关键词: 突发事件, 风险传递, GERT网络, 供应链

Abstract: Emergencies can have a huge impact on the supply chain operation, and can even break the entire network. For the risk transmission issue of emergencies in the supply chain system, three models are constructed based on the GERT network, including the supply chain normal delivery model, the supply chain deferred delivery model, and the risk transmission model of emergencies. According to the structure of these models, the corresponding mathematical expressions of moment generating functions and transfer functions are derived. Based on the model analysis, a quantitative analysis strategy of risk transmission for emergencies in supply chain is developed. In this strategy, the final delay time for each link is obtained by comparing the solution results of the supply chain normal delivery model and the supply chain deferred delivery model, the extent to which risk accumulated during step by step transmission is described quantificationally by the fitting calculation of the risk transmission model of emergencies. Finally, a numerical example abstracted from an automobile production supply chain is suggested to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed models and approach.

Key words: emergencies, risk transmission, GERT network, supply chain