Table of Content

25 October 2021, Volume 30 Issue 10

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Study of Pilots' Allocation for the Air Company

LIU Lei

2021, 30(10):  1-5.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0305

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With the increase of new airplanes and new international airlines, the airline companies' tasks increase so dramatically that the pilots' estimation and allocation are needed. In this paper, a mathematical model for the pilots' allocation is developed based on the real air fleet to forecast the pilots' demand and to arrange the flight tasks in the air company. This approach serves as an alternative to the human resource management in the air company for the long-term plan. The innovative contributions in this paper include: a)The pilots' allocation with the international long-distance flights and the domain short-distance flights are considered in this paper. b)The minimum number of pilots to finish the flights in an air company is estimated to support the air company's long term plan. Additionally, a heuristic algorithm is developed to get an approximate resolution to the model with less time. Computational result is approximate to the theoretical results, which prove its effectiveness.

Salary Game Model between High-Tech Enterprises and Knowledge Workers

LIU Guo-shan, DIAO Hai-can

2021, 30(10):  6-10.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0306

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In recent years, overwork, sudden deaths, and suicides of knowledge workers in some high-tech companies have emerged continuously. Scholars have explored this phenomenon from different angles such as work pressure. This paper introduces a dynamic game model with incomplete information to establish a multi-stage dynamic salary game model for high-tech enterprises and knowledge workers in terms of wage level and work pressure intensity. Based on theoretical deduction, the virtual value of the game benefits of technology companies and knowledge workers is given, and then the equilibrium solution of the model's “high salary and high work intensity” is obtained. The article reveals the internal mechanism of current high-tech companies and their employees' tendency to high-pay and high-intensity models, and also explains why knowledge workers take extreme actions. The research provides a reference for exploring new models of employment relationships that effectively balance economic benefits and social responsibilities.

Residential Electricity Real-time Demand Response Mechanism Based on Multi-level Game in Smart Grid

DAI Ye-ming, SUN Xi-lian, LI Lu, GAO Hong-wei

2021, 30(10):  11-17.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0307

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This paper establishes a multi-level game model to depict an electricity real-time demand response process among a power company, electricity management centers of residential users, and the devices of each user in smart grid. In this model, the power company provides electricity price to each residential user, while the residential user's electricity management center responds to the electricity price and distributes virtual retail prices for each equipment controlled by electricity management center. After that, each equipment of residential user feeds its optimal load information in response to virtual retail prices. The electricity management center determines the total electricity consumption from all residential users and sends it to the power company, then the power company recalculates to get the optimal electricity retail price. The equilibrium existence and uniqueness of multi-level game are proved, and the equilibrium is also obtained. The simulation results verify the effectiveness of proposed model, and give its practical application value.

Comparison between Cournot and Stackelberg Model Based on Technology Innovation Capability of Manufacturers

YANG Feng, CHEN Deng-hui, JIAO Chuan-ya

2021, 30(10):  18-22.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0308

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This paper investigates manufacturers' product strategies under different game models. Two game models marked Cournot game and Stackelberg game are developed and solved. Besides, an inverse method for solving the optimal decision is constructed, the method for solving the equilibrium in the two game models is given, and the results of the two game models are compared. We explore the influence of two game models on the wholesale price, profit of supplier, the product quality and profit of manufacturers. It is found that the wholesale price of supplier has nothing to do with the game models, only with the market size. It is also found that the profit of supplier as well as the product quality and profit of manufacturers are related not only to game models but also to the technology innovation capability of manufacturers.

Evolutionary Game Analysis of Regulatory Dilemmain Online Car-hailing and Optimizing Policy

FU Shu-huan, SHI Kui-ran

2021, 30(10):  23-30.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0309

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The evolutionary game method is used to study the evolution process of the game between the insurance company and the online car-hailing platform. The influencing factors of the online car-hailing platform strategy selection under the supervision of the insurance company are analyzed. The equilibrium strategiesunder the static and dynamic penalty strategies are compared. The research finds that the punitive premium of insurance companies can promote the change of strategy choice of the online car-hailing platform. Under the static penalty mechanism, the strategy choice of the online car-hailing platform and the insurance company is periodic fluctuation mode and cannot converge; under the dynamic penalty mechanism, the game presents a spiral convergence evolution track, and the convergence equilibrium point does not change with the initial probability of the strategy choice.

Government Subsidies and Development of New Energy Vehicle Industry ——Evolutionary Game Analysis Based on System Dynamics

PENG Pin, HE Xi-tu

2021, 30(10):  31-38.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0310

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New energy vehicles are regarded as a key project to alleviate energy consumption and environmental problems and become a key development target of strategic emerging industries. In order to explore the game relations among the government, automobile enterprises and consumers under the government subsidy strategy, the relationship between the government subsidy and the development of new energy vehicle industry is studied by using the evolutionary game method based on the system dynamics. In the long run, the government subsidy will weaken the core competitiveness of enterprises, and the appropriate punishment of the government to automobile enterprises will promote the development of new energy vehicle industry. In order to promote the sustainable development of the new energy vehicle industry, the government should establish the mechanism of mobile subsidy, increase the variety of subsidies timely, improve the punishment mechanism, and increase the investment in the construction of the new energy vehicle industry system and the supporting infrastructure.

A Study on the Evolutionary Game of Low Carbon Environmental Friendly Technology under the Collaborative Innovation of Government-Industry-School-Research-Finance

XIAO Han-jie, YU Fa-wen, TANG Hong-lei, PENG Ding-hong, ZHOU Jian-hua

2021, 30(10):  39-46.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0311

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Against the backdrop of the increasingly urgent response to climate change, the conditions and strategies for the participation of government, enterprises and financial institutions in low-carbon environment-friendly technology (LCEFT) innovation are investigated. The game model of coordinated innovation among government, industry, academia, research and finance for LCEFT is constructed with the hypothetical conditions of enterprise partnership and the introduction of financial subjects and research institutions, and the influence of factors such as carbon right pledge, credit rating and investment return on the coordinated innovation strategies of the game system groups is analyzed in depth. The study shows that the decision of financial institutions to participate in collaborative innovation is influenced by government incentives and penalties, profitability and risks of green credit projects, etc. The complementarity of resources and capabilities of multiple actors is the key to the formation of the LCEFT collaborative innovation alliance; the incentives and penalties of government departments can promote the cooperation of multiple actors, but it is difficult to make the overall optimal. The key to achieve the overall optimum is to effectively play the leading role of government departments and the leveraging role of financial institutions. This paper provides a new idea and a certain reference for decision making for governmental departments to formulate the management mechanism of green finance, collaborative innovation and industrialization of industry-university-research.

Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Rank Indicators on Coastal Park Tourism Environmental Carrying Capacity in Dalian

ZHU Jia-wei, WANG Er-da, SUN Wen-zhang

2021, 30(10):  47-52.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0312

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There are two critical problems in ranking of indicators on the applications of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP): one is the interference of subjective on data collection, and the other is the accurate recognition of similar weights prone to a deviation. Consequently, this paper applies triangulation distribution function and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to improve the ranking methodology on coastal tourism environmental carrying capacity indicators. In contrast, the Monte Carlo Analytic Hierarchy Process (MCAHP) approach can effectively relieve the subjectivity bias of response on both questionnaires and expert investigations in order to measure the authenticity and reliability of the evaluation results. According to this, it can obtain the empirical analysis results of indicators more accurately in Dalian, and the issues are addressed accordingly associated with costal park carrying capacity management and sustainable development of coastal tourism.

Optimal Ranked Set Select Design of Product Reliable Life

DONG Xiao-fang, ZHANG Liang-yong

2021, 30(10):  53-56.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0313

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For the estimation problem of product reliable life, the nonparametric estimator based on ranked set select sample is constructed. The estimator is shown to have strong consistency and asymptotic normality. For different types of reliable life, their optimal select sampling designs are given to maximize the estimation efficiency. Finally, the study results of asymptotic relative efficiency and practical application show that the optimal select sampling is more efficient than the simple random sampling.

The Ranking of Decision Making Units with Undesirable Factors: Two-stage Comprehensive Efficiency Approach

ZHANG Lin-yan, CHEN Ming, XU Qian, ZHANG Jian

2021, 30(10):  57-63.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0314

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The rankings of the same type of decision making units with the parallel level on performance is always one of the important issues in the management decisions field. Based on the super-efficiency and slack-based measure model in data envelopment analysis, this paper focuses on the ranking problem of DMUs with undesirable factors. This paper firstly proposes a new super-efficiency SBM model with undesirable factors. This model can not only complete rankings of the efficient DMUs, but be transformed into linear model. It also has some good properties, such as boundedness and monotonic property. This paper then proposes a comprehensive efficiency SBM ranking method with undesirable factors and a polynomial-time algorithm based on new model and Tone's SBM model. The method takes the SBM model as the first stage to rank the non-efficient DMUs and takes the new model as the second stage to rank efficient DMUs. The two stages are combined to complete the rankings of all DMUs. The results show that the comprehensive ranking method can complete rankings of DMUs with undesirable factors and provides an important theoretical basis for the practice of performance evaluation. We apply the proposed method to rank the environmental efficiencies of China's 30 provinces in 2010. The results of empirical analyses are consistent with the realities in China. It indicates that the method is reasonable. The method can complete the rankings of all regional environmental efficiencies and provide policy makers with decision support for evaluating environmental performance.

Optimal Control Policy for the M/G/1 Repairable Queueing System with Random Start-up Time and Bi-level Threshold(m,N)-Policy

KUANG Xin-yu, TANG Ying-hui

2021, 30(10):  64-70.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0315

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This paper is concerned with M/G/1 repairable queueing system with random start-up time and bi-level threshold (m,N)-strategy. Firstly, some related queueing indices of the system are analyzed. Then, we study the following reliability indices of the system caused by faults, for example, the distribution function of the first failure time, the probability of the system failure, and the expected failure number within a time interval(0,t]。 Finally, on the basis of the established cost model and combined with the actual situation of the company's testing samples, we study the optimal control strategy of double threshold(m^*,N^*), as well as compare the optimal control policy of the queueing system under which the service station doesn't fail.

A Combination Evaluation Method Based on Parallel Rank and Robustness Analysis

WANG Xiao-li, LI Jing

2021, 30(10):  71-79.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0316

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The paper presents a combination evaluation method based on parallel rank. Firstly, supposing theperformance of action is determined by utility of original decision matrix, the consistent results of a variety of single evaluation methods are treated as constraints of the utility function. Then actions are sorted by comprehensive utility and share parallel rank when they have equal utilities, which is the mean value of two goal-programing's solutions. Secondly, Weak-Kendall coefficient is defined to measure the consistency of two different ranks of actions, through which simulation experiments have been designed to analyse the robustness of combination evaluation methods when action number changes or original data are disturbed. At last, through a case from literature, using four single evaluation methods, four combination evaluation methods and Parallel-Rank method, the results show that Parallel-Rank method has better robustness. Future research directions have been given at the end of the paper according to the study on influence of the single evaluation methods selection to Parallel-Rank method.

Multi-objective Optimization Design of ARMA Control Chart Considering Efficiency and Cost

WANG Hai-yu

2021, 30(10):  80-86.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0317

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ARMA control chart is an effective quality monitoring tool for autocorrelated process. In order to optimize the efficiency and cost of the monitoring scheme of ARMA control chartsimultaneously, calculating methods of average run length and quality cost of the ARMA control chart are analyzed respectively, and a multi-objective optimization design model of the ARMA control chart is established in this paper. Using NSGA-Ш intelligent optimization algorithm, the calculating method of this model is illustrated by a numerical sample, and the noninferior solution sets of multi-objective optimization design are given for different degree of process shifts. Then the sensitivity analysis method is used to study the influence of six main design parameters on the efficiency and cost of the monitoring schemeseparately. Finally, the advantages of the multi-objective design method proposed in this paper are illustrated by comparing and analyzing other optimal design schemes of ARMA control chart.

Buffer Determination of Critical Chain Project Based on the Two-objective Optimization of Project Duration and Cost

ZHANG Jun-guang, LIU Nian

2021, 30(10):  87-94.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0318

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To improve the comprehensive utility of project duration and cost in critical chain, a buffer determination method of two-objective optimization is studied. First of all, the proposed method considers the relationship between the duration and cost of different activities, and determines the weight based on the risk exposure of the duration and cost, which solves the problem that it is difficult to quantify the duration and cost preference between different activities. Secondly, according to the weighted multi utility function, the duration and cost are normalized, and the optimal duration of different activities under the condition of the maximum comprehensive utility is determined. Finally, the project buffer is determined based on the tail-concentration method. The Monte-Carlo simulation result shows that, as opposed to traditional methods, the integrated utility of the proposed method is greatly improved, and the proposed method can protect the project duration and cost more effectively.

Comparison of Linear Normalization Methods and the Conversion Method of Reverse Indicators

CHEN Peng-yu

2021, 30(10):  95-101.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0319

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The comparison of linear normalization methods and the conversion method of reverse indicators are important research contents of comprehensive evaluation. From the perspective of internal difference information of indicator, taking TOPSIS, block distance based TOPSIS and linear weighted aggregation method as examples, the frequently used linear normalization methods are compared based on theoretical deduction and empirical analysis, and two conversion methods for reverse indicators are proposed. It is found that for the linear weighted aggregation method and TOPSIS, the difference of normalized range of the same indicator under different linear normalization methods is the key factor leading to the difference of ranking results. In addition, the conversion methods of reverse indicators proposed in this paper can not only ensure that the evaluation values of TOPSIS and block distance based TOPSIS remain unchanged before and after the conversion of reverse indicators, but also realize the equivalence of block distance based TOPSIS and linear weighted aggregation method after the conversion of reverse indicators. Finally, some suggestions for the application of linear normalization methods and conversion methods of reverse indicators are put forward.

Research on the Existence of Equilibrium Solution in the Supply Chain Financial Market

HOU Jian, BAI Xue-bin, ZHOU Yan-ming

2021, 30(10):  102-106.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0320

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According to the game theory, the financing model of SMEs in the multi-level supply chainfar from the core enterprise level is constructed. The financing characteristics of the two type enterprises (high operating capacity and low operating capacity) are compared. The paperstudies the existence of equilibrium solutions. The research shows that if the amount of enterprise loans and enterprise inventory orders is used to determine the type of enterprise,in the absence of blockchain technology, the equilibrium solution in the lending market does not necessarily exist; but if the blockchain technology exists, the equilibrium solution in the lending market always exists. The research results provide a new perspective for financial institutions reduce risks.

Interactive Mechanism of Suppliers' Choice of E-commerce Platform Sales Mode

PU Xu-jin, FU Wen-wen, SHEN Qi-wei

2021, 30(10):  107-112.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0321

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In this study, we aim to investigate how the competitive suppliers choose the e-commerce platform sales mode. The results show that there is an interactive mechanism for online sales mode selection among competitive suppliers. In the short-term, suppliers will not be affected by competitors when the commission rate is high or low; suppliers will follow the strategy of choosing the sales model of the e-commerce platform and keep consistent with the choice of competitors when the commission rate is moderate. In the long-term, we also find that competing suppliers will choose the agency selling mode when the commission rate is low; the competing suppliers will choose the reselling mode when the commission rate is high; the supplier will choose the reselling (agency selling) mode, and the competitive supplier will choose the agency selling(reselling)mode when the commission rate of the supplier is high (low) and the commission rate of the competitive supplier is low(high).

Vertical and Horizontal Cooperative Allocation Based on Hub-and-Spoke Inventory in Case of Shortage

XU Xiao-feng, SUN Yu-ping, LIN Zi-ru

2021, 30(10):  113-119.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0322

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E-commerce development requires shortening the distance between supply and demand ends, and is convenient for improving the flexible operation level of supply chain, so as to better respond to market demand, which is face with severe challenges for the vertical and horizontal cooperative allocation in warehousing and distribution. Therefore, this paper studies the optimization of the vertical and horizontal cooperative allocation in retail industry.Based on the secondary hub-and-spoke inventory system, considering the limitation of available inventory and allocation capacity, the vertical and horizontal comprehensive inventory allocation model is built to optimize the daily inventory allocation plan, by taking the minimum of additional performance cost and sales loss in the case of shortage as the optimization objective. On this basis, the improved three-layer genetic algorithm is used to solve the model, and the effectiveness of the model and the algorithm is verified by an example.

Analysis of Value Drivers Based on KPI-AHP Model ——Taking the performance assessment system of China Unicom of Hebei surrounding the responsible entities' KPI as an example

SUN Yan-yong, YAN Xiang-bin, SUN Hong-yu, SONG Ya-nan

2021, 30(10):  120-126.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0323

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Value creation is the mission goal of enterprises. The system of key performance indicator plays an important role in the process of value creation of enterprises. Whereas the effective performance indicators will be taken from considering the internal driving factors of the responsibility body. Therefore, to establish the system of key performance indicator, value creation should be taken as the goal of enterprise and the internal driving factors of the responsibility body should be considered carefully. Our study take the key performance indicator system for the responsibility body of Hebei Unicom as an example, and construct a value creation model based on the five core driving factors of the responsibility body (incentive driven, market strategy driven, resource driven, market adaptability, and operation adaptability).Through quantitative analysis with analytic hierarchy process, this paper verified the weights of key performance indicators of Hebei Unicom, as well as the internal relations and importance ordering of its value creation drivers. Our results shed light on choosing performance indicators based on value creation objectives for telecom enterprises.

Research on Local Government Environmental Governance Behavior Under the Background of Central Environmental Inspection

KOU po, HAN Ying, SHI Jun-guo

2021, 30(10):  127-133.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0324

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The improvement effect of the central environmental inspection has been affirmed, but the sustainability of the improvement effect has been questioned. Based on the evolutionary game theory, this paper constructs a dynamic replication system for local governments and pollution enterprises to explore the ways to improve environmental quality under the pressure of central environmental inspection. The results show that: in the process of central environmental inspection, the improvement of environmental quality may come from the indiscriminate shutdown of polluting enterprises; if the central government blindly increases the punishment for the local government, the local government may adopt a “one size fits all strategy”; the initial pollution and control cost in the jurisdiction affect the behavior choice of the local government. The local government's “one size fits all rectification” is the result of many factors, so the central government should coordinate all forces, make rational decisions, and promote the benign progress of central environmental supervision.

Optimal Pricing and Light-versioning of Conspicuous Virtual Goods with Status Effect

CHEN Zu-guang, GENG Wei

2021, 30(10):  134-140.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0325

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Many firms launch a light version of conspicuous virtual goods by limiting its features. In this paper, we consider a firm that sells conspicuous virtual goods in a monopoly market, and examine three light-versioning strategies with status effect for the firm. The three strategies are launching no light version, offering a free light version, and selling a light version. We obtain the firm's optimal pricing decision in each strategy, and find that the status effect always elevates the optimal price of the conspicuous virtual goods and increases the firm's profit. The strategy of selling a light version is the optimal strategy for the firm but its leading edge over launching no light version narrows as network externalities grow.

Gerber-Shiu Discounted Penalty Function for Compound Poisson-Geometric Risk Model with Investment and Barrier Dividend

SUN Zong-qi, LIU Xuan-hui

2021, 30(10):  141-145.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0326

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In order to study the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function for the compound Poisson-Geometric risk model with investment and constant barrier dividend, the defective renewal equation of the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function is obtained by using the method of total expectation formula. The closed form solution of the ruin probability with investment and constant barrier dividend for an insurance company is given that the premium amounts and the claim amounts follow exponential distribution. To illustrate the reasonableness of the obtained theoretical results and to give some important guidance suggestions on the management of insurance funds, the effects of the initial amount of preparation、the deviation coefficient、the amount of investment on the ruin probability are analyzed by two numerical examples.It is shown that:adequate initial reserve、lower compensation threshold and higher return on risky assets are important strategies to reduce ruin risk.

Application Research

A Prediction Study on the Rental Demand of Shared Bicycles Based on Combination Forecasting Method

ZHANG Jian-tong, SUN Jia-qing

2021, 30(10):  146-152.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0327

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The prediction of rental demand of Shared bicycles is necessary for bicycle enterprises to improve operation efficiency and is the premise of rescheduling bicycles. In this paper, three data-driven prediction algorithms, namely random forest, XGBoost and GBDT, are used to predict the rental demand of Shared bikes. In order to predict it more accurately, then a combinational prediction model based on vectorial projection method and the weighted logarithm averaging operator is proposed. We define the concepts of the superiority, non-inferiority and inferiority of the combinational model and prove that this method is at least a non-inferiority prediction method. Finally, this method is applied to the reality to solve the actual bicycle rental problem. The experimental results show that the method can be an effective model in the forecast of Shared bicycle rental demand and it can play a positive role in bicycle rescheduling. This method provides a new direction for the research of bicycle rental demand prediction.

Application of Improved LOBNN & AR-GARCH Model in Stock Prices Forecasting

YANG Yun, CHEN Liang, FAN Chong-Jun, YANG Jin

2021, 30(10):  153-158.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0328

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To realize the short-term prediction of stock prices, we establish a general and concise prediction model based on Laguerre orthogonal basis neural network model (LOBNN). This paper first corrects the weight solving algorithm of the original model, and then adds a new iterative algorithm to the original algorithm (New LOBNN model). In the second step, we use the ar-garch model to pre-process the original data and obtain some corresponding data results. Finally, the final prediction model is obtained by constructing weights of different models and combining them. In order to verify the effect of the algorithm, in the experimental part, this paper uses the improved model to calculate the real data and compares the prediction accuracy of the improved LOBNN & AR-GARCH model with the previous model. The final result proves that the model not only improves the prediction accuracy, but also shows the effectiveness of the improved model in actual scenes.

An Interval Time Series Combination Forecasting Approach Based on Hybrid Interval Multi-scale Decomposition

WANG Piao

2021, 30(10):  159-164.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0329

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Since traditional forecasting methods have always been based on “points” to measure time series data. however, in real life situations, many variables are limited in a given time period, and point value forecasting will lose volatility information. In order to solve this problem, this paper proposes a new combination time series forecasting method, which is based on hybrid interval multi-scale decomposition. First, we establish interval multi-scale decomposition methods, including interval discrete wavelet transform method (IDWT), interval empirical mode decomposition method (IEMD) and interval singular spectral analysis (ISSA), which can decompose the interval time series into interval trend and residuals. Then, the Holt's exponential smoothing method (Holt's), support vector regression (SVR) and BP neural network are chosen to forecast the interval trend and residuals. Furthermore, the forecasting results of all the obtained components are combined to generate the aggregated interval-valued output by employing back propagation neural network. Finally, the proposed combination approach is employed for real interval AQI time series forecasting. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed forecasting method can produce much better forecasting performance than some existing benchmark models.

Research on Spare Parts Prediction Model Based on Random Forest

HUANG Guo-xing, CAO Xian-huai, QIAN Xiao-fei

2021, 30(10):  165-168.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0330

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The fault diagnosis of ship parts is carried out, the fault diagnosis results are analyzed, the spare parts demand model of ship parts is established, and the relationship between failure probability and spare parts demand characteristics are given; The principle of random forest regression is applied to the field of spare parts demand prediction of ship parts, the prediction model based on random forest is constructed, and the accuracy of prediction results is evaluated. The results show that the application of random forest algorithm to the field of ship spare parts prediction can provide reference value for the spare parts configuration of ship equipment in a marine mission.

Fiscal Subsidy Policy and Long-Term Care Insurance Market Evolution

CHEN Kai, ZHAO Na, JIAO Yang

2021, 30(10):  169-174.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0331

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Financial subsidy policy is an important method for the government to correct market failure and drive the long-term care insurance (LTCI) market to be effective. Based on the multi-agent simulation model, this paper investigates the evolution process of LTCI market driven by different subsidy policies. It is found that when implementing the operating subsidy policy, the LTCI market is easy to evolve into a monopoly market; but implementing the product innovation subsidy policy can form a healthy and orderly market competition. The premium subsidy policy can expand the scale of demand, and the differentiated premium subsidy policy can effectively stimulate the substantial growth of demand space.

Analysis of Grand Canal Cultural Belt Developing Strategy Among Cooperative Cities Based on Evolutionary Game Theory

JIANG Hui-feng, LIU Yi-ping

2021, 30(10):  175-182.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0332

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China is advancing the construction of the Grand Canal Cultural Belt at present, and cooperation is important. In order to study the cooperation mechanism among cities along the Grand Canal cultural belt comprehensively and systematically, this paper uses the evolutionary game model and introduces the influencing factors such as economic environment, resource complementarity among cities, income distribution ratio, opportunity income, and penalty costs for the model. The results show that a good macroeconomic environment or a strong resource complementarity among cooperative cities will bring a high excess return of cooperation, so as to improve the possibility of cooperation among cities. The smaller the difference in opportunity income and penalty cost, the more likely they are to cooperate. The cost reduces the possibility of cooperation.The proportion of excess returns among cities will affect cooperation, which depends on the proportion of the cooperation costs and revenue distribution of the two parties. Therefore, it is urgent for the government to adopt policies to encourage cooperation among cities, especially those with strong resource complementarity, and strengthen the supervision. The cooperative cities should pay attention to the design of management mechanism such as interest distribution and penalty mechanism.

Non-zero-sum Stochastic Differential Portfolio Game under the Jump Diffusion Model

ZHU Huai-nian, ZHU Ying

2021, 30(10):  183-190.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0333

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In this paper, we investigate a nonzero-sum portfolio game problem between two investors which aims at maximizing their mean-variance utility under the jump diffusion model. The financial market is assumed to consist of one risk-free asset and one risky asset whose price process is governed by the jump diffusion process. By introducing the relative performance concerns, we formulate the nonzero-sum game as two utility maximization problems. Each investor is assumed to maximize his mean-variance utility of the difference between his terminal wealth and that of his competitor. By applying the stochastic control theory, analytical expressions of the equilibrium investment strategies and equilibrium value functions are obtained. Finally, some numerical examples are performed to illustrate the influence of model parameters on the equilibrium investment strategies. The results indicate that consideration of jump risks improves the investor's utility; meanwhile, the relative performance concerns of the investor increase the amount invested in the risky asset, which implies that the competition would lead the investor to be much more risk-seeking.

Research on Air Traffic Controllers' Violation Evolutionary and Supervision under Team Norms

XU Rui-hua, LUO Fan

2021, 30(10):  191-198.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0334

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To find out the evolutionary game rule of air traffic controllers' violation and supervision strategy under team norms, the evolutionary game model between controllers and safety supervision department is constructed from the perspective of evolutionary game theory. The local stability of equilibrium point of game system is analyzed. The system dynamics model of evolutionary game is established to simulate the dynamic evolution process of game strategy selection under different conditions, and the influence of model parameters on the system evolution results is analyzed. The results show that positive team norms can help the system evolve to an ideal mode, while negative team norms can make the system fall into a “bad lock” mode and “oscillation” mode. The system evolution results are influenced by the benefits of controllers' behavior, the cost of controllers' behavior, the probability of being detected, the intensity of punishment and the cost of supervision. The long-term supervision of controllers' violation can be started with encouraging the team members to carry out negative evaluation of violation and strengthening the punishment of controllers.

A Manufacturer's Emission Reduction Outsourcing Mode Selection under the Cap-and-trade Regulation: Customizing vs Ordering

XIA Liang-jie, LIU Hui, HUANG Ying, LI You-dong, SUN Ying

2021, 30(10):  199-205.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0335

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This paper studies the optimal decisions and performances of a supply chain with a manufacturer and a emission reduction service provider under the cap-and-trade regulation. The paper compares and analyzes the equilibrium and supply chain performance under two emission reduction modes: customizing and ordering. It is found that under the cap-and-trade regulation, both the manufacturer and the emission reduction service provider have optimal decisions under each emission reduction model. Under the customizing mode, as the initial carbon emission per unit product and the emission reduction cost coefficient of the manufacturer increase, the optimal production, the emission reduction service price and the emission reduction per unit product decrease; the optimal production and the emission reduction per unit product decrease as the emission reduction cost coefficient of the emission reduction service provider increase, while the emission reduction service price doses not necessarily decreases. In addition, the impacts of the emission reduction cost coefficients of the manufacturer and the service provider, and the initial carbon emission per unit product on the companies' decisions are the same in both emission reduction modes if demand function is uniformly distributed, while they are not necessarily the same in both emission reduction modes. When the demand function is uniformly distributed, regardless of the emission reduction efficiency of manufacturers and emission reduction service providers, the ordering mode is more beneficial to emission reduction service providers, while the customizing mode is more beneficial to manufacturers, but the total profit of supply chain system is related to the emission reduction cost coefficient of manufacturers.

Evaluation of Innovation Efficiency of Unicorn Listed Enterprises Based on Three Stage DEA

DEA MENG Tao, XU Guang-lin

2021, 30(10):  206-212.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0336

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Taking 64 Unicorn listed companies in China as samples, this paper uses three-stage DEA model to effectively measure the innovation efficiency of Unicorn enterprises. The results show that the improvement of enterprise scale, establishment years, government subsidies, R&D personnel quality, foreign direct investment and the level of regional economic development contribute to the improvement of enterprise innovation efficiency, while the nature of property rights and ownership concentration restrict the improvement of enterprise innovation efficiency; after eliminating the environmental impact and statistical noise, the innovation efficiency and pure technical efficiency of most enterprises increase, but still remain at a low level. The empirical results of this paper help to further improve the innovation efficiency of Unicorn enterprises, and provide a new perspective for the follow-up research of Unicorn enterprises.

Authorized Remanufacturing Financing Strategy Under Different Financing Amount Demands

FU Shuai-shuai, CHEN Wei-da, DING Jun-fei, WANG Dan-dan

2021, 30(10):  213-219.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0337

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Considering the fact that the authorized remanufacturing company's financing amount cannot meet the shortage of funds, a model for the remanufacturer under capital constraint is constructed to analyze the impact of initial capital and financing strategy on its production strategy. The results show that the initial capital under the constraints of funds becomes the key to affecting the remanufacturer's production decision, and the increase in authorization fees increase its funding pressure and limit the growth of its profits. Regardless of whether the financing amount meets the shortage of funds, the choice of remanufacturer financing strategy is limited by the initial funding. When its financing preference is risk-averse, a hybrid financing strategy can be selected. The remanufacturer's choice of equity financing under certain conditions can enhance the social benefits of remanufactured products.

Management Science

Study on Knowledge Process Outsourcing from the Relation View of the Firm

OUYANG Zhi, SU Qin

2021, 30(10):  220-226.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0338

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From the relation view of the firm, the paper investigates the potential motivations for adopting Knowledge Process Outsourcing (KPO). Specifically, excluding the differentials of service costs of two firms, it analyzes the KPO strategy considering the relational rents derived from the collaborative coproduction and transfer costs due to the information stickiness. Distinguished from the outsourcing motivation of service-cost gap, the paper finds out that it could not be enough for KPO adoption if the service provider merely has lower cost than the firm. Besides, it shows even if there's no difference among the service costs, the firm still can select KPO strategy due to high relation rents. With comparison of cost and relational vantages, the paper points out their complementarity on the outsourcing performance and the substitution effect on the KPO selection.

Decision-making and Coordination of Electrical and Electronic Products Supply Chain Under the Environmental self-regulation of Enterprises

REN Ming-ming, HUANG Jia-li, XIAO Guang-lai

2021, 30(10):  227-232.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0339

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Under the spillover effect of supplier environmental self-regulation, the decision-making and coordination model of supply chain members of electrical and electronic products was constructed. And the decision-making and profit of supply chain members under four modes was compared and analyzed. The results show that: in decentralized decision-making model, the type of the bilateral enterprises environmental self-regulation is optimal for the supplier, the manufacturer, and the chain system. In addition, the unilateral enterprise environmental self-regulation is the second. And the environmental self-regulation of enterprises does not change the profit advantage of manufacturers in the supply chain. Under the unilateral regulation mode, the profit increment of the regulator is always smaller than that of the non-regulator. Compared with the non-regulation mode, the supplier has the behavior of hold-up in the manufacturer regulation mode. Finally, the revenue sharing contract was designed to stimulate manufacturers and suppliers to participate in environmental self-regulation, which could achieve Pareto improvement of enterprise profits.

Influence of Technology Diffusion on the High-tech Industries: from the Perspective of Production Structure

LI Xiao-dong, HUANG Li, WANG Ping

2021, 30(10):  233-239.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0340

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From the perspective of production structure from the Austrian School, this study investigates the influence of the external technology diffusion on the high-tech industries in China. It proposes that technology diffusion influences technological innovation through roundaboutness of production structure, which in turn affects the output performance. By using Stata14, the five hypotheses are examined based on the panel data of four high-tech industries in China from 2005 to 2014. The results show that the external technology diffusion has a positive impact on the roundaboutness, while the industry's roundaboutness negatively influences the technological innovation capability of enterprises. The findings provide insightsinto enhancing industrial competitiveness, technological innovation, and the efficiency of innovation diffusion.