Abstract: The external environment is currently characterized by heightened uncertainty. Global economic and trade growth momentum has slowed. The development of enterprises in China has been affected by many unpredictable factors both at home and abroad, and faces enormous risk challenges. Can digital transformation reduce enterprise risk? Existing research has primarily examined this from a single risk perspective, and has found that digital transformation can have a dual impact on enterprise risk. Considering that risks at different levels are not independent of each other, but influence and constrain each other, this paper breaks through the single risk research perspective and analyzes the mitigation mechanism of digital transformation on the integrated risk of enterprises from the perspective of risk portfolio.
First, this paper incorporates five types of key risks, including information risk, operational risk, financial risk, financial risk, and supply chain risk, into the enterprise risk portfolio system, applies multi-compartment principal component analysis to decompose, downgrade, and integrate them to reflect the integrated risk of the enterprise, studies the mitigation mechanism of digital transformation on the integrated risk of the enterprise, and finally obtains the following conclusions of the study: digital transformation reduces an organization’s integrated risk. A moderating effect analysis reveals that the integrated risk reduction effect of digital transformation is more significant for highly innovative firms, highly competitive industries, and firms without internal control deficiencies.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the digital transformation process in the service sector is ahead of the manufacturing sector, with a high degree of digital transformation and greater risk mitigation in the eastern part of China.
Second, based on the integrated risk, this paper introduces technology risk and human resource risk, constructs a new type of integrated risk, and studies the mitigation mechanism of digital transformation on the integrated risk of enterprises. The following research conclusions have been drawn: Although digital transformation can reduce the new integrated risks of enterprises, the fit between the two is poor. The linear correlations between digital transformation and various types of individual risks are characterized by heterogeneity. Through the introduction of machine learning models, it is found that there is a certain nonlinear relationship between digital transformation and new types of integrated risks, and the machine learning integrated model based on the stacking method has the best fitting effect.
Finally, the following management insights are drawn: In the current environment of increased uncertainty and risk, companies should integrate all types of risk into a whole and implement risk portfolio management so that risk information can truly play a decision-support role. Companies need to capitalize on the opportunities for digital transformation by leveraging cohort effects and “learning by doing” approaches to innovation investments and changes in innovation activities. Enterprises in the industrial chain and supply chain should collaborate on the pace of digital transformation, and build a joint risk control mechanism.

Key words: digital transformation, integrated enterprise risk, risk integration, risk mitigation, machine learning

摘要： 在数字化转型背景下,企业如何增强抗风险能力是亟待解决的关键问题。本文创新性地从风险组合视角集成企业综合风险,探讨数字化转型对企业综合风险的影响机理。研究发现:(1)数字化转型能降低企业综合风险;通过调节效应分析发现,高创新企业、高竞争行业和无内部控制缺陷的企业,数字化转型对企业综合风险的减缓效应更显著;通过异质性分析发现,服务业数字化转型进程领先于制造业,东部地区数字化转型程度高且风险减缓作用大;(2)在综合风险基础上添加技术风险和人力资源风险,集成新型综合风险,发现数字化转型虽能降低新型企业综合风险,但两者之间的线性拟合效果差;数字化转型与各类单一风险之间的线性相关关系呈现异质性特点;通过引入机器学习模型,发现数字化转型与新型综合风险之间存在一定的非线性关系,且基于堆叠法的机器学习集成模型的拟合效果最好。该研究成果能优化公司风险治理和促进企业可持续发展。

关键词: 数字化转型, 企业综合风险, 风险集成, 风险减缓, 机器学习