Table of Content

25 October 2018, Volume 27 Issue 10

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Two-phase Container Slot Allocation for Time-sensitive Cargo

WANG Ting-song, LI Man

2018, 27(10):  1-10.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0223

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In this paper we explore how to allocate container slots with dynamic pricing for time-sensitive cargo. Given the specific requirement of time-sensitive cargo to delivery time, a new pricing pattern is proposed, in which we take the time limit of time-sensitive cargo and port congestion into consideration, and make a correlation between freight charge and delivery time when determining cargo’s freight. This paper develops a two-phase stochastic integer programming model (2PSIPM) to maximize the revenue of shipping company. The solution algorithms are proposed as well, in which chance constrained programming (CCP) method is introduced to solve the model. Finally, a numerical example is presented to test the applicability of the proposed model and solution algorithms, and the result indicates that the proposed pricing pattern for time-sensitive cargo can significantly increase the revenue of a shipping company.

Evaluation of National Storehouse Location with Failure Scenariosof Key Traffic Road

ZHANG Min, HUANG Jun

2018, 27(10):  11-16.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0224

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The important security effect of national storehouse of our country for the emergency material is considered for the problem of emergency resource location. Failure scenarios of key traffic road are defined. The system of evaluation indices is established. The location rationality evaluation of the additional central reserve storehouse is studied in the failure scenario of partial key traffic path against the problem of the present central reserve storehouse in the emergency security. The measure of more indices of input and output is involved in the central reserve storehouse. The data envelope analysis is the predominant method to evaluate the problem of multiple inputs and outputs system. Data envelope analysis and the previous system of evaluation indices are used to evaluate the rationality of the different suggested location program of the additional central reserve storehouse. The validity of the previous method is proved.

Research on the Multi-period Cutting Stock Problem Coordinating with Production Planning

MA Ning, ZHOU Zhi-li, LIU Ya

2018, 27(10):  17-22.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0225

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Cutting stock production is the key stage of raw materials processing, which widely spreads in industrial companies. There is much literature concentrating on single period cutting stock problem. However, cutting stage is part of production plan. An advanced manufacturing plan consists of not only cutting plans but also multi-period production plans. This paper investigates a multi-period cutting stock problem coordinating with production planning. The objective is minimizing total operational cost, including production setup cost, cutting patterns change cost, inventory cost and input rods consumed cost. We first formulate a mixed integer mathematical model, and propose a dynamic based heuristic programming to solve it. Finally we test random instances based on different scenarios, analyzing the effect of cost factor. The average cost is 1.85%, compared with optimal solutions obtained by CPLEX. This indicates the algorithm can obtain near-optimal solutions efficiently.

Integrated Optimization of Electric Vehicle Allocation & Routing forLarge Scale E-Commerce Terminal Logistics Distribution

LI Jie, ZHAO Xu-dong, WANG Yu-xia, CHU Chao-hsien

2018, 27(10):  23-30.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0226

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There is contradiction between vehicle capacity and delivery demand in e-commerce terminal logistics distribution. On the one hand, electric vehicles have limited distribution capacity, which is caused by the constraint of cargo capacity and battery power. On the other hand, a logistics distribution station needs to deliver packages door to door for a large number of consumers, and the distribution task is heavy. Therefore, we develop an integrated optimization model for electric vehicle allocation and routing in e-commerce terminal logistics distribution with the large scale delivery tasks, the limitations of cargo capacity and electric vehicle battery power. In addition, we propose double strategy ant colony algorithm based on near-city list for solving the proposed model. The objective of this model is to minimize the number of vehicles and the shortest path of the electric vehicle. The constraints are the electric vehicle battery power and cargo capacity. It is an extension of a vehicle routing problem with capacity, which belongs to the double capacitated vehicle routing problem. The double strategy ant colony algorithm divides the ant colony search strategy into local search and global search under the constraints of the cargo capacity and battery power. Finally, we test the model and algorithm with 30 real distribution datasets from Alibaba Group Cainiao Company in Shanghai. It proves that the double strategy ant colony algorithm is significantly better than the general ant colony algorithm.

Decision Method for Two-sided Matching Between Personnel andPositions Considering Collaborative Information

KONG De-cai, JIANG Yan-ping

2018, 27(10):  31-37.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0227

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A decision-making method is proposed to solve the two-sided matching problem between personnel and positions considering collaborative information. Firstly, the description of two-sided matching problem between personnel and positions considering collaborative information is given. Then, the personnel satisfaction with positions, the positions satisfaction with individual skills of personnel and collaborative degree among personnel are computed based on the multi-criteria evaluation information given by personnel and positions. And on this basis a multi-objective optimization model is built to maximize the personnel satisfaction, positions satisfaction with individual skills of personnel and the collaborative degree among personnel. Furthermore, given that the model is a 0-1 quadratic integral programming of multi-objective problem and is also a NP-hard problem, a multi-objective discrete differential evolution algorithm is developed to solve it. Finally, a numerical example illustrates the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.

Research on the Optimization Method for AHP Decision Makingwith Incomplete Information

WU Shi-hui, LIU Xiao-dong, LI Zheng-xin, HE Bo

2018, 27(10):  38-48.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0228

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When the AHP method is applied to emergency situations such as warfare and natural disaster, there often exist missing data due to decision time constraint, incomplete information, and limited experience of the decision maker. In this paper, a complete solution based on optimization and analysis of the incomplete judgment matrix (IJM) is proposed. Specifically, some definitions and properties of the IJM are presented firstly, and the basic principles on judging the effectiveness of IJM are studied, based on which a connected graph method is proposed to identify the ineffective IJM. For the ineffective IJM, a method for making the IJM effective is explored by replenishing minimum unknown entries to realize a fully connected graph. When the IJM is effective, the missing data are first filled with unknown variables, and then an optimization model is built to solve the unknown variables based on minimizing the consistent ratio (CR). If the optimization model fails to find the optimum solution, there must exist great inconsistency in the IJM, which means the known entries may have constructed basic loops with great inconsistency. Therefore, the inconsistency adjustment method is proposed by analyzing the basic loops, where the element with greatest inconsistency is identified by comparing the sum total of CR values for all basic loops including the element, and modified by choosing the optimum value in the region[1/9,9]to make the sum total of CR values minimum. Based on the proposed method, a decision-making tool software is developed by Matlab programming. Finally, several examples are used to illustrate and validate the proposed method, and the results obtained by the self-developed software show that it is timely efficient, feasible and effective for IJM decision making problems under emergency situations. Also, comparison studies show that it is more effective than existing methods.

Generalized Multi-intuitionistic Fuzzy Soft Setand Its Application in Multi-attribute Decision Making

JIANG Li-hui, CHEN Hua-you, HUANG Yan

2018, 27(10):  49-55.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0229

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As a new mathematical tool to deal with uncertainty problems, soft set theory makes up for the inadequacy of the parametrization tools of traditional uncertainty theories. In this paper, generalized multi-intuitionistic fuzzy soft set is proposed by combining the generalized fuzzy soft set and multi-intuitionistic fuzzy set. The operations of complement, union, intersection, “and”, “or” are defined on the generalized multi-intuitionistic fuzzy soft sets. The basic properties of generalized multi-intuitionistic fuzzy soft sets are also investigated. In addition, the generalized multi-intuitionistic fuzzy soft set is applied to the multi-attribute decision problems, and the corresponding algorithm is given. The feasibility and validity of this method are illustrated.

Pythagorean Fuzzy Group Decision Making Method Basedon Grey Incidence Analysis and HA Operator

LI Peng, Shen ZHI-jie, CHEN Sheng-nan, CHAI Qing-ze

2018, 27(10):  56-62.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0230

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For the Pythagorean fuzzy group decision problem, a decision method based on Pythagorean fuzzy hybrid aggregation operator is put forward. Firstly, a Pythagorean fuzzy hybrid aggregation operator based on Pythagorean fuzzy information and its algorithm is proposed. Secondly, a method of obtaining criteria location weights based on maximum entropy model is constructed. Meanwhile, an approach to acquiring criteria objective weights is given according to the grey incidence analysis, and a method of determining criteria weights based on Pythagorean fuzzy hybrid aggregation operator is obtained. Pythagorean fuzzy hybrid aggregation operator is utilized to fuse the single decision maker information, Pythagorean fuzzy weighted average operator is used to fuse the expert information, and then according to the scoring function and accuracy function values of Pythagorean fuzzy numbers, a ranking method can be attained. Finally, the validity and feasibility of the method are illustrated by a case study.

Multi-attribute Group Decision Making with Interval Value Basedon Cloud Model and Extension of VIKOR Method for Power GridEnterprise’s Scientific and Technological Development

LI Cun-bin, ZHANG Lei, MA Yuan

2018, 27(10):  63-69.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0231

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State Grid Corporation establishes a strategic goal of “a strong three excellent”, puts the company’s overall development strategy as the cornerstone and is concentrated on researching technology development and evaluation technology. Therefore, it is of both practical and theoretical significance to make full analysis of the company's technology development strategy. A new decision making method based on the cloud model and the VIKOR expansion method is proposed. The method integrates the fuzzy language value into normal cloud model and then the risk is fully evaluated through transforming the cloud rules into interval value. The possibility degree matrix is constructed by the VIKOR extension method to make the decision. The research shows that the method can be more objective and effective for the multi attribute group decision making.

Joint Optimal Replacement and Spare Part Provisioning for Smart Meter

ZHANG XIAO-hong, BAI Zhi-xia, WANG Xiao-wei, HUANG Jing-li, LIN Zhan-fang, GAN Jie

2018, 27(10):  70-75.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0232

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Electric power enterprises are developing towards the digital, information and intelligent directions. It is essential to improve the reliability and availability of smart meter to ensure uninterrupted supply of electricity and accurate power measurement as it is a key component of smart grid operation. The sufficient spare parts inventory of smart meter is the basic guarantee of the immediately installing and replacement. This paper established a smart meter inventory demand forecasting model on the basis of analyzing its fault characteristic and installing requirements. A joint optimization decision model of preventive replacement as well as spare parts inventory policy is developed to obtain optimal management policy with a minimum long-term average operation cost for electric system.

Dynamic Competition Strategy of Supply Chains withNetwork Externality Production

YAN Jin-jiang, GUO Chun-xiang, GONG Hao

2018, 27(10):  76-82.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0233

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The assumption of increasing and decreasing return of scale has a significant impact on profit, price and demand with network externality. First, the network size established by the cost of inputs of differential equations for the network is constructed under dynamic supply-chain models characterized by decentralized and centralized decision-making. By building differential equations for network size, which constitute a function of network investment, supply-chain models are developed. Secondly, to maximize supply-chain profits as a precondition, by solving differential games, the optimal value of policies regarding wholesale production, retail price, and effort rate is obtained. The results demonstrate that, in the first part of the life cycle, price and supply-chain system profit under centralized decision-making situations are lower than those under decentralized decision-making. However, it is found that, as time passes, their price and profit will gradually exceed those of decentralized decision-making, and the gap between them will increase.

Research on Coordination Models Based on the CVaR andthe Supply Chain of the Second Season-end Ordering

LIU Cai-yun, YANG Zhi-lin, YING Song-ting

2018, 27(10):  83-89.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0234

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Using conditional value-at-risk measure criterion, this paper discusses an issue of whether a repurchase contract can coordinate supply chains between a risk-averse retailer and a risk-neutral manufacturer under two production modes. Firstly it discusses how to make a strategy analysis and coordinate the supply chain by using repurchase contract among supply chain members. Then it analyzes some influences on decision-making for a supply chain member, such as delayed supply rate, risk aversion coefficient of retailer, repurchase price, the wholesale price of the two production modes and so on. In conclusion, it shows that whether a repurchase contract with cost-sharing mechanism can coordinate supply chains is related to the degree of the risk aversion for a retailer. Finally, the numerical simulation validates the main conclusion and obtains some managerial implications.

Target Recognition Algorithm Based on Synchronous Fusionof Multiple Pieces of Evidence

ZHOU Li, GUO Wei-zhen, HE Yue-ming

2018, 27(10):  90-96.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0235

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In order to improve the reliability of the fusion results of different types of conflict evidence, a target recognition algorithm based on synchronous fusion of multiple pieces of evidence is proposed. First, by analyzing the conflict among pieces of evidence, applicable conflict measure parameters are selected in the new algorithm. And the weight calculation formulas of evidence and those of the focal element originating from different pieces of evidence based on different parameters are given. Furthermore, according to the new weight of focal element, the local conflict information can be assigned to related focal element. The simulation results show that compared with the existing algorithms, the new algorithm has the advantages of high stability and wide range of application.

Weighted Min-Max Programming Problem Subject toAddition-Min Fuzzy Relation Inequalities

ZHU Tian-xiang, LIN Haitao, YANG Xiao-peng

2018, 27(10):  97-101.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0236

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In this paper, a weighted min-max programming problem subject to addition-min fuzzy relation inequalities system is introduced. A solution idea and method for this fuzzy relationship inequalities system is given. Based on some relevant theorems on resolution, a new algorithm is developed. Finally, the algorithm is applied to numerical example.

Reliability Indices of M/G/1 Repairable Queue with N-Control Policyand Warm Standby Failure

Gao Li-jun, Tang Ying-hui

2018, 27(10):  102-112.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0237

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The M/G/1 repairable queueing system with N-threshold entering-control policy and warm standby failure is studied in this paper. Under such a policy, at most N(1)customers are allowed to enter into the system during warm standby failure times. We use the probability decomposition method and the tool of the Laplace transform, the probability distribution of the first failure time、the unavailability、the expected failure number during a given time interval (0,t] and the probability that the service station is waiting for repairing in the warm standby failure are discussed. Furthermore, we obtain the expressions of these reliability indices under the steady state. Finally, several numerical examples are presented to analyze the sensitivity of the steady-state unavailability and the failure frequency in the second type failure of the service station.

Reliability for Warm Standby Repairable System withUnreliable Server and Switching Failure

LIU Bao-liang, WEN Yan-qing, FENG Yue-jiao

2018, 27(10):  113-117.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0238

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Recently, KUO and KE[Reliability Engineering and System Safety. 2016, 145: 74-82, see reference[11]assume that the repair time of the failure component and that of the failure server are general distribution, and the steady state availability of the three repairable systems are obtained by using supplementary variable method respectively. However, the instantaneous availability is not investigated in reference[11]. In this paper, the instantaneous availability of the model 1 is obtained by using supplementary variable method. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate these results obtained in the paper.

Study on Reliability of Cold Standbys Repairable System with n Identity artsand k Repair Equipment

LIANG Li-dan

2018, 27(10):  118-124.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0239

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Under the assumptions that the lifetime and maintenance time of components follow exponential distribution,all random variables are considered independent of each other. The reliability analysis is obtained to study a kind of cold standby repairable system with n components of the same type and k(kn) repair facilities. After the system model is built, the reliability of cold standby system can be computed and discussed under different k value. Finally, the reliability of different k value can be analysised for n=3.

Application Research

Matching Method for Medical Service Supply and Demand ConsideringBodies’Psychological Behavior Based on Intelligent Platform

CHEN Xi, WANG Juan

2018, 27(10):  125-132.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0240

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Based on intelligent platform, a new medical service model can effectively relieve the problem with which people see the doctor hardly. According to the actual problem of matching medical service supply and demand based on intelligent platform, a method considering psychological behaviors is proposed in this paper. In this method, the aspiration levels of bodies’ and the hesitant and uncertain psychological characteristics are considered. Firstly, the deviation degree of different criteria is calculated by comparing aspiration levels with evaluation information. Then, the satisfaction degree of medical service supplier and demander is calculated. On this basis, a multi-objective optimization model is developed to maximize the satisfaction degree of medical service supplier and demander. By solving the model, the optimal matching results can be obtained. Finally, an example shows the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Research on the Task Scheduling of “Goods to Picker”Order Picking System Based on Logistics AGV

YUAN Rui-ping , WANG Hui-ling, SUN Li-rui, LI Jun-tao

2018, 27(10):  133-138.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0241

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Becouse of its high efficiency and flexibility, the “goods to picker” order picking mode based on logistics AGV has gradually become the developing trend of e-commerce logistics distribution center. Through the analysis of logistics AGV based order picking process in E-commerce logistics distribution center, two kinds of picking modes, synchronous picking and asynchronous picking, are put forward. Then the logistics AGV task scheduling problem is described. Taking the shortest time to complete all tasks as the planning objective, we establish task scheduling models under the two picking modes respectively. In view of the characteristics of AGV based task scheduling problem, coevolutionary genetic algorithm based on coarse-grained model is improved to solve the models. Finally, the effectiveness of the improved coevolutionary genetic algorithm is verified by the comparison with original coevolutionary genetic algorithm. The solving speed and the optimization result under the two picking modes are also compared and results show that simultaneous picking performs better than asynchronous picking.

Construction Project Risk Identification and Assessment Based on IntervalGrey Interval-valued Intuitionistic Uncertain Linguistic Set

LIU Guang-feng, ZHOU Zhi, XU Mao-zeng

2018, 27(10):  139-145.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0242

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According to construction project risk problem with the characteristics of grey, fuzziness and linguistic description, the interval grey interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic set is defined and used to express these characteristics. The construction project risk identification model and assessment model are proposed based on the defined set, multi-attribute group decision making theory and C-OWA operator. We take the Weft Three Road Cross-River Tunnel in Nanjing as a case to verify the proposed models feasible. The research results show that the proposed models can use interval grey degree, interval membership degree, interval non-membership degree and uncertain linguistic variable to express practical construction project information more roundly and veritably. We get more practical risk identification and assessment results, which help project managers to predict key risk factors and risk state more exactly.

Risk Evaluation Method Based on Normal Cloud Model with Application forLarge Aircraft Cooperative Development

WANG He-hua,ZHU Jian-jun,YANG Ping

2018, 27(10):  146-153.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0243

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A new risk evaluation method based on normal cloud is proposed for risk evaluation of large aircraft cooperative development process engineering. Firstly, the definition and properties of normal cloud deviation entropy are researched. Secondly, the model based on cloud deviation entropy is established to calculate the indicators weight. Thirdly, the evaluation method of normal cloud model for multiple kinds of data is proposed. In addition, the technological risk assessment index system of large aircraft, which includes five indicators including process standard and process plan, has been established. Finally, the risk is evaluated based on the suggested method.

Correlation Research between China Volatility Index andShanghai Stock Exchange Traded Fund

HU Ming-zhu, WANG Su-sheng, XU Tong-tong

2018, 27(10):  154-163.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0244

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This paper uses the 1mins high frequency data of China Volatility index (iVIX) and return of Shanghai Stock Exchange Traded Fund (SSE) to study the correlation between them. Nonparametric kernel density estimator and parameter estimation are used to describe the exponential edge distribution. Copula model is tested by K-S method. The research shows that the copula indicates the goodness of fit. Compared with the traditional Kendall and Spearman correlation analysis, the copula model can not only capture the rank correlation between iVIX index and the return of SSE, but also reflects the tail correlation between them. The negative rank correlation shows W-shaped distribution during different holding periods. Through the tail correlation of Copula's probability density function, it shows that the iVIX index and the return of SSE have asymmetric characteristics.

Judgment on Short Term Trends and Portfolio Choices Optimization

HUANG Dong-bin, SUN Hong-wei, ZUO Chuan-chang

2018, 27(10):  164-173.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0245

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This paper aims to devise a method that utilizes the very limited predictability of stock index dynamics and the price fluctuations of individual stocks, such that the available data of technical variables can be employed to add analytical values for portfolio choices optimization. It studies a dynamic portfolio selection approach integrated with short-term trend forecasts both at stock index level using Hurst exponent and that of individual stocks using random forest model. By virtue of the predicted trend of stock index and the marginal return of risk defined, we propose a rule of time window selection while optimizing portfolio choices. Tested with the data in Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index component stocks, as well as in A-stocks, the approach of dynamic portfolio selection considering short-term forecasts at multiple levels and the rules for time window selection, demonstrates that it effectively improves portfolio performance, and therefore contributes as an effective tool for risk management of stock equities.

CEO Age, Corporate Governance and Overseas M&A——an Empirical Evidence of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Markets from 2009 to 2014

LIU Ye, QU Yi-fei, FANG Lei, PEI Dong-xue

2018, 27(10):  174-184.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0246

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Building upon the higher-order theory,principal-agent theory and optimal contract theory,this paper uses the Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies’ overseas M&A data from 2009 to 2014 to demonstrate the relationship between CEO age, and corporate governance that is closely related to CEO and overseas M&A decision. The empirical results show that:(1)Overall,CEO age is negatively related to the enterprise overseas M&A decision,in another word,the older CEO is,the less tendency for overseas M&A it has. Younger CEO is more likely to announce an overseas M&A. In Age GroupⅠ(<=40 years old),there is a significant positive relationship between CEO age and overseas M&A,in another word,in the age group of not more than 40 years old, a young-mature period, younger CEO is more likely to implement an overseas M&A. Middle-aged steady-stage CEO (Age Group Ⅲ,49-55 years of age)is more likely to pursue an overseas M&A as his management experience increases with his age. (2) Regarding corporate governance, there is a positive relationship between ownership concentration and overseas M&A. The higher the ownership concentration is,the bigger the possibility of overseas M&A is. Besides,CEO ownership is negatively related to the overseas M&A decision.

Mabagement Science

Evaluation and Promotion Path of Industry- University-ResearchCollaborative Innovation Efficiency

DONG Feng, SHU Lin, LI Jing-yun, QIAO Jun

2018, 27(10):  185-192.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0247

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Under the background of Industry-University-Research collaborative innovation development, this paper constructs the collaborative innovation efficiency evaluation index system comprising the human input, financial investment, S&T output and economic output. Meanwhile, the SE-SBM model in DEA method is adopted to evaluate the collaborative innovation efficiency in 30 provinces during 2001~2014. The results show that the overall national innovation efficiency is relatively low, with high efficiency in eastern region and low efficiency in central and western region. There are obvious differences in terms of innovation efficiency among different areas. To study the promotion path of Industry-University-Research collaborative innovation efficiency, the SEM model is performed based on Jiangsu’ data and the efficiency value in Jiangsu Province obtained by the SE-SBM model is taken as dependent variable. According to the empirical results, the sequence of the impacts of factor level variables and process level variables on Jiangsu’s collaborative innovation efficiency is listed as: the cooperative relationship, the absorptive capacity of enterprise, the degree of enterprise participation and the degree of University-Research participation.

Improved Binary Distribution Estimation Algorithm for PermutationFlow-Shop Scheduling Problem

PEI Xiao-bing, ZHAO Heng

2018, 27(10):  193-199.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0248

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In this paper, an improved binary estimation distribution algorithm (I-EDA) is proposed to solve the combinatorial optimization problem such as permutation flow-shop scheduling. The algorithm takes binary distribution estimation algorithm as architecture, using NEH heuristic method to generate higher quality initial solution. The position matrix model and the link matrix model are constructed by statistics and sampling of the dominant solution, and the two matrix models are used to generate the offspring by combining the two probabilities. The two new local search mechanisms are proposed: NEH plug-in recombination strategy and location probabilistic exchange method instead of original adjacent exchange algorithm of the binary distribution estimation algorithm to further filter the optimal solution. The simulation results on Reeves suites and comparisons with other algorithms validate its excellent searching ability and efficiency of the proposed algorithm.