, and online booking). Using the queuing theory, we set a theoretical model of the service system based on consumers’ utilities. We also examine the way in which service providers respond to different consumers and markets through the combination of numerical analysis. The results show each optimal pricing model for the three service channels and the pricing strategies in different market conditions. For example, discriminatory pricing strategies are recommended during peak periods of service. The results also indicate that online queuing and online booking should not be provided at the same time. In addition, we propose the optimal reserve capacity ratio of online booking, which is important for service providers. We also find that the curves of the service providers’ revenues will pass through a same point no matter the ratio of offline consumers. This paper is instructive for omni-channel theoretical modeling of service providers.

Research on Supply Chain Production, Ordering and Pricing of One-way Alternative ProductsBased on Capacity Constraints

LUO Zhi-hong, HONG Yu-ting

2022, 31(7):  186-192.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0235

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We consider a two-stage supply chain including a retailer and a manufacturer with capacity constraints, in which the information between supplier and retailer is not completely symmetrical. A three-stage game model is established to study the supply chain decision-making problems for production, ordering, and responsive pricing of two products with one-way substitution. The optimal decisions on production, ordering and responsive pricing under different conditions are obtained by theoretical analysis. The results of numerical calculations verify the optimality of the supply chain production, ordering and pricing under different conditions. Sensitivity analysis shows that higher production capacity, means and variances of potential market demands, and price sensitivity of the substitute within some ranges are beneficial for improving the profits of the supply chain system and its members, and higher price sensitivity of the substituted product may lead to lower profits of the manufacturer and the total supply chain.

Research on the Free Value-added Strategy of the Mobile Learning Software to Clock in and Cash out

GUO Qiang, YE Yi, LI Zeng-lu

2022, 31(7):  193-199.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0236

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Considering network externalities, this paper studies the free value-added strategy of punch-in cashback of mobile learning software. The mathematical models of enterprises under monopoly market and competitive market are constructed respectively, and the optimal product price, demand and profit of enterprises under different market structures are obtained, and the strategic choice of enterprises is analyzed through the equilibrium results. The research shows that: In monopoly market, enterprises should choose punch-in cash-back strategy, and at this time, the product price is higher and the demand of payment market is lower. In the competitive market, for inefficient enterprises, no matter what strategy the efficient enterprises adopt, they should not choose the punch card cashback strategy. For high-efficiency enterprises, only when the products of the two enterprises differ greatly should they choose the punch-in cash-back strategy.

Equilibrium Strategies of Value-added ServiceInvestment with Two Competitive Platforms

FAN Xiao-jun, WANG Shan-shan

2022, 31(7):  200-206.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0237

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This paperstudies two competing service platforms and considers whether the platform provides value-added services with the heterogeneity of consumers. Basedon whether the two competing platforms provide value-added services, we accordingly develop the profit models under three scenarios: neither platform provides value-added services (SS), only one service platform provides value-added services (PS), and both platforms provide the value-added service (PP). We derive the optimal price, service level, and discuss the value-added service investment equilibrium strategy of the two competitive platforms. We find: (1)If the number of platform service providers is low, both platforms will provide value-added services; with the increase in the number of service providers, only one platform provides value-added services (PS / SP) is the equilibrium outcome. (2)The increase in the number of platform service providers will weaken the advantage brought by value-added services. In addition, when the value of basic services is lower than a certain threshold, the platform with more service providers will not provide value-added services; when thevalue of basic service is higher, the platform will provide value-added services.

Simulation Study on Subjective Probability Cumulative Deviation of Grouped Population under Extreme Loss Conditions

ZHANG Yu, LIU Wei, QIAO Li, CEN Kang

2022, 31(7):  207-212.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0238

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In order to study the formation and evolution of the subjective probability cumulative deviation of grouped population under the extreme loss of individual death, the model of subjective probability cellular automata under different grouping modes is constructed and the Netlogo simulation platform is used for experiments.Then, On the basis of the graph analysis of the simulation results, the regression analysis and case verification analysis of the experimental data are further carried out. The research results show that the evolution of subjective probability of a group generally goes through the process from drastic change to stabilization; Group operation can improve safety redundancy, but this is not good for individual accident experience accumulation; The individual death will lead to the subjective probability underestimation and differentiation of groups, but grouping measures can reduce this effect; The reduction of objective accident probability will increase the difference of subjective probability within the group but grouping measures can reduce this effect; there is a complementary effect between accident rate and mortality and grouping measures have a two-way regulating effect on them; The increase of population size is helpful to reduce subjective probability deviation and difference.

The Optimal Selling Format and Money-back Guarantee Strategy Basedon Online Platform

WEI Jie, SHU Bo-can, LU Jing-hui

2022, 31(7):  213-219.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0239

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In a supply chain with a manufacturer and an e-tailer, we use game theory to develop six models under different selling formats and money-back guarantee strategies by considering the consumer’s return behavior. Through comparing equilibrium solutions and conducting numericalexamples, we obtaintheoptimal selling format of the manufacturerandmoney-back guarantee strategies of both the manufacturer and the e-tailer. The results show that choosing both the reselling and agency selling formats is the most beneficial to the manufacturer, the e-tailer and consumers. Additionally, when the manufacturer chooses both the reselling and agency selling formats, the commission rate has no effect on the manufacturer’s and the e-tailer’smoney-back guarantee strategiesif customer satisfaction is relatively high under both reselling and agency selling formats. The manufacturer always tends to provide a money-back guarantee, while the e-tailer always prefers not to provide a money-back guarantee.

Management Science

Business Model Selection of Online Video Platform Considering the Marketing Hype Effect

LI Zhi, TAN De-qin

2022, 31(7):  220-226.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0240

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With the rapid development of online video industry, more and more video programs rely on hype to attract attention and generate substantial commercial profits. Under this background, considering time and hype factors and the uncertainty of users’ demands, the continuous-time revenue model is established. By using Hamilton approach, the nonlinear optimization problem is solved. The changing rules of video users’ willingness to pay, and dynamic evolution trends of online video business models are obtained. Furthermore, the optimal pricing strategy and marketing hype strategy under the influence of marketing hype are determined. The research results show that the number of users who choose the fee model increases with the increase of hype time, while the changing trend of the number of users who choose the free model with hype time is reverse. With the increase of marketing hype effect, mix free-fee mode will gradually evolve into a single fee model, and the profit of video platform presents an inverted U-shaped changing trend. The above research conclusions reveal the influence of marketing hype on video pricing, users’ demands and viewing behavior, so as to provide decision basis for video platform to better understand users’ needs and formulate business strategies.

Research on Governance Mechanism of “Low Level” Vulgar Content on Live Broadcasting Platform Based on Non-participating Interactive Public

LUO Jian-bin, XIE Wei-hong

2022, 31(7):  227-233.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0241

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The dissemination of vulgar content on live broadcast platforms has been criticized, among which “low-level dissemination of vulgar content has been repeatedly prohibited.In order to explore the “ow level” vulgar content dissemination governance mechanism on the live broadcast platform, the non-participating and interactive public is introduced as a third-party supervision group, and an evolutionary game model among the government,the non-participating and interactive public, and the live broadcast platform is constructed. The studies have shown that the unilateral punishment by the government will not affect the final decision-making of the live broadcast platform. However, the supervision of the non-participating public has an important impact on the game decision-making of the government supervision department and the live broadcast platform. When the non-participating public participates, the degree of punishment and the penalties of the government supervision department will be at a certain level, and the combination of these two factors will make the game system evolve to a stable state of economically optimal and benign governance strategies.

Ripple Effect or Spatial Interaction: A Study on the Relationship between Housing Price and Land Price Based on the Spatial Panel Simultaneous Equation Model

ZENG Yan-ni, WANG Sen, HAH Ming-hui, ZHANG Hao

2022, 31(7):  234-239.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0242

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In this paper, a spatial panel simultaneous equation model including regional housing price and land price is constructed, and the data of housing price, land price and other macro variables of 286 cities in China from 2009 to 2016 are used to construct the weight matrix by using the longitude and latitude information and economic information of sample cities. In this paper, GS3SLS method is applied to estimate the simultaneous equation model of spatial panel to study the spatial autocorrelation and spatial spillover effects of housing price and land price. The empirical results show that the spatial interaction between the housing price and the land price is obvious, and the housing price is affected by not only the local land price, but also the housing price of surrounding cities. The urban land price is also affected by the demand caused by the local housing price, and by the land price in the surrounding cities.In terms of different regions, the effect intensity of land price on housing price decreases successively in the east, middle and west regions, while the effect intensity of housing price on land price presents an opposite trend. In terms of price spillover effect, the western region has the most obvious price spillover effect in terms of both housing price and land price, indicating that compared with the eastern and central regions, cities in the western region are more affected by the housing price and land price of surrounding cities.