关键词: 数量经济学, 人口城镇化, 半参数空间滞后, 服务业集聚, 经济增长

Abstract: The existing literature about urbanization generally ignores the problem with the Agglomeration effect of the service industry as well as how economic growth influences the urbanization nonlinearly. According to the situation of China, this paper uses the semi-parametric spatial lag model to explain these two issues empirically. The results are as follows: A, the development of service industry and its spatial spillover effects promote the urbanization significantly. It brings the influence which has even surpassed the industrialization. Agglomeration of the province’s service industry has a promoting effect on the province’s urbanization, and agglomeration of the second industry output has an inhibitory effect on the province’s urbanization. B, economic growth has different effects on urbanization for different regions. Generally,economic growth contributes to the promotion of urbanization, especially in central China and the developed coastal area. However, in some highly developed areas, like Zhejiang, Shanghai and Tianjin,the effect begins to weaken, and even shows itself negatively. C, semi-parametric model of spatial lag works better than the parameter model in goodness of fit. The model effectively elaborates the characteristic of spatial correlation and nonlinear in China’s urbanization phenomenon.

Key words: quantitative economics, urbanization, semi-parametric spatial lag mode, service industry agglomeration, economic growth