Table of Content

25 March 2021, Volume 30 Issue 3

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Selection of Logistics Providers Based on Vague Sets

JIA Qi, YANG Fan, WANG Tie-ning

2021, 30(3):  1-6.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0067

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The transformation and construction of the army put forward higher requirements for the material support capability. It is an important and effective means to select excellent logistics providers for cooperation, but how to select a suitable logistics provider is an urgent problem to be solved. First, we construct a logistics evaluation index system with 6 first level indexes and 20 second level indexes. On this basis, we use the classification method based on correspondence analysis to preliminarily classify the logistics companies into categories, and select the first two types of enterprises as the inspection partners. Then we use the Vague sets to further sort and select the most appropriate logistics companies. Finally, the effectiveness of the method is proved by an example.

Research into Military Family Risk Based on ANP and Fuzzy Clustering

LIU Hui, LI Ren-chuan

2021, 30(3):  7-14.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0068

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The risk of military family members is an important part of military risk. Risk management is related to the stability of the army. There is an ambiguity in the risk attribute of military family members. At present, there is no standardized theoretical guidance and practical management experience. This paper tries to analyze the factor and weight of the risk factors of military personnel by constructing the ANP model, and uses the fuzzy clustering method to cluster the risk of military family members with the typical personal risk, property risk and responsibility risk, in order to find the most suitable classification and reach the mature management model of the typical risk, and put forward corresponding management suggestions. The study finds that 13 indexes, such as the risk of accidental injury and the risk of housing security, constitute the main factors of the military risk. The risk of military family members is the same type as the risk of responsibility at the level of 0.95.We take the risk of military family members as the object, and the family members’ social security and housing security as the key content. The three liability insurance system constitute the military insurance, and the commercial insurance and the military mutual assistance insurance is the key to improve the risk management of military families.

Evolutionary Game Analysis of Enterprises’ Green Innovation Behavior ——Based on the Participation of Environmental Social Organization

ZHENG Min-na, REN Guang-qian

2021, 30(3):  15-21.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0069

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Green innovation is an effective way for enterprises to deal with the government’s environmental regulation. The participation of environmental protection social organizations is a powerful supplement to the government’s environmental regulation. This paper studies the interaction mechanism of environmental protection social organization, government and enterprises through the evolutionary game model based on enterprise green innovation. The results show that increasing the proportion of social organizations involved in environmental protection supervision, green innovation support provided by the environmental protection social organization to enterprise to, the detessence pressure on entewpsses' pallution actions, and other factors all can influence evolution results. This paper provides suggestions to promote enterprises’ green innovation from the perspective of the government, environmental social organizations and enterprises.

A Study of Path-Player Network Games with Limited Flow on Each Edge

LOU Zhen-kai, HOU Fu-jun, LOU Xu-ming

2021, 30(3):  22-26.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0070

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This paper concerns path-player network games in the presence of limited flow on each edge. Considering the feature of monotonically increasing of the revenue function of each player, we examine the properties of the discussed game and formulate it by a path-player game model with common edges. In the process of searching equilibrium solutions, we first analyze the noncooperative situation. Under the assumption that all the players are risk neutral, we show an approach to find the Nash equilibrium and additionally demonstrate that the equilibrium flow allocation determined by the approach is unique. We further consider the possibility of cooperation among the players, propose a model to maximize the overall revenue, and then determine the unique allocation solution by modifying the Nash bargaining model. In fact, this solution is the equal division of surplus revenues. Finally we present a numerical illustration to verify the feasibility of the methods proposed in this paper.

Joint Optimization of Two-phase Inspection and Spare Parts Ordering Policies Considering Imperfect Inspection

HAN Meng-ying, YANG Jian-hua

2021, 30(3):  27-34.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0071

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In line with the fact that equipment maintenance and spare parts management affect and restrict each other, this paper proposes a joint optimization model of two-phase inspection and spare parts ordering policy considering imperfect inspections based on the delay time theory. The inspection is imperfect, and preventive renewal needs to be carried out once a defect is detected; failure renewal should be performed when the equipment is at fault. With the consideration of the states of the spare parts when the equipment is required to be renewed, the joint optimization model is established based on the renewal reward theory, in which the minimal long-run expected cost per unit time is taken as objective function to optimize the first phase inspection time, the second phase inspection interval and the spare parts ordering time. Finally, an artificial bee colony algorithm is developed to find the optimal solution. The two-phase inspection policy is compared with the periodical inspection policy in the numerical analysis and the results show that the two-phase inspection policy is always superior to the periodical inspection policy; and the effectiveness of the proposed model is verified.

Optimization of Rebate Decision for an Internet Agency under Demand Uncertainty

YU Niu, LUO Fu, ZHENG Ben-rong

2021, 30(3):  35-41.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0072

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In the era of e-commerce and informatization, the advantage of promotion by internet agency is becoming increasingly significant for firms. Rebate promotion needs consumers to buy the products with full price and redeem the refund later, which is different from the discount promotion. We model a sales system comprising a manufacturer and an internet agency, in which the demand is stochastic and depends on price and rebate promotion, then examine the pricing and stocking strategies of the manufacturer and the rebate decision of the agency under Stackelberg game theory. Our results show that, the agency would like to offer more rebates to consumers when consumers are more sensitive to the rebate promotion. As a result, there is a win-win situation for both the manufacturer and agency. However, as the rebate redemption increases, the agency will shrink the rebate value in his best interest, while it hurts the manufacturer’s profit.

Production Decision Optimizing Analysis of Two-level Supply Chain under Subsidy Back-slope and Double Integral Policy

YU Xiao-hui, YE Zhao-xing, Li Min

2021, 30(3):  42-49.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0073

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Under the policy of regression and Double Integral, we focus on a production decision-making problem for a two-level supply chain composed of an automobile manufacturer and a distributor. Based on Stackelberg game, we analyze the impact of downhill and Double Integral policy on optimal decision-making of automobile manufacturers and distributors. In order to help automobile supply chain in the Double Integral policy, we also compare the supply chain performance in the centralized and decentralized decision-making. The research shows that when the Double Integral policy is not implemented, the demand for new energy vehicles and the profit of manufacturers will decrease with the decrease of subsidies. After the implementation of the Double Integral policy, the demand for new energy vehicles increases by the continuous improvement of R& D efforts of automobile manufacturers, and Pareto Improvement is obtained on the profits of manufacturers and distributors. The numerical analysis shows that the Double Integral policy can effectively promote the development of new energy vehicles.

A Two-sided Matching Decision Model Based on Advantage Sequences

ZHANG Li-li, MA Dan-ni, LOU Yuan

2021, 30(3):  50-56.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0074

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With the purpose of solving the matching problem based on advantage structure, preferences of traditional bilateral matching methods are given directly, but these methods ignore advantage differences among matching individuals, which can cause resources mismatching and even wasting. Based on the human-oriented logic, we propose a new two-sided matching decision model based on advantage sequences. First, we define ordinal value according to mathematical advantage structure of matching subjects, which is calculated by quantifying the qualitative indeterminate matching criterion according to the degree of importance. Second, we introduce formula of individual advantage comprehensive value into objective function for satisfaction. Third, we construct a multi-objective model and transform it into a single-objective model based on weighting method. The assignment problem is solved based on Hungarian method with the stability and satisfaction. Finally, an example is given to prove the scientific and feasibility of this method.

An Approach to Interval Pythagorean Fuzzy VIKOR Multi-attribute Group Decision Making

LIN Wen-hao, CHEN Mei-qian, ZHOU Li-gang, LIN Zhi-chao

2021, 30(3):  57-64.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0075

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Aimed at the group decision problem whose attribute information is interval Pythagorean fuzzy set and the attribute weight and expert weight are unknown, combined with information entropy theory, an interval Pythagorean fuzzy VIKOR multi-attribute group decision making method is proposed. Firstly, a new interval Pythagorean fuzzy distance measure is defined, and its properties are discussed. Secondly, based on the distance measure, the interval Pythagorean fuzzy relative distance index is presented and entropy model are constructed to determine the weights of experts and attributes. Then an interval Pythagorean fuzzy VIKOR multi-attribute group decision making method is proposed. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed new method are illustrated by the enterprise production plan selection case.

Service Level Decision of Scientific Instrument Sharing Platform

XIE Jia-ping, XIA Yu, LIANG Ling, LIU dan

2021, 30(3):  65-70.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0076

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To deal with the problem of low scientific research conversion rate, scientific instrument sharing platforms emerge. These sharing platforms provide high-level service to increase the research efficiency of the customers while optimizing the allocations of scientific instrument resources. However, the increased service level may reduce the renting time of customers and hurt the efficiency of the sharing mechanism. To make a proper service level decision that balances service quality and the efficiency of instrument sharing mechanism, we introduce the service decision of the platform in the traditional double-sided sharing platform model. The results show that appropriate service level of the platform increases the efficiency of the society. If the commission rate of the platform is low, high service level increases the society welfare. A small amount of self-owned instrument of the platform increases the profit of the platform. However, excessive self-owned instrument hurts the efficiency of sharing mechanism.

Hesitant Fuzzy Group Decision Making Based on Factor Space Theory

LV Jin-hui, GUO Si-cong

2021, 30(3):  71-75.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0077

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To make full use of data information, in this paper we propose hesitant fuzzy set as feedback extension of concept. Then, the relationship and operation of the hesitant fuzzy sets, considered as the hesitancy degree, are given; Based on this operation, the extension envelope of fuzzy concept is defined, and the preference information is gathered by using it. At last, the group decision making procedure is given and the above theory is applied in example.

Pricing and Recycling Mode Selection of Closed-loop Supply Chain Considering the Maintenance Center Participation into Recycling Process

BIAN Wen-liang, PAN Yue, WANG Wen-bin, QUAN Shi-yuan, LIU Xiao-yan

2021, 30(3):  76-82.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0078

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With the proposition of the extended producer responsibility, manufacturing companies are not only responsible for the production of products, but also for the recycling and disposal of waste products. At present, most manufacturing companies recycle waste products through recyclers, and ignore the recycling channel of the maintenance center. The maintenance center can not only recover the waste products for compensation, but also obtain replaced parts during the repair process for free, which can reduce the recycling cost. Taking this situation into account, we first propose two recycling modes: a single recycling channel mode of a recycler, a dual recycling channel mode of a third-party maintenance center and a recycler. The Stackelberg game model is used to obtain the optimal pricing of enterprises in the two modes. Second, we analyze the optimal solution and parameters of the model. Finally, we compare and analyze these two modes. Our research shows some interesting results. Under both modes, the increase in the quantity of parts obtained for free by the official maintenance center will have a positive impact on the manufacturer’s profit, but it will not affect the manufacturer’s repurchase price. Under a dual recycling channel mode, the repurchase price of the manufacturer decreases with the quantity of parts obtained for free by the third-party maintenance center, and the profit of the manufacturer increases with the quantity of parts obtained for free by the third-party maintenance center. From the perspective of maximizing the total quantity of paid recycled products, when the quantity of parts obtained for free by the third-party maintenance center is low and the degree of competition between the two channels is high, the dual recycling channel mode should be selected; otherwise, the single recycling channel mode should be selected. From the perspective of maximizing the profit of the manufacturer, the mode selection is related to the relative size of the quantity of free parts obtained by the official maintenance center under two modes.

Decision and Coordination for Third-party Collecting Closed-loop Supply Chain with Two Competing Retailers

YAO Feng-min, LIU shan, TENG Chun-xian

2021, 30(3):  83-89.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0079

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In order to study the pricing decision and coordination problems of closed-oop supply chain (CLSC) with two competing retailers and a third-party collector, the optimization models of CLSC are constructed under centralized and decentralized systems respectively, and a coordination mechanism based on improved K-S method is established. The results show that: the manufacturer always receives more channel profits than the two retailers and the third-party collector under decentralized decision. The enhancement of competition between the two retailers in product price can not only effectively increase product sales, but also promote the recycling of waste products. The channel member’s cooperative strategies can effectively avoid the “double marginal” effect of CLSC systems, and the manufacturer has more incentive to cooperate compared with the two retailers and third-party collector.

Research on the Operation Strategy of Dual Channel Supply Chain with Advance Booking Discount and Delay in Payment

GUO Jin-sen, YANG Ping, ZHOU Yong-wu, LI Ji-cai

2021, 30(3):  90-97.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0080

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In a random demand environment, we focus on a supply chain system which consists of a dual-channel manufacturer and a traditional channel retailer. We construct the operational model under four different contract strategies, and obtain the two partners’ optimal operate strategies and profit. The results show that the two partners’ profit may be both hurt when the two channels both provide the different contracts in their channels under some conditions. Furthermore, the results also show that when the retailer provides the advance booking discount contract, the optimal strategy of the manufacturer does not provide any contract in his online channel, but can take a free riding of the retailer’s sales effort, and then maximizes profit.

Design of Online Purchasing Mechanism Based on Gaussian Distribution and Its Competitive Analysis

XU Jin-hong, XU Wei-jun, QIN Xu

2021, 30(3):  98-103.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0081

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Purchasing auction attached to Internet e-commerce poses new challenges to the traditional Bayesian offline auction theory, because in the face of bidding at different time, the purchasing transactions mechanism of e-commerce must be able to determine whether to win the bid or the purchase price. In view of this, for e-procurement of infinitely separable commodities such as petroleum and grain, this paper designs an incentive-compatible online procurement strategy based on the bids with Gaussian distribution characteristics, and deducts the mathematical model of online procurement. We give an algorithm using Runge-Kutta numerical method to solve the complicated mathematical model. With the numerical simulation, the online procurement mechanism strategy is obtained. The competitive performance of the online procurement strategy using the information of bids with Gaussian distribution is much better than the online reverse auction strategy obtained by pure competition analysis. In summary, the use of statistical information in the design of competitive strategies for online procurement auctions significantly improves the competitive performance of online strategies.

Value Segmentation of Airline Customers Based on K-means and Neighborhood Rough Set

LIU Xiao, WANG Xiao-li

2021, 30(3):  104-111.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0082

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Value segmentation and identifying important value customers is vital to airline profitability. In this paper, we develop the value segmentation model of airline customers based on K-means and neighborhood rough set. Firstly, according to the current value and potential value of customers, comprehensive value evaluation index system of airline customers is established. Next, customers are clustered using k-means based on Elbow method. Neighborhood rough set modelis used for attribute reduction. Then, customers are grouped by the reduced decision system. SMOTE method is used to remove imbalance of data before evaluation. Then, Grid search method is used to optimize parameters of ensemble classifiers and segmentation results are evaluated. At last, customer value segmentation is finished according to the evaluation results. In the end, 62988real airline customer records are used for empirical analysis. Theresults show that classification accuracy of the potential VIP customers reachesto92%. The model we propose provides a new idea for value segmentation of airline customers.

The Position Value with Coalition Structures

SHAN Er-fang, LYU Wen-rong, SHI Ji-lei

2021, 30(3):  112-116.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0083

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A well-known component efficient solution for graph games is the position value, which fully reflects the role of the links to cooperate in graph games, and is applied to measure centrality of networks. Based on the cooperative games with coalition and graph structures proposed by van den Brink et al., this paper extends the position value to graph games with coalition structure, and proposes the position value with coalition structure. Thisvaluecanbeusedasameasureforofcentrality constrained by priority coalitions in networks. First, we show that the position value with coalition structur isdeter ineuni uely ypartiti ncom onentefficiencyandbalancedlinkcontribution.Secondly, byacaseontransnationalnaturalgas pipelines, wecomparethevalue with several others.

The Preventive Maintenance Policy for a Two-component Series System with Two Types of Failures

GAO Qiao-qiao

2021, 30(3):  117-122.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0084

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In this paper, we study the preventive maintenance policy for a two-component series system with two types of failures. When the working time of the system reaches, the system will be preventively repaired, and the preventive maintenance will restore every component to the state which is the same as the last failure repair. The system has two types of failures, one is repairable, the other is unrepairable. When the repairable failure occurs, the system will be repaired by the repairman, the successive survival times of the component will form a stochastically decreasing geometric process and the consecutive repair times after component failures will form a stochastically increasing geometric process. The system will be replaced by a new and identical one at the time following theth repairable failure or once unrepairable failure. We look for a bivariate policy, whoseis the time interval of two consecutive preventive maintenance, is the repairable failure time of the component before replacement. By using the renewal process theory and geometric process theory, the explicit expression of the long-run expected cost per unit time is derived. Finally, a numerical example is given.

An Adapted Genetic Algorithm Based on the Critical Chain with Improving Search to Solve the Decentralized Resource-constrained Multi-project Scheduling Problem

ZHANG Jing-wen, LIU Wan-jun, LI Qi

2021, 30(3):  123-129.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0085

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Aimed at the deficiency of solving decentralized multi-project scheduling problem based on multi-agent system, an adapted genetic algorithm ccm_GA is developed. The uniqueness of the ccm_GA is reflected in two aspects. First, the amended serial scheduling process eliminatesboth global and local resource conflicts in two stages. Second, in scheduling schemes that satisfy two types of resource constraints, the critical chain is identified and the position of the critical activity in the activity sequence coding is changed to increase the diversity of the solution so as to improve the search efficiency. Numerical experiments are designed and carried out to test the performance of the algorithm, and the results are compared with the six algorithms in the existing literature. The results show that:ccm_GA has better test indexes than the other six algorithms in 50% of the example sets. And the tighter the resource constraints are, the better the solution results of ccm_GA are.

Application Research

Ecological Environmental Security Evaluation Based on Cloud Model and Evidential Reasoning

HU Dong-bin, XIE Ling

2021, 30(3):  130-136.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0086

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This paper proposes a comprehensive ecological environmental security evaluation model based on cloud model and evidence reasoning. Firstly, the ecological environmental security evaluation index system is constructed and divided into grade intervals. The actual value of each index is transformed into the relevance degree of ecological environmental security level through cloud model. Secondly, the index weight is determined dynamically and statically by using the combination of evidence reasoning and entropy method. After that, we use evidence reasoning to calculate the basic probability assignment function of each index, and then the evidence fusion algorithm to synthesize the ecological security comprehensive evaluation probability distribution. Finally, the evaluation result is obtained according to the ' maximum correlation criterion' . This paper takes Hunan province as an example. The evaluation results of the model in this paper are consistent with the evaluation grade results of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, but the uncertainty of the evaluation results is lower than that of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, which verifies the rationality, feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Channel Integration Strategy of Retailers Based on E-coupon from the Perspective of Mental Accounting ——A Case Study of Uniqlo

SHI Kui-ran, JI Yi-qing

2021, 30(3):  137-143.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0087

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At present, retailer’s channel strategyhas shifted from the self-governingoperation mode to concentration on channel integration. More and more retailers begin to attract online consumer to buy products in offline channel by offering e-coupon.Based on the case study of Uniqlo channel integration, the concept of mental accounting income illusion is introduced to develop a Hotelling model between two retailers with different channel strategies. The result shows that e-coupon can transfer consumer from online to offline channel, and retailer can profit from market scale expansion in some way. Moreover, the retailer’s coupon strategy is influenced by retailer’s increased income from consumer’s extra purchases in offline store. Meanwhile, the income illusion formed by consumer’s mental accounting and the heterogeneity of their preferences for online channels also affect coupon strategy.

Research on Improvement Method and Application of Group Evaluation Data Quality Based on the Degree of Grey Incidence and Cloud Model

LIU Guo-dong, ZHU Jian-jun, LIU Xiao-di

2021, 30(3):  144-150.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0088

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Aiming at the data quality problem in group evaluation, the outlier data processing is carried out from the perspectives of evaluation experts and evaluation values, and a data quality improvement method based on the degree of grey incidence and cloud model is proposed. Based on the improved cloud distance model, the gap between the evaluated object cloud and the target cloud is measured, and the TOPSIS method is used for ranking. The data quality improvement method and cloud distance algorithm are applied to group evaluation of the regional logistics competitiveness, which improves the data quality of the group evaluation and enhances the stability and representativeness of the evaluation results.

Study on the Incentive Effect of the Optimal Emission Reduction Subsidy Policy for Renewable Energy Generators

SHANG Bo, HUANG Tao-zhen

2021, 30(3):  151-158.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0089

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In view of prominent contradiction of the traditional emission reduction subsidy incentive policy, this paper analyzes how the government effectively designs and optimizes the emission reduction subsidy policy from the perspective of incentive compatibility constraint and participation constraint condition. On this basis, the incentive effect of the government' s optimal emission reduction subsidy policy under different circumstances is numerically analyzed: Firstly, based on the maximum emission reduction of optimal power generation, the maximum critical value and minimum critical value of the government' s equilibrium coefficient for social welfare of increasing environmental economic benefits and saving electricity and coal consumption are determined under the condition that the emission reduction level is sensitive to the intensity of electricity production. Secondly, the rationality and reliability of the negative incentive effect of emission reduction subsidy policy under the condition of strong or weak sensitivity are analyzed based on the optimal benefit of the power generators with the critical minimum value as the benchmark. Finally, based on the cost analysis of the government' s optimal emission reduction subsidy, this paper analyzes the positive incentive effect of emission reduction subsidy policy on power generators under the sensitive condition of strength and weakness. The conclusion of this study provides decision-making basis and management enlightenment for the governments of coal-fired power generation regions to scientifically guide renewable energy generators to participate in emission reduction cooperation actively and formulate effective emission reduction subsidy incentive policies.

Licensing Strategy of Innovation with the Participation of Patent Intermediaries

FENG Lin, PENG Ya-zhi, NIE Jia-jia

2021, 30(3):  159-164.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0090

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With the development of innovative technologies, the roles of patent intermediaries (PIs) have gained more and more attention. The innovations provided by external innovators are sold in an auction to the highest bidder among the firms and the PI. In this study, it is considered that an external innovator auctions a quality-improving innovation to two manufacturing enterprises and the PI. Then the innovation will be licensed by the winner. We analyze the production decisions of the two enterprises and the influence of the PI on the market based on Stackelberg game model. The degree of innovation is divided into three types, i.e., incremental, moderate and radical innovation. It is obtained that: 1)The following enterprise cannot win the innovation directly in the bidding; 2)If the leading enterprise wins the innovation, it will license the innovation to the following enterprise under the incremental innovation, and if the IP wins the innovation, it will license the innovation to the leading enterprise under the radical innovation; 3)The PI will increase the profit of the external innovator and reduce the profit of leading enterprise.

Evaluation and Analysis of the Real-name Check of Railway Electronic Ticket Based on DEA-Game Theory Model

YAO Jiao, TANG Qing-yun, CHEN Xue-min, GUO Xiao-feng, XIONG Yang-hui

2021, 30(3):  165-170.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0091

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Combining data envelopment analysis (DEA) model with Nash bargaining game theory, we apply a cooperative game method to evaluate real-name check of railway electronic ticket, which evaluates efficiency of railway electronic ticket real-name check accurately, and propose suggestions of decision making on service level improvement of railway passenger. In this paper, with 20 railway stations of different levels as the research object, 7 indexes of 2 classes (manual and machine) are selected as input, which are proportion of identification (ID) ticket buying, proportion of commuting employee ticket buying, proportion of temporary ID ticket buying, passengers /hour/channel in manual check, passengers/machine/hour, proposition of automatic identification, and proposition of delay of machine. In the output index, proposition of real-name check is used, which means consistency of passenger, identification, and ticket. Furthermore, a cooperative game model, which combines DEA with Nash bargaining game theory, is used for a unified and comprehensive evaluation of real-name check of railway electronic ticket in view of manual and machine. The results of case study show that there is unbalance allocated status between manual and machine check efficiency of railway electronic ticket, and the mismatch between machine supply and requirement in stations is the main reason for poor efficiency of real-name check of railway electronic check. From all these results, suggestions are put forward in view of manual and machine, which will improve the efficiency of real-name check of railway electronic ticket.

Educational Programs Development Strategy in Universities under Consumer Non-uniform Preference

TAN Xiu-li, CHEN Zhong-quan, WU Ying-kai, LUI Xin-yang

2021, 30(3):  171-176.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0092

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In order to explore the competitive strategy of universities at different levels under the stochastic demand of education projects, by using the basic principles of Stackelberg game, this paper constructs a positioning design model for developing similar educational projects in different levels of universities with non-uniform distribution of consumer preferences, and analyzes the influence of the consumption’s preference behavior on the income of educational programs and the competitive strategies of both parties. The results show that H-type universities(higher reputation) are not affected by market factors such as consumer preferences, and always choose the largest differentiation strategy. L-type universities (lower reputation) adopt the maximum differentiation strategy when consumers tend to be on their own side when consumers have indifferent preferences and they are not affected by other factors in the market. When the consumer’s indifferent preference is biased toward other parties, and if the market demand probability is less than 0.5, L-type universities choose the maximum differentiation strategy. Otherwise, L-type universities’ decision will be affected by the factors such as the market probability and Initial Bit Value, and choose the maximum differentiation strategy, limited differentiation strategy, or limited convergence strategy.

Research on Manufacturing Industry Upgrading in Yangtze River Delta Based on Area Grey IncidenceModel of Close Degree

YU Peng, MA Heng

2021, 30(3):  177-182.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0093

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Based on the concept of manufacturing industry upgrade, the paper constructs a three-dimensional evaluation indicator system involving the structure goodness of manufacturing industry, the value chain height, and the degree of environmental protection. According to the TOPSIS idea, the grey incidence coefficient is represented by the areas enclosed by two adjacent points between the evaluated object sequence and the positive and negative ideal sequences, respectively. Then, the revised G1 by standard deviation weighting method is used to assign weights to indicators, and further the close degree of grey incidence is calculated.In order to give weights to time series, the time variable is introduced to perform the dynamic evaluation of the status of manufacturing industry upgrading in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD). It is shown that from 2010 to 2016, Shanghai ranked first, Jiangsu second, Zhejiang third and Anhui last. Anhui is the weakest in terms of the status of manufacturing industry upgrading in the YRD.Based on the above conclusions, the policy recommendations for manufacturing industry upgrading in the YRD are given.

Forecasting Credit Spread of Chinese Corporate Bonds Based on NS-group Models

XU Li-jing, ZHOU Rong-xi, XIONG Ya-hui

2021, 30(3):  183-189.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0094

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Taking Chinese corporate bonds as the research objects, based on the NS-group models, this paper studies the prediction of credit spread. By empirically comparing the prediction effects of in sample and out of sample on the credit spread of corporate bonds with different maturities and credit ratings, the main conclusions are as follows: The first is that the error of models in predicting the credit spread of medium-term and long-term corporate bonds is smaller than that of short-term corporate bonds. The second is that the prediction effects on the credit spread of corporate bonds with different credit ratings vary with maturities. The results provide concrete ideas and methods to predict credit spread for different economic entities, which are conducive to making reasonable financial decisions.

Internet Development and Improvement of Innovation Efficiency ——Empirical Evidence from China’s High-tech Industry

YANY Shui-li, LI Lei

2021, 30(3):  190-198.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0095

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How to improve the efficiency of industrial innovation is a hot issue of academic concern. Based on the provincial panel data from 2009 to 2018, this paper discusses the impact mechanism of the Internet on the innovation efficiency of high-tech industries from the perspective of direct impact and indirect impact. The study finds that the Internet significantly promotes the innovation efficiency of high-tech industries, and the conclusion is still valid after considering the endogenous problems. At the same time, this impact has obvious lagging effects and regional differences, which can help reduce the innovation efficiency between backward and developed region gap.The test results based on the intermediary effect model show that the Internet can promote the innovation efficiency of high-tech industries by improving technology research and development capabilities and achievement transformation capabilities. This research can provide enlightenment for effectively advancing the “Internet+” strategy and the “innovation-driven development” strategy.

Analysis of the Threshold of the Firms’ Number in the Formation of Patent Pool

YUAN Wen-bang

2021, 30(3):  199-203.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0096

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The main purpose of the patent pool is to reduce the transaction costs of patent licensing, which increases with the number of patent holders. Aiming at the relationship between patent holders and the formation of patent pools, the paper analyzes the impact of transaction cost and patent licensing fee rate on the minimum number of patent holders required for the formation of patent pool within the framework of three stages game: whether to form patent pool, deciding the scale of foreign licensing and product market competition. The results show that there is a number threshold of patent holders requirement for forming a patent pool, and the threshold value changes inversely with transaction costs and patent licensing rates. At the same time, there exists a boundary value in the patent licensing rate related to the number of patent holders.If the patent licensing rateis lower than the boundary, the optimal scale of external authorization of patent pool increases with the licensing fee rate, and on the other side of the boundary value, it decreases with the licensing rate, and reaches the maximum at the boundary value.

Research on the Impact of Investor Site Visits on the Market Reaction Caused by Rumors

LI Hao-yang, HAN Lin, SUN Qian

2021, 30(3):  204-211.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0097

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Based on the perspective of investor information acquisition, this paper uses a sample of companies listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2013 to 2017 to empirically test whether investor site visits can reduce the market reaction caused by rumors, and discusses the mechanism of action from the intermediary role of investor trading behavior. The study finds that investor site visits has significantly reduced the market reaction caused by rumors through making market trading behaviors more rational, and this effect is more pronounced in the companies which have experienced significant changes in current performance. The above results are still established after a series of robustness tests, indicating that investor site visits can improve market pricing efficiency through strengthening the ability of the capital market to distinguish rumors. Further testing finds that the participation of investors in research activities and the disclosure of research information both help to improve the rational decision-making level, and investor site visits significantly improve the timeliness of the companies’ clarification announcements of rumors.

Management Science

Study on the Impact of Designing for Remanufacturing on Manu Facturing/Remanu Facturing from the Authorization Remanufacturing Perspective

XIA Xi-Qiang, ZHU Qing-Hua

2021, 30(3):  212-217.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0098

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Thegamemodelis constructed between an OEM and a remanufacturer in order to analyze the effect of designing for remanufacturing on the competition under the different ways of bearing for the designing for remanufacturing cost based on authorization remanufacturing. Based on the game model, the effect of designing for remanufacturing on the optimal Nash equilibrium solution is comparatively analyzed under the different load-bearing ways. The main research results are as follows: the authorization remanufacturing can not only change the OEM’s competitive disadvantage, but also increase its revenue; Based on the authorization remanufacturing, the OEM and remanufacturer are willing to bear the cost of designing for remanufacturing only when the design for remanufacturing brings a large amount of revenue to the two unit products; although the design for remanufacturing can reduce the unit retail price of the two product, it does not always increase consumer surplus.

Product Promotion Considering Quality Signal Releasing

GUO Xiao-long, WANG Yuan-yuan, ZHANG Yu-qiao

2021, 30(3):  218-225.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0099

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At present, some firms try to promote products by the method of releasing quality signal, which creates the situation in which the product is very popular. However, is it really beneficial for firms? In this paper, considering consumers’ reference-dependent utility, we study the optimal price in four cases, including low-end firm not releasing quality signal in short-run business, low-end firm releasing quality signal in short-run business, low-end firm not releasing quality signal in long-run business, and low-end firm releasing quality signal in long-run business(LD). Then we analyze howreference-dependent utility and releasing have an effect on this promotion strategy. We find that in the case of LD, product price increases with quality difference but decreases with the level of quality signal releasing. Moreover, releasing helps low-end firms to increase demand in short-term. Therefore, releasing is beneficial for firms whose consumers will never return, such as shops in tourist attractions. However, in long-run business, this promotion strategy will hurt the whole market.

Tunneling Analysis of State-owned Enterprises in PPP Projects

GAO Ruo-lan, HU Jia, LIU Ji-cai

2021, 30(3):  226-231.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0100

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In PPP (public-private partnership) projects, state-owned enterprises often use the advantages of control and information asymmetry to implement tunneling behavior, which increases the resistance of private enterprises to participation in PPP projects, damages the overall interests of the projects, and is even not conducive to the sustainable development of PPP schemes. Based on the analysis of different forms and the formation mechanism of tunneling, both the implementation condition model and the probability model of tunneling are constructed, through game theory and portfolio model respectively. The results show that the precondition for the tunneling by state-owned enterprises is the control power. The greater the proportion of mining cost to project benefits, the higher the required control power. And the probability of tunneling behavior improves with the decreased mining costs and the increased control power of PPP projects. Moreover, to enhance a better understanding and verify the feasibility and applicability of the models presented earlier in the paper, the application of these models is demonstrated by furnishing a case study-Shuangfengsi Reservoir PPP project through the Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the paper proposes a few policy recommendations to control of tunneling effectively, including improving the bargaining power of private enterprises, increasing the transparency of project information, strengthening government supervision and attempting to impose synergy across the state-owned enterprises and the whole projects. The findings contribute new insights into the development between PPP schemes and the behavior by the stakeholders, helping curb the tunneling to improve the governance mechanism of PPP projects and promote the sustainable development of PPP schemes.

“Green Paradox” Effect of New-energy Vehicles Based on System Dynamics

CHEN Zhen, ZHANG Kang-hui, JIA Shu-wei

2021, 30(3):  232-239.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0101

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Faced with increasingly severe environmental problems, in order to reduce the emission of pollutants from motor vehicles, Chinese governments have issued corresponding policies to encourage the development of new energy vehicles. New energy vehicles mainly use electricity as the driving force, which can effectively reduce the degree of air pollution. In this paper, the system dynamics method is used to build the model. From the perspective of the system, the VENSIM software is used for simulation to explore the causes of the “green paradox”. The dynamic simulation results show that the policy has a significant effect on the implementation phase of the impact of new energy vehicles, but with the passage of time, the marginal utility of the policy will gradually reduce; and the increase of the total amount of new energy vehicles directly eats up or even exceeds the resources saved, and brings about the adverse consequences of the shortage of parking spaces and the increase of road congestion. In particular, this paper uses dynamic simulation to explore the effects of the development policy of new energy vehicles on the total energy consumption, degree of traffic congestion, side effects and parking space changes, so as to achieve the quantitative analysis of the “green paradox” effect and explore their reasons. Finally, some suggestions are put forward from the aspects of technology and policy.