配电设备实时故障风险评估方法

doi:10.12005/orms.2022.0163

运筹与管理 ›› 2022, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (5): 156-161.DOI: 10.12005/orms.2022.0163

配电设备实时故障风险评估方法

马天佚¹, 朱建明², 张驰¹, 杨霖¹, 武岳¹

1.国网北京城区供电公司电力调度控制中心,北京 100035;
2.中国科学院大学工程科学学院,北京 100049

收稿日期:2020-02-04 出版日期:2022-05-25 发布日期:2022-07-20
作者简介:马天佚(1992-),女,江苏丹阳人,工程师,硕士,研究方向:电力系统应急管理;朱建明(1979-),男,山东宁阳人,教授,博士,研究方向:应急管理、运筹学、网络优化。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(72074203,72074202)

Real-time Fault Risk Assessment Method for Power Distribution Equipment

MA Tian-yi¹, ZHU Jian-ming², ZHANG Chi¹, YANG Lin¹, WU Yue¹

1. Power Dispatch Control Center, State Grid Beijing Urban District Power Supply Company, Beijing 100035, China;
2. School of Engineering Science, University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2020-02-04 Online:2022-05-25 Published:2022-07-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 现有配电设备故障风险评估方法在因素分析方面不够全面,未能综合考虑天气等环境因素与设备健康状态因素对设备故障风险的影响,且数据来源主要为长期历史数据,缺乏时效性。为解决此问题,本文提出了一种配电设备实时故障风险评估方法,结合天气状况、设备状态两大因素计算配电设备实时故障概率,通过负荷损失量、停电用户数量、负荷重要等级三个因素评估配电设备故障影响程度,并以设备故障概率和故障影响程度为准则建立风险评估模型。通过IEEE-RBTS BUS2算例分析,证明该模型能够有效评估配电设备实时故障风险,对于电力企业优化设备检修工作,提升应急管理水平具有重要的指导意义。

关键词: 配电设备, 故障, 实时, 风险评估, IEEE-RBTS BUS2

Abstract: The previous fault risk assessments of power distribution equipment are not comprehensive enough in factor analysis, failing to fully consider the impacts of environmental factors such as weather and equipment health status on the risk of equipment fault. Moreover, the data is mainly derived from long-term historical data, which lacks pertinence and timeliness. To solve this, this paper proposes a real-time fault risk assessment method for power distribution equipment. Firstly, the real-time fault probability of power distribution equipment is calculated combining both the weather conditions and equipment status. And then the impacts of faults on distribution equipment are evaluated through three factors: load loss, number of power outages, and load rating. Finally, a risk assessment model is established based on the fault probability and degree of impacts. In this study, the case of IEEE-RBTS BUS2 is analyzed and presented and the results prove that this method can effectively evaluate the real-time fault risk of power distribution equipment. Overall, it provides a new perspective to optimize equipment maintenance and has important significance of improving emergency management for power companies.

Key words: power distribution equipment, fault, real-time, risk assessment, IEEE-RBTS BUS21

中图分类号:

TM743

马天佚, 朱建明, 张驰, 杨霖, 武岳. 配电设备实时故障风险评估方法[J]. 运筹与管理, 2022, 31(5): 156-161.

MA Tian-yi, ZHU Jian-ming, ZHANG Chi, YANG Lin, WU Yue. Real-time Fault Risk Assessment Method for Power Distribution Equipment[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2022, 31(5): 156-161.

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配电设备实时故障风险评估方法

Real-time Fault Risk Assessment Method for Power Distribution Equipment

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