关键词: 前景理论, 建筑工人, 人岗匹配, 高危岗位, 元胞自动机

Abstract: To study the risk decision-making characteristics of construction workers who choose high-risk posts, a cellular automata model for construction workers’ choosing risky construction posts is built based on the value function of prospect theory for a simulation experiment, then hierarchy regression analysis is carried out on the experiment data acquired. The results show that persons who choose high-risk posts generally have the psychological traits of overestimating returns, underestimating accident losses and probability, and low loss aversion, which is contrary to the post requirements, namely, “person-post matching paradox”. This means that in reality, those who choose to work in high-risk positions are not only prone to overestimate the benefits, but also tend to underestimate the accident probability and loss. However, high-risk jobs require workers to have a stronger sense of risk and a more stable style of behavior to avoid safety risks. The increase of basic salaries may lead more workers, especially workers with diminishing utility with low returns, to choose high-risk posts; and high accident losses, diminishing returns with low loss, loss aversion and sensitization of high probability will prompt workers to choose low-risk posts. Regarding workers’ high-risk post choosing behaviors, there is a complementary effect between loss aversion and probability sensitization, but an substitution effect among loss diminishing and loss aversion and probability sensitization.

Key words: prospect theory, construction workers, person-post matching, high-risk posts, cellular automata