选择与评价新产品开发的风险决策研究

doi:10.12005/orms.2015.0092

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文针对企业投资决策者在新产品开发中的风险决策,基于贝叶斯决策理论及其相关研究建立了评估外部情报信息价值的数学模型,探讨投资决策者风险倾向、新产品开发风险投资未来市场需求以及情报费用对投资决策的影响机制,并用于评估新产品开发决策。研究结果有助于理解企业决策者进行新产品开发决策时应考虑的因素和情境,并能够辅助决策。最后,将这一数学模型应用到一家大型高科技企业的案例中。应用案例分析结果表明:本文的研究结论能够为企业开发新产品提供相关的决策依据。

关键词: 风险决策, 情报信息评估, 贝叶斯决策理论, 新产品开发, 市场需求

Abstract: This paper focuses on risk-decision of investment decision makers for new product development. A mathematical model is established for assessing the value of intelligence information based on Bayesian decision theory to explore the impact risk propensity of investment decision makers, the future market demand of the new product and the cost of intelligence information on the influencing mechanism of investment decision-making. The results help investment decision makers to understand factors and situations when new product is developed. Finally, the model is applied to a high-tech enterprise. The application shows that the conclusion of this paper can provide the basis of decision for enterprises.

Key words: risk-decision, intelligence information evaluation, bayesian decision theory, new product development, market demand

中图分类号:

C931

杨雷, 赵九茹. 选择与评价新产品开发的风险决策研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2015, 24(3): 127-133.

YANG Lei, ZHAO Jiu-ru. Research into the Risk Decision-making in Selecting and Evaluating New Product Development[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2015, 24(3): 127-133.

参考文献

[1] Bstieler L. Perceived external uncertainty, new product development, and the timeliness of international product launch: a commentary essay[J]. Journal of Business Research, 2012, 65(9): 1346-1348.
[2] 方炜,孙树栋,刘林奇.企业新产品研发项目成功标准差异性实证分析——基于时间因素的影响[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2006,27(7):126-130.
[3] Roberts R W, Burke J E. 6 NEW products-what made then successful[J]. Research Management, 1974, 17(3): 21-24.
[4] Booz. New products management for the 1980s[M]. Booz, Allen & Hamilton, 1982.
[5] Griffin A, Belliveau P. Drivers of NPD success: the 1997 PDMA report[M]. PDMA, 1997.
[6] Barczak G, Griffin A, Kahn K B. Perspective: trends and drivers of success in NPD practices: results of the 2003 PDMA best practices study^*[J]. Journal of product innovation management, 2009, 26(1): 3-23.
[7] 吕文红,吴祈宗,邵全.证据理论在新产品开发方案可行性评估中的应用[J].运筹与管理,2004,13(5):111-115.
[8] Stonebraker J S. Product-generation transition decision making for bayer’s hemophilia drugs: global capacity expansion under uncertainty with supply-demand Imbalances[J]. Operations Research, 2013, 61(5): 1119-1133.
[9] 王永贵,邢金刚,史有春.对市场导向、顾客资产导向与新产品开发绩效之间关系的探索性研究——基于中国背景的调节效应模型[J].南开管理评论,2008,(3):12-19.
[10] 杨颖,杨善林,胡小建.基于战略一致性的新产品开发项目组合选择[J].系统工程理论实践,2014,34(4):964-970.
[11] 郭迎春.基于贝叶斯风险决策的创新风险管理研究[J].科技管理研究,2012,(15):242-246.
[12] 方琰.情报研究方法对新产品开发决策支持关系的研究[D].浙江大学,2008.
[13] 丁邡,陶星,温乐.首席信息官评估信息服务价值的行为与决策研究[J].中国管理科学,2011,19(5):160-166.
[14] 范晓虹,刘志江.信息服务质量评估刍议[J].图书情报工作,1999,1:11-16.
[15] 何绍华,康斌.信息价值和信息服务价值评价研究[J].图书情报工作,2005,49(5):72-75.
[16] Stigler G J, Friedland C. What can regulators regulate-the case of electricity[J]. JL & Econ., 1962, 5: 1.
[17] Chatterjee S. The method of augmented sampling[J]. Applied Statistics, 1968. 271-274.
[18] Hurley M W, Wallace W A. Expert systems as decision aids for public managers: an assessment of the technology and prototyping as a design strategy[J]. Public Administration Review, 1986. 563-571.
[19] Leidner D E, Elam J J. The impact of executive information systems on organizational design, intelligence, and decision making[J]. Organization Science, 1995, 6(6): 645-664.
[20] 尹成龙,孔凡让.新产品目标设计源及寻找方法探析[J].运筹与管理,2006,14(5):143-149.
[21] Rittenburg T L, Valentine S R, Faircloth J B. An ethical decision-making framework for competitor intelligence gathering[J]. Journal of business ethics, 2007, 70(3): 235-245.
[22] Chao L P, Ishii K. Challenges and methods in the quantification of design errors and solution elements[C]//ASME 2004 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2004: 143-153.
[23] McGonagle J J J, Vella C M. A Case for competitive Intelligence: 90% of the information a company needs to understand its market and competitors and to make key decisions is already public[J]. Revista Inteligência Competitiva, 2012, 2(2).
[24] Bradley R. A unified bayesian decision theory[J]. Theory and Decision, 2007, 63(3): 233-263.
[25] Jiang X, Mahadevan S. Bayesian risk-based decision method for model validation under uncertainty[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2007, 92(6): 707-718.
[26] 周勇,王其藩.基于新产品开发的决策情势分析模型研究[J].管理科学,2006,19(3):18-26.
[27] 曹志广,姚兵,赵明.投资决策中的信息价值分析[J].复旦学报(自然科学版),2004,43(1):126-129.
[28] Stiglitz J E, Grossman S J. Information and competitive price systems[J]. American Economic Review, 1976, 66(2): 246-253.
[29] Hellwig M F. On the aggregation of information in competitive markets[J]. Journal of economic theory, 1980, 22(3): 477-498.
[30] 姜艳萍,潘恩,梁海明.考虑指标期望的新产品开发交叉功能团队成员选择方法 [J].运筹与管理,2013,22(4):204-211.