Table of Content

25 March 2019, Volume 28 Issue 3

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Evolution of FTA Networks Based on Split of FDI Revenue

CUI Zhi-wei, GAO Li-jun, ZENG Qing-chao

2019, 28(3):  1-6.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0050

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As an extension of Goyal and Joshi, this paper provides a model of bilateral free trade agreement(FTA)network formation where FTA implies unrestricted FDI(foreign direct investment)and the revenue from non-FTA partner countries via FDI is distributed between home country and host country according to a certain proportion. The main results show that the evolution of FTA networks can be divided into two stages. In the first stage, there exists a path from empty FTA network to star FTA network where both individual country social welfare and world social welfare are improving and an asymmetry between individual countries in social welfare exists. In the second stage, there exists an individual country social welfare improving path from star FTA network to complete FTA network while the world social welfare remains the same, in which an asymmetry between individual countries in social welfare comes to be eliminated.

Study of Civil Aviation Industry Chain Based on Two-level Game Model

WANG Bo, XIAO Gang, XIAO Xiao

2019, 28(3):  7-12.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0051

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With the occurrence of oligopoly among manufacturers and suppliers in the civil aviation market, we establish a two-level game theory model to study the problem of competition and decision making between manufacturers and suppliers. In the higher game, the aeroplane manufacturers aim to determine their output and purchase quantity for each engine supplier based on market profit. While in the lower game, engine suppliers determine production by solving an optimization problem. We use the conditions of the lower game to obtain the constraints for the higher game. Then we establish the algorithm for the problem. By simulation using the actual conditions of the market, we can justify the rationality of the model. Therefore, we discuss what impact the production of COMAC C919 will bring to the market as well as the decision making behavior of its pricing.

The Scheduling Optimization of Distribution Vehicles ConsideringUrban Road Network Conditions

LIN Xin, SHAO Qian-qian, YANG Zhen-hua, XU Qi, JIN Zhi-hong

2019, 28(3):  13-23.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0052

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In urban road network, more physical differences should be considered to measure the comprehensive traffic impedance, such as number and width of lanes in each road and crossing light working rule in each intersections. On this basis, this paper gives a scheduling mathematical model with multiple types of vehicles. A two-stage algorithm is put forward to solve the model. At first stage, an improving A-star search algorithm is designed to calculate the exact time passed matrix. At second stage, a hybrid simulated annealing algorithm is designed to find scheduling scheme. Selecting one of Dalian distribution centers as actual case, the experimental results are used to verify performance of algorithm and analyze scheduling scheme changes in different network situations. Analysis result shows improving A-star search algorithm has faster speed than the Dijkstra signature improving algorithm which ever use. The comprehensive cost of scheduling scheme founded by simulated annealing algorithm has an 13.1% reduction than actual operation scheme. Three changes in urban road network conditions such as the increase of road network flow, the congestion of some areas and the ban of some roads passing, can disturb five parts in distribution scheme, which are vehicle configuration plan, route selection plan, customer service sequence, vehicle operation time and default cost from unpunctuality. The numerical result proposes that the changes in urban road network conditions should be considered in details before planning a scheduling scheme.

Strength of Preference on Effective Factors Integratedwith CVaR Portfolio Choice Model

HUANG Dong-bin, ZHOU Dan-dan, WANG Yong

2019, 28(3):  24-30.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0053

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This paper examines the selection of effective factors out of various dimensions of variables that characterize the common stocks of a market, which are then put together to form an additional rationality of maximizing the integrated preference strength(IPS)of effective factors for investment portfolios; in a subsequent manner, an IPS-Mean-CVaR model for multiple-factor portfolio selection is constructed and tested. With 10-year-data analysis of Husheng 300 stocks from 2006 to 2015, here we report three conclusions: (1)the IPS portfolio, constructed with the integrated strength of preference of effective factors outperforms that of every single effective factors; (2)the entropy-TOPSIS technique demonstrates better utility of factors integration than the commonly applied factors scoring technique; and (3)an IPS-Mean-CVaR model outperforms the classical Mean-CVaR model, and expands the capability of data analysis and its applicability for portfolio optimization.

The Optimization of Cruise Shipping Routing and Speed with Emission Control Area

ZHEN Lu, SUN Xiao-fan, WANG Shuai-an

2019, 28(3):  31-38.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0054

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In recent years, the cruise industry has developed rapidly. However, the shipping pollution is increasingly more serious. The International Maritime Organization has proposed Emission Control Area(referred to as ECA)to limit the sulfur emissions. All ships, including cruise, need to switch to more expensive low-sulfur fuel when sailing inside ECA, which makes the shipping plan need to be reorganized. This paper presents a cruise routing and speed optimization model with a limit of arrival time, and optimizes the shipping routing and speed of cruise in and out of ECA to minimize the total fuel cost. We also perform a computational study on a representative cruise line along the northwest Atlantic Ocean to evaluate possible impacts on routing and speed, and prove the validity and practicability of the model.

Logistics Center Location Method Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Tendency Clustering

DUAN Guan-hua, LIN Jian, CUI Chun-sheng

2019, 28(3):  39-44.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0055

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Aiming at the shortcomings of existing intuitionistic fuzzy similarity measure, this paper proposes an intuitionistic fuzzy similarity measure formula with tendency similarity. By constructing similar matrix, equivalent similarity matrix and cutting matrix, a novel intuitionistic fuzzy set clustering method is presented. The application analysis of the location selection of logistics center verifies the rationality and effectiveness of the clustering method.

Research on Demand Information Sharing Strategies inLow Carbon Dual-channel Supply Chain

WEI Guang-ming, REN Li-guo, QIN Juan-juan, MA Ya-ming

2019, 28(3):  45-56.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0056

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Under the demand uncertainty environment, we study the demand information sharing strategy in a dual-channel supply chain considering the consumer’s low carbon awareness. The supply chain consists of a retailer and a manufacturer which opens a direct channel and reduces the carbon emission. And we study it under three different cases: no information sharing case, information sharing case and retailer-only forecast case. Comparing the optimal decisions and the profits under the three cases, we can obtain the effects of the demand information sharing and consumer’s low carbon awareness on the supply chain. We find that the demand information sharing cannot always improve the members’ profits: when the forecast accuracy of the manufacturer is higher than that of the retailer, the retailer will choose information sharing case and the manufacturer will choose no information sharing case; otherwise, the retailer will choose no information sharing case and the manufacturer is willing to choose retailer-only forecast case and take incentives for the retailer to get the forecast information. There are positive relationships between consumer’s low carbon awareness and the wholesale price, the retail prices, the carbon emission reduction of unit product and both members’ profits.

The Effect of Information Sharing and Government Subsidy ina Closed-loop Supply Chain with Technology Licensing——Based on Distributor Remanufacturing

HUANG Yan-ting, WANG Zong-jun

2019, 28(3):  57-66.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0057

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The economic and environmental benefits of remanufacturing have attracted considerable attention in literature and practice. This paper analyzes a closed-loop supply chain where the manufacturer licenses the distributor to remanufacture and the distributor decides whether to share his private demand information with the manufacturer. Moreover, we investigate the impact of information sharing on distributor-remanufacturing and manufacturer-remanufacturing modes, and examine how government subsidy affects collection quantity of used products and chain members’profits. We show that, when the distributor shares information with the manufacturer, the distributor’s profit decreases while the manufacturers profit increases. In the distributor-remanufacturing mode, the manufacturer would share the remanufacturing profits by charging a licensing fee from the distributor. While in the manufacturer-remanufacturing mode, the manufacturer would set an appropriate wholesale price and acquisition price to coordinate the forward and reverseflows, and eventually maximize his own profit. We also show that, the government subsidy results in a positive effect on collection quantity of used products, the licensing fee and chain members’profits. Specifically, when the unit subsidy is large enough, the manufacturer would choose the manufacturer-remanufacturing mode as he can directly obtain government subsidy by collecting and remanufacturing used products. When the unit subsidy is relatively small, the manufacturer prefers the distributor-remanufacturing rather than manufacturer-remanufacturing mode. These results can provide new insights on distributor-remanufacturing mode in a closed-loop supply chain in the presence of information sharing and government subsidy.

Decision and Operational Efficiency Evaluation forProduction-transportation-marketing Supply Chain Alliances Involving TPL

FENG Ying, ZHANG Yan-zhi

2019, 28(3):  67-77.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0058

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This paper assumes that the manufacturer’s wholesale price is an endogenous variable and the market demand of the retailer is affected by the service level of TPL provider. We studies the decision-making behavior and operational efficiency of a production-transportation-marketing system under integrative alliance, decentralized decision, production and transportation alliance, transportation and marketing alliance mode respectively. The mathematical models are developed under these four modes and then the existence and uniqueness of the optimal solutions or game equilibrium solutions are proved. Through the pairwise comparison, we find that the system’s profits under the other three modes are lower than that in the integrative alliance. Moreover, the value size of the optimal ordering quantity, logistics service level and the ratio between them under other three modes depends on some specific conditions. Therefore, the supply chain internal alliance may not be able to improve the system operational efficiency. We further give a numerical example and then do the sensitivity analysis on the retail price and variable logistics service cost. Finally, we find that the system operation efficiency under the transportation and marketing alliance mode is highest among these three decision modes in most cases.

Research on Two Kinds of Different Credit Risk in the Supply chainRelationship and Contagion Mechanism

QIAN Qian, ZHOU Zong-fang

2019, 28(3):  78-86.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0059

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In a typical capital-constrained two echelon supply chain, there are usually two different types of credit risk, one is the credit risk caused by suppliers’ credit loans to banks; the other is the trade credit risk caused by suppliers’ providing trade credit to retailers. In this paper, the relationship between the two types of credit risk are studied, the mechanism of contagion between the two types of risk is revealed, the intensity of contagion is measured, and the influencing factors of the intensity of contagion are analyzed. The results show the correlation between two different types of credit risk leads to the existence of different types of associated credit risk in the supply chain, which is referred to as D-type credit risk in the supply chain. In particular, when the market demand follows the exponential distribution, the intensity of the associated credit risk is associated with the trade credit cost and the retailer’s characteristics. By adjusting the cost of trade credit and choosing the type of retailer, suppliers can reduce the contagion intensity of D-type credit risk, and then reduce their own bank credit risk. This paper extends the relationship and contagion between the same type of credit risk to different types of credit risk, and further deepens and expands the connotation of associated credit risk.

Design of a Sided-sensitive Conforming Run Length Median Chart

HU Xue-long, ZHOU Xiao-jian, HUANG Wei-dong, WU Shu

2019, 28(3):  87-94.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0060

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Considering the outliers in the process samples, the median(X)is used instead of the mean(X)and a side-sensitive conforming run length X(SCRL & X)chart is proposed to monitor the process mean. A Markov chain method is used to study the properties of the chart. The transition probability matrix of SCRL & X chart is first derived and the corresponding average run length(ARL)is obtained according to the properties of the Markov chain method. In order to obtain the optimal parameters and properties of the SCRL & X chart, the out-of-control ARL is minimized under the constraint of the in-control ARL. The simulation results showed that the SCRL & X chart performs better than the conforming run length(CRL)X chart, especially for smaller mean shifts.

Emergency Quantity Flexibility Contract of Multi-factorVolatility under Asymmetric Information

PANG Jin-hui, SHI Wen-qiang, WU Shuang-sheng, LIU Lang

2019, 28(3):  95-103.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0061

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Considering market demand and market price fluctuations due to supply chain disruption and emergencies, we deal with the situations by constructing an emergency quantity flexibility contract under production cost information asymmetry, and then derive the corresponding optimal equilibrium. Meanwhile, we make the comparison between the result with that of information symmetry, exploring the impacts of emergencies and the degree of information sharing on optimal decision of the supply chain. The conclusion shows that, if production cost information is asymmetric, the retailer can design quantity flexibility contracts to reveal the true production cost effectively under emergencies, but cannot achieve the coordination of supply chain. Simultaneously, when the demand reduces with the outburst of emergencies, the behavior of withholding information by the manufacturer can promote the overall efficiency of the supply chain. Finally, numerical experiments are given to verify the results.

A Self-adaptive Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm for Solving U-shapedSequence-dependent Disassembly Line Balancing

WANG Shu-wei, GUO Xiu-ping, LIU Jia

2019, 28(3):  104-110.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0062

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Considering interactions among precedence-free tasks in the disassembly process, a multi-objective U-shaped SDDLBP is presented, and a self-adaptive ABC algorithm is developed to solve it. In order to enhance the capability of local exploration, a dynamic neighborhood search method is proposed. A multi-stage evaluation method of roulette wheel selection and tournament selection is used to effectively choose food sources for further exploration. The mutation operator based on the current best solution is designed to improve the global exploitation and jump out of the local optimum rapidly. Finally, the performance of the proposed algorithm is tested by a set of benchmark instances and two case scenarios. Computational results indicate that the proposed algorithm has superior performance.

Group Evaluation Model Based on Online Informationand Its Solution Method of Poset

YUE li-zhu, LI liang-qiong

2019, 28(3):  111-117.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0063

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It clearly defines the online group evaluation model on the basis of relevant research. The model evaluates the online evaluation information with a vector evaluation matrix, and converts the amount of data into the way of easy-to-calculate. In order to solve the problem that the vector is difficult to be assembled and the attribute weights is difficult to be determined, It gives the order of schemes by using the poset knowledge. With the information of weights order, it uses the poset decision method to transform the vector evaluation matrix, and gets the comparison relation matrix between the schemes. The online evaluation model is represented by the poset can not only be able to sort the scheme, but also can recommend the personalized product, visualizing the hierarchical relationship between the programs with the Hasse diagram. Finally, it reflects the unique and practical method of this article through the example of automotive products online evaluation information based on car home website.

Application Research

Study on Financial Institutions’ Systemic Risk Contribution Fromthe Perspective of Tail Risk Networks

HUANG Wei-qiang, GUO Hui-min, YAO Shuang

2019, 28(3):  118-126.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0064

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The tail risk network of financial institutions including its correlation mode and structures plays an important role in the formation and evolution of financial systemic risk. This paper measures the tail risk contagion among financial institutions by using CoVaR(conditional value-at-risk)and quantile regression method, and then constructs dynamic tail risk networks of financial institutions. We analyze the topology structures and their evolution rules of fully connected and filtered tail risk networks. At last, we investigate the effects of network topology structures on the financial institutions' systemic risk contribution. The empirical study show that the node strength can well demonstrate the tail risk contagion and tolerance strength and their dynamic evolution of different institutions. The ranks of tail risk contagion and tolerance strength are different from each other for different institutions. As time evolves, the average tail risk contagion paths shorten and the systemic risk tend to be accumulated faster. On one hand, the lag one node out degree, lag one node in degree and lag one node clustering coefficient have significantly negative effects on the systemic risk contribution of institutions. On the other hand, the lag one node betweenness and node closeness centrality have significantly positive effects on the systemic risk contribution of institutions. The results provide a completely new perspective of tail risk networks for the macroprudential regulation of financial institutions and systemic risk management.

The Estimation of Deposit Insurance Premium underDifferent Systemic Risk Expectation

LV Xiao-ning

2019, 28(3):  127-138.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0065

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The risk factor that affects the value of bank assets is decomposed into systematic risk factor and bank idiosyncratic risk factor, so as to estimate the deposit insurance premium under different systemic risk expectations. Thereby the premium obtained reflect changes of the banks’ assets risk along with the economy fluctuation. By simulating certain circumstances, the deposit insurance premium that considering specific systemic risk across nine years(2008~2016)of 16 listed banks in China are obtained. And a comparison of the corresponding premium with the traditional Merton premium is made under extreme pressures. The basic results show that the sensitivities of the positively correlated relationship between the deposit insurance premium and the systematic risk are different among different banks as well as different years. The extreme tails of the systematic risk distribution affect deposit insurance premium asymmetrically, meaning that the high risk tail makes more contribution to the average premium than the low risk tail. Meanwhile, the premium estimated by particular systematic risk fit economic situations more than the Merton premium. Hence, this kind of premium may strengthen the pressure resist ability of the deposit insurance fund especially when the system is at the starting stage.

A Dynamic Evaluation Method and Application on Better Action Conformingto Natural Rules Considering Twice Identification of Advantage

YANG Kai, ZHAO Xi-nan, ZHOU Yan

2019, 28(3):  139-147.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0066

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In this research, a dynamic evaluation method on better action conforming to natural rules considering twice identification of advantage is proposed to solve the individual advantage weight and laying more stress on the present information on the past problem in dynamic comprehensive evaluation. In this method, firstly, the weights of evaluated objects are calculated using the individual advantage identifying method from the theory of better action conforming to natural rules. Then, according to the identified results, the competitive advantage evaluation is set and the average information for each outcome is to make democratic advantage consequence. Furthermore, the democratic advantage result of the evaluated objects is calculated the second time by the method of individual identification, which outputs the dynamic individual weights of the evaluated objects. Moreover, the optimal bottom-up approach of dynamic competitive advantage evaluation and from top to bottom dynamic democratic advantage assessment are determined by establishing and solving the evaluation model. Finally, an example of the real situation is used to justify the proposed method for effectiveness and superiority.

A Combinational Evaluation Method Based on Gini Criterion

FAN De-cheng, SONG Zhi-long

2019, 28(3):  148-157.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0067

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A combinational evaluation method based on Gini criterion is proposed in order to get rid of the inconsistency among evaluation results from different evaluation methods. According to the information purity of the results of each evaluation method, the method gives the corresponding weight of each evaluation method. The greater the purity of the information, the greater the correspondingly imparting weights, and then we give the weights combination evaluation. The operability and relative effectiveness of this evaluation method are verified by the evaluation of the high tech industry technological innovation capability. The method proposed in this study gives an idea in dealing with the inconsistency among dynamic evaluation results, helpfully complements the comprehensive evaluation method.

Analysis of the Influencing Factors of the Bidding for Aerospace CommercialLaunching Service Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map

LIN Song, LIU Xiao-di, ZHU Jian-jun, ZHANG Shi-tao, RAO Cheng-long, YU Liang

2019, 28(3):  158-165.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0068

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The influencing factors of the bidding for aerospace commercial launching service market are interrelated. According to the characteristics of the bidding for aerospace commercial market and the division principle of influencing factors, we divide the factors into macro environment, cost, market demand, competitive demand and brand factors. Fuzzy cognitive map is used to analyze the influencing factors. The correlation between each influencing factor and the bidding is calculated by the grey correlation and then can be used to judge the importance of the factors. Aerospace enterprises can use it to make decisions.

Assessment on Black-start Schemes Based on Combined Weight and VIKOR

LENG Ya-jun, SHI Hao

2019, 28(3):  166-172.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0069

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Black-start is one of the solutions for power system security and quickly recovery after an accident. Assessment on black-start schemes is an important part of decision making in black-start. In this article, minimum cross-entropy is applied to aggregate the weight for resolving the assessment on black-start schemes. Flexible entropy model is firstly adopted which addresses the issues that differences between weights of indexes are significant, no changes in weights when assessment matrix changes slightly to get the weights according to the difference of objective data information of each index. Utility function of decision makers is also tried to be used to transform the objective value matrix into the judgment matrix, which is based on the subjective preference of decision makers and combines with the Kullback-Leibler distance model to obtain the weights of preference. Then on the basis of minimum cross-entropy, the weights under the flexible entropy model and the other on account of the decision makers’ subjective preference are integrated, the combined weights of indexes can be acquired. Finally, relationships between black-start schemes are analyzed by using VIKOR method, and the optimal black-start schemes are selected. Experiments are carried out on the data of black-start path of Tianjin power grid, the results show that the proposed approach is effective.

Safety Efficiency of Strait/Canal on the Maritime Silk Road

GONG Xiao-xing, LV Jing, LI Hui

2019, 28(3):  173-182.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0070

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Straits/Canals are the important nodes on the maritime Silk Road, and the safety of them has a significant impact on daily operation of the maritime Silk Road, so it is necessary to investigate the safety of straits/canals. In this paper, a full-ranking slack-based measure(SBM)model with undesirable outputs is proposed, which could reveal the full ranking of safety efficiency of straits/ canals. If one indicator has no effect on the safety efficiencies of straits/canals, the indicator should be eliminated, by which this paper makes a screening on the indicators system. The key influencing factors of safety efficiency of different straits/ canals are determined by measuring the impact on efficiency of decision making units for individual index. The empirical results show that the Malacca Strait is highly efficient, while the Mandeb Strait is low efficient. The other four straits/canals are medium-ranked and have little difference. Piracy and ship accidents are important factors affecting safety efficiencies of straits/canals.

Management Science

The design of online leasing strategy based on the preferential contract

XU Wei-jun, DONG Peng-cui, PENG Zi-jin

2019, 28(3):  183-190.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0071

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The competition is becoming increasingly fierce among the financial leasing industries, so the lessee may provide some preferential policies in order to attract customers. This paper presents an online leasing issue based on the preferential contract that provided a discount for the lessee of continuous rental. First of all, we introduce the theory model of competitive ratio to obtain the optimal off-line strategy. Secondly, the deterministic strategy is designed by using the online algorithm and the theory of competitive analysis in the cases of the lessee giving up the preferential contract and signing the preferential contract, in order to achieve the optimal on-line strategy and its competitive ratio. Finally, as demonstrated by numerical examples, we prove that a car preferential contract is a better strategy, and further, deduces the best time to sign the preferential contract and the best time to purchase the equipment.

Research on Synergetic Evolvement of E-commerce Industry andBig Data Industry Considering Internal and External Factors

GUO Hao-yue, FAN Chong-jun, LI Jun-chang, WANG Lai, WU Hai-chun, YANG Yun-peng

2019, 28(3):  191-199.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0072

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In the construction of new economic system, the synergy and integration between the e-commerce industry and the big data industry have become an inevitable trend. Considering the background of synergetics relationship and cross-business, the paper constructs the E-commerce-Big Data System(EBDS)co-evolution model based on the traditional Haken in the view of system. In particular, we discuss the applicable conditions of adiabatic elimination synthetically. Thereafter, for the two subsystems, the order parameters’ weights are determined using the entropy weight method, and their degree and synergy also are quantized. Then, we verify the reliability of co-evolution model constructed with numerical simulation, and we conclude that there are two stable points in EBDS. However, the system is still in mutual assistance stage in coordination with a low degree of synergy. Finally, five effective and reliable suggestions are proposed to improve subsystems’ synergy level from synergetics application, industrial chain, risk, external environment and ecosystem.