关键词: 电力可持续转型, 转型效率, 转型潜力, 坏产出动态DEA, 熵权法-TOPSIS

Abstract: Focusing on the sustainable transition of electric power and considering the energy security (desirable output) and the environmental pollution (undesirable output), we collect and organize the transitional data of both provincial structural factor indicators (input-output indicators) and inter-temporal activity variable indicators (policy indicators) from 2009 to 2018 by using the dynamic DEA model of bad output and the entropy method with TOPSIS model. This analysis is aimed at calculating, ranking and optimizing the efficiency, the potential as well as the efficiency-potential space of China’s electric power sustainable transition. The results show that: (1)China’s electric power transition process is still in the stage of relatively slow quantitative change, while the qualitative change inflection point is still unpredictable; (2)With respect to the transition efficiency of China’s electric power sustainable transition, there are still obvious unbalanced-insufficient phenomena among different provinces; (3)As far as the transition potential is concerned, the current transition inducement is not only the guarantee for the transition potential, but also the limit for it.

Key words: sustainable power transition, transition efficiency, transition potential, bad output dynamic DEA, entropy-TOPSIS method