Table of Content

25 April 2020, Volume 29 Issue 4

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Government'sEmergency Supplies Procurement Pricing Model Considering Emergency'sState Transition

LIU Yang, TIAN Jun, FENG Gong-zhong, HU Zhong-quan

2020, 29(4):  1-11.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0084

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The demand for emergency supplies after a sudden emergency strikes is growing at an explosive rate. In generally, the government first transfers regular supplies to disaster areas, and then makes decisions on relief supplies procurement according to the phased results. Because the state of the sudden disaster is always shifting, the purchased emergency supplies will result in waste if the emergency state gets better. The government can't meet the demand for emergency supplies if the emergency state continues to deteriorate. It is of great importance to take the state transition of emergencies into the government's procurement pricing strategies for emergency supplies. Therefore, this article applies quantity flexible contract (QFC) to the two-stage supply chain with a supplier and a single government. The procurement pricing model of the government's emergency supplies is established based on QFC considering the state transition of emergencies. We uncover the condition that the government and the supplier reach cooperation. The optimal decisions of the government's procurement pricing and the supplier's reserved quantity are derived.The supplier's profit and the government's cost under QFC and non-cooperation are compared. Furthermore, numerical calculation and sensitivity analysis are used to analyze the influence of several exogenous variables on the decision strategies of the government and the supplier and each participant's revenue (cost). Several important managerial implications are attained. The proposed model based on QFC and state transition could not only improve the level of the total reserved quantity of emergency supplies, but also safeguard the supplier's profit and control the government's cost.

A Study on Pre-warning Mechanism of Cruise Disaster Accidents Based on Stochastic Petri Net Theory

Li Ming-kun, Jiang Xin-ying

2020, 29(4):  12-20.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0085

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In this study, we focus on mechanisms to reduce cruise accidents which often lead to severe loss. We analyze accidents of cruises with a multiple set structure. We consider weather and water conditions, and formulate the problem into stochastic Petri nets. A real case of disasters on the Oriental Star cruise is studied. The simulation results indicate some critical factors, i.e. the growth rate of wind and rain, as well as hurricanes and rainstorms which have an impact on the safety of navigating a cruise. A non-linear interaction relation among these factors is reported for pre-warning disasters of cruises.

Study on Optimization of Multi-period Ambulances Location Based on cost-effective analysis

JIANG Qing-chen, SU Qiang, ZHU Yan-hong, WNAG Qiu-gen

2020, 29(4):  21-29.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0086

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There is a trade-off between emergency medical service level and resources. This paper takes emergency effect and cost into consideration,apply delay cost to describe emergency effect, and apply operational cost to describe emergency resources. At the same time, time-dependent demand, travel time and ambulance unavailability rate are taken into consideration. We establish an optimal model of multi-period ambulance location problem to minimize total social cost. Based on data from Songjiang district of Shanghai, the optimization results show that the total social cost of the optimized system is 32.23% lower than the original system under the high standard coverage of 80%. Compared with the static situation, the total cost decreases by 15.8%, the double coverage rate increases by 12.84%, and the variance of the vehicle's busy fraction in each periods decreases by 91.67%.

Study of the Layout Optimization of MSW Transfer Station in Satellite Towns Considering Recycling-compensation Constraints

LI Hai-jun, ZHANG Yao-wen, YANG Yue-qiao

2020, 29(4):  30-35.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0087

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Aiming at solving the location optimization problem of MSW transfer station in satellite towns, this paper puts forward the decoupled layout optimization model and method based on refinement analysis about economical,social and environmental site selection affecting factors of MSW transfer station. This thesis determines backup transfer station sets covering all the requirements by improved LSCP model considering corresponding code required distance. Furthermore, it calculates and determines the the position and capacity of ultimate WSW transfer station and collection depot sets by using integer programming model considered construction and operation cost, negative effect, and recovery effect comprehensively. Finally, the efficiency and rationality of the method are validated by the case analysis in this study.

Research on the Mode of Hub and Spoke Network Used in City Express

LI Wen-li, LI Kun-peng, RUAN Wen-yi

2020, 29(4):  36-42.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0088

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With the densification of courier dot density, the structure of network is directly related to the courier company's operating cost and service level. Focusing on the market of the city express, we change the affiliation of outlets without changing the site size of the existing outlets, combine the hub and spoke network structure to enhance its express delivery time and optimize its cost and resource investment. A hub location model with branch constraint is developed with the objective of minimizing transportation costs. And an efficient tabu search algorithm is designed to solve the problem. Finally, the corresponding solution is conducive to integrating resources and the formation of economies of scale, and the division management basis is given to avoid the confusion of management and operation due to the complex network structure. In the long run, this will help save operating costs, increase the flexibility of its delivery network, and reduce the difficulty of operational management.

Selection Strategies of Recycling Channels in Closed-Loop Supply Chain Under Government Subsidy

LIN Gui-hua, SHAN Ren-bang, CHEN Pin-bo

2020, 29(4):  43-53.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0089

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In this paper, we consider a closed-loop supply chain system composed of a single manufacturer, a single retailer, and a single third party. We mainly discuss the selection strategies of recycling channels and analyze the impact of government subsidies on choices of recycling strategies for different decision makers. We establish some decision models for different recycling agents and give a theoretical analysis of optimal decisions for centralized decision making and decentralized decision making strategies. The numerical experiments demonstrate the following theoretical results: In different ranges of government subsidies, the decision makers(such as government, consumer, policy makers and so on)may choose different recycling channels. That is, if the government expends less subsidies, the decision makers are inclined to choose retailer recycling and conversely, they prefer to choose the third party recycling with more subsidies.

Quality Investment and Pricing Strategies of App Developers

ZHANG Cui-hua, XU Zhan-feng

2020, 29(4):  54-61.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0090

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In this paper, the App developers' quality investment and pricing decision models are built in a two-layer App supply chain which consists of one download platform and two mobile application developers with price competition and quality competition. This paper gives four different scenarios: developers none-cooperating scenario, developers cooperating scenario, chain cooperating scenario and mixed competition scenario. Firstly, the equilibrium strategies of four scenarios are analyzed by solving the profit function. Then, the influences of price competition degree and quality competition degree on equilibrium strategies are compared and analyzed. This paper shows that the optimal quality investment and the optimal App price of high ability developer are higher than those of low ability developer. Second, the influences of price competition and quality competition on none-cooperation scenarios are much more significant than cooperation scenarios. Besides, the total profit of App supply chain is related to the way of cooperation, and the total profit of App supply chain in the scenario of chain cooperating are the highest.

Internal and External Financing Strategies of Contract-Farming Supply Chain under Capital Constraint

SHI Li-gang, PENG Hong-jun, CONG Jing

2020, 29(4):  62-69.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0091

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Considering a contract-farming supply chain with a farmer and a company, the farmer faces capital constraint and yield uncertainty. We study the bank's loan financing and the advance payment with price discounts, the farmer's production decisions and the company's wholesale price decision, and then explore the comparison and selection of the internal and external financing methods in the supply chain. The result shows that the yield uncertainty leads the farmer to reduce the planting scale and the company to lower the wholesale price of agricultural products, which is not conducive to increasing income of the farmer and company. Due to the weak position of farmers, compared with bank loan financing, advance payment financing cannot achieve Pareto improvement between the farmer and the company.

Rubinstein Bargaining with Loss Aversion and a Risk of Breakdown

FENG Zhong-wei, TAN Chun-qiao

2020, 29(4):  70-77.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0092

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Rubinstein bargaining is reconsidered under the assumption that players are loss averse and bargaining has a risk of breakdown. First, a subgame perfect equilibrium is constructed. We show the existence and uniqueness of this subgame perfect equilibrium. Then, the analysis of the subgame perfect equilibrium with respect to loss aversion coefficients and probability of breakdown is performed. It is found that players benefit from their opponents' loss aversion and are hurt by their own loss aversion. It is also found that the changes of equilibrium outcomes as the probability of breakdown depend on discount factor and loss-aversion coefficient of players. It is further found that the limit equilibrium partition for the probability of breakdown tending to zero is identical to the classical Rubinstein case. Finally, a relation with asymmetric Nash bargaining is established, where a player's bargaining power is negatively related to his own levels of loss aversion and positively to the opponent's levels of loss aversion, and depends on the ratio between the probability of breakdown and time lapse between proposals.

Analysis of Multi-party Game of Industrial Innovation Platform under Information Asymmetry Environment

CAO Yu-hong, YOU Jian-xin

2020, 29(4):  78-85.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0093

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This paper studies the collaborative cooperation strategy of the industrial innovation platform under the multi-agent model. China's industrial innovation platform has a relatively short development time, and the resource sharing and service capabilities of some platform systems are in a weak position, but cooperation among multiple parties can effectively improve the technological innovation level of platform. Therefore, the inter-subject game will affect the quality and operating efficiency of the platform system. Based on this, this paper constructs a static game model for the main tripartite entities of “enterprises-research institutions-government management departments” under the asymmetric environment of information. The study starts from the interest realization mechanism and strengthens all parties rationality to break the predicament of the industrial innovation platform's low operation efficiency. The research shows that whether companies, research institutions, and government agencies strictly follow the behavior of contract governance norms mainly depends on their respective resource sharing efforts, resource sharing costs, and the benefits of resource sharing.

The Evolutionary Game Analysis of Cooperative Governance Air Pollution Models Between the Local Government Considering Pollution Industries Transferred

HE Qi-long, LI Qin-ying, LI Jing

2020, 29(4):  86-92.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0094

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Air pollution has significant cross-regional characteristics, and cooperation between local governments is the only way to control air pollution. Under the situation of cooperation, a social dilemma arises , which is free-riding in controlling air pollution. The game of air pollution treatment between local governments is long-term and dynamic, and the evolutionary game model of multi-player two strategy is established. The evolutionary stable strategy of local governments without restriction mechanism and under restriction mechanism and the related influencing factors are studied respectively. Considering the pollution industries transferred between governments, this paper establishes the evolutionary game model considering pollution compensation mechanism that government shall compensate for the receiving party for the transfer of polluting industries ,and studies the condition of optimal compensation-governance strategy turning into evolutionary stable equilibrium under unconstrained and constrained mechanism, separately. The researches show that cooperative governance strategy will not be affected by the externality between local governments. The cooperative governance strategy will be significantly affected by the cost of implementing regulation, the emission reduction during implemented regulation and the emission increase during unimplemented regulation, the rewards of central government to implemented regulation government and the punishment of central government to unimplemented regulation government. It can effectively promote the evolution of local government strategies to participate in cooperative governance by increasing the weight coefficient of environmental quality index in achievement assessment system. The optimal compensation-governance strategy can't arrive at ESS under local government independent choice. Under the supervision of central government, the optimal compensation-governance strategy can arrive at ESS when economic punishment is within a certain range.

Dynamic Evolutionary Game of Credit Mechanism among Core Populations in E-commerce Ecosystem

ZHANG Li, WANG Xiang-xiangi, LI Jia-xin

2020, 29(4):  93-101.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0095

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Shopping online is very convenient,but there are still many problems such as counterfeit goods, credibility crisis, and lack of norms in the e-commerce ecosystem. For example, The listing of the Pingduoduo has been controversial. Products as such “Leibi, Kang Shuaifu, Yueli Yue, and Maibo” Still exist in the e-commerce. Credit is very important for e-commerce, and the credit supervision responsibility of e-commerce platform can not be ignored. Therefore, based on the game theory, consumer complaints are introduced into the credit supervision mechanism of the e-commerce platform, and a long-term strategic evolution game model is constructed under the asymmetric information. The influencing factors of game strategy selection and behavior evolution under the dual supervision of active supervision of e-commerce platform and consumer complaint as well as the conditions of the stable state are analyzed, and evolution simulation analysis and numerical simulation are carried out. The research shows that the scale of merchants choosing the “integrity” strategy is closely related to the regulatory probability of the e-commerce platform and the population size of the consumer's “complaint” strategy. The establishment of merchant credit reward and punishment mechanism, credit guarantee mechanism, consumer complaint feedback mechanism, and strict crackdown on private subsidies of merchants, reducing the cost of participation of consumers and the public, which can lead to business integrity management.

Impact of Reducing Demand Variability on Sales Effort Decision of Inventory System under Mean-CVaR Constraint

YU Hai-Bo, NA Na, LI Yuan, TANG Zhong-Jun

2020, 29(4):  102-112.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0096

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In this paper, we use the transformation proposed by Levyto study the impact of reducing demand variability on inventory decision, sales effort decision and expected utility of risk appetite retailer. We also use the mean-CVaR criterion to characterize the retailer's risk preference, including risk aversion and risk pursuit, and it has the property of loss-aversion as well. Firstly, we use LMPT to quantitatively describe the reduction of demand variability, and prove that LMPT contains the cut criterion ordering and the second order stochastic domination in the classical stochastic dominance. Secondly, we give the optimal order quantity, the optimal expected utility and the optimal sales effort of the system, and then we get the monotonicity about the risk preference coefficient, and give the influence of reducing the demand variability on the expected utility. Thirdly, corresponding results are obtained for the three special cases : risk neutrality, risk aversion (maximum CVaR) and risk pursuit (minimum CVaR) and we give the management insights of enterprise in inventory decision and sales promotion decision. Finally, the numerical examples are used to verify the research results and give corresponding management insights.

Dynamic Optimization of Cooperation on Carbon Emission Reduction and Low-carbon Propaganda in Supply Chain under Premium and Penalty of Government

WANG Dao-ping, WANG Ting-ting

2020, 29(4):  113-120.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0097

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In order to reduce the adverse impact of carbon emissions on the environment during production, the premium and penalty of government on the manufacturer is taken into account. In this context, aimed at solving the problem of long-term cooperation on carbon emission reduction and low-carbon propaganda in a supply chain, the differential game model is constructed. It is considered that products' demand is influenced by both carbon emissions and retailers' low-carbon propaganda efforts. This paper obtains and analyzes the manufacturer's and retailer's feedback equilibrium strategies, and optimal trajectories of products' carbon emissions in the decentralized and centralized decision-making. It is found that the optimal trajectories of products' carbon emissions have a variety of convergence and divergence, and the win-win of the supply chain's profit and environmental performance can be achieved in the centralized decision-making. In addition, the impact of premium and penalty strength of government on the products' carbon emissions is analyzed. At last, the model is analyzed by the numerical simulation, which provides a theoretical reference for the low-carbon management of supply chain and the formulation of the premium and penalty policy of government.

Ordering and Coordination in a Dual-Channel Supply Chain under the Difference of Due Date

XU Fei, WANG Hong-lei

2020, 29(4):  121-129.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0098

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Customers often have different demands for delivery times, which can exacerbate the channel conflict between online and offline. However, this also provides the foundation for cooperation. To cope with this problem, a dual-channel supply chain system consisting of a manufacturer online channel and an offline retailer is investigated. Game theory and coordination theory are adopted in order to analyze the ordering and cooperation policy of two retailers. Therefore, a profit model for cooperative online and offline retailers with the difference of the due date is established respectively. Based on this, the existence and uniqueness of the ordering Nash equilibrium of online and offline retailers are proved by the fixed point theorem, and a two-part coordination mechanism to achieve a win-win for the manufacturer and retailer is designed. The result indicates that the order quantity of two retailers has a strategic substitution relationship as a result of the existence of ordering Nash equilibrium. In addition, we prove that the system of offline retailers and manufacturers cannot be coordinated only with the contract of wholesale prices and service fee. Furthermore, a two-part coordination mechanism is improved to achieve a win-win for both manufacturers and retailers which provides a powerful theoretical basis for the coordination and cooperation of the firm.

Optimization of Berth and Quay Crane Collaborative Scheduling Considering Both the Cost and Time Guarantee Rate

SONG Yun-ting, WANG Nuo, WU Nuan

2020, 29(4):  130-137.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0099

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According to the special operation law of container liner ships arriving and leaving the port as schedules and the demand of the port enterprises pursues for the lower operating cost, the paper establishes a multi-objective optimization model of berth and quay crane collaborative scheduling problem. The two objectives are maximizing the assurance rate of finishing the handling operation on time and minimizing terminal operation cost. The overlap local searching algorithm is designed to solve the collaborative scheduling problem between quay cranes. And the algorithm is embedded to the non-dominated sorted genetic algorithm-II. After cross feedback operation, the paper gets the Pareto sets of berth and quay crane collaborative scheduling. According to the optimizing idea, the paper evaluates the Pareto non-inferior solutions between the benefits of the port enterprises and shipping companies based on the “cost performance” concept and calculation method. At last, the real case of Dalian port is conducted to verify the rationality of the proposed optimization strategy and effectiveness of analysis method.

Decision on Single-Period Optimal Order Quantity by Using Copula-CVaR Based on Stochastic Cost and Price

ZHOU Sai-yu, WANG Chang-jun, SHAO Li

2020, 29(4):  138-146.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0100

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The decision of single-period optimal order quantity under uncertain environment is a very important issue which has been widely applied. Different from the traditional newsvendor model concerning uncertain demand merely, a newsvendor decision-making problem under given price and stochastic and correlative demand and cost is investigated in this paper. Therefore, a corresponding Copula-CVaR model is proposed, and then, the existence and uniqueness of the solution are proved. Moreover, by discretization, a tractable linear programming model is developed. Finally, the experiment simulation is conducted to analyse the relation between optimal decisions with correlation and violation of uncertain cost and demand under different Copulafunctions and different risk attitudes. Several results are obtained which can provide the guidance for the enterprises.

Research on Consistency Modification Method for AHP Decision Making based on Basic Loops Analysis

XIE Jiang, WU Shi-hui

2020, 29(4):  147-157.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0101

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In order to solve the consistency problem of AHP, an adjustment method based on basic loops analysis is proposed, which can solve the logical inconsistency and numerical inconsistency at the same time while preserving most of the original comparison information. Both logical inconsistency and numerical inconsistency are caused by the decision-maker's(DM's)inaccurate judgment, in which the numerical inconsistency can be improved by reducing the consistent ratio (CR) of the pairwise comparison matrix (PCM), while logical inconsistency can only be solved by eliminating all the three way loops from the PCM. Therefore, by breaking down the n order PCM into three order basic matrices, among which the basic matrices with three-way cycle are called basic loops, so that the problem is equally transformed into consistency improvement problem of basic loops. By comparing the consistency of the basic loops, two methods, namely maximum CR sum method and optimization method, are proposed to determine the most inconsistent element (MIE), and an optimization model is designed to modify the MIE. Finally, the feasibility of our method is verified by several examples, and the comparison with existing methods shows that this method is more effective.

Research on the Consistency and Consensus of Group AHP with Weighted Power Mean Complex Judgement Matrix

ZHOU Jin-ming, SU Wei-hua, ZHU Xiao-lin

2020, 29(4):  158-164.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0102

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In the view of the complex judgment matrix effects with the degree of power mean, the influence degree of the degree to consistency ratio is studied. The order of the matrix on the consistency ratio is also developed. From the perspective of group expert weight, the sensitivity of weight to the consistency ratio of complex judgment matrix is proposed. The examples show that: (1)the power mean will affect the consistency of the complex judgment matrix, and the consistency ratio is concave function of the power average number. (2)the higher the order number of the judgment matrix, the more difficult it is to judge the matrix; but the higher the order number of the judgment matrix, the consistency ratio will decrease. (3)the influence of experts on the consistency ratio is little, that is, the sensitivity of the expert weight is low, and the satisfaction consistency of the compound judgment matrix will not be affected by the perturbation of the given weights.

A two-stage Newsvendor Model with Random Ordering Time

MIN Jie, LI Yao, LIU Bin, OU Jian

2020, 29(4):  165-170.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0103

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When selling products, the retailer often considers secondary orders to reduce risks and increase profits. However, in practice, due to uncontrollable factors such as insufficient supply capacity of the manufacturer, the retailer is often unable to determine when the second order can be made. In view of this phenomenon, a two-stage newsvendor model with random second ordering time is studied. This paper assumes that the random ordering time and demand rate are subject to uniform distribution, and establishes a newsvendor model considering the second order, and gives an analytical solution of the optimal order quantity in two stages, which makes the expected profit of the retailer reach the maximum in the whole sales cycle. Through a specific example, the secondary order model with random ordering time is compared with the traditional one-time newsvendor model. The numerical results find that throughout the sales period the second order can improve the retailer's expected profit.

F-cluMA: a Collaborative Filtering Model Based on Clustered Matrix Approximation

ZHANG Wen, CUI Yang-bo, LI Jian, CHEN Jin-dong

2020, 29(4):  171-178.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0104

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It is extremely hard for the existing collaborative filtering algorithms to handle the problems of data sparsity and computation scalability in a recommendation system. This paper proposes a novel approach called CF-cluMA (Collaborative Filtering based on clustered Matrix Approximation) for collaborative filtering with the goal to tackle the problems. The CF-cluMA approach comprises two components. The first component is to partition the global user-item rating matrix into local dense block matrices by co-clustering its rows (users) and columns (items). The second one is to approximate the global user-item rating matrix by singular value decomposition (SVD) on the local dense blocks with Schimidt orthogonalization. The experiments on the EachMovie dataset demonstrate that the proposed CF-cluMA approach outperforms state-of-the-art collaborative filtering methods in terms of recommendation accuracy and computation complexity. This research has great managerial implications for recommendation systems in E-commerce.

Measure and Conquer Algorithm for Exact Cover Problem

HU Qin, NING Ai-bing, GOU Hai-wen, ZHANG Hui-zhen

2020, 29(4):  179-186.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0105

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Exact cover problem is one of the classical NP-Hard problems in combinatorial optimization, which is widely applied in many fields. Firstly, the mathematical properties of the exact cover problem are studied in this paper, and the corresponding branch and reduction rules are proposed according to the mathematical properties to reduce the scale of the problem. Secondly, a backtracking algorithm based on branch and reduction is designed to solve the problem. Then, the time complexity of the precise algorithm is O(1.4656^k)through conventional technical analysis. Finally, the measure and conquer technique is applied to the time complexity of the algorithm. The time complexity of the algorithm is reduced to O(1.3842^k). Finally, an example is given to further illustrate the principle of the algorithm and the algorithm is compared with other precise algorithm. The research results demonstrate that the algorithm is feasible and effective.

Application Research

Pricing in a Channel Structure with Multiple Competitive Manufacturers and a Common Retailer under Online Reviews

CAI Xue-yuan, LI Jian-bin, DAI Bin, LI Yun

2020, 29(4):  187-194.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0106

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Online reviews acting as a carrier of information dissemination receive more and more attention from e-tailer and consumers, which significantly affects consumers' purchase behavior. In a channel structure with an e-retailer selling multiple substitutable products from competitive manufacturers, the paper studies how online reviews affect consumers' purchase decisions and pricing strategies of the manufacturers and e-retailer. Through modelling customer choice with online reviews based on neo-Hoteling model and solving Stackelberg game consisting of the manufacturers and e-retailer, we quantitatively analyze effects of online reviews on game players' optimal pricing strategies. When manufacturers optimize their profits relying on online reviews, the intensity of market competition doesn't change while reviews determine each product's potential market size. And each product's equilibrium wholesale price and sales price increase or decrease in proportion to the difference value (positive or negative) between the product's quality and mean value of other products' quality revealed by reviews, and favorable reviews always benefit manufactures. Meanwhile, reviews increase the asymmetry of different products' demand, thus the retailer has more space to adjust the selling prices, through increasing (decreasing) prices of products with favorable reviews (unfavorable reviews) to earn higher profit.

Pricing Strategy and Coordination Mechanism of Power Battery Recycling under the Dual Risks from Demand and Quality

LU Chao, ZHAO Meng-yuan, TAO Jie, LIU Chen-guang, YU Jiang

2020, 29(4):  195-203.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0107

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A reasonable pricing strategy and an effective coordination mechanism play important roles in the recycling and utilization of power batteries. By taking both demand risk (from the market side) and quality risk (from the recycle channel) during power battery's recycling and utilization into consideration, this paper constructs a two-stage reverse supply chain decentralized and centralized pricing model, and finds that the optimal recycling price under decentralized decision is always lower than that under centralized decision, and there is a double marginalization phenomenon in the reverse supply chain. Further, a risk sharing contract based complete compensation contract is proposed to coordinate the supply chain, which could help supply chain members to realize Pareto improvement. In addition, some suggestions are proposed through a concrete example analysis.

Health Status Evaluation of Aero-engines Based on Combination Weighting Method and Unascertained Measure Model

HAN Ya-juan, YANG Yu-qi

2020, 29(4):  204-211.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0108

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An evaluation method based on the combination weighting method by approaching ideal points and unascertained measure model is proposed to evaluate the health status of aero-engines. First, three kinds of weights are respectively calculated by G1 method, Criteria Importance Though Intercrieria Correlation (CRITIC) method and indicator difficulty ratio weighting method. Under the condition that combined weights of indicators should be consistent with the importance of themselves, a programming model is presented to minimize the sum of distances from normal samples to the positive ideal point and abnormal samples to the negative ideal point. Thus, combined weights which could increase the difference between normal and abnormal samples are gotten by the programming model. Then, in order to increase the difference further, every indicator is divided into two opposite classes by K-means algorithm, and each class consists of two small complementary classes in the unascertained measure model. After that, unascertained measures that each indicator belongs to four small classes are calculated separately by the measure function. According to unascertained measures and combined weights, comprehensive measures of samples are obtained. As a result, the health scores of samples are determined by comprehensive measures and the score rule. Finally, the validity of the proposed method is verified by a case study of some military aero-engine and comparisons with other methods.

How does canceling ST affect firm value and stock price

ZHANG Yao-jie, LI Jie-gang, SHI Ben-shan

2020, 29(4):  212-220.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0109

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Taking ST(special treatment)companies in the years between 2004 and 2015 as the research sample, this paper explores the effect of canceling ST on firm value and stock price by using the methods of event study and difference-in-differences model. The empirical results show that the announcement of canceling ST could result in a significantly positive abnormal return. Moreover, part of the information content of canceling ST can be expected beforehand by the market and the stock prices would immediately react to the information, which suggests that China's stock market is a semi-strong-form efficient market. In addition, the empirical results of difference-in-differences model show that canceling ST has little significant effect on firm value. However, in particular, the event of canceling ST can significantly increase firms' market values as well as book values. These results are basically in line with the policy expectations of ST system. In order to alleviate the endogeneity problem, this study further includes control variables into the difference-in-differences model and employs the method of propensity score matching. Consequently, the empirical results are robust.

Comparison Analysis between Call Option Contracts and Put Option Contracts

HU Zhong-quan, TIAN Jun, FENG Geng-zhong

2020, 29(4):  221-229.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0110

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In this paper, we make comparisons between call option contracts and put option contracts under the same stochastic market demand condition, which can provide suggestions to decision makers to choose. By modeling and analyzing, we gain the conditions that retailers achieve contracts and their order policies under different option contracts. Meanwhile, we gain the conditions that supply chain achieves coordination under different option contracts. Based on this, we analyze the influence of contract parameters on retailers' and suppliers' profit, respectively and give the scope of application of the two option contracts and the contract choice preferences of both parties. Inaddition, we find a feasible range of contract parameters that the profit of retailers and suppliers is better than their reservation profit and prove that both option contracts can effectively improve the profitability of retailers. Finally, we validate research conclusions bynumerical analysis.

Management Science

Does the Cooperation Innovation Promote Firms' Emission Reduction?

DING Li-Li, YANG Ying, WANG Wei, WANG Zhuo

2020, 29(4):  230-239.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0111

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Since January 1, 2018, the environmental tax has been implemented, and the fixed governing framework has been formed, i.e. carbon trade, environmental tax and carbon subsidy. Three-stage dynamic game models are constructed based on maximum welfare and equilibrium strategies are analyzed with hybrid governing strategies. The results show that: firstly, from the perspective of policies' effect, carbon trade, environmental tax and carbon subsidy can encourage the enterprises to make emission reduction. However, carbon trade and environmental tax have additive effects to decrease products activities. Secondly, from the perspective of carbon reduction innovation, this paper achieves different results. The technology spillover rate has the most important influence. When it is larger than the threshold value, the imperfect cooperation is the best. But the imperfect cooperation is not better than the competitive mode. Hence, carbon price, environmental tax rate, subsidy rate and technology spillover rate are the key factors when the enterprises make decisions about production and emission reduction. The government should pay more attention to the connected effect between product market and emission reduction markets.