关键词: 碳减排, Cournot竞争, 异质预期, 复杂性分析

Abstract: As it has become a worldwide concern how to reduce carbon emissions effectively, more and more firms take low-carbon operations into account when producing and selling eco-friendly products. At present, in China, the reform of carbon-emission-trading provides firms with new opportunities to develop the market, which is to study the government carbon quota allocation and enterprise production and emission reduction research and development decision-making problems under the low-carbon environment. This paper will focus on the study of two carbon emission manufacturing firms with limited rationality and heterogeneity expectation in the oligopoly market. From the internal perspective of market complexity evolution, this paper analyzes the internal mechanism of market competition fluctuation, and discusses the influence of different corresponding speed of enterprises on market stability through the nonlinear dynamics theory. The results show that the cost coefficient of technology emission reduction and the preference coefficient of carbon trading price for low-carbon products are the key factors affecting the competitive strategy of the two enterprises. The difference of the two factors will even change the relative investment intensity of emission reduction and the relative profitability and market stability of the two enterprises in the equilibrium state. In addition, the numerical analysis shows that the time-delay feedback control method could control the unstable behavior of the dynamic system efficiently and quickly, and make the market quickly back into a stable and orderly state, which provides a scientific basis for decision makers to effectively solve the market instability.

Key words: carbon reduction, cournot competition, heterogeneous expectations, complexity analysis