Abstract: An agricultural supply chain decision system consisting of a farmer and a company is studied, where the farmer is a capital-constrained supplier under yield uncertainty. Farmers can apply for an advance payment financing from the company to alleviate financial pressure. In order to study the decision-making and benefits of all parties in the supply chain under the advance payment financing model, this paper constructs the operational decision model under the traditional financing model and the prepayment advance payment model, and analyzes and compares both of them. The research results show that the profit obtained by farmers in bank financing when they have bankruptcy risk is not optimal. In some cases, both parties will obtain greater benefits by adopting advance payment financing. Farmers' optimal decision-making schemes are affected by the harvest annual output factor, bank interest rate and price elasticity coefficient. When the harvest annual output factor is small or the bank interest rate is high, the prepayment financing model can bring more benefits to the farmers. When the harvest annual output factor is low, the financing strategy of farmers has the same impact on the company's profits. When the harvest annual output factor is moderate, the company expects farmers to choose the advance payment financing.

Key words: capital-constrained, yield uncertainty, advance payment financing, stackelberg game model

摘要： 本文分析由一个农户和一个公司组成的农业供应链决策系统,其中农户具有资金约束并且具有产出不确定性,农户为了缓解资金压力可向公司申请预付款融资。为了研究预付款融资模式下供应链各方的决策和收益情况,本文分别构建了传统融资模式和预付款融资模式下的运作决策模型,并将两者进行分析对比。研究结果表明,农户在具有破产风险时采取银行融资获得的利润并非最优,在一定情况下,采取预付款融资双方将获得更大的收益。农户的最优决策方案受到丰收年产出因子、银行利率和价格弹性系数的影响。当丰收年产出因子较小或银行利率较高时,预付款融资模式能给农户带来更多收益。丰收年产出因子较低时,农户的融资策略对公司利润影响相同。在丰收年产出因子适中时,公司更期望农户选择预付款模式。

关键词: 资金约束, 随机产出, 预付款融资, Stackelberg博弈模型