关键词: 新冠病毒肺炎, 演化博弈, 公共卫生突发事件, 疫情防控, 预测

Abstract: Novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic patterns in the world have been seriously divided. Based on China’s novel coronavirus pneumonia prevention and control system mobilization experience, this paper combines the game theory of social public health control measures with the epidemic model, and constructs the evolutionary game model of the major infectious disease epidemic mechanism and scenario prediction. The key role of social mobilization system in the early stage of epidemic prevention and control is described by adding the infection coefficient parameter in the epidemic model with endogenous factors. Finally, the SI model of infection coefficient is used to fit the logistic equation and analyze the peak value of the three anti epidemic models in the United States, Italy and China, and the results are compared. This study shows that in the absence of effective vaccines, the epidemic prevention and control mode of isolation and government information disclosure plays a key role in the prevention and control of new major infectious diseases in China.

Key words: COVID-19, evolutionary game, public health emergencies, epidemic prevention, prediction