Table of Content

25 February 2021, Volume 30 Issue 2

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Tripartite-players Evolutionary Game Analysis of the Manufacturing Capacity Sharing in the Environment of Sharing Economy

HAO Jia-qin, ZHAO Dao-zhi

2021, 30(2):  1-7.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0034

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With the arising of manufacturing capacity sharing, the traditional manufacturing mode is changed and the balance of the original manufacturing system is broken. In order to study the decision-making behavior of manufacturing capacity sharing participants, an evolutionary game model composed of three game players of “capacity sharing platforms——enterprises with manufacturing capacity——enterprises demanding manufacturing capacity” is established based on the assumptions of the network externality of capacity sharing platforms, accessing cost ofmanufacturing enterprise and bounded rationality. And the evolutionary stability strategy of the modelis analyzed by theevolutionary game theory. The influence of the access cost of manufacturing enterprises and the network externality coefficient of the capacity sharing platforms on the stability of the dynamic system is discussed; and the economic and management significance of evolutionary stability strategy is given. Finally, a contrastive analysis of evolutionaryresults affected by diverse parametric variations is performed by numerical simulation. This paper provides a theoretical reference for capacity sharing platforms and the behavior decision of manufacturing enterprises.

Research on Evolutionary Game of Military-Civil Cooperation Innovation: Based on the Support of Government

ZHANG Fang, CAI Jian-feng

2021, 30(2):  8-15.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0035

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It is important for both military and civilian sides to promote the Military-Civil Cooperation Innovation in the context of military-civilian deep integration. The study builds a tripartite game model of private enterprises, military enterprises and government based on the basic theory and method of evolutionary game, finds out the stable strategy which can makethe whole system in equilibrium state and analysesthe influence of different parameters on the technological innovation of civil-military cooperation. The results showthat under the different support of government, private enterprises and military enterprises tend to achieve the stability of military-civil cooperation innovation through mutual beneficial interactions. With time, the government will eventually choose not to provide support, and different ways of support exit at different speeds;Government should optimize different ways of support.

Clustering Method of Consumers' Perception Recommendation Trust in Social Commerce

YIN Jin, HU Xiang-pei, ZHENG Yi, ZHOU Zi-xuan

2021, 30(2):  16-24.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0036

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The massive and highly dynamic recommendations, as well as the high interactivity among people in the emerging social commerce, have posed a new challenge to the platform in terms of analyzing consumer's perceived trust. Nevertheless, the method of clustering recommendations has its limitation in reflecting consumer's subjectivity and social relationship. In order to solve the problem, this study intends to transform the cluster of recommendations into the partition of a compound network. In this case, a clustering method for consumer's perceived trust in social commerce is elaborated by combining subjective logical method with spectral bisection algorithm based on the Normal matrix. In the proposed method, recommendation information is firstly turned into perceived recommendation trust. Afterwards, similarities between perceived recommendation trust and intimacy degree network are extracted from the social network, and a Normal matrix is generated and then portioned with spectral bisection algorithm. Finally, practicability and effectiveness is proved by several simulation experiments. The model proposed by the study will throw new light on the analysis of consumer's perceived trust and provide precise marketing strategies to the platform.

A Differential Game Model on Clean Technology Innovation for Transboundary Pollution Control

YI Yong-xi, CHENG Su-su, FU Chun-yan

2021, 30(2):  25-30.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0037

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Taking clean technology levels as an endogenous variable, this paper investigates a differentia game between two symmetric countries for clean technology innovation with technology overflow. In this model, participating countries can improve the quality of clean technology in two ways——investing in clean technology themselves or waiting for the spillover of innovation investment from each other. Strategic space the two countries can choose includes non-cooperative and cooperative strategies. The results demonstrate that the intensity of technology spillover has a negative impact on participating countries' technology investment and technology level. Compared with non-cooperation, the cooperation of transboundary pollution control enables countries to obtain cleaner technologies and higher social welfare at a lower cost.

Large Group Risky Emergency Decision-Making Method Based on Trust-Knowledge Model in Social Network Environment

XU Xuan-hua, LUI Shang-long

2021, 30(2):  31-38.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0038

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The purpose of this paper is to solve the problem that the trust relationship between the large group emergency decision-making experts and the decision-making risk are caused by the transmission, as well as the problem of generating independent aggregation resulting from the large differences in individual preferences among large groups. Firstly, a “trust-knowledge model” is proposed to integrate and transfer the trust relationship between decision-making experts, and the trust knowledge network between decision-making experts is obtained according to the trust risk preference of decision-making experts. Secondly, the network of trust knowledge degree is clustered by Louvain algorithm to obtain several aggregations efficiently and quickly, and we use the technology of social network analysis to determine the weight of each decision maker and aggregation. Then we aggregate the decision makers' preferences in each aggregation, sorting the information given by the decision makers to rank the alternative decision schemes. Finally, the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified by a case analysis and a comparative study.

Probabilistic Linguistic Multi-attribute Variable Weighted Decision Making Method Based on Online Evaluation Information

WANG Lan-lin, LI Deng-feng

2021, 30(2):  39-44.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0039

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A probabilistic linguistic multi-attribute variable weighted decision making method is proposed by using a large amount of online evaluation information. Firstly, online evaluation information with respect to each attribute is described as probabilistic linguistic term, the decision matrix about probabilistic linguistic is constructed, and the score function of the interval probabilistic linguistic term is redefined. Secondly, by variable weighted analysis method to deal with decision matrix, we can get the attribute weights of different alternatives. Then, based on regret theory, the alternatives' comprehensive perceived utilities can be calculated and ranked accordingly. Finally, with the online evaluation information provided by the website ‘autohome.com.cn', the feasibility and rationality of the proposed method in this paper are proved through an analysis of a car selection example.

Intuitionistic Uncertain Linguistic Multi-attribute Decision Making Method Considering the Multi-input Relationship and Semantic Transformation

LIU Zheng-min, XU Hong-xue, LIU Pei-de, LIANG Xia

2021, 30(2):  45-52.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0040

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To deal with multi-attribute decision making (MADM) problems with intuitionistic uncertain linguistic variables (IULVs), a MADM method is proposed to capture the interrelationship among multi-inputs and satisfy different semantic transformation requirements. First, considering the lack of closeness and flexibility of existing operational rules, some new operational rules and ranking method for IULVsare developed by combining the concept of linguistic scale function. Then, based on these new operations, the intuitionistic uncertain linguistic Hamy mean (IULHAM) operator and its weighted version (IULWHAM) are proposed to aggregate IULVs, which can model the interrelationship among multi-inputs. Meanwhile, some of desirable properties and special cases of the proposed operators are studied and discussed. Furthermore, a new MADM method with IULVs is proposed based on the proposed IULWHAM operator. Finally, an illustrative example is conducted to show the validity and discuss the advantages of the proposed method by comparing with other existing MADM methods with IULVs.

Integration Optimization Research on Location-Inventory-Routing Problem Considering Out-of-Stock Strategy in Closed-loop Supply Chain

YUCHI Qun-li, HE Zheng-wen, WANG Neng-min

2021, 30(2):  53-60.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0041

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Remanufacturing is an important strategy for companies to achieve environmental friendliness and enhance economic efficiency. Remanufacturing network promotes the emergence of new business mode, namely product service system. The product service system can effectively solve the problem of remanufactured product acceptance. However, it has not considered the existing literature on remanufactured networks. This paper studies a location-routing-inventory problem considering out-of-stock strategy in a closed-loop supply chain. A mixed nonlinear program model is constructed to minimize the location, routing, inventory and out-of-stock cost. This paper proposes an improved tabu search to solve the problem. This paper demonstrates three results: (i)the algorithm proposed in this paper can obtain better solution than classical tabu search in an acceptable time. (ii)the numerical example results show that recycling products can improve the benefit of a company. (iii)when the recovery rate is constant, out-of-stock strategy can reduce operational costs.

Optimization of Rural Terminal Logistics Resources Integration under Service Integrator Mode by Introducing Integration Risk

SUO Li-sai, YAO Jian-ming, ZHOU Jia-hui

2021, 30(2):  61-67.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0042

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Based on the analysis of the operation characteristics of the rural terminal logistics resources under service integrator mode, and the mining and quantification of key factors, the main types of risks faced by the integration process are proposed. Then,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is introduced to quantify the integration risk, and the service integrator mode rural terminal logistics resource integration optimization model is established. Finally, the corresponding solving algorithm is constructed, and the feasibility and effectiveness of the model and algorithm are verified by an example. The results show that the integrated decision-making model with risk factors is more suitable for the actual operation characteristics of terminal logistics resources and the special environment of rural areas, and provides method support for service integrators to integrate terminal logistics resources in practice. The ideas and methods of rural terminal resource integration and optimization proposed in this paper have important reference significance for the long-term development of service integrator mode.

Research on Morning Commute Problem for Household Travels in Bottlenecks

LI Chao-ting, LI Min, WU Zhong-ming

2021, 30(2):  68-74.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0043

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For the double bottlenecks traffic network containing one bottleneck in both of the two consecutive road part, the travel behavior of the household which needs to go through double bottlenecks to reach two destinations: the school and then the company are investigated. This paper firstly proposes the user equilibrium model under no-toll situation. Then, we study the congestion charge model, and according to the discussion on the difference of starting time between school and work, the optimal toll scheme and charging time window that minimize the system total cost are obtained. We find that congestion charge can effectively reduce the system cost, and that a lower system cost can be obtained when the difference between the two desired arrival times is small. Finally, the numerical results verify that the peak time length remains unchanged, and achieve the charging plan based on which the system cost is optimal.

Topic Detection Algorithm Based on Bilateral Cosine Similarity

WU Sen, GAO Xiao-nan, HE Hui-xia

2021, 30(2):  75-83.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0044

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Topic detection is an important research issue for the trending topics prediction on social networking platforms. Most of the existing topic detection algorithms measure the similarity between text data using cosine similarity, which cannot recognize the differences between data objects when the values of each dimension change proportionally resulting in inaccurate similarity computing results and affecting the accuracy of topic detection. A topic detection algorithm based on bilateral cosine similarity (TABOC) is proposed in this paper. Firstly, we propose bilateral cosine similarity, which can not only distinguish data objects whose values change proportionally of each dimension, but also retain the advantage of cosine similarity in direction discrimination to improve the accuracy of the text similarity from two perspectives of direction and value. Next, the bilateral cosine feature vector of a set and the additivity of the bilateral cosine feature vector are defined. The unrelated information is abandoned and the bilateral cosine feature vectors of new merged clusters can be directly computed. In this way, the time and space complexities are reduced. Finally, we propose the topic detection algorithm combining with the incremental clustering paradigm, and the new data can be processed efficiently. The experiments with data from Baidutieba show that TABOC is effective and feasible for topic detection, and the accuracy and time efficiency of the algorithm are generally better than other baselines.

Order Picking of Multi-channel Intensive Mobile Shelf Based on Genetic Algorithm

ZHOU Li, YANG Jiang-long

2021, 30(2):  84-90.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0045

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More and more intensive mobile shelves are used in storage practice, which improves the utilization of storage space, but increases the time cost of order picking at the same time. According to the storage layout characteristics of intensive mobile shelves, for the case where multiple channels can be opened at the same time, the rack moving time is converted into the channel moving distance for calculation, and an optimization rule for multiple channels to move in sequence is proposed. A mathematical model for order optimization of order picking is established with the objective of minimizing the total time spent in order picking of multiple orders in a batch. According to the characteristics of the model, a real-coded genetic algorithm with global optimization is designed, and simulations of different scales are performed. The calculation results show that the algorithm has strong applicability, which has significant optimization effects for different scale problems; small increases and decreases in the number of shelves, the number of orders, and the number of moving channels will cause large fluctuations in total picking time; when the initial positions of multiple moving channels are in the middle or are evenly dispersed, the total picking time is slightly better than that when they are concentrated at one end of the storage system.

Optimal Operational Strategies for Service Enterprise under Social Interactions

LI Cheng-zhang, JIANG Ming-hui

2021, 30(2):  91-96.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0046

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This paper mainly does a research of how to decide the optimal price and service rate in order to maximize a service enterprise's profit under social interactions. Purchase decisions of customers are analyzed first based on the M/M/1 model. The influence of social interactions on the optimal price and service rate strategies for a profit-maximizing-seeking service firm in a fixed market is then investigated. Furthermore, the effect of social interactions on enterprise's equilibrium operational decisions and market share in competition environment is explored. The research results in this work indicate that social interactions can always influence the optimal operational strategies in different direction and degree for a monopolist firm or in a competitive market.

A Type of Two-stage Assignment Problem

LIN Hao, LIN Lan

2021, 30(2):  97-101.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0047

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The classical assignment problem studies the binary matchings between the resources and tasks. As a generalization, the 3-dimensional assignment problem studies the triple matchings between the resources, tasks, and services. The former is well solved by efficient algorithms, while the latter is a well-known NP-hard problem. This paper discusses a two-stage assignment problem between these two levels, which is a special 3-dimensional assignment problem that can be decomposed into two-stage decision. Several polynomial-time algorithms are presented.

Government Subsidy Strategy and Effect Analysis of Closed-loop Supply Chain Based on Distributor Remanufacturing

DI Wei-min, XU Wen-jun, XIA Xi-qiang

2021, 30(2):  102-109.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0048

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For a closed-loop supply chain in which manufacturers design remanufacturing and in turn distributors plan remanufacturing, three Stackelberg game models under three strategies, namely, no government subsidy, subsidy for distributor to remanufacture and subsidy for manufacturer to remanufacture design, are established respectively, and the effects of different subsidy strategies on the decision-making of supply chain members are analyzed. Moreover, the advantages and disadvantages of different subsidy strategies under the same subsidy amount are analyzed through numerical simulations. The results show that compared with no subsidy strategy, the two subsidy strategies may reduce the selling prices of both new and remanufactured products, increase the sales of remanufactured products and improve the manufacturer's remanufacturing design level, as well as decrease the sales of new products when the demand of remanufactured product is less than that of new products and increase the sales when the two demands are equal; additionally, in the case of the demand of remanufactured products less than that of new products and under the same government subsidy amount, the subsidizing distributor strategy may lower the selling prices of some items such as both new and remanufactured products and the sales of new products, and also raise ones of other items such as remanufactured products and the profits of both the manufacturer and distributor, while the subsidizing manufacturer strategy further prompts the manufacturer's remanufacturing design level.

Application Research

The Timing Choice Model and Empirical Study of Overseas Regional Technology Platform Investment

WU Chong, BO Si-yi, ZHANG Shi-fan

2021, 30(2):  110-116.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0049

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Based on the first phase of “mature technology product promotion” and the second phase of “new technology product development” in overseas regional technology platform(RTP)investment of backwardness enterprise, this paper constructs a two-stage real option model. Further, based on OFDI sample of Chinese listed companies in manufacturing industry, this paper empirically analyzes the decisive factors and effects of RTP investment timing choice. The research results show that, the smaller exogenous uncertainty in the first stage, the larger endogenous uncertainty in the second stage, and the larger the growth option for new product projects, the more the enterprises tend to RTP invest as soon as possible. Furthermore, under the different conditions of endogenous and exogenous uncertainties in the two stages, the investment timing of RTP has a significant difference effect on the innovation growth of enterprises.

Proactive and Reactive Cash Flow Dynamically Balanced Project Scheduling Optimization Based on Random Activities Durations

NING Min-jing, ZHENG Xiao-qiang, HE Zheng-wen

2021, 30(2):  117-123.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0050

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It is important to implement projects successfully and smoothly, the contractors' cash flow of which is balanced in uncertain circumstances. The authors study proactive and reactive cash flow balanced project scheduling problem based on random duration of activities. The purpose of this paper is to generate a baseline schedule for the contractor and to adjust it dynamically during the project executing process. The proactive scheduling optimization model is constructed and then the authors provide two reactive optimization models to adjust the baseline schedule. Further, a hybrid algorithm, tabu-SA, is developed to solve the studied problem. Ultimately, for the proactive scheduling model, experiment is conducted on the standard project instances set and further large scale reactive simulations are performed on each instance. The research could provide decision supports for the contractors to ensure cash flow to be balanced in the environments with random activities duration.

Optimizing the Cooperation Model of China's Investment Abroad under the Conditions of Unequal Risk and Benefit

LI Xuan, ZHANG Hai-liang

2021, 30(2):  124-129.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0051

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To solve the problems of capital shortage and un-proceeding project during the process of foreign investment, the unequal risk return model among Chinesegovernment,host government and investors is established based on the theory of risk sharing. The interests of members in investment abroad are complex. How to minimize risks is the concern of investment abroad. The purpose of this paper is to design a risk-sharing model that can attract social capital investment and ensure the smooth progress of China's investment abroad. Two investment strategies are proposed, which consider the optimal investment value and the optimal investors value respectively. Based on numeral simulations, the effects of the cost-sharing ratio and profit-sharing ratio on investment timing and investment value are simulated. The conclusion shows an optimal cost sharing rate between the Chinese government and social capital, and optimal profit sharing ratio between the host government and investors.

An Empirical Study on the Influence of Night Trading on the China's Agricultural Products Futures Market

YAO Hai-xiang, HONG Ya-fang, MA Qing-hua, HUANG Yu-xin

2021, 30(2):  130-138.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0052

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With the further deepening of the internationalization of China's financial market and the further strengthening of the linkage between important agricultural products futures and the international market, in order to prevent the overnight risk and price diving of related futures products, China implements a night trading system for some agricultural products futures. In order to measure whether the trading system of night trading is beneficial to the development of agricultural futures market in a stable and rational direction, based on the comprehensive analysis of the lack and deficiency of existing research, this paper adopts the GARCH family model suitable for characterizing the volatility of financial series. The empirical result shows that the GARCH, GARCH-M and EGARCH models can highly fit the price series of agricultural futures and significantly measure the impact of night trading on China's agricultural futures market. The conclusions of the study are as follows: First, based on the empirical results of the GRACH model, the regression results of the night trading variables of the night trading are significant. The system can reduce the price fluctuation of agricultural futures, and its impact is significant. Second, the regression results of the EGARCH model are also significant. Comparing the empirical results of the EGARCH model in different sample periods, the opening of the night trading reduces the asymmetry of the agricultural futures market, making the market tend to develop in a rational direction.

SARIMA-ANN Model Application in Seasonal Problem of Employee Turnover

PENG Li-jun, MA Yue-ru

2021, 30(2):  139-145.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0053

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The data and its extension tendency of employee turnover in Chinese enterprises cannot be well fitted and predicted by a single Autoregressive Integrated Moving-average Model (ARIMA Model) because of the seasonality and non-linearity of the data. In this paper, the SARIMA-ANN coupled model formed through the traditional ARIMA Model is modified by artificial neural network model (ANN). And seasonal factors and the data and its extension tendency of employee turnover are fitted and predicted by the SARIMA-ANN coupled model. A case study with the data of 93 months in a Chinese matured enterprise is used to validate the coupled model. The best coupling model is finally determined through the construction, measurement, comparison and discussion of multi-group SAARIMA-ANNA models. The results of the case study show that SARIMA-ANN model is feasible to fit and predict economic data of seasonal time series because the model fully deal with the coexistence of the seasonality and tendency, randomness and non-linearity of data. The application of the coupling model verifies the existence of this feature, that is, the data of employee turnover in Chinese enterprises coexist with the tendency and seasonality, linearity and non-linearity. This indicates that the employee turnover in Chinese enterprises has more complicated irregular movement and mutation, and it is the first step to do a good job in retaining existing employees when it is difficult to accurately predict.

Risk Measurement and Hedging Strategy Based on Buffer Probability of Exceedance Model

SUN Xiao-lin, HU Sha-sha, GUO Hai-feng

2021, 30(2):  146-154.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0054

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The risk measure of tail distribution is the key of risk management. This paper presents the probability distribution of different expected losses based on buffed Probability of Exceedance (bPOE), which offers a new insight into risk averse. Then it develops a hedging strategy based on minimum the probability of the heavy tail event and compares it with the strategy based on minimum variance. Furthermore, this paper calculates the set of the expected losses and their corresponding probabilities. The empirical results show that under the heavy tail distribution or normal distribution, the bPOE model reduces the expected loss and risk probability significantly, which offers the stable hedging effectiveness.

Optimal Strategy of Life Insurance Investment and Consumption in Mixed Jump Diffusion Model

YANG Zhao-qiang, TIAN You-gong

2021, 30(2):  155-161.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0055

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In this paper, we consider the stochastic optimal strategy of consumption and investment when the investors invest in life insurance, zero coupon bonds and stock respectively under the mixed jump diffusion model, who have CRRA(constant relative risk aversion)preferences. By constructing the financial market, insurance market and admissible strategy to meet the mixed jump diffusion model, the HJB equation which is associated with the optimal strategy is solved by dynamic programming method. Then the explicit expression of the value function and the explicit expression of the optimal strategy are derived. To illustrate the validity of our model, the simulation of the relative risk aversion coefficient and the numerical analysis of the optimal parameters are also given.

Pricing of Credit Risk Mitigation Tools for Local Government Bonds

HU Wen-xiu, LI Ru-xia

2021, 30(2):  162-167.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0056

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With the expansion of the scale of local government bonds, the credit risk of local government debt is increasingly prominent. This study takes the launch of credit risk mitigation tools for corporate bonds as an opportunity to learn from the idea of structured model and the logic of KMV model to solve the default probability. By the Carlo method we simulate the default process of local government, directly calculate the overall default probability of local government; combined with the idea of simplified model, we calculate the specific default probability of local government bonds, the theoretical price of credit risk mitigation tools, thus construct the mixed pricing model of credit risk mitigation tools of local government bonds. It is found that the theoretical price of the model based on corporate bonds is basically consistent with the market quotation, and the sensitivity test of parameters further verifies the theoretical self consistency and empirical reliability of the model. The above conclusions may provide new ideas for the governance and control of local government debt and the prevention of regional and systemic financial risks in China during the implementation of the new budget law.

Online Portfolio Strategy Based on Order Prediction with Transaction Costs

YANG Xing-yu, LIN Hong, HE Jin-an, ZHANG Yong

2021, 30(2):  168-175.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0057

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During the process of online portfolio decision-making, frequent adjustments of asset positions will cause a lot of transaction costs. This paper proposes an online portfolio strategy by considering both expected return and transactioncosts. We calculate the expected return of the portfolio by predicting the order of assets and measure the transaction costs by using the relative entropy distance, and thus construct an optimization model thatmaximizes the expected return and minimizes the transaction costs, and then obtain an online portfolio update strategy by solving it. Then, we theoretically prove that the strategy has BH-universality, that is, its average exponential growth rate is asymptotically the same as that of the offline optimal Buy and Hold strategy. Finally, we conduct numerical analysis of the proposed strategy on actual stock data from Chinese and American markets. The results show that it achieves a better cumulative wealth than the existing online portfolio strategies and is not sensitive to the parameters of the model.

Research on the Asymmetric Risk Spillover Effect of Financial Market Based on GAS t-Copula Model

ZHAO Ru-bo, TIAN Yi-xiang, TIAN Wei

2021, 30(2):  176-183.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0058

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Accurate measurement of risk spillover effect is an important prerequisite for financial risk management and portfolio construction, while the nonlinear and dynamic dependence structure between financial markets are always a difficult problem in the research of financial risk spillover effect. This paper combines marginal distribution model that can describe important styled facts to measure financial risk spillover effect between financial markets with GAS t-Copula model and CoVaR method, and taking the Chinese mainland and other four stock markets as the research object, we test the accuracy and reliability of risk spillover model. The empirical results show that there is a positive and dynamic correlation between four stock markets including Chinese mainland and the US stock market. With the outbreak of the financial crisis, the correlation between four stock markets and US stock market gradually increases to the maximum. Affected by the risk spillover effect of the US stock market, the received spillover effect of four stock markets presents significant asymmetry. The spillover effect of downside risk is stronger than that of rising risk, and the spillover effect intensity of Chinese mainland stock market is significantly smaller than that of Hong Kong, Japan and UK stock market.

Establishment of Growth Evaluation System for Technology-based SMEs Based on Fuzzy ANP and TOPSIS

TIAN Lin, ZHANG Lu-lu

2021, 30(2):  184-190.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0059

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The development of Unicorn enterprises has become an important factor to measure regional innovation ability. In order to establish a complete Unicorn cultivation mechanism from seed enterprises' selection, incubation, acceleration of development and eventual successful landing, it is urgent to build a comprehensive, objective and scientific growth evaluation model for small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs). Based on this, the study is carried out in three steps. Firstly, 45 relevant factors are identified and classified into 10 main factors. Secondly, the overall priority of these factors is ranked by using fuzzy network analysis(FANP)to determine the key factors affecting growth. Finally, a weighted factor-based fuzzy TOPSIS method is proposed to evaluate small and medium-sized technology-based enterprises. The research shows that external factors are more important to the development and growth of the enterprises under study. The results indicate that policy regulations, technological factors and entrepreneurship characteristics are identified as key factors. This study can not only provide effective guidance for enterprise managers to formulate appropriate development strategies and improve enterprise performance, but also provide valuable reference for the selection and cultivation of technology-based SMEs.

Product Selection Methods Based on Prospect Theory and Online Reviews

LIN Shan-shan, YU Gao-feng

2021, 30(2):  191-195.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0060

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The online reviews for product features or attributes have a significant impact on the product selection of consumer, but the existing methods have not paid attention to the sorting level of products and the bounded rationality of consumers. For this reason, the product selection method based on prospect theory in the online reviews is proposed. Firstly, the product selection problem according to the online reviews is introduced. Next, the grade eigenvalue of prospect synthetical values is computed with the positive and negative ideal points as reference points. Accordingly, the grade for products and selection method is proposed based on 2-tuple linguistic. Finally, the validity and rationality of the proposed method are illustrated by a product selection example.

Structural Vulnerability of Parallel Type Programme Based on Complex Networks

GUO Ning, GUO Peng, LIU Yang

2021, 30(2):  196-201.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0061

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This paper applies complex networks to study the structural vulnerability of parallel type programme. First, it takes tasks as nodes, the relationships among the tasks as edges, the duration of tasks as node weight, and the strength of tasks' dependence as edge weight, thus the parallel type programmeis abstracted as a weighted directed network. Subsequently, a novel vulnerability model is designed to calculate the structural vulnerability of parallel type programme. Then, the proposed approach is applied to a parallel type programme to evaluate the vulnerability and is demonstrated to be effective in assessing the vulnerability and identifying the weaknesses in programme. Overall, the study can assist indeveloping proactive risk approaches to enhance successful megaproject completion.

Research on Pricing Strategy of Delay Compensation Service for Highway Freight Platform

GAN Wei-hua, SU Lei, YAN Wei-an, FU Cheng

2021, 30(2):  202-209.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0062

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Considering the compensation rate from the platform, transportation delay risk from drivers and the attention of timeliness from the consigners, this paper studies two kinds of decisions about two delay compensation pricing strategies, and tries to obtain the optimal equilibrium depending on the reverse solution method. The results show that: (1)When the network externality of the drivers is more than twice that of the consigners, the platform should choose strategy C; conversely, when the delay risk of drivers is lower than a certain threshold and the attention of timeliness from the consigners is higher than a certain threshold, strategy F should be chosen, otherwise, strategy C should be chosen. (2)Platform revenue will increase both for strategy F and C with the reduction of delay risk of drivers and improvement of the attention of timeliness from the consigners, which will not be affected by the compensation rate. (3)If strategy F is selected, the consigners will not be subsidized. When strategy C is selected, if the network externality of the drivers is more than that of the consigners, subsidy will be implemented. if not, only when the drivers's delay risk is lower than a certain threshold value and the attention of timeliness from the consigners is higher than a certain threshold, the subsidy could be implemented. Finally, numerical simulation is used to verify.

Management Science

Specialists or Generalists? Effects of Members' Knowledge Base on Innovation Performance

DONG Jia-min, LIU Ren-jing

2021, 30(2):  210-217.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0063

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Based on the multi-agent simulation method, we construct a dynamic model to explore the effects of members' knowledge base on innovation performance. Considering three dimensions of knowledge base, including knowledge width, knowledge depth, and knowledge overlap, we systematically answer the questions about which kinds of people (generalists or specialists) are more valuable for organizations. The results show that members' knowledge width has a positive effect on innovation performance, while effects of knowledge depth depend on the interaction influences of knowledge width and knowledge overlap. To be specific, when the members' knowledge width is low, knowledge depth has a negative effect. However, when the members' knowledge width is high, knowledge depth has an inverted U-shaped relationship on innovation performance. In addition, when members' knowledge width is medium, the mechanism of knowledge depth depends on whether the superior knowledge of members overlaps. In fact, if members' superior knowledge is evenly distributed, knowledge depth presents a positive effect; but if members' superior knowledge is highly repetitive, the positive effect of knowledge depth is transformed into a negative effect. What's more, we also find that T-type members with both high knowledge width and relatively high knowledge depth are the most beneficial to improving innovation performance. Intriguingly, our findings reveal that an appropriate mix of generalists in the specialists team can maintain the optimal performance in most circumstances.

Research on Drum Buffer Sizing Based on Double Risk-pooling of Multi-project System

ZHANG Jun-guang WAN Dan

2021, 30(2):  218-224.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0064

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In order to improve the efficiency of multi-project buffer management, a drum buffer sizing approach based on double risk-pooling of multi-project system is proposed. The new method analyzes the risk sharing at two management levels from a system perspective. Project buffers are hierarchically managed in terms of the proportion of the critical activities that fall on the two types of critical chain, and the abstracted project buffers are collected from the project level and further collected on the system level. On this basis, the drum buffer is quantitatively determined by considering the risk independence factor and the impact of drum activities on the system effective output. The simulation results show that the proposed method has better performance in multi-project on-time completion, average project buffer consumption, average delay of drum activity on the system critical chain, total multi-project duration and cost, thus improving the risk response capability of the multi-project system.

User Participation in Crowdsourcing from a Bilateral Perspective: Antecedents of Knowledge Acquisition and Their Impact on Innovation Performance

JIANG Xuan, MENG Qing-liang, XU Xin-hui, SUN Nini

2021, 30(2):  225-231.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0065

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Crowdsourcing innovationmodel has been proved to be an effective way to obtain the knowledge resources from the network crowds achieving the innovation goal. From a bilateral perspective, this paper analyzes the essence of crowdsourcing innovation and the key factors that influence crowdsourcing innovation knowledge acquisition, builds the antecedents of knowledge acquisition and its impact mechanism model on innovation performance, and takes the domestic crowdsourcing platform(www.zbj.com)as an example to carry out empirical research. The results show that: knowledge diversity, communication mechanism and incentive mechanism have a significant positive impact on knowledge acquisition; knowledge acquisition has a significant positive impact on crowdsourcing innovation performance; the impacts of knowledge acquisition antecedents on crowdsourcing innovation performance are different. Knowledge diversity has a significant direct positive impact on innovation performance. However, the direct impact of communication mechanism and incentive mechanism on innovation performance of crowdsourcing has not been validated effectively. However, they indirectly influence the crowdsourcing innovative performance through knowledge acquisition.

Overview

Review of Hypernetwork Based on Hypergraph

MA Tao, SUO Qi

2021, 30(2):  232-239.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0066

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Hypernetwork is a natural generalization of normal network. The study of hypernetwork will help us to understand the very important issue, i.e. the complex system has “complexity”. In the real world, the hypernetwork can be used to describe many complex systems. Hypernetwork is divided into network-based supernetwork and hypergraph-based hypernetwork. In this paper, we focus on the hypergraph-based hypernetwork. Firstly, the hypergraph theory is described, and we analyze the hypergraph-based hypernetwork. Then the transformation and examples of hypergraph-based hypernetwork and multilayer supernetwork are presented. The hypernetwork evolving model based on hypergraph is also proposed. At the end of this paper, the application and the future research direction of the hypernetwork are discussed. Among them, the index construction, dynamics and link prediction of the hypernetwork need to be further studied.