Table of Content

25 August 2020, Volume 29 Issue 8

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Research on Regional Differences and Influencing Factors of Technology Transfer Efficiency of Civil-military Integration Enterprises

FANG Wei, ZHENG Li-ming

2020, 29(8):  1-11.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0194

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Under the guidance of the socialist ideological framework of Chinese characteristics in the new era of Xi Jinping, civil-military integration has been promoted as a national strategy. Technology transfer is an important carrier for multi-field, full factor and deep-level docking between civil and military. Technology transfer efficiency directly affects the implementation of the in-depth development strategy of civil-military integration. Based on the data of 45 civil-military integration enterprises in Chinese A-share stock market, from 2012 to 2016, this paper uses the DEA to analyze the regional differences in technology transfer efficiency of civil-military integration enterprises and conduct convergence studies by measuring technology transfer efficiency in different regions. The panel Tobit Model is used to analyze the impact of the six factors that have arisen from four aspects: corporate, government, universities, and the environment on the technology transfer efficiency of civil-military integration enterprises. The research results show that the technology transfer efficiency of civil-military integration enterprises in the past five years fluctuates greatly and interannual & provincial differences are significant. These factors include the scale of the civil-military integration enterprise, the differentiation of its products, the government's investment in science and technology, and the technical market turnover that have a positive effect on technology transfer efficiency. The number of universities and regional GDP have no significant effect on the technology transfer efficiency of civil-military integration enterprises. Finally, this paper provides some managerial implications.

Evolutionary Game Analysis of Internet Car Rental Market

SHAN Er-fang, ZENG Han, CAI Lei

2020, 29(8):  12-19.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0195

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By analyzing the impacts of the advent of the Internet rental car market on traditional car rental market to explore what strategies to avoid vicious competition between the two car rental markets, the static game between Internet car rental and traditional car rental based on Bertrand model is constructed under the condition of cooperation and noncooperation. The results show that the two car rental markets will be trapped into the conflict between individual rationality and collective rationality under the cooperation mode. Therefore, in order to solve this contradiction, the government departments are joined to build a multi-agent cooperation evolutionary game model, the evolutionarily stable strategy of government and two car rental market is derived. And the evolutionary path and evolution results of the model are studied in order to provide reference for government departments to manage the car rental market.

Carbon Emission Reduction Technology Investment Decision Based on Two-SidedMatching-Dynamic Game

LIU Li, ZHANG Zai-sheng, WANG Zhe

2020, 29(8):  20-26.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0196

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Under the Cap-and-Trade system, this paper studies an investment decision-making problem of carbon emission reduction technology(CERT)of duopoly manufacturers(oligo-manufacturer)based on matching-game mechanism, CET is considered. From the vertical perspective, a two-sided matching model between oligo-manufacturers and suppliers who provide heterogeneous CERTs is constructed, realizing the optimal CERT selection for oligo-manufacturers and the best investor selection for suppliers. From the viewpoint of horizontal, a dynamic Stackelberg game model is established, in which the production quantity is regarded as the decision variable, the effort level of the technical research and development(R&D)personnel of the suppliers as the auxiliary variable. We obtain the optimal joint production quantity, CERT investment and carbon emissions decision-makings. Finally, we offer some numerical simulation experiments to demonstrate the above arguments and find that, firstly, the total expected utilities of oligo-manufacturer and supplier matching pairs have positive linear relationship with CET price. Secondly, the environmental performance of oligo-manufacturers is more sensitive to the effectiveness of their own CERT applications than the effectiveness of rival. Lastly, compared with no CET, CET will create more utilities for the oligo-manufacturer and supplier matching pair.

Portfolio Game with Liability Based on the Heston Stochastic Volatility Model

YANG Lu, ZHU Huai-nian, ZHANG Cheng-ke

2020, 29(8):  27-34.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0197

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This paper studies a stochastic differential portfolio game between two investors under the Heston model. The financial market is constituted by a risk-free asset and a risky asset whose price process is subjected to the Heston model. The game is formulated by two utility maximization problems, and each investor tries to maximize his utility of the difference between his terminal wealth and that of his competitor. Firstly, we derive the HJB equations and the corresponding value functions by using the dynamic programming principle. Then, the explicit expressions of equilibrium investment strategies and the value functions for the non-zero game under the framework of the power utility function are received. Finally, the influence of the model parameters on the equilibrium investment strategies and value functions is obtained by numerical simulation. Thus, a certain theory instruction for the actual assets and liabilities management is provided.

Differential Game Models of Low Carbon Reputation Considering Government Participation in Supply Chain

XU Chun-qiu, WANG Qin-peng

2020, 29(8):  35-44.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0198

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In the context of low carbon economy, considering the different ways of government participation, this paper studies the dynamic game problem of medium and long term supply chain cooperation(emission reduction by upstream manufacturers and publicity by downstream retailers)to improve the low carbon reputation of supply chain by differential game. A decentralized decision-making model without government subsidies, a decentralized decision-making model with government subsidies, a centralized decision-making model with government subsidies, and a two-way cost sharing contract model under government intervention are constructed and analyzed. The research shows that in the latter three cases, the supply chain low-carbon reputation, manufacturers' emission reduction efforts and retailers' low-carbon publicity efforts have the same level, and all of them are higher than the situation of non-government subsidies; under government intervention, the government does not need to provide subsidies, but can achieve the effect of subsidies; both the government and manufacturers with higher game status in the supply chain prefer to adopt the two-way cost-sharing contract mode under government intervention, while the retailers with lower game status in the supply chain are more willing to accept the decentralized decision-making mode with government subsidies; The government should take full account of the comparison of enterprise marginal profit in the supply chain when choosing the way of participation. Finally, the models are analyzed by numerical examples.

Repeated Game Model of Supply Chain Governance for Personalized Customization Products Based on E-commerce B2B Platform

JIANG ming, LI Hong-xin, LIU De-hai

2020, 29(8):  45-51.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0199

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The enterprises with personalized customization products often face the dual moral hazard problems in supply chain cooperation. The B2B E-commerce platform provides the effective governance. However, they still face the own governance problems such as the platform demands bribes. The paper uses the repeated game model to analyze the governance structure of supply chain for dual moral hazard problem in personalized customization products, and the incentive problem of e-commerce platform. The results show the two main conclusions. Firstly, the information disclosure of e-commerce platform can effectively avoid the dual moral hazard problems and reach the cooperative relationship. Secondly, the e-commerce enterprise should improve own governance, for example, changing by the information service effect, improving the feedback information for the user, reinforcing the industrial self-discipline to improve the social reputation of e-commerce.

Dynamic Coordination Strategy of Cooperation on Carbon Emission Reduction and Low Carbon Propaganda in Supply Chain under Government Subsidy

WANG Ting-ting, WANG Dao-ping

2020, 29(8):  52-61.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0200

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Based on the differential game theory, a long-term vertical cooperation on carbon emission reduction, low carbon propaganda and the government subsidy issues in a low-carbon supply chain comprised of a manufacturer and a retailer is studied. Considering that the demand is influenced by both the carbon emission reduction and the retailer's low carbon promotion effort, this study establishes Stackelberg differential game models. When the government provides the same subsidy to the supply chain's members in different decisions, the profit-sharing contract is designed to achieve the reasonable distribution of supply chain's profits. Furthermore, the emission reduction cost-sharing contract is designed to realize the Pareto improvement of the supply chain's profits, the government subsidy rates and supply chain's equilibrium strategies are compared and analyzed in three modes. And the interaction between government and supply chain's members is discussed. Finally, the comparative analysis of the model results and the numerical simulation analysis verify the rationality of the conclusions.

Evolution of Enterprise Innovation Strategy Considering Information Visibility and Knowledge Spillovers

HOU Gui-sheng, WANG Yu

2020, 29(8):  62-72.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0201

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Innovation is a critical element of enterprises sustainable development and countries' economic improvement. Knowledge spillovers will occur in the process of R & D, which may have positive impacts on the cooperation construction with partners and adverse effects on the protection of innovation enthusiasm. The decision model has been built considering the information stickiness and the process of R & D. The results show that sticky information is beneficial to curbing the knowledge spillovers from the innovator and guarding against the profit erosion from the “free-rider” in a short time. When all participants invest, they get alliance and gain a new cooperative circle “spillover-absorb-transfer-retrieval”, knowledge internalization capacity, government's subsidy for stimulus for positive collaboration, the positive cooperation offsets the side-effect form information stickiness and hysteresis.

Dynamic Adjusting Method for Grey Emergency Decision Based on Regret Theory

QIAN Li-li, LIU Si-feng, FANG Zhi-geng

2020, 29(8):  73-78.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0202

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The development of emergencies has the characteristics of variability, dynamics and randomness, which requires decision makers to adjust emergency alternatives in time according to the actual situation. In this process, decision makers often show the psychological characteristics of “limited rationality”. In view of the above situation, a decision analysis method based on regret theory is proposed to solve the problem of dynamic adjustment of emergency alternatives under uncertain environment considering the psychological factors of decision makers. Firstly, the generation of adjusting alternatives is described and analyzed on basis of grey numbers. Then, the grey perceived utility matrixes of the adjusting alternatives are constructed concerning the effect, the switching costs and the loss. Moreover, the evolution probability of emergencies in each state is predicted by transition matrix, and the grey overall perceived utility of each adjusting alternative is calculated and ranked. Finally, an example is given to show the feasibility and validity of the method. The results show that the method is close to the reality of decision-making and has strong practicability. It can provide methodological guidance and theoretical support for the adjustment of emergency alternatives.

Decision Model of Rescue Demand in Urban Emergency Based on Accident Evolution and Its Optimization Solution

YANG Feng, YE Chun-ming, CHONG Da-shuang

2020, 29(8):  79-88.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0203

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In view of the demand for emergency relief materials in urban emergencies change along with the evolution of the accident, the demand for emergency rescue material is designed as a Markov decision process, and a dynamic material allocation strategy is proposed to build a decision model for the demand for relief materials, and then the flower pollination algorithm is used for optimizing the model. A case of emergency material allocation in a city proves that the proposed method can give a reasonable rescue demand strategy, which makes the demand of the rescue point lower and the demand change more stable. Compared with particle swarm optimization and firefly algorithm, flower pollination algorithm has faster convergence speed and better solution results.

Analysis of Service Policies with Preference Heterogeneity Customers Based on Queuing System

LI Wu-qiang, NI Guan-qun, XU Xiao-qing

2020, 29(8):  89-97.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0204

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In the queuing system where service providers provide differentiated services to customers with different preferences, the profits are affected by factors such as demand scale and customer type. How to develop a policy to achieve the goal of serving a specific type of customer and obtaining the maximum profits? Based on customer-intensive services in which service time and effectiveness are positively related, this paper studies the scenario where the service provider provides two services for two customers with different preferences on the basis of M/M/1 model, and classifies customers into type 1 and type 2 according to the low and high effects obtained from the preference service. The results show that, ①As the potential customers arriving rate increases, the three basic policies applied to the optimal policy are, in order, the fair policy, the providing of priority service for type 2 customer policy, and the providing of exclusive service only for type 2 customer policy; ②The scope of application of the three basic policies is related to the service selection criteria of the type 1 customers; ③In the policy of providing priority service for certain type customers, the effective arrival rate and service rate are determined by the characteristics of the other type of customers.

System Reliability and the Importance Analysis in Multi-state Protection Systems

DUI Hong-yan, BAI Guang-han

2020, 29(8):  98-104.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0205

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In the protection system, all the components may be attacked. In order to reduce the probability of the attack success, the protective layer of a component has multiple states, and the protection function of the component increases from the complete failure state to the perfect state. This paper analyzes the state change of component protection layer, and studies the mechanism of the system performance change when components are attacked. Then, based on the system structure function, the Birnbaum importance and the integrated importance measures of the protective layer are given respectively. The change and characteristics of the system performance are analyzed when the states of the protective layer change. Considering the state transition rate of the protective layer, the influence of the protection layer on the system performance is analyzed. At last, a helicopter system is used to analyze the influence of the protective layer of different parts on the system performance. The differences between the Birnbaum importance and the integrated importance measures are compared, and the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified.

Predicting for Storage Reliability Based on Improved PSO-BP Neural Network

GONG Hua, LI Zhuo-hua, LIU Hong-tao, HAO Yong-ping

2020, 29(8):  105-111.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0206

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The storage reliability is an important part of quality monitoring in the military reserve. The scientific and accurate prediction of storage reliability is a necessary requirement for the evaluation of the modern military. For the historical storage data, a prediction model of storage reliability is derived based on period and reliability. A prediction method of storage reliability is provided where BP neural network algorithm is optimized by improved particle swarm optimization algorithm based on evolutionary strategy. Data augmentation can improve the quality and quantity of the samples. The improved PSO algorithm can optimize the initial weights and thresholds in BP neural network, and increase the generalization ability. PSO algorithm has better global search ability, and BP neural network has strong local search ability. The proposed algorithm in this paper can avoid precocious phenomena and improve its convergence speed and its prediction accuracy. The prediction results show that the improved-PSO-BP network method proposed in this paper has better prediction performance than PSO-BP and BP neural networks.

Research on Knowledge-Based Recommendation by One-dimensional of Properties and Requirement Matching Based on Vague Sets

ZANG Zhen-chun, CUI Chun-sheng

2020, 29(8):  112-119.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0207

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Beginning with the matching of products properties and user requirements, which is the core of knowledge-based recommendation algorithm in the recommendation system, this paper firstly discusses how to use formal Vague language to describe the user requirements and products properties. Then, a Vague set model of user requirements and products properties are built by user interest model and products characteristic model. In order to get the user requirements and products properties matching calculation, the mature similarity formula in Vague set is used in the process of model fusion. Finally, five registered users and five new movies released in 2019 from iQIYI are extracted to calculate according to the model. The reliable results are got, and at the same time the knowledge base between users and products is made. Therefore, we lay the foundation for the formation of later knowledge recommendation rules.

Pricing Strategies for Closed-loop Supply Chain with Dominant Retailer Considering Fairness Concerns

YAO Feng-min, LIU Shan, HU Xian-wu, TENG Chun-xian

2020, 29(8):  120-127.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0208

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To study the effect of fairness concerns behavior preference on pricing strategy of closed-loop supply chain, the profit decision models were constructed under the different situations of member fairness neutral, manufacturer considering fairness concerns and the manufacturer and retailer considering fairness concerns at the same time. Through the analysis and comparison of equilibrium results, it is found that, with the increase of fairness concerns of supply chain member enterprises, the wholesale price and retail price of new products will increase, but the sales volume of new products and the recycling rate of waste products will decrease. Secondly, the manufacturer's fairness concerns behavior is always beneficial to obtain the maximum profit and economic utility, but it has a negative impact on the profit of dominant retailer and closed-loop supply chain system.

C2M Service Manufacturing Logistics System Structure Model Based on System of SystemsEngineering and Logistics Equilibrium

XU Jian, WU Guo-qiu

2020, 29(8):  128-136.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0209

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C2M service manufacturing is a new business model which is based on C2M(Customer to Manufacture)business model as the customer-oriented and forms from service-oriented manufacturing and production services. C2M manufacturing needs to build reasonable logistics service system, and constructing the logistics system architecture has become the key to the study. Based on system of systems engineering and logistics equilibrium, this paper solves the problem of how to build a logistics system to connect C side(customer)with the M side(manufacturing). On the basis of analyzing the characteristics and resource elements of C2M service manufacturing logistics system, this paper introduces a conceptual model and structural model of that C2M service manufacturing logistic system, using the value function to analyze whether the system state is optimized. This paper discusses the application of the model, which aims to provide support and application reference for the C2M service manufacturing logistics architecture model.

Application Research

Research on the Food Traceability Information Supervision Strategy Based on Consumer Behavior

CAO Yu, LI Qing-song, HU Han-li

2020, 29(8):  137-147.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0210

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Traceability information credibility directly influences food traceability system construction and consumer confidence in food safety. In this paper, based on the consumer behavior theory, the optimal pricing decision model is made in the case of the adulteration and non-adulteration of the source information and the adulterated proportion and the strength of government supervision. The results show whether the consumers purchase high-information or low-information traceability product, the firm chooses to adulterate the traceability information. There are two strategies for the government. Firstly, it strengthens supervision and punishment effort, by forcing firms unable to trace the source information to adulterate. Secondly, it is necessary to improve the level of low traceability information and reduce the difference of the high and low information in order to leave no room for adulteration for the firms. By the high and low level of traceability information impact study in the optimal decision of firms, it is significant that the optimal decision under the low supervision case is affected by the high and low level of traceability information, which is opposite for the high regulation case.

Research on Brand Pricing Model in the context of overseas purchasing

XU Meng, LI Kai

2020, 29(8):  148-157.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0211

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With the increasing volume of overseas purchasing, the low-price threat brought by this kind of purchasing has become an increasingly serious problem for companies selling products in different markets and countries. At the same time, the problem of counterfeiting in the overseas purchasing channel has become more serious. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the product pricing model in the context of overseas purchasing. Previous studies have generally believed that such unauthorized sales will reduce the profits of the company, but it is not. Based on this finding, this study develops apricing model that considers overseas purchasing for companies that sell the same product in two different markets and are facing a threat of low prices. The company sets the price of the two markets, and consumers choose whether to purchase the product from one of the three channels including the overseas purchasing channel. Introduce the optimal price expressions of the two licensed markets, analyze the impact of various parameter changes on the optimal prices, and verify the impact of the optimal prices on consumer demand and total profit. The model analysis shows that some consumer demand in the high-priced market has turned to overseas purchasing channel, and the consumer demand in the low-priced market has also been affected. Under certain conditions, increasing the price of products in the high-priced market can expand the demand of the low-priced market. The angle of overseas purchasing explains the phenomenon that the demand curve is sometimes tilted upwards in reality. In addition, the price gap between the two independent markets has had a positive impact on the sales of the overseas purchasing market, and under certain conditions, increasing the price gap can increase the company's income level. Then, an extreme model and three extended models are discussed. Through the model analysis, the extended pricing models also show the sensitivity analysis results similar to the basic market model. Similarly, the price gap of the two markets will increase sales in the overseas purchasing market. And under certain conditions, the company's profits are higher, increasing the credibility of the conclusion.

Research on Dynamic Project Portfolio Selection Model with Divisibility

YAN Qing-you, WANG Ya-xian, SUN Yi-xin

2020, 29(8):  158-166.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0212

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The dynamic project portfolio selection problem with divisibility is a new research direction, but the six important parameters involved in this problem are uncertain and need to be predicted or estimated, leading to changeable selection results and high risk. Based on this situation, this paper first builds a linearized dynamic divisible project portfolio selection model which is convenient for sensitivity analysis. Then, the paper verifies the advantages of dynamic linear model through comparing the results of dynamic and static models performed by GAMS＼BARON. Finally, the sensitivity coefficients of six uncertain parameters under different percentages are calculated respectively, and the local sensitivity analysis is carried out. The results show that: 1)dynamic project portfolio selection model can not only arrange the old and new projects as a whole but also increase enterprise income; 2)the enterprise should treat the six uncertain parameters differently according to the rank of sensitivity coefficients; 3)the sensitivities and ranks of new project investment and project income will change according to the changes of parameter percentage.

Research on the Differentiation of User Innovation Knowledge Interaction under Different Government Strategies

LI Bai-zhou, ZENG Jing-wei, DONG Heng-min

2020, 29(8):  167-176.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0213

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Knowledge interaction is an important part of user innovation. Based on the knowledge-based view and game theory, this paper considers the incentive role of the government in the interaction between user and enterprise in the process of user innovation, and establishes an evolutionary game model between government, enterprise and user. Then the evolutionary paths of knowledge interaction between enterprise and user when government take different strategies are discussed, and the choice of subject strategy under different constraints is analyzed based on the numerical simulation. The results show that government policy plays an important role in promoting knowledge interaction. When firms interact with users closely, the government tends to adopt support strategies. However, when the interaction between enterprises and users is less than a threshold, government support is the key variable that decides the user's knowledge interaction. When the interaction between enterprises and users is within a certain range, government support does not significantly affect the knowledge interaction behavior between enterprises and users.

Dynamic Financial Early Warning Model Based on Time-Dependent Cox Regression and Empirical Study

LI Hong-xi, SONG Yu

2020, 29(8):  177-185.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0214

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This paper takes SMEs as the research object, from the financial factors such as solvency and profitability, plus the non-financial factors such as corporate governance and macro environment, using the collinearity test and time-dependent Cox regression to construct a dynamic financial early warning model, and with the classic, the Cox model and logit model are compared and analyzed. This study has two features as follows. Firstly, the time-dependent Cox regression model is used to construct a functional relationship between the early warning indicator data and the financial crisis. Using the partial likelihood estimation and Breslow estimator to fit the regression coefficient and the baseline risk intensity respectively, a financial early warning model is constructed to predict the financial crisis probability of the enterprise at each time point in the future. Compared with the traditional Cox model based early warning research, only one-stage cross-sectional data modeling is used. This study considers the impact of dynamic changes of early warning indicators on financial risks, covers more historical information, and achieves the purpose of improving early warning accuracy. Secondly, this study considers the first type of error “crisis enterprises are judged as normal” and the second type of mistakes “normal enterprises are judged as crisis” to cause losses to investors, to measure the “wrong cost” of early warning, with the goal of the lowest cost of error. The early warning threshold between financial normality and financial crisis is introduced to realize the early warning function of the occurrence or failure of financial crisis. By empirical research, the financial early warning model of this study has high precision, especially for financial crisis enterprises, and the correct recognition rate is 78%. Compared with the traditional Cox regression and logit models, crisis companies have higher correct recognition rates and lower error costs. Profitability and corporate governance are the most significant factors affecting corporate financial risk.

Cooperative Driving Modeling and Simulation of SDN Enterprise Based on Cellular Automata

HE Jian-jia, LIU Ju-sheng, LIU Yang

2020, 29(8):  186-191.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0215

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In order to study the complexity of co-driven evolution in SDN enterprises, this paper simulates three states of the nodes alternately and SDN system evolution of cooperation based on cellular automata model firstly. Then it discusses the evolutionary trend of SDN enterprises's behaviors under different driving actions. The simulation results show that when the interaction degree of the supply and demand is greater than threshold, the size of co-driven enterprises will be stable in a certain level. Whenthe execution of multifunctional cooperation and the external power degree are higher, the numbers of business co-enterprises will be more, so as to contribute to constructing a center of cooperation subsystem and the system cooperative platform.

Research on the Share of Freight Volume of Via-Dam Method under the Perspective of Dominance Heterogeneity

ZHAO Xu, YIN Xi-chen, GAO Pan

2020, 29(8):  192-201.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0216

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The dominant rights of the two types of dam-passing methods, such as the crossing-dam road and the navigation building, are led by the cargo owner and the navigation authority. In view of the heterogeneity of the cargo dam master, the utility function of each dam-passing method is first established to analyze the transfer mechanism of the dominant power. Then, based on the principle of passing-dam of navigation buildings, a multi-objective optimization model of freight volume sharing rate is constructed. Finally, taking the Three Gorges Project as an example, the influence of the crossing-dam transportation rate and the ship passing sequence on the sharing rate is discussed, and then the decision-making mechanism for mitigating dam navigation congestion is discussed. The results show that improving the freight sharing of the crossing-dam road can effectively improve the transportation status of the ship and cargo; compared with the crossing-dam transportation rate, and reducing the loading and unloading rate can more effectively improve the freight sharing level of the crossing-dam road. There is a sequence interval between the ship and the dam, enabling the utility of the waterborne cargo to pass the dam through the navigable building or through the crossing-dam to be the same.

Dynamic Incentive Contract for Overconfident Executive with Dismissal Compensation Mechanism

LIU Xin-min, LIN Kang-kang, WANG Lei, ZHENG Run-jia

2020, 29(8):  202-212.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0217

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Considering the principal-agent problem with bilateral moral hazards, this paper introduces dismissal compensation mechanism and executive's overconfidence behavior, and analyzes the impact of agent's overconfidence behavior and the dismissal compensation on the incentive contract by a two-stage dynamic incentive model. This study reveals that there is a U-shape relation between executive's overconfidence and the principal's dismissal tendency, also an inverted U-shape relation between executive's overconfidence and the agent's effort, which means that moderate executive's overconfidence can reduce principal's dismissal tendency and promote their own efforts. By introducing the dismissal mechanism,the compensation can effectively restrain the moral hazard of the principal, reduce the principal's dismissal tendency and increase the agent's effort. Executive's effort in the second phase is lower than that in the first phase, while the principal's dismissal tendency is higher. The compensation mechanisms in the two contract periods interact with each other, which shows that the dismissal compensation in the second phase improves the principal's dismissal tendency in the first phase, and leads to the decline of agent's efforts in the first phase, while the dismissal compensation in the first phase increases the possibility of the executive to remain in office, thus increasing the expected revenues of the executives and the principal in the second phase. The conclusion has a certain theoretical reference value for the reform of executive compensation and the design of long-term incentive contract in Chinese enterprises.

Management Science

The Role of Government in Energy Performance Contracting forBuilding Retrofits —— AnalysisBased on Fuzzy Shapley Value

LIU Hui-min, TAN Ling-hui, HU Meng-yue, QIN Jun-jie, CHU Hai-tao

2020, 29(8):  213-221.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0218

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The distribution of benefits from building energy-saving transformationthrough the model of energy performance contracting is more complex than the traditional model. However, the externality of energy-saving transformation leads to the weak willingness of stakeholders to participate actively, which hinders the development of contract energy management model. Taking Energy Costs Hosting Model as an example, based on the self-interest and profit of stakeholders, this paper uses the method of fuzzy interval Shapley value to establish the energy-saving benefits distribution model of core stakeholders including building owners, energy-saving service companies and financial institutions. Then, it analyzes the externalities of building energy-saving transformation and applies system dynamics to clarify the non-energy-saving benefits(economy, environment and society)produced by energy performance contracting, and forms the positive and negative feedback loop of causality among all stakeholders. Government is brought into the distribution mechanism to construct a new benefits distribution model, which is helpful to improve the comprehensive benefits of the core stakeholders. It is pointed out that the government should not only encourage energy-saving transformation projects in order to achieve the energy-saving goal, but also promote the external environment of building energy-saving transformation.

Dimensions and Scale Development of Implicit Followership of University Research Team Leadership-Based on the Theory of KAQ

WANG Lei

2020, 29(8):  222-232.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0219

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Implicit followership is a new topic in western management. Compared with the existing implicit followership dimension from the west and our country, there is still lack in implicit followership dimension of university research team leader, taking the university as the background at present. Based on the theory of KAQ, this paper summarizes the characteristics of university research team leader implicit followership and puts forward theoretical framework of university research team leader implicit followership. By using the software of SPSS 20.0 and Mplus 7.4, this paper makes an exploratory factor and confirmatory analysis of university research team leader implicit followership. Finally, this paper tests the predictive validity and incremental validity of the scale. The results show that university research team leader implicit followership contains two dimensions, prototype and anti-prototype. Each dimension also includes six sub-dimensions, prototype and anti-prototype of knowledge, ability and quality. Meanwhile, this paper also verifies the scale has excellent criterion and incremental validity. Finally, this paper makes a conclusion, discusses the theory contribution, analyzes the limitation and looks into the future research direction in order to provide university leader development strategies for researchers.

Investigating Allocation of Energy Saving Subsidies in Energy Performance ContractingProjects

ZHANG Wen-jie, YUAN Hong-ping

2020, 29(8):  233-238.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0220

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Energy saving subsidies provided by the government is critical to promoting energy performance contracting(EPC)projects. To optimize resource allocation inEPC projects,this paper developsa principal-agent model to investigate the distribution of energy saving subsidies in EPC projects. The findings show that when the saving subsidies are provided only to the energy user(EU)or the energy service company(ESCO), the optimal energy saving will be affected by the energy subsidies standard. When the saving subsidies are shared by both parties, the optimal energy saving will be not only influenced by the energy subsidies standard, but also determined by the two parties' bargaining capabilities. When the saving subsidies are all provided to the ESCO, the project can achieve the optimal situation for energy savings. Furthermore, when the saving subsidies are all provided to either party in the project, the party receiving the saving subsidies can obtain the optimal energy saving profits.