关键词: 疫情风险, 供应中断, 双重时效性, 库存控制, 生鲜品, 系统动力学

Abstract: Due to solving the supply interruption caused by the major epidemic, the fresh product inventory level will fluctuate. Under the situation of random changes in market demand, a three-level fresh food supply chain inventory system composed of suppliers, distribution centers and retailers is established. Considering the three risk scenarios caused by the epidemic, the system dynamics model is introduced to simulate the operation of the retailer’s dynamic inventory system. The study finds that: affected by the two sequence parameters of the epidemic risk transmission coefficient and the deterioration rate, the supply chain inventory shows an oscillating trend; by determining the epidemic risk scenarios under different supply interruptions, we propose an optimized fresh-keeping investment strategy, a safety stock strategy, and a joint early transfer strategy for shared inventory. They can effectively reduce the fluctuation of retail inventory levels and make it show a steady trend, realize the double timeliness of the products in the delivery process, match supply and demand, alleviate the impact of epidemic risk, and provide decision support for relevant retail companies.

Key words: epidemic risk, supply disruption, double timeliness, inventory control, fresh products, system dynamics