Table of Content

25 September 2021, Volume 30 Issue 9

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

A Method of Large-group Emergency Decision-making Based on Attribute Association for Incomplete RiskPreferences

XU Xuan-hua, YU Yan-fen, CHEN Xiao-hong

2021, 30(9):  1-8.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0272

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In order to solve the problem of incomplete preference information in large-group emergency decision-making, a new method of incomplete risk preference information for large-group emergency decision-making is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the optimal discrete fitting method is used to measure the risk preference factors of decision makers and then cluster them. Secondly, according to incomplete preference matrices, attribute correlation measure is carried out, and a new complementary value model based on risk preference and attribute association is proposed to obtain the complete preference information matrices. Thirdly, the principal component of attributes is extracted by principal component analysis method, aggregating information and selecting alternatives are carried out by combining attributes' weight. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified by the super emergency of typhoon sky pigeon.

Research on the Tripartite Evolutionary Game Model of Government, Enterprises and Travelers under the Carbon Tax Policy for Motor Vehicle

XU jie, CHEN fu-jian, LIU guo-ping

2021, 30(9):  9-16.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0273

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In order to promote carbon emission reduction of motor vehicles and alleviate air pollution caused by exhaust emissions, this paper uses the evolutionary games theory to explore the decision-making behavior under the vehicle carbon tax policy,builds an evolutionary game model among the three stakeholders of government administrative departments, automobile enterprises and travelers, and makes a theoretical and numerical simulation of the evolutionary path and evolution law of the model. The results show that the evolution of reducing carbon emissions of vehicles is the result of the interactive game among the government, automobile enterprises and travelers; and the government's initiative to implement the vehicle carbon tax policy can promote the other two to choose low-carbon strategies; The increase in vehicle carbon tax and subsidies for the low-carbon activities have accelerated the evolution of automobile enterprises and travelers towards their respective low-carbon strategies.

Study of an Evolutionary Game between Shipyards and Suppliers about Product Quality

XUE Lei, DAI Da-shuang

2021, 30(9):  17-24.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0274

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As a large complex product system, if the upstream product suppliers of the shipyards always provide the supporting components with quality problem, the overall ship quality will suffer from severe impact, which results in the loss of benefits for the main manufacturer (namely the shipyards). Therefore, how to improve the supporting components' quality of the suppliers is the unresolved problem for the shipyards all the time. In this paper, based on the evolutionary game theory, we combine the shipyards and the suppliers as the main body and formulate the evolutionary game model between them. By introducing the dynamic punishment mechanism of the shipyards, the control strategy of the shipyards is thoroughly analyzed. The results show that punishments and subsidies on suppliers from shipyards, suppliers' benefits and costs can directly affect the game results. Three evolutionary stable strategies between shipyards and suppliers exist and this evolutionary system presents a cyclical characteristic under the certain circumstances. When shipyards implement dynamic punishment measures, there is a stable Nash equilibrium in the mixed-strategy game model. The results can provide decision support for shipyards to urge suppliers to improve product quality.

Multi-state System Reliability Optimization based on Component Assignment

LIU Qin, SHEN Hai, LI Jian-qiang

2021, 30(9):  25-30.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0275

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To extend the binary state assumption, multi-state system reliability is to be optimized by component rearrangement in this research. The objective is to maximize the system reliability subject to total assignment cost budget. Universal generating function method is employed to assess the system availability as system reliability evaluation. This research employs an improved genetic algorithm to solve this combination optimization problem. Genetic algorithm has the advantage of flexible discrete variable design and robust search capability. A numerical experiment is conducted to validate the algorithm. The results of numerical experiment show that the proposed algorithm has satisfactory solution quality and can solve the problem efficiently in computational time. This research provides some implications for the multi-state system reliability optimization.

Joint Policy Optimizationof Condition-Based Maintenance and Spare Ordering Considering Non-Periodic Inspection

ZHAO Fei, KANG Jian-she, WANG Lei-zhen, ZHANG Xin-hui, ZHANG Jian

2021, 30(9):  31-37.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0276

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A jointly policy of condition-based maintenance (CBM) and spare ordering is proposed for a single-unit system/critical component subject to a two-stage delay-time process. A non-periodic inspection policy with various intervals is presented, in which the system is detected with the relatively longer interval T₁ during the initial deterioration process, but with a shorted interval T₂ after the defective state is firstly found by an inspection. While, the spare is ordered and imperfect maintenance (IPM) is carried out. In the subsequent deterioration process, IPM is required and performed once the defective state is revealed until the number of IPM exceeds the threshold N_max; then, a preventive replacement is needed. If a failure occurs within the inspection interval, a corrective replacement arises. According to the system's state and the spare's availability, all possible renewal events and the corresponding joint decisions are discussed and then the objective function to minimize the expected cost per unit time is established using the renewal award theorem for optimizing T₁,T₂, N_max. The results fromthe numerical example indicate that the proposed policy decreases the expected cost per unit time compared to the comparative models.

Analysis of Dynamic Signature and Residual Lifetime for Multi-state Reliability Systems

XU Fan-qi, JIA Xu-jie, SONG Xue-ying

2021, 30(9):  38-42.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0277

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The notion of signature is a basic concept and a powerful tool in the analysis of reliability systems. In this paper, the concept of bivariate signature for a 3-state system is generalized to a multivariate one, which can be used for evaluation of multi-state systems with binary components. With such a generalization, a representation for the joint survival function of the system lifetime in every specific state is obtained. Furthermore, the dynamic signature has been explored on the condition that a working used multi-state system inspected at time t and it is noted that the system is now in l(t) state and precisely q(t) failures have occurred. As a result, the dynamic signature of a multi-state system that consists of binary components at time t is given as well as its expression of the residual lifetime. In summary.

Markov Process-based Performance Analysis of Standby Systems for the Steady State

SHU Ping, GU Yi-chong, WANG Jia, BAI Guang-han, LUO Hao-yuan

2021, 30(9):  43-47.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0278

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The failure probability of each component in a standby system is different, and as a result, the deteriorate states have a distinguishing influence on the system as the component becomes stable. The importance measures can quantitatively describe the effects of failure or state transactions of components on the system reliability. In order to identify the degree of influence of key components and their status on system performance, this paper uses importance as the main index and applies Markov processes to study the performance change pattern of standby systems at steady state. First of all, based on the comprehensive importance, the variation of the system performance is studied, and the system state transition matrix is combined to derive the calculation method of the steady state value in Markov process for cold standby system and warm standby system. Then we obtain the change law of the system performance in steady state based on comprehensive importance. At last, a numerical example of the two-armed industrial robot is used to analyze the different effects on the system performance of different component states, and demonstrate the developed method.

Integrated Optimization of Yard CraneScheduling and Number of External Container Trucks Considering Relocation

ZHENG Hong-xing, DUAN Shuang, SUN Cong

2021, 30(9):  48-55.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0279

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In the inbound containeryard of the container terminal, the terminal reservation mechanism, the real-time location of thecontainers and the yard crane operation scheduling are the key factors that restrict the efficiency and congestion of the yard. In order to alleviate the congestion of theinbound container yard and improve the efficiency of the operation, in the fixed reservation period, considering the relocation rule with the least amount of real-time stacked containers, and taking into account the realistic constraints such as the non-crossing and maintaining the safety spacingbetween the yard crane, aiming at minimizing the longest completion time of the yard cranes, a mathematical optimization model is constructed. The improved genetic algorithm with embedded repair operator is designed to solve the problem. The effectiveness of the algorithm and the superiority of the solution are verified by an example experiment. It can provide decision reference for the actual operation of the yard.

Two-level Medical Facility Location Problem and Tabu Search Algorithm

CHEN Yu-ting, ZHANG Hui-zhen

2021, 30(9):  56-63.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0280

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Hierarchical diagnosis and treatment is an important part of medical-sanitary system reform, which can make full use of existing medical resources. Therefore, the hierarchy of medical institutions should be considered when selecting medical facilities. This paper uses two levels of medical facilities as the research object of site selection, and establishes a mixed-integer programming model with two-level multi-flow. Given the characteristics of this model, an algorithm based on tabu search is designed to determine the optimal location strategy. Finally, this paper takes the community health service center and regional medical center of a district of Shanghai as the research object. In the case study, a location solution for the corresponding two-level medical facilities is given. An analysis of the influence of related parameters on the siting results is also performed. The algorithm solution results provide assignments to residents who has medical needs, so that the medical resources of the region can be fully utilized and the allocation of medical facilities is more reasonable and balanced.

Transport Point Location in Air Alliance Freight Network

YAN Yan, ZHANG Jin, TANG Qiu-yu, ZHANG Hong-ji

2021, 30(9):  64-72.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0281

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This paper studies the hub location problem (HLP) of air cargo network under Aviation Alliance based on the random number and location of hub points and the limitation of capacity. Firstly, the probability function of route alliance selection is introduced to determine the probability of self operating or outsourcing transportation of routes in different segments. Secondly, according to the location center rule, the hub location model is established with the objective of minimizing the network total cost. And then the improved immune chaos genetic algorithm is used to solve the model. Finally, the case of SF Airlines is analyzed. The results show that: 1)compared with the immune chaos genetic algorithm and the immune genetic algorithm and CPLEX, the improved algorithm has strong convergence and calculation speed, and the calculation results are not much different from the accurate algorithm; 2)when the number of hub points is uncertain, the location of the hub points is mostly concentrated in the eastern cities; 3)airlines alliance can greatly reduce operating costs. Airlines company should consider joining the alliance to reduce their own costs and improve their profits.

Research on Location Optimization of Multi-level Multi-site Reverse Logistics Network Considering Return Uncertainty

CHU Liang-yong, ZUO Shi-ping, RUAN Zhi-yi

2021, 30(9):  73-79.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0282

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In the case of uncertain returns, in order to minimize the cost of the reverse logistics network in e-commerce enterprises, a multi-level multi-site mixed integer programming model is established. The target area is gridded. The distance between adjacent alternative sites and different levels of alternative sites is calculated by the distance formula on the ball. The Monte Carlo method simulates the return quantity, and designs a genetic algorithm with double chromosome coding to solve. Numerical examples verify the feasibility of the model and finds the location of the delivery sites and the return processing center when the total cost of the reverse logistics network is minimum. There is a corresponding relationship between the location of the delivery sites and the amount of returned quantities. Studying the amount of returned quantities from customers will optimize the location of the logistics network.

Game Analysis for Pricing Strategies in O2O Logistic Service Supply Chain with Fairness Concern

TAN Chun-qiao, WU Xin, ZHOU Li

2021, 30(9):  80-85.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0283

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In order to provide theoretical basis for the practice and development of logistics service supply chain under O2O mode,this paper focuses on a logistics service supply chain under the O2O model consisting of two functional logistics service providers (FLSP) and a single logistics service integrator self-operated online logistics platform (LSIO), that is, considering the logistics service integrator (LSI) operate online logistics platform on itself, fairness concern is introduced into the pricing decisions of logistics service supply chain under O2O model, the impact of fairness concern of functional logistics service provider (FLSP) on the pricing strategies and utility of supply chain members is analyzed, and practical management enlightenment for the development of logistics service supply chain under O2O model is provided. The conclusions show that in the two cases of considering only horizontal fairness concerns and considering bidirectional fairness concerns, the post-entry logistics service provider (FLSP2) should both control its horizontal fairness concerns, otherwise it will damage the utility of the logistics service supply chain under the O2O model. In the case of considering bidirectional fairness concern, while the first-entry logistics service provider (FLSP1) finds that the amount of logistics service orders allocated to itself decrease, FLSP1 have a vertical injustice aversion of LSIO, and after that FLSP1's vertical fairness concerns reach a certain level , LSIO should begin to consider the vertical fairness of FLSP1 and avoid the loss of the FLSP.

Dynamic Optimal Allocation Strategy of Idle Resources Supply Chain on Shared Platform

XU Qi, WU Cui, CHEN Qi

2021, 30(9):  86-92.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0284

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Nowadays, the sharing economy is the most active part of innovation in the emerging economy. Driven by Internet technology, market demand, capital and other factors, its field continues to expand. The sharing economy is moving from consumption to production, and extending to supply chain, which brings a new mode of production, consumption and operation management. How to re-allocate idle resources to achieve resource sharing and improve resource utilization is a new problem faced by companies in the shared supply chain. This paper investigates the resources' dynamic matching in a manufacturing supply chain that consists of two independent and competing manufacturers and a resource-service platform. We first use a differential equation to model the evolution of resource-sharing and capture the effect of matching service efforts on market demand. Next, three dynamic models are constructed in the situation of platform-dominated Stackelberg game, vertical cooperation and platform proposed cost-sharing contract respectively. Finally, by applying optimal control theory and dynamic programming theory, we identify the optimal matching strategies, the optimal trajectories of resource sharing level and profits for decentralized, centralized and cost-sharing contract systems respectively. It is found that, by introducing the cost-sharing contract, the participants' enthusiasm of idle resources supply chain, the matching efforts, and the manufacturing resources sharing level are promoted. What's more, under the cost-sharing contract profits can achieve Pareto improvement for the resources supplier, platform, resources demander and the supply chain system under certain conditions.

Research on the Decision-making of Dual-channel Supply Chain Considering Advance Selling under Different Power Structures

CAO Xiao-ning, LIU Xiao-bing

2021, 30(9):  93-99.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0285

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Given that the manufacturer distributes products through a wholly-owned direct channel and an independent traditional channel in advance and regular selling stages, we investigate the optimal strategies under different power structures in a dual-channel supply chain. Based on the relationship of the manufacturer and its retailer, we establish manufacturer-dominated Stackelberg, manufacturer-retailer Vertical Nash, and retailer-dominated Stackelberg game models respectively. Then, we compare the optimal strategies, analyze the sensitivity of key factors, and verify the robustness of game models. Finally, we find that the channel substitutability degree and marginal production cost are key factors that affect the optimal strategies and performances of supply chain members. As the channel substitutability degree increases, the market demand in advance selling turns to that in regular selling. The reason is the customers become more sensitive to the prices, which increase with the channel substitutability degree.

Government Subsidy Mechanism and Optimization Strategy of Fresh Agricultural Product Supply Chain under Retailer's Cooperative Preference

WEN Hui, WANG Xian-jia, TAO Jian-ping, CAO Xiao-gang

2021, 30(9):  100-106.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0286

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Under the background that the retailer has cooperative preference behavior, based on the characteristics of natural disasters affecting output, different government subsidy policies based on “promoting the farmer's income increase on the basis of giving priority to maximizing social welfare” are designed, and a three-stage Stackelberg game model composed of a government, a retailer and farmers is established. This paper compares and analyzes the effects of different government subsidy policies and the retailer's cooperative preference behavior on the optimal subsidy rate of the government, the optimal purchase price of the retailer, the optimal production input of farmers and the interests of the three parties, and gives the optimal subsidy policy of the government. The results show that: (1)when the cooperative preference degree of the retailer is lower than a certain critical value, and the probability of “harvest year” is moderate or high, the government's optimal subsidy policy is to provide subsidies to farmers, otherwise, the government's optimal subsidy policy is to provide subsidies to the retailer; (2)the government's optimal subsidy policy can achieve a tripartite win-win situation among the government, consumers and the members without subsidies, but do not necessarily promote the incomes of the subsidized members.

Optimal Operations Strategy for an Integrated Supply Chain with Time Varying Demand and Equal Quantity Orders

SUN Guang-lei, LI Xiao-shen, SHANG You-lin

2021, 30(9):  107-112.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0287

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This research addresses a production-orderproblem in an integrated supply chain,which consists of raw material procurement, production and distribution with time varying demand, and establishes a three echelons inventory system including raw material warehouse's material, manufacture's finished product and retailer's product. During a given finite planning horizon, the retailer has the same quantity of goods each time, and the manufacturer purchases raw materials according to the EOQ model. A strategy that determines optimal program of retailer's ordering, production start times and production volumes is designed to minimize the total cost for a given finite planning horizon. A network optimization method is used to obtain the manufacturer's optimal production strategy, a bound and exhaustive method to find the retailer's optimal order cycle, and specific algorithms and programs of Matlab are given. The model is analyzed through examples, and the results show that algorithms are feasible. The influence of each parameter on the optimal solution and the minimum cost is studied.

Optimal Pricing and Ordering Decision of the Supply Chain under Multi-factor Interference

LIU Lang, HUANG Dong-hong, PANG Jin-hui

2021, 30(9):  113-121.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0288

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When several factors such as market demand, price, risk aversion and so forth interfere at the same time, a game model of supply chain quantity discount contract is constructed to find the internal constraints of supply chain coordination. According to the revelation principle, the CVaR model with multifactorial interference is constructed and solved when the information is asymmetrical. From the simulation results of this example, it concludes that concealing production cost information can bring excess returns to suppliers while entailing excessive losses for retailers. Then, the coupling effect between price random and retailers' aversion risk is the internal cause of the bifurcation phenomenon in each decision variable in the supply chain, and it has nothing to do with whether the information is symmetrical.But information asymmetry will damage the stability of supply chain system.Furthermore, supply chain is in disorder within the region of bifurcation mutation but in coordination outside of it. At last, retailer risk neutral attitudes and the increase of information transparency contribute to improving overall supply chain performance.

Application Research

Financing Strategies for a Capital-constrained Contract Manufacturer under Co-opetition

HOU Wen-hua, NIU Pan-feng

2021, 30(9):  122-131.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0289

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We consider a co-opetition supply chain consisting of acompeting contract manufacturersand an original equipment Manufacturers (OEM) where acompeting contract manufacturer acts as both anupstream partner and a downstream competitor to an originalequipment manufacturer (OEM). When a contract manufacturer is unable to carry out sufficient production due to financial constraints, one common practice is to seek bank loans or OEM financing.In order to better explore the financing decision of co-opetition supply chain, we consider two different situations of exogenous and endogenous wholesale prices. OEM is the game of Stackelberg leader, which is close to the actual situation. The analysis results show that when the wholesale prices are exogenous variables, the choice of financing mode for contract manufacturers is mainly affected by the financing interest rate.When the wholesale price is an endogenous variable, the choice of financing mode of contract manufacturers is mainly affected by the initial amount of capital. This paper reveals the financing decision-making process of co-opetition supply chain, expounds the relationship between the choice of financing mode of contract manufacturers and their initial capital amount and financing interest rate. Finally, numerical examples are used to verify the above conclusions.

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Natural Gas Demand and Forecast of Future Demand

LI Hong-bing, ZHANG Ji-jun

2021, 30(9):  132-138.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0290

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Different influencing factors have different degrees of influence on natural gas demand. In order to fully understand the above differences, the relative degree of incidence is used to quantitatively describe the degree of correlation between natural gas demand and influencing factors. According to the principle of importance, the stepwise regression method is used to successively test the statistical significance of the influencing factors, deeply dig out the effective driving factors, and construct the “best” stepwise regression C-D production model to predict the future natural gas demand trend. The results indicate that: (1)GDP is the most important factor affecting China's natural gas demand, and energy consumption structure is also one of the important effective driving factors; (2)Based on the “optimal” stepwise regression C-D production function model which is constructed by important and effective driving factors,it achieves the prediction of inflection point fitting of historical data and has good prediction performance. And the prediction results can be used as an important reference to determine the future natural gas demand; (3)It is predicted that China's natural gas demand will increase steadily from 2020 to 2030, but the growth rate will slow down. By 2030, natural gas demand will reach approximately 566 billion cubic meters, and the growth rate will drop to 4%.

Study on Profit Model and Pricing Strategy of Online Short-term Rental Platform

ZHAO Ju, WANG Yan, LIU Long

2021, 30(9):  139-144.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0291

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As one of the most important platforms for sharing economy, the online short-term rental platform has its own distinctive features. First of all, it only provides services such as displaying room information rather than providing products. At the same time, it only decides the amount and the object of the commission for the transaction but has the landlord decide the quality and price of the rental service. We set up three-stage dynamic game models respectively under the three kinds of online short-term rental platform profit models-the landlord, the tenant, and the two sides of users are charged commissions for the transaction. The service quality and price equilibrium are derived by backward induction. Through equilibrium analysis, the following conclusions can be drawn. At first, regardless of the profit model chosen by the platform, when the number of landlords on the platform is small, the increase in the number of landlords is not conducive to profitability of the platform. And when the number of landlords exceeds the threshold of the scale, the increase in the number of landlords will bring more benefits to the platform. Interestingly, if the platform wants to attract more consumers, the profit model that charges the landlord for trading commissions is not always optimal.

Research on Equilibrium Pricing and Market Performance of Firms in Three-tier Supply Chain with Cross-shareholding

SHI Yuan, WANG Xin-hua, GAO Hong-wei

2021, 30(9):  145-151.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0292

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In order to strengthen strategic cooperation, cross-shareholding among firms in supply chain has become popular. How does cross-shareholding affect operating decisions and performance of supply chain firms? Can cross-shareholding improve the efficiency of supply chain operation and achieve a win-win between the chain's firms and consumers? These have always been hot issues people pay attention to. Although there have been a lot of literature on cross-shareholding between firms in two-tier supply chain, the research on cross-shareholding among firms in three-tier supply chain is very rare. This paper firstly establishes the profit formulation of cross-shareholding among firms by using the mechanism of feedback control. On this basis, conducting Stackelberg pricing game model of firms in three-tier supply chain with cross-shareholding, and carrying out elaborate and tedious mathematical deduction by backward induction, the equilibrium price and profit formula of each firm in the supply chain are derived. The influence of cross-shareholding level on equilibrium market price, firms' profits, consumer surplus and economic welfare is analyzed. The results show that, compared with non-cross-shareholding, only downstream firms' one-way shareholding in upstream firms has no effect on the supply chain performance. Properly increasing upstream firms' shareholding in downstream firms, while restricting downstream firms' shareholding in upstream firms, can effectively lower market price, increase the chain's total profit and all firms' profits, raise consumer surplus, and improve economic welfare, so as to realize a win-win situation between firms in the supply chain and consumers.

Study on Retailer's Two-Stage Dynamic Pricing Considering Consumer Behavior Transformation

WANG Dao-ping, SONG Yu-qing

2021, 30(9):  152-157.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0293

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Considering the different behavioral characteristics presented by consumers, they are divided into two categories: strategic and short-sighted. Different types of consumers will give a differential valuation for the same product. Assuming that this valuation is randomly distributed, the retailer's two-stage dynamic pricing problem considering consumer behavior transformation is studied. The paper introduces consumer surplus to describe the market response characteristics of strategic and short-sight consumers, consider the discount rate, establish a two-stage dynamic pricing model, and analyze the differential decision-making process of different types of consumers, and the paper uses the inverse-push method to solve the established dynamic pricing model so as to get the best price strategy. The research shows that consumers expect both the quantity of purchases and the price cuts to be negatively correlated with the conversion rate. In addition, by comparing the total expected profit of retailers in the two cases of considering conversion and not considering conversion, we find that if the retailer does not consider the conversion rate, only according to the consumer composition of the initial market survey, product pricing will bring losses to the retailer, and the profit difference between the two cases will increase first and then decrease with the increase of the conversion rate.

A Non-homogeneous Evolutionary Game Research on Mobile Source Pollution Regulation

WEN Dan-hui, MENG Si-hui, DING Shou-hong

2021, 30(9):  158-163.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0294

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Mobile source pollution is a difficulty in China's environmental regulation. The relationship between regulators and vehicle polluters is analyzed here. A non-homogeneous evolutionary game model is established by studying marginal costs and marginal benefits, and the influence of changing regulatory costs and non-homogeneous pollution control costs on the evolutionary stability strategy(ESS)is analyzed. The calculation results show that, under different cost conditions, there are three evolutionary equilibriums: effective supervision, ineffective supervision and formal supervision. Among them, the lower penalty level leads to the problem of low pollution control level in the effective supervision; Ineffective supervision will appear in areas with weak supervision strength; In the formal supervision, non-standard rectification will lead to formalism problem of low improvement. The main conclusions are as follows: The penalty level of motor vehicles pollution should be increased to reduce pollution emission; The long-term cooperation mechanism of motor pollution supervision and new technologies should be adopted to reduce supervision costs and strengthen the supervision effect; The rectification procedures should be standardized to prevent formalism in mobile source pollution regulation.

European Vulnerable Option Pricing Considering Corporate Information Disclosure Emotion

LIU Gui-fang, XU Wei-jun, HUANG Jing-long, ZHAO Qi

2021, 30(9):  164-171.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0295

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From the perspective of company information disclosure, quantitative data intuitively reflects the company's operating and financial status, while descriptive unstructured text information is an effective supplement to quantitative data. This article excavates the text information of credit default from the company's annual report, constructs the sentiment index of the intonation variable to regulate the default threshold of vulnerable options, and improves the classic Klein's vulnerable option pricing model. The research shows that as the index of intonation variables increases, the price of European call and put options shows a decreasing trend. And the closer the index is to 1, the faster the price of the option decreases. It shows that option prices are more sensitive to negative emotions, which is in line with the actual conditions of the financial market. In addition, the empirical research results show that the Klein model that does not consider sentiment indicators tends to underestimate option prices. The introduction of sentiment indicators into the vulnerable option pricing model can more accurately analyze the impact of a company's financial distress on credit risk, and the results are closer to the actual market.

Research on Information Spillover between Sino-US Stock Markets Based on DAG-SEM Model

WU Xiao-fei, ZHU Shu-zhen, WANG Su-xue

2021, 30(9):  172-179.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0296

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Based on the Sino-US trade war, this paper studies the dynamic spillover effects of the American stock market, the Chinese A-share market and the Hong Kong stock market. The static and dynamic methods of information index model and DAG-SEM model are used to measure the direction, intensity, and dynamic process of information spillover of volatility between markets. It is found that during the trade war, the spillover intensity between the stock markets of the two countries and domestic sub-markets increases. There is a two-way information spillover between the Chinese mainland stock market and the US stock market, and the “direction alternation” between the S&P 500 index and the CSI 300 index is more than the Dow Jones index and the CSI 300 index. In particular, in the white-hot stage of the trade war, that is, from the second half of 2018 to the first half of 2019, the information spillover of the Chinese mainland stock market to the Hong Kong stock market is stronger than that of the American stock market, becoming the main conductor of Hong Kong stock information spillover.

Success and Defeat Come from Him ——Senior Manager's Financial Career and Corporate Bond Financing

CHEN Ke-jing, XIE Hong-yang, KANG Yan-ling, JIANG Lin

2021, 30(9):  180-186.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0297

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Based on imprinting theory and upper Echelons theory, this paper uses corporate bond data issued by Chinese listed companies from 2008 to 2018 to examine the mechanism of senior executives' financial career on corporate bond financing. The finding is that senior executives' financial career can help increase the success rate of issuing corporate bond, but increase bond's credit spread and default risk. However, the amount and maturity of bond issuance are not affected by senior executives' financial career. These results are robust after considering endogenous problems. Then, the mechanism test finds that companies hiring senior executives with financial career perform more earning management, causing the increase of success rate of bond issuance, credit spread and default risk. Finally, when senior executives have served in the security company or commercial bank, the impact of financial career on bond issuance is more significant. This paper can help people understand the influence mechanism of senior manager's heterogeneous characteristics on corporate bond financing and provide reliable theoretical basis for regulators to formulate policies to prevent financial risks.

Research on the Farmer's Financing Mode Selection under Stochastic Yield and Demand

YE Fei, XIE Ze-fei, CAI Zi-gong

2021, 30(9):  187-193.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0298

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Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy,but there have been many difficulties with agricultural financing. Agricultural supply chain finance provides a new financing way for the agricultural modernization and promotes the development of agriculture. Considering the bankruptcy risk of farmers, the randomness of output and the uncertainty of market demand, this paper establishes a decision-making model of order agriculture supply chain composed of a single company and a single farmer with capital constraints,and analyzes the optimal decision-making behavior of the company and the farmer under different financing modes. The results show that under the bank credit, the increase of bank interest rate will reduce the farmers' income. But in the portfolio credit, this result is not invariable, too high or too low corporate interest rate and bank interest rate will damage the farmers' income. When the company interest rate is greater than the bank interest rate and the growth cycle of agricultural products is long or when the company interest rate is less than the bank interest rate and the growth cycle of agricultural products is short, the farmer can choose the bank credit to obtain the optimal income when the bank interest rate is small, and the farmer should choose trade credit when the bank interest rate is large. In other cases, the farmer needs to consider factors such as the price sensitive coefficient to decide whether to choose the combination of credit model.

Research on the Influence of Payment Model and Rating System on the Competition of Credit Rating Agency

ZHOU Yan, ZHAO Xi-nan, HUANG Shi-tong

2021, 30(9):  194-202.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0299

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Based on the reform controversy and the key role of the credit rating industry, this paper establishes a platform competition model consisting of credit rating agencies, bond issuers and bond investors according to two-sided market characteristics of the credit rating industry. In order to compare the competition behavior and social welfare of credit rating agencies, the model sets the three institutional backgrounds of issuer-pay & single-rated, investor-pay & single-rated and issuer-pay & dual-rated. The study finds that under the system of issuer-pay & single-rated, the credit rating agencies have the highest rating fees and profit levels, and the social total welfare level is in the middle. Promoting investor-pay under the single-rated system can appropriately improve the total social welfare level, and credit rating agencies are least affected. Therefore, investor-pay & single-rated is the best choice for the current reform of China's credit rating system. Under the single-rated system, credit rating agencies can increase the rating price and profit level by increasing the degree of differentiation, but under the dual-rated system, they face the challenge of new competitive decision-making.

Risk Assessment Approach for Service Outsourcing Based on Probabilistic Linguistic Term Set

ZHANG Yong-zheng, YE Chun-ming, GENG Xiu-li

2021, 30(9):  203-209.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0300

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Taking into account the uncertainty of service outsourcing risk assessment, probabilistic linguistic term set is used to obtain the expert evaluation information required by the FMEA method, and the linguistic set is given different degrees of preference by assigning corresponding probabilities. For the traditional FMEA method, the mutual influence relationships among risks are not considered and the risk severity assessment is insufficient accuracy. The generalized Choquet integral is used to analyse the net influence degrees of risks, then the corrected risk severity is obtained. Considering the inaccuracy of the direct multiplication of severity, occurrence and detection, the probabilistic linguistic VIKOR method is used to comprehensively evaluate the three factors of risk. Finally, a case study of risk assessment for the service outsourcing of public sport stadium is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Equity Incentives, Manager Heterogeneity and Private Benefits of Control

LI Bing-xiang, ZHANG Tao-tao, SUN Yue

2021, 30(9):  210-215.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0301

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This paper discusses the role of different types of managers in the relationship between equity incentives and PBC. A-share listed companies in 2008~2018 are selected for empirical verification. The results show that independent managers have a positive adjustment effect on equity incentives to suppress PBC, and dependent managers have not played an effective supervisory effect; in an environment with low internal control quality, equity incentive has more significant inhibiting effect on PBC and better substitution effect. This study deepens the understanding of the role of managers in corporate governance and broadens the research on PBC.

Management Science

Three Parties' Evolutionary Game of Stakeholders in Green Technology Innovation and Their Simulation

LI Wan-hong, LI Na, LIU Fang

2021, 30(9):  216-224.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0302

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Based on Stakeholder Theory and Evolutionary Game Theory, this paper explores the roles and functions of relevant stakeholders in green technology innovation activities, and constructs evolutionary game model among the government, enterprise and public, and uses MATLAB simulation to analyze the evolutionary decision-making behavior of three-group under different stability conditions. The results show that there is a path-dependence in the behavior selection strategies among the government, enterprise and public in the green technology innovation activities. Appropriate government public environmental protection publicity implementation can promote green technology innovation development. Furthermore, government's technological innovation incentives drive companies to adopt green technology innovations, but high technological innovation incentives hinder government environmental regulation. The collection of pollution taxes and fees also will promote the adoption of green technology innovation. Therefore, the government can improve environmental regulations, strengthen the main position of green technology innovation of enterprises, and encourage the public's enthusiasm for supervision, so that the three parties work together to promote the development of green technology innovation.

Pricing and Market Eentry of the Green Product: Based on the Perspective of Power Structures

JIN Liang, XIONG Jing, XU Lu

2021, 30(9):  225-231.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0303

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Considering a supply chain composed of two competing manufactures and a retailer, the retailer is supplied by two manufacturers, i.e., the brown product produced by a brown product manufacturer and the green product produced by a green manufacturer. According to the power structure differences, three types of models are constructed in this paper, which are manufacturer-dominated structure, retailer-dominated structure and power equivalent structure. By the solutions, we derive, for each supply chain participant, the optimal profit of system, and the equilibrium pricing, demands, profits under each power structures. Our analysis shows that the existence of green product manufacturer's market entry is beneficial to the retailer, though it could be harmful to the brown product manufacturer under certain conditions. Furthermore, faced with the green product manufacturer's entry, the market encroachment and the different power structures may softens the price competition, and it leads to the lower profit for the incumbent manufacturer, the higher profit of the retailer and the system. This implies that the manufacturer or the retailer unfair advantage decreases the profit of whole supply chain.

Is There an Inverted U-shaped Relationship between Carbon Emissions and Economic Development in China? ——Accounting Time-related Effects and Heterogeneity

TIAN Cheng-shi, LIU Yi

2021, 30(9):  232-239.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0304

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As economy enters a period of high-quality development, the relationship between economic development and carbon emission has been paid more and more attention. The paper empirically explores the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development in China by nonparametric Generalized Additive Mixed Models based on the panel data of provinces from 1997 to 2016.In the paper, as independent variables the unobserved time-related effects and the residual auto-correlation structure are taken into the model and the possibly heterogeneous of the income and time-related effects across provinces are considered. The empirical results show that the income effects in the eastern and central regions is heterogeneous and time-related effects in the western region is heterogeneous. There is no inverted U-shaped relationship between carbon emissions and economic development. We should take into account the economic development stages,regional differences and the heterogeneity of drivers of carbon emissions in the energy-saving and emission-reduction in the future.