关键词: 特朗普政策, 马歇尔-勒纳条件, Bayesian-VAR

Abstract: Sino-US trade relations have become more and more tense after Trump took office. In the new round of great power game, the RMB exchange rate remains the focus of debate between the two sides. However, the impact of the depreciation of the RMB on the trade balance should also take into account the changes in Marshall-Lerner condition. Based on the traditional definition of the point elasticity, the trade balance equation arc elasticity and the improved point elasticity, and combining the theoretical policy mechanism analysis, this paper calculates the Marshall-Lerner condition. Using the monthly data of 2005.7~2017.12 and the Bayesian-VAR model , we empirically test the impact of the trump’s policies on the bilateral Marshall-Lerner condition between China and the United States.The results find that: (1)Sino-US bilateral Marshall-Lerner condition is established. (2)Trump’s policies of withdrawing from TPP and reducing domestic corporate taxation have a positive impact on Marshall-Lerner condition, while strengthening China’s investment regulation over the US has a negative impact on Marshall-Lerner condition. In the robustness test, withdrawing from TPP and investmentsupervision policies are still valid. (3)The Trump policies have a short-term improvement effect on China’s Marshall-Lerner condition. Under this condition, the short-term depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is conducive to promoting trade surplus but is not sustainable in the long run. The “fair and open” trade policy, which is vigorously promoted by China recently, will effectively improve current accounts, boost economic fundamentals, and maintain long-term stability of the exchange rate.

Key words: trump’s policies, marshall-lerner condition, bayesian-VAR