关键词: 替代产品, 双渠道, 现金流, 套期保值

Abstract: Due to changes in exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices, together with the complexity of the dual-channel supply chain relationships, a company’s cash flow often features significant volatility. This paper studies the manufacturer's decision to hedge cash flow under the dual-channel sales model. The author focuses on a scenario where a monopoly operates a dual-channel sales model consisting of a distributor and online sales and uses cash flow to increase production efficiency via internal financing. In this scenario,the author studies how this company makes hedging decision considering cash flow fluctuations, market demand, sensitivity for alternative products, and wholesale. The equilibrium problem of manufacturers under the dual-channel sales model is one major part of this paper. Besides, the author compares the equilibrium solutions under the two kinds of decisions and finally gives an intuitive conclusion through numerical analysis: If the maximum market demand and the sensitivity for alternative products increase, companies prefer to choose hedging; However, if the cash flow fluctuations and wholesale prices increase, hedging is out of the companies’ consideration.

Key words: alternative products, dual channels, cash flows, hedge