关键词: 项目组合风险, 风险应对, 质量功能展开, 球形模糊集, 复杂网络

Abstract: Project portfolio management has become an important method for enterprises to realize strategic goals. However, project portfolio risks can reduce the probability of project portfolio success, thus seriously hindering the achievement of the strategical goals. Therefore, enterprises need to choose appropriate risk response strategies to weaken the negative impacts of risks. However, there are fewer studies on project portfolio risk response decisions in the existing literature, and there is an even greater lack of strategy-oriented decision models. In addition, there are multiple relationships among portfolio risks, project portfolios, and strategic goals, which makes risk response decision-making more complex. Hence, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the decision-making model of project portfolio risk response to reduce the negative impacts brought by risks, and thus help enterprises realize strategies successfully.
To solve this problem scientifically, this paper constructs a three-layer network of strategical goals, project portfolios, and risks to qualitatively analyze the relationships among them, builds a two-layer quality house to quantitatively analyze the above relationship, and constructs a risk response strategy selection model to maximize the realization of strategies. First, we analyze the synergistic relationship among strategic goals, the interactive relationship among projects, and the associated relationship among project portfolio risks, and construct a three-layer network of strategical goals, project portfolios, and risks through complex network theory, qualitatively describing the above three relationships.Second, the QFD method is introduced to construct a two-layer quality house based on strategy-oriented project portfolio risk analysis, which realizes the transformation of the above three relationships. The relationships are quantitatively analyzed by SFS.Third, a model of project portfolio risk response strategy selection for maximizing the realization of strategic goals is established. Finally, the practicality of the proposed model is verified and the impact of different risk response budgets on decision-making is analyzed by taking the project portfolio of an enterprise as an example.
This study shows that 1)the level of strategy achievement improves as the risk response budget increases, but the increase gradually decreases; 2)the contribution of the selected risk response strategies to the lowest successful above-average projects increases, and the contribution to the realization of strategic goals with weights greater than the mean tends to increase and then decrease; and 3)the success of the most heavily weighted project in the portfolio is more affected by the response budget changes.
In summary, the strategy-oriented project portfolio risk response strategy selection model proposed in this paper can enrich the existing literature on project risk response strategy selection and provide theoretical and methodological guidance for actual project portfolio risk response decision-making.

Key words: project portfolio risks, risk response, QFD, SFS, complex network